Thursday, February 28, 2013 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

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Re: Thursday, February 28, 2013 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Postby TenPoundHammer » Fri Mar 01, 2013 5:15 pm

This Is Kirk! wrote:
TenPoundHammer wrote:Nice. But I can't say that I've ever seen a T-Mobile ad.


If you live somewhere where T-Mobile has a presence, and you watch any TV at all, you're going to know this girl is in their ads.


That's probably it. We only seem to have Sprint or AT&T in these parts. Unless you live more than a mile inland, in which case there're way too many trees to get anything.

Paucle wrote:1, 2, Kalamazoo. 3, 4, Jersey Shore. 5, 6, West Phoenix. 1,008, 1,009. Dallas, Denver, Anaheim.


Now that ad I heard several times when mom and I were in Cincinnati in November, but I wasn't looking at the TV. (She was watching King of Queens reruns, and I was on the laptop.)

Were Della and the dealer and a dog named Jake involved?
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Re: Thursday, February 28, 2013 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Postby marpocky » Fri Mar 01, 2013 5:15 pm

Sherm wrote:Opus, you're assuming everyone bets smartly. About half of the people on the show don't, and in betting logic in the real world, that should be taken into account.


Wagering theory: one part arithmetic, 2 parts psychology.
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Re: Thursday, February 28, 2013 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Postby Sherm » Fri Mar 01, 2013 5:16 pm

bpmod wrote:
Sherm wrote: and I'm watching this show too often.

You just blew all credibility right there. There is no such thing as watching Jeopardy! too often. :mrgreen:

Brian


With that statement alone, you are a bigger "jeopardy nerd" than myself, and I thank you.
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Re: Thursday, February 28, 2013 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Postby Magna » Fri Mar 01, 2013 5:27 pm

marpocky wrote:
Sherm wrote:Opus, you're assuming everyone bets smartly. About half of the people on the show don't, and in betting logic in the real world, that should be taken into account.


Wagering theory: one part arithmetic, 2 parts psychology.

Plus six percent electricity, four percent evaporation, and two percent butterscotch ripple.
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Re: Thursday, February 28, 2013 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Postby AdamAnt » Fri Mar 01, 2013 5:57 pm

Congrats on another win Sara!

In regards to the T-Mobile clue I'll be honest, I said Progressive...then I remembered they're an insurance company. Oops

I said Pluto for FJ! but I actually wondered if there was more to the answer than that, as if the answer were some planet's moon. Didn't figure it would be as easy as Pluto.
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Re: Thursday, February 28, 2013 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Postby Bamaman » Fri Mar 01, 2013 6:35 pm

AdamAnt wrote:Congrats on another win Sara!

In regards to the T-Mobile clue I'll be honest, I said Progressive...then I remembered they're an insurance company. Oops


I came up with Flo as well.
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Re: Thursday, February 28, 2013 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Postby opusthepenguin » Fri Mar 01, 2013 7:13 pm

Sherm wrote:
opusthepenguin wrote:Twyla's $0 bet was less than ideal. Dean had absolutely no reason to risk falling below Twyla's $8400 on a miss. (The fact that he did so anyway is not entirely beside the point, though. I'll come to that in a bit.) Twyla should have bet as though Dean would make the shutout bet against her. Here were the pre-FJ scores:

Sara: $16,800
Dean: $13,900
Twyla: $8,400

Point 1: Sara's most likely bet is the shutout against Dean--$11,001. (And that in fact is what she bet.) Dean can't beat her if she gets FJ right. If she misses, she goes down to $5,799. So Dean needs to stay above that number for any realistic chance of winning. Any bet that takes him below $5,799 is foolish.

Point 2: Dean can safely make the shutout bet of $2,901 against Twyla. A get puts him out of Twyla's reach while a miss still keeps him ahead of her current score at $10,999. Twyla CANNOT win on a $0 bet against a rational wager by Dean. She needs to get up to $11,000 for a win.

Point 3: Twyla can get up to $11,000 for the win by betting $2,600 and getting FJ right. With this bet, she will almost certainly win as long as both her opponents miss. She can win on a TS or a sole get. That's the best offer she's going to get in her third place position.

Subtlety A: If Twyla loses that $2,600, she drops down to $5,800. That won't beat any rational wager by Dean. But it WILL beat a foolish wager such as the one he made. And--here's the fun part--it will also beat Sara BY ONE DOLLAR if Sara makes the shutout bet and misses. For that reason, I would have advised Sara to bet a dollar less than she did. (For similar reasons, I'd have advised Dean to bet $2,900 rather than $2,901.) If she got it right and Dean doubled his score, she would have tied rather than won outright. But if she missed, and Twyla made the ideal bet and also missed, Sara would tie rather than lose.

Subtlety B: What if Sara hates the category and doesn't make the shutout bet? What will she bet instead? Nothing. Zip. Nada. Twyla has exactly half Sara's score. If Sara bets $0, the most Twyla can do is double her score and tie. If Sara bets $0, all she needs is for Dean to miss FJ and she's a returning (possibly co-) champion. That means it is NOT unreasonable for Twyla to go all in, but it would be unreasonable to go ALMOST all in. This is not a situation where she can leave herself a buck or two on a miss. Bet it all or bet $2,600. I think $2,600 is a better bet, but that's a matter of feel rather than math.

CONCLUSION: Here are the Opus Approved bets for these players along with the grades they get for their actual bets. Deviating from these by even a dollar will reduce their chances, if only a little. Deviating by more than a dollar seriously reduces their chances:

Sara: $11,000 or $0 -- Actual bet - $11,001, Grade - A-
Dean: $2,900 -- Actual bet - $12,500, Grade - F
Twyla: $2,600 or $8,400 -- Actual bet - $0, Grade - D


Opus, you're assuming everyone bets smartly.


No, but I am trying to hedge against that possibility. I think that's worth doing. If I understand things, that's where our difference of opinion lies.


Sherm wrote:About half of the people on the show don't, and in betting logic in the real world, that should be taken into account. Twyla's A bet is 2600. There is little doubt about that. If she gets it right, she beats Dean if he gets it wrong (assuming he bets it right), and it beats Sara if she gets it wrong and bets it right (lock out bet).

What you are missing is really simple from last place. Almost, the only way Twyla is going to win is for the other two players to get it wrong on FJ.


Right. We agree on that part. (Unless you're saying that's part of what I'm missing, but I don't think you are.)


Sherm wrote:If that happens, you have to strongly consider it is going to be a triple stumper, and the way you maximize your dollar from last place, you bet nothing, and hope you will have enough. Someone on here might even be willing to look it up, but I'd be than willing to bet that if first and second place miss on FJ, more often than not, so does third, and its probably at around a 70% rate (2/3rds to 3/4ths of the time thats probably the result).

I think that's a fair argument. I'd definitely be interested in the statistics. Perhaps my grade for Twyla was too harsh. If she wants to appeal her grade, she's welcome to submit her own reasoning and I'll take it under consideration. I think I could see my way clear to a B+ if she reasons as you did. But if I catch her copying your work, it's an automatic F. :)

Out of curiosity, how much do you feel it's worth risking to open up the possibility of winning on a sole get against a rational wager? $2,600 is too much from your perspective. I assume $100 wouldn't be? I'm not sure what my own answer is since it's more than $10,000. It's hard to imagine a similar scenario that would put more than that at risk, so I don't have a feel for how high I'd go.
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Re: Thursday, February 28, 2013 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Postby Leander » Fri Mar 01, 2013 7:15 pm

Flo came to mind first for me too, but I knew it was wrong.

I can't remember a T Mobile ad since Zeta Jones stopped doing them, but I watch most TV via DVR and skip the ads.
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Re: Thursday, February 28, 2013 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Postby CyrusChan » Fri Mar 01, 2013 7:42 pm

For some odd reason that Spain category was awfully easy for me.
And Leon must have been stuck on that guy's mind.
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Re: Thursday, February 28, 2013 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Postby econgator » Fri Mar 01, 2013 10:38 pm

bpmod wrote:
This Is Kirk! wrote:
TenPoundHammer wrote:Nice. But I can't say that I've ever seen a T-Mobile ad.


If you live somewhere where T-Mobile has a presence, and you watch any TV at all, you're going to know this girl is in their ads.

Have to side with TPH on this one. Although I don't live where T-Mobile has a presence (at least I've never seen it advertised around here), almost all of the TV I watch comes from a place that does. And I did not recognize this girl from their ads. I cannot recall ever seeing a T-Mobile ad.

Brian


Ditto, though to be fair, I rarely ever watch a commercial (I either FF through it or watch something else while it's on). I thought KZJ was still the spokeswoman.
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Re: Thursday, February 28, 2013 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Postby Golf » Fri Mar 01, 2013 11:32 pm

TenPoundHammer wrote:Were Della and the dealer and a dog named Jake involved?

Hmm... I don't suppose you went by the handle Kazoo65 on another trivia board some years back? That would actually explain a lot.
Last edited by Golf on Sat Mar 02, 2013 10:34 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Thursday, February 28, 2013 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Postby OrangeSAM » Fri Mar 01, 2013 11:32 pm

bpmod wrote:
OrangeSAM wrote:
Turd Ferguson wrote:Darn, I thought FJ! was going to be about Ilya Bryzgalov.

Good one, T.F.! I hadn't seen those comments before.

Oh, and Brian, how 'bout them Leafs?

How about them? There's no chance they'll be going away any time soon. They are (at least as of today) right in second-to-last place, which is where they've always said they want to be. They must be proud of their endeavour.

Brian

Glass half-empty, Brian?

That next-to-last spot in their division is good enough for a playoff spot if the post-season started now! Just what you need - more Leafs games.
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Re: Thursday, February 28, 2013 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Postby This Is Kirk! » Sat Mar 02, 2013 12:32 am

Leander wrote:Flo came to mind first for me too, but I knew it was wrong.


Yes, because they said she was "cute."

:twisted: Sorry!
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Re: Thursday, February 28, 2013 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Postby ChemTeacher » Sat Mar 02, 2013 2:17 am

It's so funny to think about how certain facts pop into my brain. Specifically, I am referring to the $2000 clue in RHYMING DICTIONARY. The only reason I knew that song was from the series finale of the MTM show, which aired on March 19, 1977 on CBS (when I was seven years old!)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8XAo6U9dD2g#t=12m22s
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Re: Thursday, February 28, 2013 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Postby ElendilPickle » Sat Mar 02, 2013 2:39 am

ChemTeacher wrote:It's so funny to think about how certain facts pop into my brain. Specifically, I am referring to the $2000 clue in RHYMING DICTIONARY. The only reason I knew that song was from the series finale of the MTM show, which aired on March 19, 1977 on CBS (when I was seven years old!)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8XAo6U9dD2g#t=12m22s


That came to mind too - and I was 16. Get off my lawn, you young whippersnapper!
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Re: Thursday, February 28, 2013 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Postby goforthetie » Sat Mar 02, 2013 8:32 am

Fishercat wrote:I wonder how Sara, with her Simpsons inspired tag, felt about missing out on the Monorail (Mono = One ; Rail = Rail) question. Bitey would not have been happy.


Dunno about Sara, but I would have sung my response.
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Re: Thursday, February 28, 2013 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Postby Volante » Sun Mar 03, 2013 7:26 pm

Sherm wrote:
TenPoundHammer wrote:Nice. But I can't say that I've ever seen a T-Mobile ad.


The girl or the bike?

Why can't it be both?

Heck, I think I saw a T-Mobile ad play in the theater before a movie recently. (Probably before Wreck-It Ralph; it had reached also-ran status by that point.)
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Re: Thursday, February 28, 2013 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Postby davey » Sun Mar 03, 2013 9:20 pm

A mercenary fights for those who pay him - a militant, as in the clue, is involved in a cause...
Still, it's a better answer than a reactionary, who is not defined by violence at all.
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Re: Thursday, February 28, 2013 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Postby bmitchelf » Tue Mar 12, 2013 10:50 am

I am probably nitpicking, but I learned in school to refer to action in fictional works as present-tense, which brings be to the TV Villains category. I understand using the past tense in the $800 and $1600 clues because they referred to actors who no longer play those characters. I think the writers dropped the ball at $2000 because it should read: The wife of "The Mentalist" is

Final Jeopardy clue must have assumed that we would forget what happened seven years ago so quickly. Without more context, too hard for Kids Week, but instaget for me and too easy for a regular episode.
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Re: Thursday, February 28, 2013 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Postby Linear Gnome » Tue Mar 12, 2013 11:54 am

bmitchelf wrote:I am probably nitpicking, but I learned in school to refer to action in fictional works as present-tense, which brings be to the TV Villains category. I understand using the past tense in the $800 and $1600 clues because they referred to actors who no longer play those characters. I think the writers dropped the ball at $2000 because it should read: The wife of "The Mentalist" is

Final Jeopardy clue must have assumed that we would forget what happened seven years ago so quickly. Without more context, too hard for Kids Week, but instaget for me and too easy for a regular episode.

Welcome to the board!

I agree that FJ was a bit easy. On the villains questions, without any specific rule to back me up, "was" feels right to me, both because the character is deceased and because the action took place in the past.

Let's say John Doe was mugged last week. Would we say John is a mugging victim or was a mugging victim? I think either construction is defensible, but John probably prefers the past tense.
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