Bamaman wrote:Here's a rundown of the possibilities on the DD bet.
On a side note, I didn't like his or Twila's FJ bets. He should have just bet to cover third and she should have bet it all.
I agree that Dean's FJ bet wasn't the greatest, and I don't think Twyla's was ideal, but I disagree that she should have bet it all. She did have exactly half of Sara's score, but with Dean just behind, I don't see any reason to expect a $0 wager from Sara. Her best wager, in my opinion, would have been $2,600, which could have worked out perfectly in two different ways. If all 3 players miss, Sara has $5,799 after making the MSB, and Twyla has $5,800. A good bet by Dean wins in this case, but as it turned out, he bet big, so Twyla would have been the winner.
Then consider if Dean had wagered $2,901, giving him $16,801 if right, which both covers Twyla's max score and covers the unlikely $0 wager by Sara. If he is wrong, he has $10,999, and what does Twyla have if she bets $2,600 and is right? $11,000, meaning that the $2,600 wager gives her a potential $1 victory on either a sole get or a triple stumper. Since Dean bet big, Twyla's $0 wager essentially served the same purpose as the $2,600 bet, as she wins on a triple stumper, and if either opponent responds correctly, she can't win anyway.