Thursday, February 28, 2013 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

[This Is Kirk!]

Nice. But I can't say that I've ever seen a T-Mobile ad.

If you live somewhere where T-Mobile has a presence, and you watch any TV at all, you're going to know this girl is in their ads.

Another nice win by Sara. Keep it up!

[Fleeboy]

I said incendiary for the other one.

Make it (at least) two for "incendiary". Don't remember the wording of the clue, but I believe they would have had to accept it.

Well done, Sara!

[bpmod]

Nice. But I can't say that I've ever seen a T-Mobile ad.

If you live somewhere where T-Mobile has a presence, and you watch any TV at all, you're going to know this girl is in their ads.

Have to side with TPH on this one. Although I don't live where T-Mobile has a presence (at least I've never seen it advertised around here), almost all of the TV I watch comes from a place that does. And I did not recognize this girl from their ads. I cannot recall ever seeing a T-Mobile ad.

Brian

[Paucle]

I cannot recall ever seeing a T-Mobile ad.

Don't worry, I see enough to cover both yours and TPHs share.
1, 2, Kalamazoo. 3, 4, Jersey Shore. 5, 6, West Phoenix. 1,008, 1,009. Dallas, Denver, Anaheim.
All from memory. And that one hasn't run in months, I don't think.
As for the spokesperson: she's very pretty, but she could stand to eat a cookie or ten.

[This Is Kirk!]

I cannot recall ever seeing a T-Mobile ad.

Don't worry, I see enough to cover both yours and TPHs share.

Interesting. I was starting to think maybe they only advertise heavily on the West Coast.

[Bamaman]

If I have seen ad for them, it did not register with me.

[Sherm]

Nice. But I can't say that I've ever seen a T-Mobile ad.

The girl or the bike?

[Sherm]

On a side note, I didn't like his or Twila's FJ bets. He should have just bet to cover third and she should have bet it all.

She shouldn't bet it all. On a triple stumper with her method she advances, with your method she doesn't. As someone else has pointed out she should have bet anywhere from 0 to 2600, and hope that Dean bets it wrong, which he did. Her zero bet is a solid play. The only way she is moving on is with the other two getting it wrong. If the other two get it wrong, there is a very possible chance the FJ is a triple stumper. Zero bet probably even maximizes her winnings.

[Sherm]

For the revolutionary I blurted out Mercenary. Immediate neg or stop tape? Either way I counted it wrong.

Me too, so why don't we both just count it right so I can increase my score for the day?

[bpmod]

Nice. But I can't say that I've ever seen a T-Mobile ad.

The girl or the bike?

There was a bike?

Brian

[Spaceman Spiff]

Nice. But I can't say that I've ever seen a T-Mobile ad.

If you live somewhere where T-Mobile has a presence, and you watch any TV at all, you're going to know this girl is in their ads.

Have to side with TPH on this one. Although I don't live where T-Mobile has a presence (at least I've never seen it advertised around here), almost all of the TV I watch comes from a place that does. And I did not recognize this girl from their ads. I cannot recall ever seeing a T-Mobile ad.

Brian

You should have recognized her - she's from Toronto!

[bpmod]

You should have recognized her - she's from Toronto!

Yeah. Her and two million others.

I never even venture in that direction any more. I used to spend a fair amount of time there, but now it's just a hassle.

Brian

[Sherm]

Nice. But I can't say that I've ever seen a T-Mobile ad.

The girl or the bike?

There was a bike?

Brian

There is, but the girl was kinda in the way.

[dhkendall]

You should have recognized her - she's from Toronto!

Yeah. Her and two million others.

I never even venture in that direction any more. I used to spend a fair amount of time there, but now it's just a hassle.

Brian

If you got an audition invite, however ...

(I seem to recall we both chose the Big Smoke, although it doesn't look like I'll be going this year, so I hope you at least do!)

[bpmod]

You should have recognized her - she's from Toronto!

Yeah. Her and two million others.

I never even venture in that direction any more. I used to spend a fair amount of time there, but now it's just a hassle.

Brian

If you got an audition invite, however ...

(I seem to recall we both chose the Big Smoke, although it doesn't look like I'll be going this year, so I hope you at least do!)

I don't expect I'll be going this year, either. I hope we both do, though.

And, yes, for that, I'd go anywhere.

Brian

[opusthepenguin]

On a side note, I didn't like his or Twila's FJ bets. He should have just bet to cover third and she should have bet it all.

She shouldn't bet it all. On a triple stumper with her method she advances, with your method she doesn't. As someone else has pointed out she should have bet anywhere from 0 to 2600, and hope that Dean bets it wrong, which he did. Her zero bet is a solid play. The only way she is moving on is with the other two getting it wrong. If the other two get it wrong, there is a very possible chance the FJ is a triple stumper. Zero bet probably even maximizes her winnings.

Twyla's $0 bet was less than ideal. Dean had absolutely no reason to risk falling below Twyla's $8400 on a miss. (The fact that he did so anyway is not entirely beside the point, though. I'll come to that in a bit.) Twyla should have bet as though Dean would make the shutout bet against her. Here were the pre-FJ scores:

Sara: $16,800
Dean: $13,900
Twyla: $8,400

Point 1: Sara's most likely bet is the shutout against Dean--$11,001. (And that in fact is what she bet.) Dean can't beat her if she gets FJ right. If she misses, she goes down to $5,799. So Dean needs to stay above that number for any realistic chance of winning. Any bet that takes him below $5,799 is foolish.

Point 2: Dean can safely make the shutout bet of $2,901 against Twyla. A get puts him out of Twyla's reach while a miss still keeps him ahead of her current score at $10,999. Twyla CANNOT win on a $0 bet against a rational wager by Dean. She needs to get up to $11,000 for a win.

Point 3: Twyla can get up to $11,000 for the win by betting $2,600 and getting FJ right. With this bet, she will almost certainly win as long as both her opponents miss. She can win on a TS or a sole get. That's the best offer she's going to get in her third place position.

Subtlety A: If Twyla loses that $2,600, she drops down to $5,800. That won't beat any rational wager by Dean. But it WILL beat a foolish wager such as the one he made. And--here's the fun part--it will also beat Sara BY ONE DOLLAR if Sara makes the shutout bet and misses. For that reason, I would have advised Sara to bet a dollar less than she did. (For similar reasons, I'd have advised Dean to bet $2,900 rather than $2,901.) If she got it right and Dean doubled his score, she would have tied rather than won outright. But if she missed, and Twyla made the ideal bet and also missed, Sara would tie rather than lose.

Subtlety B: What if Sara hates the category and doesn't make the shutout bet? What will she bet instead? Nothing. Zip. Nada. Twyla has exactly half Sara's score. If Sara bets $0, the most Twyla can do is double her score and tie. If Sara bets $0, all she needs is for Dean to miss FJ and she's a returning (possibly co-) champion. That means it is NOT unreasonable for Twyla to go all in, but it would be unreasonable to go ALMOST all in. This is not a situation where she can leave herself a buck or two on a miss. Bet it all or bet $2,600. I think $2,600 is a better bet, but that's a matter of feel rather than math.

CONCLUSION: Here are the Opus Approved bets for these players along with the grades they get for their actual bets. Deviating from these by even a dollar will reduce their chances, if only a little. Deviating by more than a dollar seriously reduces their chances:

Sara: $11,000 or $0 -- Actual bet - $11,001, Grade - A-
Dean: $2,900 -- Actual bet - $12,500, Grade - F
Twyla: $2,600 or $8,400 -- Actual bet - $0, Grade - D

[WJMorris3]

The funny thing? If Sara buys drop insurance by wagering $2001 on the first Daily Double? Then the debate on whether Dean should have taken the big drop is moot, as he CAN'T take the big drop.

[Bamaman]

I think the $2,600 bet is probably better than going all in.

If she bets it all, she wins on sole solve or if Sara bets zero and Drew is wrong. If she is wrong, she comes in last no matter what the others do.

If she bets $2,600, she beats Sara if Sara makes the MSB and is wrong. She beats Drew if he makes the MSB and he is wrong and she is right. So she wins on a sole solve and wins on a TS if Drew bets big.

I think a big bet by second place is much more likely than the leader betting zero. Plus it keeps her in the game if she is wrong.

A zero bet does beat Sara if she misses, but beats Drew only if he makes the big bet.

[Sherm]

On a side note, I didn't like his or Twila's FJ bets. He should have just bet to cover third and she should have bet it all.

She shouldn't bet it all. On a triple stumper with her method she advances, with your method she doesn't. As someone else has pointed out she should have bet anywhere from 0 to 2600, and hope that Dean bets it wrong, which he did. Her zero bet is a solid play. The only way she is moving on is with the other two getting it wrong. If the other two get it wrong, there is a very possible chance the FJ is a triple stumper. Zero bet probably even maximizes her winnings.

Twyla's $0 bet was less than ideal. Dean had absolutely no reason to risk falling below Twyla's $8400 on a miss. (The fact that he did so anyway is not entirely beside the point, though. I'll come to that in a bit.) Twyla should have bet as though Dean would make the shutout bet against her. Here were the pre-FJ scores:

Sara: $16,800
Dean: $13,900
Twyla: $8,400

Point 1: Sara's most likely bet is the shutout against Dean--$11,001. (And that in fact is what she bet.) Dean can't beat her if she gets FJ right. If she misses, she goes down to $5,799. So Dean needs to stay above that number for any realistic chance of winning. Any bet that takes him below $5,799 is foolish.

Point 2: Dean can safely make the shutout bet of $2,901 against Twyla. A get puts him out of Twyla's reach while a miss still keeps him ahead of her current score at $10,999. Twyla CANNOT win on a $0 bet against a rational wager by Dean. She needs to get up to $11,000 for a win.

Point 3: Twyla can get up to $11,000 for the win by betting $2,600 and getting FJ right. With this bet, she will almost certainly win as long as both her opponents miss. She can win on a TS or a sole get. That's the best offer she's going to get in her third place position.

Subtlety A: If Twyla loses that $2,600, she drops down to $5,800. That won't beat any rational wager by Dean. But it WILL beat a foolish wager such as the one he made. And--here's the fun part--it will also beat Sara BY ONE DOLLAR if Sara makes the shutout bet and misses. For that reason, I would have advised Sara to bet a dollar less than she did. (For similar reasons, I'd have advised Dean to bet $2,900 rather than $2,901.) If she got it right and Dean doubled his score, she would have tied rather than won outright. But if she missed, and Twyla made the ideal bet and also missed, Sara would tie rather than lose.

Subtlety B: What if Sara hates the category and doesn't make the shutout bet? What will she bet instead? Nothing. Zip. Nada. Twyla has exactly half Sara's score. If Sara bets $0, the most Twyla can do is double her score and tie. If Sara bets $0, all she needs is for Dean to miss FJ and she's a returning (possibly co-) champion. That means it is NOT unreasonable for Twyla to go all in, but it would be unreasonable to go ALMOST all in. This is not a situation where she can leave herself a buck or two on a miss. Bet it all or bet $2,600. I think $2,600 is a better bet, but that's a matter of feel rather than math.

CONCLUSION: Here are the Opus Approved bets for these players along with the grades they get for their actual bets. Deviating from these by even a dollar will reduce their chances, if only a little. Deviating by more than a dollar seriously reduces their chances:

Sara: $11,000 or $0 -- Actual bet - $11,001, Grade - A-
Dean: $2,900 -- Actual bet - $12,500, Grade - F
Twyla: $2,600 or $8,400 -- Actual bet - $0, Grade - D

Opus, you're assuming everyone bets smartly. About half of the people on the show don't, and in betting logic in the real world, that should be taken into account. Twyla's A bet is 2600. There is little doubt about that. If she gets it right, she beats Dean if he gets it wrong (assuming he bets it right), and it beats Sara if she gets it wrong and bets it right (lock out bet).

What you are missing is really simple from last place. Almost, the only way Twyla is going to win is for the other two players to get it wrong on FJ. If that happens, you have to strongly consider it is going to be a triple stumper, and the way you maximize your dollar from last place, you bet nothing, and hope you will have enough. Someone on here might even be willing to look it up, but I'd be than willing to bet that if first and second place miss on FJ, more often than not, so does third, and its probably at around a 70% rate (2/3rds to 3/4ths of the time thats probably the result).

Look at your numbers, on a triple stumper last night. Your two ideal bets, 2600 (she wins) 8400 (she loses) and your grade D bet (she wins, with the highest amount she could have won.)

I'm a numbers freak (BTW, I love the betting comentary of seaborgium and yourself), and I'm watching this show too often. I immediately said 8000 on the last daily double (to me, that has jeopardy nerd written all over it), and I'm also looking at the final scores nightly, figuring out what I would do in their spot. Last night for her 2600 or zero (8400 only comes into play if she really likes the category), and I was leaning toward zero, just based on his DD bet. He's already shown he didn't understand the logic of betting properly on the last DD.

[bpmod]

and I'm watching this show too often.

You just blew all credibility right there. There is no such thing as watching Jeopardy! too often.

Brian