I'll put it in "my" thread to avoid hijacking theirs, and I'll put it in a spoiler just in case someone hasn't watched Friday's game yet.
Spoiler
The scores going into FJ on Friday were Drew 15200, Mike 11800, and Yellowlees 10200. My strategy would have led to starting with a 5000 bet (note that Drew finished with 6799 and this would give me 6800) but reducing it to 1599 to stay ahead of Yellowlees if she decides not to bet anything. Mike and I (with the same score, coincidentally) can win either if everyone gets it wrong or if leader is wrong and everyone else gets it right, but we can't cater to both, and these are the only* scenarios in which our wager matters. The advantage of Mike's bet is that you're betting on yourself, everyone understands it, and you win more money if you're right. The advantage of my bet is that, historically, the triple stumper comes up much more often than the single miss by leader (reinforced by the fact that literature is not a strong category for me).
*Dylan's offering the tie on Tuesday complicates things, but that's such a low frequency occurrence that it can't practically be factored in.
What's sort of sad is, if you lose by betting more than what would have worked out, everyone shrugs their shoulders and says "unlucky". But, in many people's minds, I will forever be the middle-aged lady who lost because I was afraid to bet enough to win. Still, in the alternate universe in which I bet more and lost on a triple stumper, I would have never forgiven myself for not giving myself my best chances of winning.
But my favorite alternate universe is the one in which I made the bet I did and FJ was a triple stumper.
*Dylan's offering the tie on Tuesday complicates things, but that's such a low frequency occurrence that it can't practically be factored in.
What's sort of sad is, if you lose by betting more than what would have worked out, everyone shrugs their shoulders and says "unlucky". But, in many people's minds, I will forever be the middle-aged lady who lost because I was afraid to bet enough to win. Still, in the alternate universe in which I bet more and lost on a triple stumper, I would have never forgiven myself for not giving myself my best chances of winning.
But my favorite alternate universe is the one in which I made the bet I did and FJ was a triple stumper.