Tuesday, March 5, 2013 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

[TenPoundHammer]

Suricata suricatta is also their scientific name. They also do that standing upright behavior a lot, if you've ever seen them at a zoo.

I've been to two zoos, but I don't think either had meerkats. As a bit of an animal lover, I know what meerkats do. The Pokémon Watchog seems based on a mix of a meerkat and a prairie dog.

I pointed out that since I found it really weird that they listed it in the dictionary under its far less common name.

[southsidehitman]

I wonder how many re-dubs Alex had to take during filming Dylan's episodes because he mispronounced the name!

I think he mispronounced my last name at least once (although that doesn't come up as much as the first name in the game), so he probably only re-dubs when he misreads a clue.

They do put some effort into making sure Johnny Gilbert gets it right, though.

I knew they regularly re-dub clues and categories (went to a taping a couple weeks ago where they had to briefly stop tape because Alex completely mis-read a category altogether), but wasn't sure about names or other flubs. I figured Johnny has to get everything right - gotta leave a good first impression!

[ComingUpMilhouse]

Glad to know I wasn't the only one a tad annoyed by the pronunciation of Dylan's name. First time I've ever heard it pronounced that way.

Something felt off about today's show...or maybe it's just because I answered maybe about 8-10 right on tonight's show. The contestants were average, nobody overly exciting. I personally would've loved to see a bit more enthusiasm and livelyness in the contestants' responses, add a bit more colour.

It seems to be a trend this week that the contestants are making their DD bets lower in value than what the clue would normally be worth. I always play along betting at least the clue's original value but then again I'm a Jeopardy! noob and there are probably different strategies to DDs that allow/require betting under the original value.

I suppose it might make sense if it were a category that were really weak for you and you were just trying to make sure an opponent couldn't get the DD and bet big (especially if you thought they might be strong in the category).

[skullturf]

I got murdered on the starts with clothing category (Hubby either ran or almost ran it), ran the stephen king cat and I think one other in J!

Thank you Kill Bill for the Instaget for Black Mamba.

Ilene's bet was weird, but I suppose a sort of calculated risk - she had presumably seen the triple stumper from the previous day and took a chance on winning that way (or on a sole get). Had Dylan gotten it right, it didn't really matter what Ilene did, so she probably figured that the difference between second and third if everyone had it was minimal, but if everyone missed it, she wanted to give herself a chance to hold on. Unfortunately for her, the end result was right in the middle of that. I wonder how often the third-place contestant going into FJ wins when they're not the only one with the right answer. Almost never, I imagine.

Interesting theory. I can see the math instructor following that line of logic. I continue to be boggled by the DD betting this week--I may just be paying attention more now that I've learned some wagering theory from hanging out here.

I agree that none of the contestants exactly seemed like ToC potential based on today's play. (now watch Drew go on a 5+ game tear...)

Oh, and I was overly tickled By the answer of Moe Green for Bugsy Siegel. Mario Puzo would be so proud...

Lucy's been waiting for four months to do her 'splainin'. (This week's games were taped on Oct. 29, before the Anna Karenina movie came out, incidentally.)

The only scenarios in which my bet matters are what the J! Archive calls Triple Stumper (TS) and Single Miss By Leader (SMBL). I don't claim I knew this at the time, but, out of the scenarios in which the leader misses, the TS is, by far, the most common, and SMBL is the least common most seasons. Since literature is not one of my stronger categories, I decided to make the largest bet I could that would win on a TS. (Interestingly, since Dylan offered a tie, we would have been co-champions on a TS.)

Running through the other scenarios, I recognized that I wasn't covering a double by Drew, but the betting had been so conservative throughout the game that it really caught me by surprise.

I've had lots of time to think about this, and I still think I gave myself my best chance of winning the game. (I understand that the expected value calculations are more complicated, but my utility function had a high premium on winning the game.)

Once I got over the initial shock and the would've-could've-should've's (e.g., it would have only taken 600 more dollars to close my "donut hole"), I made peace with the situation and I honestly have no regrets.

I'll probably add more later.

I finally "get" your username. Congrats for making it on the show, from another math person.

[Linear Gnome]

I finally "get" your username. Congrats for making it on the show, from another math person.

Thanks for noticing! The whole experience was bucket-list awesome.

[MarkBarrett]

Yes, thank you Alex and Dylan for explaining the name. Viewers wanted to know.

It was no major spoiler thank goodness, but being on the SKnews mailing list had this in my inbox earlier today: Tonight's episode of Jeopardy will feature a complete board of questions related to Stephen and his body of work.

Running the category was no challenge. Dylan and Drew each had two right to divide the loyalties, but edge to Dylan since Drew missed the DD. I wasn't furious since my car model knowledge is lacking in so many other areas.

Yes, (Moe) Greene guessed for (Benjamin) Bugsy Siegel was hilarious assuming that's where the thought was going. What made me laugh more was tenement for Mrs. O'Leary's cow accident locale. It was short lived as my mind had me guessing Postal Worker instead of Ranger for the Denver fire for some reason.

I don't want to waste two poll slots to ask at the end of the week, so I'll ask here: Mitt or Glove? Mitt for me. And save the political stuff as November is long past.

Yes, Alex spoiling yesterday's FJ clue is no fun for those watching tonight, but behind on yesterday's game. Any Georgians watching who missed last night and wanted to scream at Alex for the direct attack?

I would have had it anyway, but the Morocco DD tied into the water borders was timely since the introduction to the new Bob Harris book had a map and discussion of the area.

Since it's such an easy clue I won't worry about spoiling it from yesterday. I was disappointed that Dylan didn't get rook tonight to make it a two-peat.

Classic Novels for a category is one where I'm hopeful there will be something key to aid me since the odds of my having read it (Animal Farm) are extremely small. Like Alex said Train/character was the way to go. I know little about the Tolstoy work, but I know that much with or without having had to suffer through the trailer for the movie four different times in 2012.

Yes, Reddpen you were right Dylan was a one-time champ. He played better today, so that was good enough for me to feel justified in my comments even though he found no DDs this time.

[southsidehitman]

I wonder how many re-dubs Alex had to take during filming Dylan's episodes because he mispronounced the name!

I cleaned up fairly well tonight (37-4-19 for 24000) but then crapped the bed in FJ. Never read Anna Karenina, and I was stuck on thinking possibly a work by Poe but nothing I've read of his rang any bells re: trains.

Maybe this has been offered before, but I feel like a contestant in second place is more prone to forgetting that in addition to accounting for the first-place cover wager, s/he needs to remember to cover the third-place wager as well. I always make a theoretical wager based on where I stand in relation to the day's contestants, and I even forget that there are sometimes two factors to consider.

This situation is known as Stratton's Dilemma on the J! Archive. I'm damned if I do or I'm damned if I don't, and I have to guess which. If I bet enough to shut out Drew, I give up the win on the triple stumper.

Incidentally, about half of what I know about Anna Karenina was used on this FJ.

Sitting on the sidelines, I'm sure I'd wager presuming that I'm going to knock FJ out of the park - but I'm sure there are plenty like me who, when the time comes, hedge more than a little for whatever reason (category uncertainty, nerves, etc.) so honestly I don't know how I'd wager in that situation. I was surprised that Drew wagered like he did, though, with how conservative he wagered with his DDs. Even in the best projections, you can't predict that.

[seaborgium]

I found you root-worthy right away, Linear Gnome. I don't know what it was, but I immediately decided I wanted you to win.

In the Monty Hall problem, you have a better chance of victory if you change your choice, but I think there's more "heartbreak" when a player loses after switching, with the knowledge that the initial choice turned out to be correct. I think we can connect to the fact that while a cover wager sometimes doesn't give you the best chance of victory in J!, there is more "heartbreak" in losing when a larger wager would have won.

Did Dylan's choice not to make a cover wager in the previous game figure into your calculations? I might have been tempted to go huge and hope that he would underwager.

[opusthepenguin]

So I shouldn't be surprised when Ilene throws away a victory with a worthless FJ wager.

The way I look at it, Ilene's bet was fine. Things just didn't break her way. Here were the pre-FJ scores:

Dylan $16200
Drew $8500
Ilene $11800

Here are two questions relevant to Ilene's situation:

a) How much will Dylan have left on a miss if he makes the shutout bet against Ilene? - $8799
b) How much will Ilene have left on a miss if she makes the shutout bet against Drew? - $6,599

Conclusion: If Ilene makes the shutout bet against Drew, she can't win on a miss, even if Drew misses too. It's not inherently stupid for her to look at the category and decide that it makes more sense to bet on Drew missing (or making a small wager) than to bet on herself getting it right. We all have weaker areas. Maybe CLASSIC NOVELS is one of hers.

If that's the situation, Ilene wants to make a bet that does three things:

1) Her wager should preserve her ability to win on a miss, because she judges herself likely to miss.
2) Her wager should not drop her down below Drew's current score. She wants to force Drew to get it right for a win.
3) Within those restrictions, her wager should gain her as much as possible on a get. That way, if she and Drew both get FJ right, she has maximized her chance of finishing ahead of him. The odds of Drew making a conservative bet are fairly slim. But this part of the strategy isn't about what's likely. It's about squeezing every last statistical advantage possible in case something UNlikely occurs.

Does that seem like something a reasonable person could shoot for? If so, what bet should that reasonable person place in this situation? Figure it out before you look. No cheating.

Spoiler

$3,000. Which is exactly the amount Ilene wagered. If she misses, she still has $8,800--a dollar more than what Dylan will have if he made the shutout bet. (As things turned out, Dylan made the shutout-tie bet and would have been a co-champion.) Is it a coincidence that Ilene made exactly the bet that would have been placed by a contestant who hated the category and had a sophisticated understanding of wagering? Yeah, probably. But at most, that might mean she placed a good bet for a dumb reason. Until I hear what that dumb reason is, I see nothing to criticize.

[bpmod]

I don't want to waste two poll slots to ask at the end of the week, so I'll ask here: Mitt or Glove? Mitt for me. And save the political stuff as November is long past.

Glove for me. Could it be a regional thing?

Brian

[Leaper]

I got the FJ despite knowing extremely little about (and never having read) the novel. Lucky guess?

And I was kind of surprised at what counted for $2000 in this game, especially "westernmost country in Europe." I think I actually thought to myself, "they can't mean Portugal, can they? Not at $2K..."

[alamble]

I don't want to waste two poll slots to ask at the end of the week, so I'll ask here: Mitt or Glove? Mitt for me. And save the political stuff as November is long past.

Glove for me. Could it be a regional thing?

Brian

Catchers use mitts. Everyone else uses gloves.

[southsidehitman]

I don't want to waste two poll slots to ask at the end of the week, so I'll ask here: Mitt or Glove? Mitt for me. And save the political stuff as November is long past.

Glove for me. Could it be a regional thing?

Brian

Actually, a mitt and a glove are two different things. A glove is what you see every fielder except the catcher and the first baseman wearing. The catcher and first baseman are the only two who wear (and are allowed to wear) mitts. (I'm a baseball umpire, and this distinction is made very clear in the rule book.)

For J!'s purposes, though, I suspect either would have been acceptable.

[bomtr]

I don't want to waste two poll slots to ask at the end of the week, so I'll ask here: Mitt or Glove? Mitt for me. And save the political stuff as November is long past.

Glove for me. Could it be a regional thing?

Brian

Nah, catchers and first basemen wear mitts; everybody else wear gloves.

Damn, took a deep breath and ended up being third frog at the pond.

[skullturf]

I got the FJ despite knowing extremely little about (and never having read) the novel. Lucky guess?

And I was kind of surprised at what counted for $2000 in this game, especially "westernmost country in Europe." I think I actually thought to myself, "they can't mean Portugal, can they? Not at $2K..."

I did the same thing! My first instinct was Portugal, but I thought "Bottom clue -- it might be tricky!"

Without looking at a map, I know that Portugal doesn't take up the entire west coast of the Iberian peninsula -- there's a part of Spain "above" Portugal. I wouldn't have known, without looking, whether that portion of Spain extends slightly further west than Portugal.

Complicating matters, the clue said something to the effect of being ruled by a dictator until the mid-1970s, and I thought to myself, "That applies to Spain, too, doesn't it?" So I remained clam on that one, and was annoyed when Portugal was correct.

[Linear Gnome]

I found you root-worthy right away, Linear Gnome. I don't know what it was, but I immediately decided I wanted you to win.

In the Monty Hall problem, you have a better chance of victory if you change your choice, but I think there's more "heartbreak" when a player loses after switching, with the knowledge that the initial choice turned out to be correct. I think we can connect to the fact that while a cover wager sometimes doesn't give you the best chance of victory in J!, there is more "heartbreak" in losing when a larger wager would have won.

Did Dylan's choice not to make a cover wager in the previous game figure into your calculations? I might have been tempted to go huge and hope that he would underwager.

Wow, thanks for your kind comments. Even though I had seen Dylan underwager from second, I didn't think he'd underwager from first.

And I'm probably different from most people in that I would feel much worse if I lost by doing something anti-percentage than I would/do feel losing by doing something I (still) believe gave me my best chances. I think there are many more literature questions that are hard enough for us to all get wrong than literature questions that I'll get right and Dylan will get wrong. I know it smacks of "betting against myself", and people may disagree, but that was my thought process.

After the dust had settled, it occurred to me that some people would think of me as some chick whose betting strategy was "ooo, shiny" and who was afraid to bet enough to win. Well, at least I nailed my anecdote.

[MarkBarrett]

Both were acceptable and Alex said so. I should have included the clue in NEEDFUL THINGS $200: To break in this piece of baseball eouipment, you'll need some good oil, rubber bands & patience

If the clue had been in "IT" then there would be no choice. As worded it was up to each player to pick one. The distinction between glove and mitt don't come into play in this case.

[Linear Gnome]

Does that seem like something a reasonable person could shoot for? If so, what bet should that reasonable person place in this situation? Figure it out before you look. No cheating.

Spoiler

$3,000. Which is exactly the amount Ilene wagered. If she misses, she still has $8,800--a dollar more than what Dylan will have if he made the shutout bet. (As things turned out, Dylan made the shutout-tie bet and would have been a co-champion.) Is it a coincidence that Ilene made exactly the bet that would have been placed by a contestant who hated the category and had a sophisticated understanding of wagering? Yeah, probably. But at most, that might mean she placed a good bet for a dumb reason. Until I hear what that dumb reason is, I see nothing to criticize.

Spoiler

Thank you! On my scratch paper, I had 3(11800)-2(16200)=3000. My thought process was exactly as you described.

[Fishercat]

I got murdered on the starts with clothing category (Hubby either ran or almost ran it), ran the stephen king cat and I think one other in J!

Thank you Kill Bill for the Instaget for Black Mamba.

Ilene's bet was weird, but I suppose a sort of calculated risk - she had presumably seen the triple stumper from the previous day and took a chance on winning that way (or on a sole get). Had Dylan gotten it right, it didn't really matter what Ilene did, so she probably figured that the difference between second and third if everyone had it was minimal, but if everyone missed it, she wanted to give herself a chance to hold on. Unfortunately for her, the end result was right in the middle of that. I wonder how often the third-place contestant going into FJ wins when they're not the only one with the right answer. Almost never, I imagine.

Interesting theory. I can see the math instructor following that line of logic. I continue to be boggled by the DD betting this week--I may just be paying attention more now that I've learned some wagering theory from hanging out here.

I agree that none of the contestants exactly seemed like ToC potential based on today's play. (now watch Drew go on a 5+ game tear...)

Oh, and I was overly tickled By the answer of Moe Green for Bugsy Siegel. Mario Puzo would be so proud...

Lucy's been waiting for four months to do her 'splainin'. (This week's games were taped on Oct. 29, before the Anna Karenina movie came out, incidentally.)

The only scenarios in which my bet matters are what the J! Archive calls Triple Stumper (TS) and Single Miss By Leader (SMBL). I don't claim I knew this at the time, but, out of the scenarios in which the leader misses, the TS is, by far, the most common, and SMBL is the least common most seasons. Since literature is not one of my stronger categories, I decided to make the largest bet I could that would win on a TS. (Interestingly, since Dylan offered a tie, we would have been co-champions on a TS.)

Running through the other scenarios, I recognized that I wasn't covering a double by Drew, but the betting had been so conservative throughout the game that it really caught me by surprise.

I've had lots of time to think about this, and I still think I gave myself my best chance of winning the game. (I understand that the expected value calculations are more complicated, but my utility function had a high premium on winning the game.)

Once I got over the initial shock and the would've-could've-should've's (e.g., it would have only taken 600 more dollars to close my "donut hole"), I made peace with the situation and I honestly have no regrets.

I'll probably add more later.

Honestly, it was just refreshing to see a logical bet from second or third place in that kind of situation. Thanks for explaining how it went down and congrats and a damned strong game.

[opusthepenguin]

The only scenarios in which my bet matters are what the J! Archive calls Triple Stumper (TS) and Single Miss By Leader (SMBL). I don't claim I knew this at the time, but, out of the scenarios in which the leader misses, the TS is, by far, the most common, and SMBL is the least common most seasons. Since literature is not one of my stronger categories, I decided to make the largest bet I could that would win on a TS. (Interestingly, since Dylan offered a tie, we would have been co-champions on a TS.)

Ha! You posted this while I was busy typing my defense of your wager along exactly those lines. I finished my post, clicked "Submit," and got some instant gratification.

Allow me to apologize and assure you I meant no offense when I wrote the following: "Is it a coincidence that Ilene made exactly the bet that would have been placed by a contestant who hated the category and had a sophisticated understanding of wagering? Yeah, probably." I see now that I would have lost that bet. I was just playing the odds, knowing that most contestants don't seem to understand wagering strategy. You are a delightful exception. I suspect I should have considered your many years of playing Bridge and predicted your superior analytical gifts.

I'm with you. You should have no regrets. You made a good wager and things just didn't break your way.