Wednesday, May 7, 2014 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

[Mark B]

Even though Brad steamrolled two excellent opponents (great effort, Dan!), he has not shown great wagering skills (not that he's had too many opportunities) and his DD wager here didn't change that. In response to his $10K DD wager, I offer two words: hubris, ate. At that point, he had nearly sown up a position to advance to the semi-finals, but his wager significantly increased his chances of not advancing. No matter how comfortable he is with the category, he can't possibly be 100% to get the DD right. And if he misses, he's opened the doors to his opponents. Sure, he'd still be the favorite to win at that point, but Dan and Mark would then have realistic chances of winning. And don't forget the psychological effect of a miss. How is he going to feel if he just missed a $10K DD and will that affect his play for the rest of the game?

If he just wagers something like $3K, a DD get virtually assures him advancing (almost as much as a $10K get does) and a miss still leaves him extremely likely to advance (still has a big lead and doesn't need that much to get to a relatively safe number for a WC).

slam, I felt the same way about the big DD bet.

Is it just me, or was there either something wrong with Brad's light, or is he so superhumanly fast on the buzzer that he jams the system? It looked at times like his white light bar was filling in slowly, rather than coming on quickly.

[Kingrat47]

Is it just me, or was there either something wrong with Brad's light, or is he so superhumanly fast on the buzzer that he jams the system? It looked at times like his white light bar was filling in slowly, rather than coming on quickly.

I'm glad that I was not insane to think that there was something different about Brad's light last night. I've never seen it do that before, and wonder if as you suggest it's something specific to him and his preternatural timing.

[georgespelvin]

Slim Whitman a TS. Really? I was shouting at the screen. Maybe you had to be watching late-night cable television at a certain age.

No. 1 in England for more weeks than Elvis and the Beatles!

OK, that's one question I'm not asking now.

[georgespelvin]

Even though Brad steamrolled two excellent opponents (great effort, Dan!), he has not shown great wagering skills (not that he's had too many opportunities) and his DD wager here didn't change that. In response to his $10K DD wager, I offer two words: hubris, ate. At that point, he had nearly sown up a position to advance to the semi-finals, but his wager significantly increased his chances of not advancing. No matter how comfortable he is with the category, he can't possibly be 100% to get the DD right. And if he misses, he's opened the doors to his opponents. Sure, he'd still be the favorite to win at that point, but Dan and Mark would then have realistic chances of winning. And don't forget the psychological effect of a miss. How is he going to feel if he just missed a $10K DD and will that affect his play for the rest of the game?

If he just wagers something like $3K, a DD get virtually assures him advancing (almost as much as a $10K get does) and a miss still leaves him extremely likely to advance (still has a big lead and doesn't need that much to get to a relatively safe number for a WC).

I'm curious about what Roger Craig thinks of this analysis.

It seems that the contestants in this tournament are psyching themselves out to a certain extent in terms of how good the opposition is with regards to wild card spots. Given what seems to be relatively low get rates in FJ in this tournament so far, this notion that you need to get to $20,000 to be safe seems to be somewhat shortsighted--unless of course everyone thought that way and wagered more conservatively.

For the Pam Mueller fans here, I suspect that the Thursday match-up won't produce someone to surpass her. I suspect that Ken will dominate the game and sweep up most of the available money, making it less likely that the other two will be in a position to catch Pam in FJ. On the other hand, I think the Friday match looks even enough that all three might advance, which, if I'm right about Thursday, would still be OK for Pam but bad for Dan. Dan needs to hope for a TS FJ here. Probably about farming.

I watched this game by DVR late last night after a long play rehearsal and the three were too damn fast for me at that late hour. I missed FJ as well.

[slam]

Even though Brad steamrolled two excellent opponents (great effort, Dan!), he has not shown great wagering skills (not that he's had too many opportunities) and his DD wager here didn't change that. In response to his $10K DD wager, I offer two words: hubris, ate. At that point, he had nearly sown up a position to advance to the semi-finals, but his wager significantly increased his chances of not advancing. No matter how comfortable he is with the category, he can't possibly be 100% to get the DD right. And if he misses, he's opened the doors to his opponents. Sure, he'd still be the favorite to win at that point, but Dan and Mark would then have realistic chances of winning. And don't forget the psychological effect of a miss. How is he going to feel if he just missed a $10K DD and will that affect his play for the rest of the game?

If he just wagers something like $3K, a DD get virtually assures him advancing (almost as much as a $10K get does) and a miss still leaves him extremely likely to advance (still has a big lead and doesn't need that much to get to a relatively safe number for a WC).

I'm curious about what Roger Craig thinks of this analysis.

I suppose we can ask him, but I'd be willing to bet that he wouldn't agree with Brad's wager. Roger is a very analytical guy and knows the difference between a TOC QF match and other situations. His big wagers were made under different circumstances.

[rschumac12]

Is it just me, or was there either something wrong with Brad's light, or is he so superhumanly fast on the buzzer that he jams the system? It looked at times like his white light bar was filling in slowly, rather than coming on quickly.

I'm glad that I was not insane to think that there was something different about Brad's light last night. I've never seen it do that before, and wonder if as you suggest it's something specific to him and his preternatural timing.

They actually had to reboot the computer at the center position a couple times during the tournament; the weird light was probably the reason. Fun fact: the buzzer system runs on a program on Windows XP!

EDIT: I'm sure this message will get the conspiracy theorists all in a tizzy! Don't worry, they always do a buzzer check at every commercial break as well as after these reboots.

[opusthepenguin]

At this point there are so many posts about it I won't add spoiler tags. Besides, anyone this week who is not watching the QF games in order is nuts and I don't buy any excuses.

If you're going to watch out of order, tournament games are the best ones to do that with. You don't learn who won the previous day's show just by watching. (To be extra safe, you should mute Alex's opening comments.) Theoretically, you should also be able to participate in the conversations here for those shows.

In practice, of course, we're all talking about how many wildcard slots are left and even naming champs from previous days.

[opusthepenguin]

New Orleans, Alabama? WTF?

It got moved there in 2005.

[Bamaman]

At this point there are so many posts about it I won't add spoiler tags. Besides, anyone this week who is not watching the QF games in order is nuts and I don't buy any excuses.

If you're going to watch out of order, tournament games are the best ones to do that with. You don't learn who won the previous day's show just by watching. (To be extra safe, you should mute Alex's opening comments.) Theoretically, you should also be able to participate in the conversations here for those shows.

In practice, of course, we're all talking about how many wildcard slots are left and even naming champs from previous days.

On Thursday's show, he opens by saying what decades the past winners are from but does not name them.

[gnash]

So, you think Brad has learned something about wagering, but misapplied it. That's possible. That same wager in a regular game would have much more going for it.

It's clear, though, that wagering is still a weak point in his game.

I agree with that, math is not his forte. If the tournament ends up being decided on a fine point of strategy or wagering, it will probably mean Roger will win it. Otherwise, I'm putting my money on Brad or Ken, as heuristic and imprecise as their strategic thinking may be.

[billy pilgrim]

New Orleans, Alabama? WTF?

It got moved there in 2005.

Well crafted.

[nserven]

If Dan picks up the rebound on Mark's Mr. Goodbar mistake, Brad's $10,000 DD doesn't happen.

[Bamaman]

Considering that I'm co-writing a role-playing game on the Bus Boycott, that was as instagetty as it gets for me. Ran Movie Directors, too. So sorry to see the cannons go off for you, Danny Boy! We'll commiserate over bourbons and beer in a month.

How will the game work?

[seaborgium]

If Dan picks up the rebound on Mark's Mr. Goodbar mistake, Brad's $10,000 DD doesn't happen.

How do you know?

[davey]

Neither I nor whoever captioned the show heard the "ed" in "deveined", but I'm guessing it must have been there.

Very odd...J! captioning is normally so precise, and if the closed captioning varies from a ruling, it's usually a sign that the ruling will be overturned later. For what it's worth, he doesn't come down hard on the "d" but Brad gets the benefit of the doubt from me on this one.
Another error on this show that no one has mentioned. Alex pronounced the second e in Vincente Minnelli, but the first name is said as 2 syllables. The story goes he added the e to make the name look grander.

[nserven]

If Dan picks up the rebound on Mark's Mr. Goodbar mistake, Brad's $10,000 DD doesn't happen.

How do you know?

True, there is no way of knowing Dan would continue with the category.

[pdano]

I probably would have gone for the $1600 - but as it happens, that was the Daily Double that I didn't know, so it worked out fine.

I will defend these big bets in FJ (obviously). The fact that pretty much all of Jeopardy's greatest champions were shooting so high is itself reason that you should shoot high. We (obviously) had no idea the get rate the first few days would be so pitiful. If the FJs had been a little more gettable, the fourth wildcard could right now be Tom C at $19200, behind me, Tom N, and Pam. I have further thoughts but they're currently spoilers.

Not much else to say about the game. Brad is impossible because he is BOTH very fast and very knowledgeable. Juggernaut. I appreciate everyone's kind words about my quixotic attempts to squeak it out.

When it comes down to it, I had a chance to make it through on "Supreme Court Decisions." I'll take that. Had a wonderful time and got to watch some incredible matches.

When I won the TOC I was pretty sure there would be something else down the road. Now I think this is probably over. It's been fantastic.

[georgespelvin]

Robert K S just posted this on Facebook but hasn't posted it here yet, so I will give him the well-deserved credit for uncovering this. The Supreme Court decision in question in FJ is a per curiam affirmance of the District Court decision in "Browder v. Gayle". The Supreme Court decision does not even have an opinion tied to it, it's a summary affirmance and the Supreme Court title for the affirmance is "Gayle v. Browder" (as Gayle appealed). If you are a lawyer by trade and training, that likely would get in the way of your 30 second analysis of the clue because (at least this was true in my case) you probably start thinking of actual historic Supreme Court opinions as opposed to the historical milieu in which it happened (at least not at first). I think that this makes the FJ much more difficult for lawyers and law students. It's a case (no pun intended) of too much knowledge.

[Bamaman]

Dan......Congrats on being a Jeopardy legend and thanks for posting here. I wouldn't hang up my signaling button yet, they may well have another super TOC again one say.

You had a tough draw in this round and were just one FJ away from making the semifinals.

[whatsahoe]

They actually had to reboot the computer at the center position a couple times during the tournament; the weird light was probably the reason. Fun fact: the buzzer system runs on a program on Windows XP!

Did they use the 'Ctrl - Alt - Del' command ?