Guesstimania 7 - 7 Times The Mania

[fowlerism]

What was the actual number for Question 2?

[jepkid97]

What was the actual number for Question 2?

I knew I left something out. It's 2,842, and I added it to the post.

[jepkid97]

Question 3: What is the combined population of the seven largest Primary Statistical Areas in the United States?

Comments: I was interested to find out the range of answers for this question, primarily (ha) because I wanted to see how many people would figure out that a PSA, for many cities, is actually just a more comprehensive measurement of a metro area population. I considered the possibility that some people might be thrown off by the definition, thinking that it referred to small metro areas not surrounded by any others. (If anyone is willing to admit to this, I'd very much like to know.) There were quite a few drops on this question, and not a single overestimate until submission 16. In fact, up until submission 20, the higher the response, the better.

Underestimates: 14
Overestimates: 3

For those interested, the seven most populous are:
1. New York - 23,362,099
2. Los Angeles - 18,238,998
3. Chicago - 9,899,902
4. Baltimore-Washington - 9,331,587
5. San Francisco Bay Area - 8,370,967
6. Boston - 7,991,371
7. Philadelphia - 7,129,428

Adding up to a correct answer of... 84,324,352



1. econgator - 85098126
2. TheyCallMeMrKid - 86735090
3. gem - 77777777
4. alietr - 74209772
5. esrever - 70000000
6. nightreign - 66000000
7. tjconn728 - 60800000
8. Caboom - 49999666
9. Vanya - 42000000
10. BobF - 129999999
11. psgola - 37000000
12. CheeseWhiz - 34969126
13. Bamaman - 32906407
14. dnbguy - 29000000
15. Luminosityfan - 19500000
16. dott888 - 17000000
17. MarkBarrett - 13333333

Drops
Rackme32
Cat Hat
Binky
jjwaymee
fowlerism
barandall800

[jepkid97]

Cumulative Scores through Question 3
1. Binky - 8
2. econgator - 12
3. esrever - 13
4. Cat Hat - 15
5. gem - 16
6. jjwaymee - 17
7. alietr - 20
7. Rackme32 - 20
9. TheyCallMeMrKid - 23
10. fowlerism - 27
11. tjconn728 - 28
12. dott888 - 29
13. Vanya - 30
14. CheeseWhiz - 35
14. dnbguy - 35
16. barandall800 - 36
17. Luminosityfan - 40
18. Bamaman - 42
19. BobF - 43
19. Caboom - 43
21. nightreign - 47
22. psgola - 48
23. MarkBarrett - 51

Despite a first-place finish on two consecutive questions, econgator is currently in second place to Binky, who dropped question 3. Can Binky hold on, or will someone else catch up? The reveal will continue tomorrow.

[TheyCallMeMrKid]

1. econgator - 85098126
2. TheyCallMeMrKid - 86735090
3. gem - 77777777
4. alietr - 74209772
5. esrever - 70000000
6. nightreign - 66000000
7. tjconn728 - 60800000
8. Caboom - 49999666
9. Vanya - 42000000
10. BobF - 129999999
11. psgola - 37000000
12. CheeseWhiz - 34969126
13. Bamaman - 32906407
14. dnbguy - 29000000
15. Luminosityfan - 19500000
16. dott888 - 17000000
17. MarkBarrett - 13333333

Drops
Rackme32
Cat Hat
Binky
jjwaymee
fowlerism

Looks like you only scored 22 players on this question. I believe barandall is the one you are missing.

[jepkid97]

1. econgator - 85098126
2. TheyCallMeMrKid - 86735090
3. gem - 77777777
4. alietr - 74209772
5. esrever - 70000000
6. nightreign - 66000000
7. tjconn728 - 60800000
8. Caboom - 49999666
9. Vanya - 42000000
10. BobF - 129999999
11. psgola - 37000000
12. CheeseWhiz - 34969126
13. Bamaman - 32906407
14. dnbguy - 29000000
15. Luminosityfan - 19500000
16. dott888 - 17000000
17. MarkBarrett - 13333333

Drops
Rackme32
Cat Hat
Binky
jjwaymee
fowlerism

Looks like you only scored 22 players on this question. I believe barandall is the one you are missing.

He dropped the question - I just forgot to add him. It's fixed now.

[econgator]

For those interested, the seven most populous are:
1. New York - 23,362,099
2. Los Angeles - 18,238,998
3. Chicago - 9,899,902
4. Baltimore-Washington - 9,331,587
5. San Francisco Bay Area - 8,370,967
6. Boston - 7,991,371
7. Philadelphia - 7,129,428

Didn't even have the right 7, but hey, whatever works.

(I used NY 24M, LA 19M, CHI 12M, SF 8M, HOU 8M, DAL 7.5M, ATL 6.5 and then threw some numbers on the end).

[TheyCallMeMrKid]

Didn't even have the right 7, but hey, whatever works.

(I used NY 24M, LA 19M, CHI 12M, SF 8M, HOU 8M, DAL 7.5M, ATL 6.5 and then threw some numbers on the end).

Now I see why I don't do so well on these things (this question excepted- blind squirrel theory). I didn't even bother thinking about numbers for specific cities. I knew NY was 20-something million, there were probably a couple others over 10M, and then I guessed the last 4 in the 7-10M range. So, 7 cities, 80 something million, then I go with a goofy number in that general vicinity: 8675309 with a 0 added on the end.

[jepkid97]

Let's keep this moving...
Question 4: How many processing cores power IBM’s Watson supercomputer?

Comments: I didn't have a great idea on a lot of these questions, but this might be the only one for which I wouldn't be able to make a remotely reasonable guess. There are so many factors to consider, and once you start considering a supercomputer as powerful as Watson, it's impossible to really grasp what's in it. Indeed, many of you seemed to feel the same way - this question had quite a few drops and doublers, as well as a very wide range of guesses. In fact, the largest guess was over 400,000 times greater than the smallest. Also, I received a number of guesses that were powers of 2 - this seems like a good idea, but the correct answer is not actually an exact power of 2.

Underestimates: 7
Overestimates: 9

The correct answer is... 2,880



1. Cat Hat - 3000
1. Binky - 3000
3. gem - 3333
4. Rackme32 - 2000
4. esrever - 2000
6. jjwaymee - 4096
7. alietr - 1482
8. MarkBarrett - 1333
9. nightreign - 117
10. barandall800 - 100
11. BobF - 16
12. fowlerism - 8818
13. dott888 - 10000
14. Luminosityfan - 50000
15. dnbguy - 1048576
16. Bamaman - 6412908

Drops
Vanya
psgola
CheeseWhiz
Caboom
econgator
tjconn728
TheyCallMeMrKid

[jepkid97]

Cumulative Scores through Question 4
1. Binky - 9
2. econgator - 12
3. Cat Hat - 16
4. esrever - 17
5. gem - 19
6. jjwaymee - 23
6. TheyCallMeMrKid - 23
8. Rackme32 - 24
9. alietr - 27
10. tjconn728 - 28
11. Vanya - 30
12. CheeseWhiz - 35
13. fowlerism - 39
14. dott888 - 42
15. Caboom - 43
16. barandall800 - 46
17. psgola - 48
18. dnbguy - 50
19. BobF - 54
19. Luminosityfan - 54
21. nightreign - 56
22. Bamaman - 58
23. MarkBarrett - 59

Binky now has a 7 point lead, but with 6 questions to go, who knows what will happen? Well, I do, but you guys will find out later.

[econgator]

Question 4: How many processing cores power IBM’s Watson supercomputer?

This one was my drop (after you reminded me of it).

[TheyCallMeMrKid]

Question 4: How many processing cores power IBM’s Watson supercomputer?

I dropped this one after Jepkid reminded me that I had a drop available. The answer could have been 100 or 1 million for all I knew. Unfortunately, my initial answer would've actually given me 3rd place on this question. I'm afraid I have peaked at #5 here, since I have researched now and know that a couple of my later answers are pretty far off.

[jepkid97]

Question 4: How many processing cores power IBM’s Watson supercomputer?

This one was my drop (after you reminded me of it).

I had to remind a lot of people to use their drops and doublers. Somehow, I managed to only record your doubler in my spreadsheet, but the drop is missing. It's fixed now.

[jepkid97]

Let's see if I can manage to get this one scored properly.
Question 5: How long, in words, is The Great Gatsby?

Comments: Shortly after I started receiving submissions for this one, I began to regret emphasizing that The Great Gatsby is known for being fairly short. It is on the short side for novels, especially classic ones, but it's not quite as short as some of you thought.

Underestimates: 14
Overestimates: 8

Correct response: 47,094



1. CheeseWhiz - 45268
2. econgator - 45001
3. Cat Hat - 45000
3. dott888 - 45000
5. Rackme32 - 50000
5. Binky - 50000
7. nightreign - 50028
8. Vanya - 42000
9. tjconn728 - 53135
10. esrever - 40000
10. dnbguy - 40000
12. gem - 55555
13. MarkBarrett - 33333
14. jjwaymee - 17560
15. BobF - 14999
16. Luminosityfan - 10000
16. psgola - 10000
18. alietr - 7263
19. TheyCallMeMrKid - 2525
20. Caboom - 166666
21. fowlerism - 180000
22. barandall800 - 2100216

Drops
Bamaman

[jepkid97]

Cumulative Scores through Question 5
1. Binky - 15
1. econgator - 15
3. Cat Hat - 20
4. esrever - 28
5. Rackme32 - 30
6. gem - 32
7. CheeseWhiz - 37
8. jjwaymee - 38
8. tjconn728 - 38
10. Vanya - 39
11. TheyCallMeMrKid - 43
12. alietr - 46
12. dott888 - 46
14. Bamaman - 58
15. dnbguy - 61
15. fowlerism - 61
17. nightreign - 64
17. Caboom - 64
19. psgola - 65
20. barandall800 - 69
21. BobF - 70
22. Luminosityfan - 71
23. MarkBarrett - 73

[Caboom]

Question 4: How many processing cores power IBM’s Watson supercomputer?

I dropped this one after Jepkid reminded me that I had a drop available. The answer could have been 100 or 1 million for all I knew. Unfortunately, my initial answer would've actually given me 3rd place on this question. I'm afraid I have peaked at #5 here, since I have researched now and know that a couple of my later answers are pretty far off.

Same here, dropped this one after Jepkid kindly reminded me it was an option. And I'm glad I did, as my answer was around 6.5 million and would have earned me last place.

[jepkid97]

One more for tonight:
Question 6: What is the sum of the following three year numbers – the fall of the monarchy, the fall of the republic, and the fall of the empire?

Comments: Since this question only involved knowledge of three years, which, while not common knowledge, I was expecting some people on the board to know, this was the only question on which I was really expecting correct answers. Unfortunately, the closest guess, clearly submitted by someone who had a good idea of the years, was off by one.

Underestimates: 14
Overestimates: 9

Correct answer: 1,012



1. Luminosityfan - 1013
2. Bamaman - 1004
3. Binky - 1000
4. gem - 999
4. Caboom - 999
6. Cat Hat - 1050
7. esrever - 1100
8. BobF - 899
9. jjwaymee - 858
10. alietr - 827
11. Rackme32 - 1200
12. TheyCallMeMrKid - 1235
13. dnbguy - 700
14. CheeseWhiz - 665
15. Vanya - 624
15. dott888 - 1400
17. tjconn728 - 546
18. fowlerism - 508
19. barandall800 - 215
20. econgator - 196
21. nightreign - 1961
22. psgola - 2000
23. MarkBarrett - 3333

[jepkid97]

Cumulative Scores through Question 6
1. Binky - 18
2. Cat Hat - 26
3. esrever - 35
3. econgator - 35
5. gem - 36
6. Rackme32 - 41
7. jjwaymee - 47
8. CheeseWhiz - 51
9. Vanya - 54
10. tjconn728 - 55
10. TheyCallMeMrKid - 55
12. alietr - 56
13. Bamaman - 60
14. dott888 - 61
15. Caboom - 68
16. Luminosityfan - 72
17. dnbguy - 74
18. BobF - 78
19. fowlerism - 79
20. nightreign - 85
21. psgola - 87
22. barandall800 - 88
23. MarkBarrett - 96

[jepkid97]

Question 7: Over the course of its 138 year history, how many MLB teams have played?

Comments: I was expecting most people to be in the ballpark (pun definitely intended) on this one, and for the most part, everyone did fairly well. Of course, with the relative lack of expansion and folding in recent years, I was expecting underestimates, seeing as, in the first few years of the league, many teams would fold or be added each year.

Underestimates: 12
Overestimates: 10

Correct response: 96



1. jjwaymee - 97
2. Caboom - 99
3. Cat Hat - 100
4. econgator - 107
5. esrever - 80
6. dnbguy - 75
7. TheyCallMeMrKid - 74
8. nightreign - 72
9. psgola - 70
10. dott888 - 125
11. barandall800 - 66
12. fowlerism - 128
13. tjconn728 - 62
14. MarkBarrett - 133
15. CheeseWhiz - 57
15. Bamaman - 57
17. Luminosityfan - 50
17. Vanya - 142
19. BobF - 42
20. Rackme32 - 40
21. Binky - 160
22. alietr - 241

Drops
gem

[jepkid97]

Cumulative Scores through Question 7
1. Cat Hat - 29
2. gem - 36
3. Binky - 39
3. econgator - 39
5. esrever - 40
6. jjwaymee - 48
7. Rackme32 - 61
8. TheyCallMeMrKid - 62
9. CheeseWhiz - 66
10. tjconn728 - 68
11. Caboom - 70
12. Vanya - 71
12. dott888 - 71
14. Bamaman - 75
15. alietr - 78
16. dnbguy - 80
17. Luminosityfan - 89
18. fowlerism - 91
19. nightreign - 93
20. psgola - 96
21. BobF - 97
22. barandall800 - 99
23. MarkBarrett - 110