Best And Worst Wager Of Season 30?

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UniquePerspective
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Best And Worst Wager Of Season 30?

Post by UniquePerspective »

Curious about people's thoughts on this, especially now that Jeopardy game theory is in the public eye more thanks to the Chu/Williams factor.

I'll give my clear vote for a worst, Maire Kennedy's low wager in a lock-tie situation.

Best is harder. While I like Mary Manhardt's wager in her win, I feel like it could have been more efficient by going either nothing or enough to cover a $200 wager from Kevin instead of a $1400 wager. I'm tentatively going to give it to Molly Lalonde's wager of nothing in her last game. It can be tough to bet nothing sometimes, and I value that she went for it when it was mathematically right. I also consider Alan Koolik and Jeff Xie both betting everything up there too.
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Re: Best And Worst Wager Of Season 30?

Post by Golf »

I was very pleased with Ananya's wager in the opening round of the recent teen tournament. It's actually difficult for me to remember the good wagers.

Of course the lock tie wager was dreadful, but my favorite has to be the $12000 wagered in FJ spread equally over three consecutive games.
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Mathew5000
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Re: Best And Worst Wager Of Season 30?

Post by Mathew5000 »

Two contenders for best FJ wager from the lead are Arthur Chu's in his 9th game and Pam Mueller's in BotD 1990s week.
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Re: Best And Worst Wager Of Season 30?

Post by ArthurChu »

Well now I have to start working on an acceptance speech just in case
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Re: Best And Worst Wager Of Season 30?

Post by ACW »

Maire: Worst wager EVER?
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Re: Best And Worst Wager Of Season 30?

Post by dhkendall »

ACW wrote:Maire: Worst wager EVER?
If so, it's a tie, as I'm positive she wasn't the first to do that, and most likely there were others cited in her game thread.
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Re: Best And Worst Wager Of Season 30?

Post by heelsrule1988 »

This thread isn't official until Vermonter posts.
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Re: Best And Worst Wager Of Season 30?

Post by nightreign »

heelsrule1988 wrote:This thread isn't official until Vermonter posts.
Seconded. I must admit I was hoping he'd do a feature on that on The Final Wager.
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Re: Best And Worst Wager Of Season 30?

Post by TheyCallMeMrKid »

I thought Maire's wager was bad. But I watched today's rerun, a teacher's week semi-final, where both the 2nd AND 3rd place players wagered EVERYTHING. :shock: Ugh! On a triple stumper, the first place player won with $500.

http://www.j-archive.com/showgame.php?game_id=4353
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Re: Best And Worst Wager Of Season 30?

Post by seaborgium »

Good wagers are all alike; every bad wager is bad in its own way.
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goforthetie
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Re: Best And Worst Wager Of Season 30?

Post by goforthetie »

I'm fairly certain that one can mathematically prove that Maire's is the worst possible wager under any set of circumstances.
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Re: Best And Worst Wager Of Season 30?

Post by Woof »

seaborgium wrote:Good wagers are all alike; every bad wager is bad in its own way.
Where's that Like button again?
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Mathew5000
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Re: Best And Worst Wager Of Season 30?

Post by Mathew5000 »

goforthetie wrote:I'm fairly certain that one can mathematically prove that Maire's is the worst possible wager under any set of circumstances.
If we're going to start in on mathematical proofs, then we need a precise definition to quantify how "bad" a given wager is. The obvious one is this: the difference between the probability of winning the game under the best wager that could be made, and the probability of winning the game under the wager actually made, given the information available to the player at the time the wager was made. (For purposes of this definition, "winning" includes tying for the win.)

Of course there can be other definitions of "worst wager" but they will involve more subjectivity in their application. I acknowledge that the definition I've provided usually does involve some subjectivity in its application.

That definition applies to daily double wagers as well as FJ wagers.

It's harder to come up with a good mathematical definition of "best wager" (or of "how good" a wager is). If we use the analagous definition, i.e. "the difference between the probability of winning the game under the wager actually made, and the probability of winning the game under the worst wager that could be made", it leads to unsatisfactory results. If we decide to give a player credit for making "one of the best wagers of the season" then it shouldn't simply be a wager that is much better than the worst conceivable wager that could legally have been made (but which no player would actually have considered making).
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Re: Best And Worst Wager Of Season 30?

Post by jeff6286 »

TheyCallMeMrKid wrote:I thought Maire's wager was bad. But I watched today's rerun, a teacher's week semi-final, where both the 2nd AND 3rd place players wagered EVERYTHING. :shock: Ugh! On a triple stumper, the first place player won with $500.

http://www.j-archive.com/showgame.php?game_id=4353
Wow, less than a year later, and I had totally forgotten about that one. And...spoiler alert for the rest of this week's reruns...
Spoiler
The beneficiary of those wagers went on to win the tournament and will play in the upcoming TOC.
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Re: Best And Worst Wager Of Season 30?

Post by John Boy »

TheyCallMeMrKid wrote:I thought Maire's wager was bad. But I watched today's rerun, a teacher's week semi-final, where both the 2nd AND 3rd place players wagered EVERYTHING. :shock: Ugh! On a triple stumper, the first place player won with $500.

http://www.j-archive.com/showgame.php?game_id=4353
Second the motion. The problem with selecting the worst wager is that there are so many candidates who make the same mistake of wagering big---if not all in---from second place despite the fact that the vast majority of leaders make the $1-lockout wager.
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Re: Best And Worst Wager Of Season 30?

Post by anotherclue »

I will second Arthur Chu's wager from his 9th game as the best wager of the season. Totally changed my thinking on wagering for the tie.
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Re: Best And Worst Wager Of Season 30?

Post by Bamaman »

I fail to see what was so great about Arthur's Game 9 wager. He bet for the tie, which he did in all his non-lock games on advice from The Final Wager.

I'd say not betting it all in a lock tie trailer spot is the worst possible wager. Yes, going all in from second is not normally advisable, but it does have an upside. If you get it right, you have maximized your winnings if the leader misses. Also, the leader may offer a tie as Keith's influence grows. Holding back a dollar from second place is a much worse bet.
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Re: Best And Worst Wager Of Season 30?

Post by RMT »

Darron o' Connor e left himself open to get over taken by 2nd place by failing to lock out 2nd place in both his games and he got him in his 2nd game where he got FJ Right but lost due not betting enough and lost to a suicide wager from 2nd but that what he deserved for not having the sense to lock out 2nd place
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Re: Best And Worst Wager Of Season 30?

Post by BobF »

TheyCallMeMrKid wrote:I thought Maire's wager was bad. But I watched today's rerun, a teacher's week semi-final, where both the 2nd AND 3rd place players wagered EVERYTHING. :shock: Ugh! On a triple stumper, the first place player won with $500.

http://www.j-archive.com/showgame.php?game_id=4353
I was about to say they weren't so bad because it was a tournament and they might have figured a big bet would give them a good chance at a wildcard if they didn't win.

Then I saw it was the semifinal. I'm sure Timothy is still kicking himself.
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Re: Best And Worst Wager Of Season 30?

Post by goforthetie »

Mathew5000 wrote:
goforthetie wrote:I'm fairly certain that one can mathematically prove that Maire's is the worst possible wager under any set of circumstances.
If we're going to start in on mathematical proofs, then we need a precise definition to quantify how "bad" a given wager is. The obvious one is this: the difference between the probability of winning the game under the best wager that could be made, and the probability of winning the game under the wager actually made, given the information available to the player at the time the wager was made. (For purposes of this definition, "winning" includes tying for the win.)
Yes, that was the definition I was thinking of. Not wagering it all in a lock-tie scenario reduces a greater-than-50% chance of winning to zero. I don't believe any other wager can do as much damage as that.
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