Best And Worst Wager Of Season 30?
Moderators: alietr, trainman, econgator, dhkendall
-
- Watches Jeopardy! Way Too Much
- Posts: 449
- Joined: Mon Jul 04, 2011 5:36 pm
Best And Worst Wager Of Season 30?
Curious about people's thoughts on this, especially now that Jeopardy game theory is in the public eye more thanks to the Chu/Williams factor.
I'll give my clear vote for a worst, Maire Kennedy's low wager in a lock-tie situation.
Best is harder. While I like Mary Manhardt's wager in her win, I feel like it could have been more efficient by going either nothing or enough to cover a $200 wager from Kevin instead of a $1400 wager. I'm tentatively going to give it to Molly Lalonde's wager of nothing in her last game. It can be tough to bet nothing sometimes, and I value that she went for it when it was mathematically right. I also consider Alan Koolik and Jeff Xie both betting everything up there too.
I'll give my clear vote for a worst, Maire Kennedy's low wager in a lock-tie situation.
Best is harder. While I like Mary Manhardt's wager in her win, I feel like it could have been more efficient by going either nothing or enough to cover a $200 wager from Kevin instead of a $1400 wager. I'm tentatively going to give it to Molly Lalonde's wager of nothing in her last game. It can be tough to bet nothing sometimes, and I value that she went for it when it was mathematically right. I also consider Alan Koolik and Jeff Xie both betting everything up there too.
-
- Watches Jeopardy! Way Too Much
- Posts: 2727
- Joined: Thu Jan 10, 2013 12:27 pm
Re: Best And Worst Wager Of Season 30?
I was very pleased with Ananya's wager in the opening round of the recent teen tournament. It's actually difficult for me to remember the good wagers.
Of course the lock tie wager was dreadful, but my favorite has to be the $12000 wagered in FJ spread equally over three consecutive games.
Of course the lock tie wager was dreadful, but my favorite has to be the $12000 wagered in FJ spread equally over three consecutive games.
- Mathew5000
- Watches Jeopardy! Way Too Much
- Posts: 624
- Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2013 4:46 am
Re: Best And Worst Wager Of Season 30?
Two contenders for best FJ wager from the lead are Arthur Chu's in his 9th game and Pam Mueller's in BotD 1990s week.
- ArthurChu
- Mad Genius Who Destroyed Jeopardy!
- Posts: 222
- Joined: Wed Jan 29, 2014 11:28 am
Re: Best And Worst Wager Of Season 30?
Well now I have to start working on an acceptance speech just in case
Follow me on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/arthurchuvoiceover and Twitter at https://twitter.com/arthur_affect!
-
- Watches Jeopardy! Way Too Much
- Posts: 632
- Joined: Wed Jan 04, 2012 6:50 pm
Re: Best And Worst Wager Of Season 30?
Maire: Worst wager EVER?
- dhkendall
- Pursuing the Dream
- Posts: 8789
- Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2011 11:49 am
- Location: Winnipeg, Manitoba
- Contact:
Re: Best And Worst Wager Of Season 30?
If so, it's a tie, as I'm positive she wasn't the first to do that, and most likely there were others cited in her game thread.ACW wrote:Maire: Worst wager EVER?
"Jeopardy! is two parts luck and one part luck" - Me
"The way to win on Jeopardy is to be a rabidly curious, information-omnivorous person your entire life." - Ken Jennings
Follow my progress game by game since 2012
"The way to win on Jeopardy is to be a rabidly curious, information-omnivorous person your entire life." - Ken Jennings
Follow my progress game by game since 2012
- heelsrule1988
- Sports Jeopardy! Alum/VVL #19
- Posts: 1908
- Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2011 2:19 pm
- Location: Raleigh, NC
Re: Best And Worst Wager Of Season 30?
This thread isn't official until Vermonter posts.
- nightreign
- #TeamAlsoRans
- Posts: 1281
- Joined: Sun Mar 09, 2014 3:18 pm
- Contact:
Re: Best And Worst Wager Of Season 30?
Seconded. I must admit I was hoping he'd do a feature on that on The Final Wager.heelsrule1988 wrote:This thread isn't official until Vermonter posts.
- TheyCallMeMrKid
- Swimming in the Jeopardy! Pool
- Posts: 1156
- Joined: Tue Apr 08, 2014 1:35 pm
- Location: St. Louis, MO
Re: Best And Worst Wager Of Season 30?
I thought Maire's wager was bad. But I watched today's rerun, a teacher's week semi-final, where both the 2nd AND 3rd place players wagered EVERYTHING. Ugh! On a triple stumper, the first place player won with $500.
http://www.j-archive.com/showgame.php?game_id=4353
http://www.j-archive.com/showgame.php?game_id=4353
Sheepin' it real.
-
- Undefeated in Reruns
- Posts: 8941
- Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2011 9:31 am
Re: Best And Worst Wager Of Season 30?
Good wagers are all alike; every bad wager is bad in its own way.
- goforthetie
- (username no longer operative)
- Posts: 1337
- Joined: Tue Oct 18, 2011 5:01 pm
Re: Best And Worst Wager Of Season 30?
I'm fairly certain that one can mathematically prove that Maire's is the worst possible wager under any set of circumstances.
- Woof
- Swimming in the Jeopardy! Pool
- Posts: 5125
- Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2011 9:53 pm
Re: Best And Worst Wager Of Season 30?
Where's that Like button again?seaborgium wrote:Good wagers are all alike; every bad wager is bad in its own way.
- Mathew5000
- Watches Jeopardy! Way Too Much
- Posts: 624
- Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2013 4:46 am
Re: Best And Worst Wager Of Season 30?
If we're going to start in on mathematical proofs, then we need a precise definition to quantify how "bad" a given wager is. The obvious one is this: the difference between the probability of winning the game under the best wager that could be made, and the probability of winning the game under the wager actually made, given the information available to the player at the time the wager was made. (For purposes of this definition, "winning" includes tying for the win.)goforthetie wrote:I'm fairly certain that one can mathematically prove that Maire's is the worst possible wager under any set of circumstances.
Of course there can be other definitions of "worst wager" but they will involve more subjectivity in their application. I acknowledge that the definition I've provided usually does involve some subjectivity in its application.
That definition applies to daily double wagers as well as FJ wagers.
It's harder to come up with a good mathematical definition of "best wager" (or of "how good" a wager is). If we use the analagous definition, i.e. "the difference between the probability of winning the game under the wager actually made, and the probability of winning the game under the worst wager that could be made", it leads to unsatisfactory results. If we decide to give a player credit for making "one of the best wagers of the season" then it shouldn't simply be a wager that is much better than the worst conceivable wager that could legally have been made (but which no player would actually have considered making).
- jeff6286
- Watches Jeopardy! Way Too Much
- Posts: 5228
- Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2011 7:34 pm
- Location: Indianapolis, IN
Re: Best And Worst Wager Of Season 30?
Wow, less than a year later, and I had totally forgotten about that one. And...spoiler alert for the rest of this week's reruns...TheyCallMeMrKid wrote:I thought Maire's wager was bad. But I watched today's rerun, a teacher's week semi-final, where both the 2nd AND 3rd place players wagered EVERYTHING. Ugh! On a triple stumper, the first place player won with $500.
http://www.j-archive.com/showgame.php?game_id=4353
Spoiler
The beneficiary of those wagers went on to win the tournament and will play in the upcoming TOC.
-
- Watches Jeopardy! Way Too Much
- Posts: 2981
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 7:11 am
Re: Best And Worst Wager Of Season 30?
Second the motion. The problem with selecting the worst wager is that there are so many candidates who make the same mistake of wagering big---if not all in---from second place despite the fact that the vast majority of leaders make the $1-lockout wager.TheyCallMeMrKid wrote:I thought Maire's wager was bad. But I watched today's rerun, a teacher's week semi-final, where both the 2nd AND 3rd place players wagered EVERYTHING. Ugh! On a triple stumper, the first place player won with $500.
http://www.j-archive.com/showgame.php?game_id=4353
-
- Contributor
- Posts: 19
- Joined: Wed Mar 19, 2014 7:14 pm
Re: Best And Worst Wager Of Season 30?
I will second Arthur Chu's wager from his 9th game as the best wager of the season. Totally changed my thinking on wagering for the tie.
-
- Also Receiving Votes
- Posts: 12897
- Joined: Sat Jul 02, 2011 1:39 pm
Re: Best And Worst Wager Of Season 30?
I fail to see what was so great about Arthur's Game 9 wager. He bet for the tie, which he did in all his non-lock games on advice from The Final Wager.
I'd say not betting it all in a lock tie trailer spot is the worst possible wager. Yes, going all in from second is not normally advisable, but it does have an upside. If you get it right, you have maximized your winnings if the leader misses. Also, the leader may offer a tie as Keith's influence grows. Holding back a dollar from second place is a much worse bet.
I'd say not betting it all in a lock tie trailer spot is the worst possible wager. Yes, going all in from second is not normally advisable, but it does have an upside. If you get it right, you have maximized your winnings if the leader misses. Also, the leader may offer a tie as Keith's influence grows. Holding back a dollar from second place is a much worse bet.
-
- Just Starting Out on JBoard
- Posts: 1
- Joined: Fri Dec 20, 2013 9:05 am
Re: Best And Worst Wager Of Season 30?
Darron o' Connor e left himself open to get over taken by 2nd place by failing to lock out 2nd place in both his games and he got him in his 2nd game where he got FJ Right but lost due not betting enough and lost to a suicide wager from 2nd but that what he deserved for not having the sense to lock out 2nd place
- BobF
- Watches Jeopardy! Way Too Much
- Posts: 2180
- Joined: Thu Jul 07, 2011 3:03 pm
- Location: All over the east coast
- Contact:
Re: Best And Worst Wager Of Season 30?
I was about to say they weren't so bad because it was a tournament and they might have figured a big bet would give them a good chance at a wildcard if they didn't win.TheyCallMeMrKid wrote:I thought Maire's wager was bad. But I watched today's rerun, a teacher's week semi-final, where both the 2nd AND 3rd place players wagered EVERYTHING. Ugh! On a triple stumper, the first place player won with $500.
http://www.j-archive.com/showgame.php?game_id=4353
Then I saw it was the semifinal. I'm sure Timothy is still kicking himself.
Was once hugged by Maggie Speak!
- goforthetie
- (username no longer operative)
- Posts: 1337
- Joined: Tue Oct 18, 2011 5:01 pm
Re: Best And Worst Wager Of Season 30?
Yes, that was the definition I was thinking of. Not wagering it all in a lock-tie scenario reduces a greater-than-50% chance of winning to zero. I don't believe any other wager can do as much damage as that.Mathew5000 wrote:If we're going to start in on mathematical proofs, then we need a precise definition to quantify how "bad" a given wager is. The obvious one is this: the difference between the probability of winning the game under the best wager that could be made, and the probability of winning the game under the wager actually made, given the information available to the player at the time the wager was made. (For purposes of this definition, "winning" includes tying for the win.)goforthetie wrote:I'm fairly certain that one can mathematically prove that Maire's is the worst possible wager under any set of circumstances.