If you were in second place in a double-lock game...

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Would you risk your second place?

Bet it all!
8
19%
No, that's just silly!
21
49%
Depends on the FJ category
14
33%
 
Total votes: 43

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jeff6286
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Re: If you were in second place in a double-lock game...

Post by jeff6286 »

lieph82 wrote:
jeff6286 wrote:
lieph82 wrote:
alietr wrote:Has anybody ever looked at the data to see how many times the leader risked a lock? I'm guessing the incidence rate is very, very low, making the expected value of betting it all not worth it.
It wouldn't take the leader risking a lock to make it worthwhile--betting it all is the move here if the leader offers a tie. While offering a tie in a lock game does not improve your probability of winning that game (that's why Keith doesn't suggest it and Arthur never did it), if you believe your opponent is weak and you can easily beat him the next day (a potentially dangerous assumption, but, hey, you did lock him out today!), you might offer a tie in this situation. We've seen at least one contestant do so this season in the post-Arthur/VT era.
I don't think this is true.
You're right. Julia's the last person to do something like this, and hers was an accidental Clavin, not a strategic maneuver. But it's not too hard to imagine- clearly I did.
It's certainly not hard to imagine, as it would be far from the most irrational wager ever on Jeopardy, but is there any instance in 30+ years, or at least in the games that are Archived, of a player with a lock game betting for the tie like this? Does anyone have a way to search the Archive for this? I would say the math error is a much greater possibility, as at least we know that has happened in the past, though I still put it somewhere in the 1% range, that 2nd bets it all, and is right, and 1st is wrong, and 1st bets enough to lose.
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lieph82
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Re: If you were in second place in a double-lock game...

Post by lieph82 »

jeff6286 wrote:
lieph82 wrote:
jeff6286 wrote:
lieph82 wrote:
alietr wrote:Has anybody ever looked at the data to see how many times the leader risked a lock? I'm guessing the incidence rate is very, very low, making the expected value of betting it all not worth it.
It wouldn't take the leader risking a lock to make it worthwhile--betting it all is the move here if the leader offers a tie. While offering a tie in a lock game does not improve your probability of winning that game (that's why Keith doesn't suggest it and Arthur never did it), if you believe your opponent is weak and you can easily beat him the next day (a potentially dangerous assumption, but, hey, you did lock him out today!), you might offer a tie in this situation. We've seen at least one contestant do so this season in the post-Arthur/VT era.
I don't think this is true.
You're right. Julia's the last person to do something like this, and hers was an accidental Clavin, not a strategic maneuver. But it's not too hard to imagine- clearly I did.
It's certainly not hard to imagine, as it would be far from the most irrational wager ever on Jeopardy, but is there any instance in 30+ years, or at least in the games that are Archived, of a player with a lock game betting for the tie like this? Does anyone have a way to search the Archive for this? I would say the math error is a much greater possibility, as at least we know that has happened in the past, though I still put it somewhere in the 1% range, that 2nd bets it all, and is right, and 1st is wrong, and 1st bets enough to lose.
I would guess it's happened before, though perhaps not successfully (as in, the leader bet to tie if wrong but either the trailer didn't bet it all and get FJ right or the leader got FJ right). I know back in the 5-day era, 4-day champs sometimes bet to tie in their final games...did this never happen in a lock game?

I think that all of these "weird" tie scenarios are more likely now that people have seen Arthur play and Keith's website is becoming more popular. Yeah, a math error is probably still more likely. Either way, though, I think a very, very small chance at infinite $ makes it a chance worth taking, when all you have to lose is $1K pre-taxes. But that's my personal preference.
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Re: If you were in second place in a double-lock game...

Post by jeff6286 »

lieph82 wrote: I would guess it's happened before, though perhaps not successfully (as in, the leader bet to tie if wrong but either the trailer didn't bet it all and get FJ right or the leader got FJ right). I know back in the 5-day era, 4-day champs sometimes bet to tie in their final games...did this never happen in a lock game?

I think that all of these "weird" tie scenarios are more likely now that people have seen Arthur play and Keith's website is becoming more popular. Yeah, a math error is probably still more likely. Either way, though, I think a very, very small chance at infinite $ makes it a chance worth taking, when all you have to lose is $1K pre-taxes. But that's my personal preference.
That's reasonable. Infinity dollars is a pretty strong temptation. And I had forgotten about the possibility of a 4-day champion doing this in the past. You are probably right that it has happened. I guess I'll revise my question: "does anyone know of a single example of a leader with a lock game who wasn't a 4-day champion betting enough to fall to exactly double the 2nd place player's score?"
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Re: If you were in second place in a double-lock game...

Post by seaborgium »

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Re: If you were in second place in a double-lock game...

Post by StevenH »

Bob Blake and Maria Wenglinsky are the only two contestants who I know of off the top of my head who ever risked a lock from first place. It's kind of funny that they were both invited to the BotD tournament (Bob declined the invite).

I don't have a strong preference on this issue. Unless I hated the category I would bet it all from second place in this scenario, with the hope that it would be my lucky day. I really wouldn't care too much about that extra $1000, though I don't blame anyone who would.
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Re: If you were in second place in a double-lock game...

Post by schoe »

Linear Gnome wrote:In a recent game, the player in second place bet the equivalent of $9900 in your scenario. Now that's just silly.
I think by "recent game" you mean Thursday's game, i.e., the game that was played right before I made this post and which was its direct inspiration. :mrgreen: Agree that doing $9900 is ridiculously silly - all in or nothing!
Yes - if that were you, wouldn't not betting it all eat away at you forever?
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Re: If you were in second place in a double-lock game...

Post by lisa0012 »

schoe wrote:
Yes - if that were you, wouldn't not betting it all eat away at you forever?
Not really, because it would figure it was such a rare occurrence that my actions were perfectly reasonable.
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Re: If you were in second place in a double-lock game...

Post by Linear Gnome »

schoe wrote:
Linear Gnome wrote:In a recent game, the player in second place bet the equivalent of $9900 in your scenario. Now that's just silly.
I think by "recent game" you mean Thursday's game, i.e., the game that was played right before I made this post and which was its direct inspiration. :mrgreen: Agree that doing $9900 is ridiculously silly - all in or nothing!
Yes, you are correct. :) I guess I was trying not to be mean(er) to the player who made the wager by putting this comment in the context of your hypothetical scenario (which I'm glad you posed, by the way--this has been an interesting discussion, and I can see both sides of it).
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Re: If you were in second place in a double-lock game...

Post by A Wray »

Golf wrote:And (to me) there's no difference between $2k and $1k, less when taxes are figured in. That extra $1k is worth the potential gain.
lieph82 wrote:Either way, though, I think a very, very small chance at infinite $ makes it a chance worth taking, when all you have to lose is $1K pre-taxes.
Wow. Good thing you two aren't handling my finances, though I'm happy you're both so wealthy that $1K means nothing to you. I'm curious, though, if someone told you they were going to buy a $1K lottery ticket, would you smile and wish them luck, or point out that they can go down to the convenience store and buy one for $1?
lisa0012 wrote:
schoe wrote:Yes - if that were you, wouldn't not betting it all eat away at you forever?
Not really, because it would figure it was such a rare occurrence that my actions were perfectly reasonable.
Shocker! A rational person on JBoard! News at 11!
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Re: If you were in second place in a double-lock game...

Post by lieph82 »

A Wray wrote:
Golf wrote:And (to me) there's no difference between $2k and $1k, less when taxes are figured in. That extra $1k is worth the potential gain.
lieph82 wrote:Either way, though, I think a very, very small chance at infinite $ makes it a chance worth taking, when all you have to lose is $1K pre-taxes.
Wow. Good thing you two aren't handling my finances, though I'm happy you're both so wealthy that $1K means nothing to you. I'm curious, though, if someone told you they were going to buy a $1K lottery ticket, would you smile and wish them luck, or point out that they can go down to the convenience store and buy one for $1?
Huh? I'm not wealthy in any sense. The ~$500 difference between the 2nd and 3rd place prizes post-taxes would indeed be meaningful to me. But once in my life, I would pay ~$500* for the chance to continue to fulfill a lifelong dream and win tons of money in the process. That chance is non-negligible; buying a lottery ticket is an absurd analog.

I also wouldn't criticize anyone for making the other choice. A lock-out wager is perfectly rational, and I think this decision is primarily personal.

*and, in fact, as many have brought up, I wouldn't even necessarily be doing that--there's still a very good chance I get FJ right or 3rd place bets it all and gets FJ wrong and I still get the 2nd place prize
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Re: If you were in second place in a double-lock game...

Post by Caboom »

A Wray wrote:
Golf wrote:And (to me) there's no difference between $2k and $1k, less when taxes are figured in. That extra $1k is worth the potential gain.
lieph82 wrote:Either way, though, I think a very, very small chance at infinite $ makes it a chance worth taking, when all you have to lose is $1K pre-taxes.
Wow. Good thing you two aren't handling my finances, though I'm happy you're both so wealthy that $1K means nothing to you. I'm curious, though, if someone told you they were going to buy a $1K lottery ticket, would you smile and wish them luck, or point out that they can go down to the convenience store and buy one for $1?
lisa0012 wrote:
schoe wrote:Yes - if that were you, wouldn't not betting it all eat away at you forever?
Not really, because it would figure it was such a rare occurrence that my actions were perfectly reasonable.
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Well I guess all of us aren't as money hungry as you, willing to throw away a once in a lifetime opportunity for $1k.

(Disclaimer: not directed to anyone else besides the quotee, who, besides being disrespectful, seems to have a low opinion of the people on this board.)
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Re: If you were in second place in a double-lock game...

Post by Bamaman »

I just happened to go to the Archive and this game was the random FJ game on the front page.

http://www.j-archive.com/showgame.php?game_id=1208

It is a double lock game and the leader made a "tie if wrong" bet. She got it wrong, but second place did not bet everything, though she got it wrong as well. Second place bet to protect second place and got a trip to Hawaii rather than a stereo.
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Re: If you were in second place in a double-lock game...

Post by lieph82 »

Bamaman wrote:I just happened to go to the Archive and this game was the random FJ game on the front page.

http://www.j-archive.com/showgame.php?game_id=1208

It is a double lock game and the leader made a "tie if wrong" bet. She got it wrong, but second place did not bet everything, though she got it wrong as well. Second place bet to protect second place and got a trip to Hawaii rather than a stereo.
The sad thing is second place didn't even bet to protect her lock...
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Re: If you were in second place in a double-lock game...

Post by Bamaman »

lieph82 wrote:
Bamaman wrote:I just happened to go to the Archive and this game was the random FJ game on the front page.

http://www.j-archive.com/showgame.php?game_id=1208

It is a double lock game and the leader made a "tie if wrong" bet. She got it wrong, but second place did not bet everything, though she got it wrong as well. Second place bet to protect second place and got a trip to Hawaii rather than a stereo.
The sad thing is second place didn't even bet to protect her lock...
Whoops, didn't even notice that.

I can't believe they all missed it, though one did have all three correct with an extra (wrong) country thrown in.
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Re: If you were in second place in a double-lock game...

Post by lisa0012 »

Caboom wrote:
A Wray wrote:
lisa0012 wrote:
schoe wrote:Yes - if that were you, wouldn't not betting it all eat away at you forever?
Not really, because it would figure it was such a rare occurrence that my actions were perfectly reasonable.
Shocker! A rational person on JBoard! News at 11!
Well I guess all of us aren't as money hungry as you, willing to throw away a once in a lifetime opportunity for $1k.

(Disclaimer: not directed to anyone else besides the quotee, who, besides being disrespectful, seems to have a low opinion of the people on this board.)
As the one being quoted, I have to respond to this. I am in the pool (for the second time), so obviously I take very seriously any opportunity I get to be on the show. The fact that I wouldn't risk 2nd place for the very small chance the leader might make a mistake doesn't make me value this opportunity any less, or make me "money hungry". It means I am looking at the odds and making the bet that makes the most sense for me in this game. If I'm actually in that position, and I hit a wheelhouse, would I be less logical? You never know, I suppose.
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Re: If you were in second place in a double-lock game...

Post by lieph82 »

lisa0012 wrote:
Caboom wrote:
A Wray wrote:
lisa0012 wrote:
schoe wrote:Yes - if that were you, wouldn't not betting it all eat away at you forever?
Not really, because it would figure it was such a rare occurrence that my actions were perfectly reasonable.
Shocker! A rational person on JBoard! News at 11!
Well I guess all of us aren't as money hungry as you, willing to throw away a once in a lifetime opportunity for $1k.

(Disclaimer: not directed to anyone else besides the quotee, who, besides being disrespectful, seems to have a low opinion of the people on this board.)
As the one being quoted, I have to respond to this. I am in the pool (for the second time), so obviously I take very seriously any opportunity I get to be on the show. The fact that I wouldn't risk 2nd place for the very small chance the leader might make a mistake doesn't make me value this opportunity any less, or make me "money hungry". It means I am looking at the odds and making the bet that makes the most sense for me in this game. If I'm actually in that position, and I hit a wheelhouse, would I be less logical? You never know, I suppose.
I believe Caboom was referring to A Wray as the quotee.

The idea of a "logical" decision is pretty complicated here. alietr brought up the idea of expected value before; if the leader does make a mistake and you capitalize on it, you then have the opportunity to play in another game, and then another game, and then another and thus win a possible total of infinity dollars. Unless that series converges pretty quickly (I don't think I have enough information to do the math here), the expected value of betting it all is definitely greater than the expected value of taking the guaranteed $2K.
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Re: If you were in second place in a double-lock game...

Post by lisa0012 »

lieph82 wrote:
lisa0012 wrote: As the one being quoted, I have to respond to this. I am in the pool (for the second time), so obviously I take very seriously any opportunity I get to be on the show. The fact that I wouldn't risk 2nd place for the very small chance the leader might make a mistake doesn't make me value this opportunity any less, or make me "money hungry". It means I am looking at the odds and making the bet that makes the most sense for me in this game. If I'm actually in that position, and I hit a wheelhouse, would I be less logical? You never know, I suppose.
I believe Caboom was referring to A Wray as the quotee.

The idea of a "logical" decision is pretty complicated here. alietr brought up the idea of expected value before; if the leader does make a mistake and you capitalize on it, you then have the opportunity to play in another game, and then another game, and then another and thus win a possible total of infinity dollars. Unless that series converges pretty quickly (I don't think I have enough information to do the math here), the expected value of betting it all is definitely greater than the expected value of taking the guaranteed $2K.
Yeah, I know, but it was my quote so I felt defensive :) I agree that logic is complicated in this situation, and I have no issues with anyone who would go for it. I think the survey shows there are plenty of people on either side.
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Re: If you were in second place in a double-lock game...

Post by Golf »

Another factor to consider is just how good a player you feel you are. In other words, given this longshot chance, do you think you can win a boatload of games? If so, then go for it. If you're a typical just happy to be there contestant with mediocre talent, then it might be worth it to take the extra pretax $1k and go home.

Furthermore, if the leader has proven he/she does not offer the tie and does things properly over multiple games, then possibly take the $2k. But if it's some random that has shown no tendencies, go for the win.

It's all basic common sense, game theory, with a little personal feelings thrown in. But those traits seem to be missing a lot of the time.
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Re: If you were in second place in a double-lock game...

Post by Bamaman »

It would be hard to get a real feel of their tendencies unless you had watched them in a lock game.

I might go for it all if I liked the category.
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Re: If you were in second place in a double-lock game...

Post by A Wray »

What's the reaction on this board if the leader in a two-thirds game wagers zero, and loses as a result? (Don't think that's happened in a while, but on the old Sony board there would be a storm of abuse hurled at the contestant.)

What's the reaction if the leader in a two-thirds game makes the shutout wager, and loses as a result? In virtually all cases nobody (other than Bob Shore) even mentions the wager.

Why the double standard? Jeopardy contestants lose much more often because they bet too much, than because they bet too little. Yet there's this macho "bet on yourself" attitude that tends to prevail here, plus an outsized emphasis on the psychological aspect of "how much would I regret it if I lost that way?" And then many people demand that everyone else adopt those same biases (without which I doubt this poll would even be as close as it is).

So that's where my snark was coming from. But I apologize if I was disrespectful. I meant to be merely crotchety.
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