If you were in second place in a double-lock game...

This is where all of the games are discussed.

Moderators: alietr, trainman, econgator, dhkendall

Would you risk your second place?

Bet it all!
8
19%
No, that's just silly!
21
49%
Depends on the FJ category
14
33%
 
Total votes: 43

User avatar
schoe
Loyal Jeopardista
Posts: 226
Joined: Mon Oct 06, 2014 8:55 pm

If you were in second place in a double-lock game...

Post by schoe »

If you were in second place in a double-lock game -- let's say first had $22,000, you had $10,000 and third had $4,000 -- would you just bet $0 to maintain your guaranteed extra $1,000 for coming in second, or would you bet it all hoping for the scant scant chance that first decides to bet for the tie, i.e., bets $2,000? Or maybe that FJ makes a math error in his/her betting (unlikely in my scenario with nice round numbers but maybe possible if the numbers are rougher)? Or maybe just for pride so that you can say you went on Jeopardy and got $20,000, even though first beat you, rather than $10,000? Would you put your extra $1,000 of real second place cash at risk for that? Or would you wager it safe and keep your extra $1,000, knowing though that that makes it definite that in FJ you're playing for nothing? (I guess in some way this question asks what's worth more to you - a real $1,000, or that slim chance of a Jeopardy moment?) So what do you say?
Last edited by schoe on Thu Oct 23, 2014 10:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
Linear Gnome
One Miner Gal
Posts: 2007
Joined: Thu Nov 15, 2012 9:55 am
Location: Missouri

Re: If you were in second place in a double-lock game...

Post by Linear Gnome »

In a recent game, the player in second place bet the equivalent of $9900 in your scenario. Now that's just silly.
User avatar
dhkendall
Pursuing the Dream
Posts: 8789
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2011 11:49 am
Location: Winnipeg, Manitoba
Contact:

Re: If you were in second place in a double-lock game...

Post by dhkendall »

Depends on the category. Always.
"Jeopardy! is two parts luck and one part luck" - Me

"The way to win on Jeopardy is to be a rabidly curious, information-omnivorous person your entire life." - Ken Jennings

Follow my progress game by game since 2012
User avatar
MarkBarrett
Watches Jeopardy! Way Too Much
Posts: 16471
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2011 10:37 am
Location: San Francisco

Re: If you were in second place in a double-lock game...

Post by MarkBarrett »

I did not vote. For me it would have very likely depended on whether it was my first game or not. As a returning champ with money in the bank I would be more willing to throw away $1000 for a slim shot at hitting the lottery. If it is day one I would only have done it if I had seen the returning champ offer such a tie in the previous game even if a wheelhouse category appeared.
User avatar
boson
Trivial
Posts: 1719
Joined: Wed Jul 13, 2011 9:01 pm

Re: If you were in second place in a double-lock game...

Post by boson »

Of all the scenarios to worry about when you get on the show, this is the least of your worries.
seaborgium
Undefeated in Reruns
Posts: 8941
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2011 9:31 am

Re: If you were in second place in a double-lock game...

Post by seaborgium »

I voted bet it all, but that's just because the next time I will be on will be a show where there's no difference between the payouts for second and third. (Of course, there might be a wild card situation, in which case betting it all is still a possible choice.)
WilliamPorygon
Contributor
Posts: 32
Joined: Thu Feb 02, 2012 12:25 pm

Re: If you were in second place in a double-lock game...

Post by WilliamPorygon »

Ah crap, I voted before reading the post and somehow misread "double-lock" as "lock-tie" for some reason. :oops:

I'd just bet nothing, or at least not enough to risk losing the extra grand for second. I'm already aware that I'm not that great of a Jeopardy! player; if I did get on the show somehow I'd just be happy to have money to play the Final.
Caboom
Watches Jeopardy! Way Too Much
Posts: 718
Joined: Mon Mar 24, 2014 9:49 am

Re: If you were in second place in a double-lock game...

Post by Caboom »

Like I said in the other thread, throwing away $20,000 (or $19,000, as I'd get $2,000, instead of a minimum of $21,000) and another appearance would hurt a thousand times more than losing that extra $1,000, so I would have to bet it all, despite it being mathematically incorrect. And I guess the offer for tie would be the most likely way for me to continue. (Has anybody researched how often people clavin vs offer the tie from a lock position?)

As to what Mark said, if it was a later game, the extra $1,000 wouldn't matter. But if it was my first game, I would want atleast one victory, so it evens out for me.
User avatar
nightreign
#TeamAlsoRans
Posts: 1281
Joined: Sun Mar 09, 2014 3:18 pm
Contact:

Re: If you were in second place in a double-lock game...

Post by nightreign »

When I was in this situation, I bet my max that I could without falling into third place. Why? I don't know. Hubris? My betting machine running on automatic? I think I just thought it would be really anticlimactic to bet zero, so I bet something, even though it didn't mean anything.
If I were in that same situation in a tournament, with wildcards and no difference between second and third, I would have unquestionably bet it all. I'd never consider that in a regular game, though.
User avatar
nserven
At the Clam Shack
Posts: 1149
Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2011 12:05 pm
Location: Greenfield, MA

Re: If you were in second place in a double-lock game...

Post by nserven »

I'd be too bitter about being locked out to worry about what is rational.
GoodStrategy
Loyal Jeopardista
Posts: 242
Joined: Fri Mar 28, 2014 6:59 pm

Re: If you were in second place in a double-lock game...

Post by GoodStrategy »

seaborgium wrote:I voted bet it all, but that's just because the next time I will be on will be a show where there's no difference between the payouts for second and third. (Of course, there might be a wild card situation, in which case betting it all is still a possible choice.)
It will (most likely, barring a reset of eligibility) also be a show where it'd be foolish to bet for the tie unless you're in a scenario that calls for it.
Golf
Watches Jeopardy! Way Too Much
Posts: 2727
Joined: Thu Jan 10, 2013 12:27 pm

Re: If you were in second place in a double-lock game...

Post by Golf »

Bet it all, why?

1, leaders make mistakes risking their lock
2, leaders occasionally offer the tie

And (to me) there's no difference between $2k and $1k, less when taxes are figured in. That extra $1k is worth the potential gain. And if 3rd bets it all and misses you still get the $2k.
countyguy
Vacuously Undefeated on J!
Posts: 610
Joined: Sun Apr 27, 2014 4:12 am

Re: If you were in second place in a double-lock game...

Post by countyguy »

Why would you bet it all? Pure hubris, you are supposed to bet to retain your lock over third. You don't want Keith to give you a red rectangle, do you?
Caboom
Watches Jeopardy! Way Too Much
Posts: 718
Joined: Mon Mar 24, 2014 9:49 am

Re: If you were in second place in a double-lock game...

Post by Caboom »

countyguy wrote:Why would you bet it all? Pure hubris, you are supposed to bet to retain your lock over third. You don't want Keith to give you a red rectangle, do you?
Keith always advocates maximizing your chances of winning. So why not do that here? Unless your goal all along was to place 2nd...

I'd bet you'd get a tie/victory in this situation as often as you'd gain anything for betting for the tie (from the lead, in non-lock situations) (you only gain advantage from betting for the tie if 1) you miss and then tie someone else, instead of losing by $1, or if 2) someone bets it all later in the week, after seeing you offer the tie earlier, resulting in your victory). Granted, the downside in offering the tie is lower, but still.
User avatar
alietr
Site Admin
Posts: 8980
Joined: Thu Jun 30, 2011 1:20 pm
Location: Bethesda, MD

Re: If you were in second place in a double-lock game...

Post by alietr »

Has anybody ever looked at the data to see how many times the leader risked a lock? I'm guessing the incidence rate is very, very low, making the expected value of betting it all not worth it.
User avatar
TheyCallMeMrKid
Swimming in the Jeopardy! Pool
Posts: 1156
Joined: Tue Apr 08, 2014 1:35 pm
Location: St. Louis, MO

Re: If you were in second place in a double-lock game...

Post by TheyCallMeMrKid »

There's also a non-zero probability that 3rd place would bet everything which would mean you would still get the 2nd place money on a double miss even if you also bet it all.

The reason I say this is that the 3rd place player might not fully understand wagering strategy, plus I think someone "locked" in 3rd place could either a) hope that you also might offer a tie on a miss (although we know that doesn't matter for the prize money) or b) try to make their score look as good as possible.
Sheepin' it real.
User avatar
Woof
Swimming in the Jeopardy! Pool
Posts: 5125
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2011 9:53 pm

Re: If you were in second place in a double-lock game...

Post by Woof »

Second place can bet $2000 without risking anything. It seems to me no more likely that first would wager $2000 than that he/she would wager $10000. Both are utterly silly wagers.
User avatar
lieph82
Watches Jeopardy! Way Too Much
Posts: 1053
Joined: Sun Jun 02, 2013 12:48 am

Re: If you were in second place in a double-lock game...

Post by lieph82 »

alietr wrote:Has anybody ever looked at the data to see how many times the leader risked a lock? I'm guessing the incidence rate is very, very low, making the expected value of betting it all not worth it.
It wouldn't take the leader risking a lock to make it worthwhile--betting it all is the move here if the leader offers a tie. While offering a tie in a lock game does not improve your probability of winning that game (that's why Keith doesn't suggest it and Arthur never did it), if you believe your opponent is weak and you can easily beat him the next day (a potentially dangerous assumption, but, hey, you did lock him out today!), you might offer a tie in this situation. We've seen at least one contestant do so this season in the post-Arthur/VT era.
User avatar
jeff6286
Watches Jeopardy! Way Too Much
Posts: 5228
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2011 7:34 pm
Location: Indianapolis, IN

Re: If you were in second place in a double-lock game...

Post by jeff6286 »

lieph82 wrote:
alietr wrote:Has anybody ever looked at the data to see how many times the leader risked a lock? I'm guessing the incidence rate is very, very low, making the expected value of betting it all not worth it.
It wouldn't take the leader risking a lock to make it worthwhile--betting it all is the move here if the leader offers a tie. While offering a tie in a lock game does not improve your probability of winning that game (that's why Keith doesn't suggest it and Arthur never did it), if you believe your opponent is weak and you can easily beat him the next day (a potentially dangerous assumption, but, hey, you did lock him out today!), you might offer a tie in this situation. We've seen at least one contestant do so this season in the post-Arthur/VT era.
I don't think this is true.
User avatar
lieph82
Watches Jeopardy! Way Too Much
Posts: 1053
Joined: Sun Jun 02, 2013 12:48 am

Re: If you were in second place in a double-lock game...

Post by lieph82 »

jeff6286 wrote:
lieph82 wrote:
alietr wrote:Has anybody ever looked at the data to see how many times the leader risked a lock? I'm guessing the incidence rate is very, very low, making the expected value of betting it all not worth it.
It wouldn't take the leader risking a lock to make it worthwhile--betting it all is the move here if the leader offers a tie. While offering a tie in a lock game does not improve your probability of winning that game (that's why Keith doesn't suggest it and Arthur never did it), if you believe your opponent is weak and you can easily beat him the next day (a potentially dangerous assumption, but, hey, you did lock him out today!), you might offer a tie in this situation. We've seen at least one contestant do so this season in the post-Arthur/VT era.
I don't think this is true.
You're right. Julia's the last person to do something like this, and hers was an accidental Clavin, not a strategic maneuver. But it's not too hard to imagine- clearly I did.
Post Reply