Jeopardy! Tournament of Champions Prediction Challenge (Spoilers for ToC))

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NocturnalBeaver516
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Jeopardy! Tournament of Champions Prediction Challenge (Spoilers for ToC))

Post by NocturnalBeaver516 »

Think March Madness Brackets, but for the Tournament of Champions!

The form can be found at:
http://goo.gl/forms/5yQbfrS0ZJ

Rules for the Challenge can be found on the form. Results will be posted in this thread (assuming I get submissions).

It'll only take a minute to submit, and the more people we get to submit the more interesting this can be! It'll close when I wake up (~9 AM EST) on Monday 11/10/14.

If you were at the taping, please don't submit a response (I don't want it spoiled for me, and I want the results to be legitimate).
Last edited by NocturnalBeaver516 on Sat Nov 22, 2014 1:36 am, edited 6 times in total.
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Re: Jeopardy! Tournament of Champions Prediction Challenge

Post by dhkendall »

NocturnalBeaver516 wrote:Think March Madness Brackets, but for the Tournament of Champions!

The form can be found at:
http://goo.gl/forms/5yQbfrS0ZJ

Rules for the Challenge can be found on the form. Results will be posted in this thread (assuming I get submissions).

It'll only take a minute to submit, and the more people we get to submit the more interesting this can be! It'll close when I wake up (~9 AM) on Monday 11/10/14.

If you were at the taping, please don't submit a response (I don't want it spoiled for me, and I want the results to be legitimate).
Just to note that don't hold me to whatever I submit, I can't remember the performances of at least half of them so they were guesses, so I may very well make a different prediction on the boards.
"Jeopardy! is two parts luck and one part luck" - Me

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Re: Jeopardy! Tournament of Champions Prediction Challenge

Post by legendneverdies »

If game show message boards were around for Super J! a quarter century ago, almost no one would have predicted the three finalists correctly.
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Re: Jeopardy! Tournament of Champions Prediction Challenge

Post by StevenH »

legendneverdies wrote:If game show message boards were around for Super J! a quarter century ago, almost no one would have predicted the three finalists correctly.
Well, I would have guessed that Verini and Traini would be good bets...
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Re: Jeopardy! Tournament of Champions Prediction Challenge

Post by seaborgium »

StevenH wrote:
legendneverdies wrote:If game show message boards were around for Super J! a quarter century ago, almost no one would have predicted the three finalists correctly.
Well, I would have guessed that Verini and Traini would be good bets...
How about if you knew Traini would face Forrest in the QF?
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Re: Jeopardy! Tournament of Champions Prediction Challenge

Post by NocturnalBeaver516 »

dhkendall wrote:
NocturnalBeaver516 wrote:Think March Madness Brackets, but for the Tournament of Champions!

The form can be found at:
http://goo.gl/forms/5yQbfrS0ZJ

Rules for the Challenge can be found on the form. Results will be posted in this thread (assuming I get submissions).

It'll only take a minute to submit, and the more people we get to submit the more interesting this can be! It'll close when I wake up (~9 AM) on Monday 11/10/14.

If you were at the taping, please don't submit a response (I don't want it spoiled for me, and I want the results to be legitimate).
Just to note that don't hold me to whatever I submit, I can't remember the performances of at least half of them so they were guesses, so I may very well make a different prediction on the boards.
No problem!

In general, should I DM people their response to the form, so that they can view their picks?
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Re: Jeopardy! Tournament of Champions Prediction Challenge

Post by MarkBarrett »

seaborgium wrote:
StevenH wrote:
legendneverdies wrote:If game show message boards were around for Super J! a quarter century ago, almost no one would have predicted the three finalists correctly.
Well, I would have guessed that Verini and Traini would be good bets...
How about if you knew Traini would face Forrest in the QF?
Frank Spangenberg and Bob Blake were unblemished since they did Super J! before their TOC, so they were other big shots in the mix.

I'm not recalling seeing the full field before Super J! aired, making it more of a surprise who would be playing next each time a quarterfinal was airing, so tough to predict the finalists.

One more player that might have been picked for the finals before Bruce Seymour was Eric Newhouse.
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Re: Jeopardy! Tournament of Champions Prediction Challenge

Post by RKane »

Bob Blake is a boss because he shares my nationality and occupation (hopefully....), but unfortunately by the time he got invinted back to another tournament was way too old.

Frank I would have seeded #1 in those days, but in retropsect, he does choke a lot. It also occurs to me, looking at his J! Archive games, that almost every game he lost, he would have won with a correct response, or even a zero wager.

Honestly, I think that BotD was the first tournament where I would have (without the benefit of hindsight) predicted a good number of the results with any degree of accuracy.

~

Also, am I the only one who ranked Julia as one of the 10s in this poll??
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Re: Jeopardy! Tournament of Champions Prediction Challenge

Post by NocturnalBeaver516 »

RKane wrote:Also, am I the only one who ranked Julia as one of the 10s in this poll??
So far, yes.
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Re: Jeopardy! Tournament of Champions Prediction Challenge

Post by MarkBarrett »

RKane wrote: Also, am I the only one who ranked Julia as one of the 10s in this poll??
You are if anyone else playing paid attention to her two opponents. If she can't convert that draw into a semifinal spot then there was nothing else the powers could have done for her.
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Re: Jeopardy! Tournament of Champions Prediction Challenge

Post by RKane »

MarkBarrett wrote:
RKane wrote: Also, am I the only one who ranked Julia as one of the 10s in this poll??
You are if anyone else playing paid attention to her two opponents. If she can't convert that draw into a semifinal spot then there was nothing else the powers could have done for her.
Barring a board completely made up of topics about identifying locations in Chicago, facts about the Chicago Cubs, and defining obscure terms relating to supply chain administration, I have absolutely no fear.
I'm done. Abandon all hope ye who enter here.
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Re: Jeopardy! Tournament of Champions Prediction Challenge

Post by whatisbishkek »

RKane wrote:
MarkBarrett wrote:
RKane wrote: Also, am I the only one who ranked Julia as one of the 10s in this poll??
You are if anyone else playing paid attention to her two opponents. If she can't convert that draw into a semifinal spot then there was nothing else the powers could have done for her.
Barring a board completely made up of topics about identifying locations in Chicago, facts about the Chicago Cubs, and defining obscure terms relating to supply chain administration, I have absolutely no fear.
I would love to know what it is exactly that makes someone so certain that a person who won twenty consecutive games is actually not all that remarkable a Jeopardy player. Sure, she's not a Ken, Brad, or Roger, but you don't win twenty games just by getting lucky. Also, consider that she had arguably the strongest motivation of any of the contestants to prepare well for the tournament.
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Re: Jeopardy! Tournament of Champions Prediction Challenge

Post by MarkBarrett »

whatisbishkek wrote:
RKane wrote:
MarkBarrett wrote:
RKane wrote: Also, am I the only one who ranked Julia as one of the 10s in this poll??
You are if anyone else playing paid attention to her two opponents. If she can't convert that draw into a semifinal spot then there was nothing else the powers could have done for her.
Barring a board completely made up of topics about identifying locations in Chicago, facts about the Chicago Cubs, and defining obscure terms relating to supply chain administration, I have absolutely no fear.
I would love to know what it is exactly that makes someone so certain that a person who won twenty consecutive games is actually not all that remarkable a Jeopardy player. Sure, she's not a Ken, Brad, or Roger, but you don't win twenty games just by getting lucky. Also, consider that she had arguably the strongest motivation of any of the contestants to prepare well for the tournament.
Julia won $428K and change. She was playing for "only" another 250K. I would think players who had the possibility of facing her, Arthur or other super champs might have been more motivated to prepare well. Going in Julia would know her consecutive streak is not going anywhere soon and she'll get more chances to play again in future special tourneys. I have no way of knowing, but I would not guess her motivation even in the top five.
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Re: Jeopardy! Tournament of Champions Prediction Challenge

Post by MarkBarrett »

Or perhaps Julia has read everything here since her games and has been extra determined to prove the detractors wrong and justify the adulation of the loyal fans.
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Re: Jeopardy! Tournament of Champions Prediction Challenge

Post by lieph82 »

whatisbishkek wrote:
RKane wrote:
MarkBarrett wrote:
RKane wrote: Also, am I the only one who ranked Julia as one of the 10s in this poll??
You are if anyone else playing paid attention to her two opponents. If she can't convert that draw into a semifinal spot then there was nothing else the powers could have done for her.
Barring a board completely made up of topics about identifying locations in Chicago, facts about the Chicago Cubs, and defining obscure terms relating to supply chain administration, I have absolutely no fear.
I would love to know what it is exactly that makes someone so certain that a person who won twenty consecutive games is actually not all that remarkable a Jeopardy player. Sure, she's not a Ken, Brad, or Roger, but you don't win twenty games just by getting lucky. Also, consider that she had arguably the strongest motivation of any of the contestants to prepare well for the tournament.
I'm about 90% certain at this point that Julia dumped RKane in college. Is there another explanation for his 53rd post about how a 20-day champion is the worst J! player of all time?
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Re: Jeopardy! Tournament of Champions Prediction Challenge

Post by whatisbishkek »

MarkBarrett wrote:
whatisbishkek wrote:
RKane wrote:
MarkBarrett wrote:
RKane wrote: Also, am I the only one who ranked Julia as one of the 10s in this poll??
You are if anyone else playing paid attention to her two opponents. If she can't convert that draw into a semifinal spot then there was nothing else the powers could have done for her.
Barring a board completely made up of topics about identifying locations in Chicago, facts about the Chicago Cubs, and defining obscure terms relating to supply chain administration, I have absolutely no fear.
I would love to know what it is exactly that makes someone so certain that a person who won twenty consecutive games is actually not all that remarkable a Jeopardy player. Sure, she's not a Ken, Brad, or Roger, but you don't win twenty games just by getting lucky. Also, consider that she had arguably the strongest motivation of any of the contestants to prepare well for the tournament.
Julia won $428K and change. She was playing for "only" another 250K. I would think players who had the possibility of facing her, Arthur or other super champs might have been more motivated to prepare well. Going in Julia would know her consecutive streak is not going anywhere soon and she'll get more chances to play again in future special tourneys. I have no way of knowing, but I would not guess her motivation even in the top five.
You have a point. I guess I might revise my statement to say that, of all the players, Julia is the one I would feel most confident in saying that she would have prepared really well. Any random player from the field may or may not have done so. Julia and Arthur are the two famous players for whom a first-game exit would be seen as embarrassing, and who have the opportunity to cement their all-time-great status with a tournament win. Of the two, Arthur is obviously a very competitive person, but he's also someone who spends lots of time arguing with idiots on Twitter. Julia strikes me as just as competitive but in a quieter way, and given that I'm pretty sure she was still jobless at least as of earlier this year, she had plenty of opportunity to prepare.
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Re: Jeopardy! Tournament of Champions Prediction Challenge

Post by NocturnalBeaver516 »

FYI: I've gotten a few responses that weren't quite within the guidelines. If it was a little thing like 2 8's and 0 9's, I corrected it and your submission stands. But if you put four people as the champ, I really had no choice but to toss the submission. If you aren't sure whether your submission was ok, ask me via DM or just submit again with the same name and I can replace your previous submission.
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Re: Jeopardy! Tournament of Champions Prediction Challenge

Post by Austin Powers »

whatisbishkek wrote:
MarkBarrett wrote: Julia won $428K and change. She was playing for "only" another 250K. I would think players who had the possibility of facing her, Arthur or other super champs might have been more motivated to prepare well. Going in Julia would know her consecutive streak is not going anywhere soon and she'll get more chances to play again in future special tourneys. I have no way of knowing, but I would not guess her motivation even in the top five.
You have a point. I guess I might revise my statement to say that, of all the players, Julia is the one I would feel most confident in saying that she would have prepared really well. Any random player from the field may or may not have done so. Julia and Arthur are the two famous players for whom a first-game exit would be seen as embarrassing, and who have the opportunity to cement their
all-time-great status with a tournament win. Of the two, Arthur is obviously a very competitive person, but he's also someone who spends lots of time arguing with idiots on Twitter. Julia strikes me as just as competitive but in a quieter way, and given that I'm pretty sure she was still jobless at least as of earlier this year, she had plenty of opportunity to prepare.
I would say that the biggest knock against Julia is that she doesn't really have any strategic sense at all. This is based on her interviews. She seemed dismissive of folks who, you know, actually watch the show in a detailed manner. If I had to guess, she maybe did some flash cards, but isn't going to go out there and do a Craigesque TDD strategy. Heck, she'll probably bet to win in the quarterfinals.

Chu would roll her head-to-head, though there are probably at least two other players in the field with more depth of knowledge than either of them, so I am not sure if they'll get to meet.
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Re: Jeopardy! Tournament of Champions Prediction Challenge

Post by RKane »

whatisbishkek wrote:
RKane wrote:
MarkBarrett wrote:
RKane wrote: Also, am I the only one who ranked Julia as one of the 10s in this poll??
You are if anyone else playing paid attention to her two opponents. If she can't convert that draw into a semifinal spot then there was nothing else the powers could have done for her.
Barring a board completely made up of topics about identifying locations in Chicago, facts about the Chicago Cubs, and defining obscure terms relating to supply chain administration, I have absolutely no fear.
but you don't win twenty games just by getting lucky.
I used to think so too. However, I have received evidence that, apparently, it can happen.

And I never said she was the worst ever.
I'm done. Abandon all hope ye who enter here.
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Re: Jeopardy! Tournament of Champions Prediction Challenge

Post by Sherm »

Don't get how you guys are getting that Julia Collins is not one of the big hitters in this tourny. 20 Straight games she led going into FJ, and over half of the time they were locks. Chu's knowledge of the most effective way to play the game, of which he should get alot of credit, gets in the way of the fact that there were a couple other players every bit as dominate as he was (and Collins is one of them). The big thing Chu will do is go for it. He's the one guy that would do a Roger Craig, back to back all in daily double. It probably makes him the most dangerous of the players in the tourny, but it also makes him most likley to blowout in the first round.

Andrew Moore is the favorite, without any doubt (and he just got the Sherm kiss of death lose in the first round curse). I have Collins ahead of Chu. Even Chuck Forrest has said the Forrest Bounce really doesn't work to much of an advantage against really good players.
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