Jeopardy! Tournament of Champions Prediction Challenge (Spoilers for ToC))

[periwinkle]

So glad to see boardie NYCScribbler advance!! Best of retroactive luck for the semis.

[MarkBarrett]

I know I had Andrew picked #1, so it's easy to figure out the semifinalist I missed going 8/9.

Comments about the semifinal draw:

Spoiler

Win, Win, WC
Win, WC, WC
Win, Win, WC

I think the draw is fair with Julia the low WC getting two winners and Arthur the biggest of the five winners the only one getting two WCs. The reputation of the Powers precedes them and I did not fully trust them not to do Arthur vs. Ben in one semifinal while assuring outchange in another with Julia vs. Terry vs. Rebecca/Sandie.

[Vermonter]

The producers didn't have many options in crafting these semifinal matches. I was almost correct with my prediction as to the pairings.

Spoiler

I created three "pots" from which they would choose one player for each game:

Friday's QF
Jared
Sandie
Mark

"Seeded" players
Julia**
Arthur
Ben*

The other three
Terry
Joshua**
Rebecca*

Since Julia couldn't play Joshua again, she had to go against another female. Unless they wanted a three-female SF, Sandie would have to go in another match.

My only mistake was swapping Rebecca and Terry. Even had the days correct. This after an abysmal attempt at predicting the QF match-ups.

[TheyCallMeMrKid]

How did I do? I forget exactly who I guessed, but I feel like a got a good number right.

6 right, for 6 points

If anyone wants to know their personal score, PM me!

What's the scoring system for the SF and Finals?

[opusthepenguin]

Quarterfinals are over and there are 5 people leading the challenge!

CamTheTutorMan called all 9 semifinalists, while MarkBarrett, LargestElizabeth, Shaymin, and Opus the Penguin all had 8 of 9 correct.

Ok, fellow second-placers, did we all have Andrew Moore instead of Terry O'Shea? And CamTheTutorMan (if that's your real name), how did you decide to advance Terry and toss Andrew? Say... remind me what Andrew Moore does for a living? I'm having a thought here.

[NocturnalBeaver516]

How did I do? I forget exactly who I guessed, but I feel like a got a good number right.

6 right, for 6 points

If anyone wants to know their personal score, PM me!

What's the scoring system for the SF and Finals?

Semifinals, 2 points per game if you have the winner ranked higher than the other two people in the semifinal. Final, you get 3 points if your #1 ranked player wins the tournament.

Quarterfinals are over and there are 5 people leading the challenge!

CamTheTutorMan called all 9 semifinalists, while MarkBarrett, LargestElizabeth, Shaymin, and Opus the Penguin all had 8 of 9 correct.

Ok, fellow second-placers, did we all have Andrew Moore instead of Terry O'Shea? And CamTheTutorMan (if that's your real name), how did you decide to advance Terry and toss Andrew? Say... remind me what Andrew Moore does for a living? I'm having a thought here.

Cam was in the same tournament as Terry, so of course he picked Terry to advance. How did he toss Andrew? The world may never know. Andrew Moore, at least during his original run, was a test prep instructor.

And if you don't mind me divulging - two people in second right now missed on Terry, while the other two missed on Sandie and Rebecca. Instead they had Andrew twice, Rani, and John.

[opusthepenguin]

but you don't win twenty games just by getting lucky.

I used to think so too. However, I have received evidence that, apparently, it can happen.

No offense, but I hope this was hyperbole because, taken straight, it's idiotic. NOBODY wins twenty games "just" by getting lucky. And nobody wins twenty games without some luck. There's more than the usual amount of disagreement about how MUCH luck was involved in Julia's case. But it's raving lunacy to suggest that luck completely accounts for her run.

I think Julia had more luck than most contestants get. I think that's likely to be true of anyone who wins 5 or more games. I also think she's a better player than an undefined super-majority of contestants. And I think THAT'S likely to be true of anyone who wins 5 or more games.

As for this tournament, she's not even the luckiest contestant in it. Or the second luckiest. Those would be Mark Japinga and Drew Horwood, possibly not in that order. Third luckiest is the absolute best I can offer you. Take it before I change my mind.

[opusthepenguin]

Ok, fellow second-placers, did we all have Andrew Moore instead of Terry O'Shea? And CamTheTutorMan (if that's your real name), how did you decide to advance Terry and toss Andrew? Say... remind me what Andrew Moore does for a living? I'm having a thought here.

Cam was in the same tournament as Terry, so of course he picked Terry to advance. How did he toss Andrew? The world may never know. Andrew Moore, at least during his original run, was a test prep instructor.

Sort of a Tutor Man, you might say?

[lieph82]

but you don't win twenty games just by getting lucky.

I used to think so too. However, I have received evidence that, apparently, it can happen.

No offense, but I hope this was hyperbole because, taken straight, it's idiotic. NOBODY wins twenty games "just" by getting lucky. And nobody wins twenty games without some luck. There's more than the usual amount of disagreement about how MUCH luck was involved in Julia's case. But it's raving lunacy to suggest that luck completely accounts for her run.

I think Julia had more luck than most contestants get. I think that's likely to be true of anyone who wins 5 or more games. I also think she's a better player than an undefined super-majority of contestants. And I think THAT'S likely to be true of anyone who wins 5 or more games.

As for this tournament, she's not even the luckiest contestant in it. Or the second luckiest. Those would be Mark Japinga and Drew Horwood, possibly not in that order. Third luckiest is the absolute best I can offer you. Take it before I change my mind.

RKane had Julia coming in 39th place in this TOC and has been pretty silent since her QF in which she had a higher pre-FJ score than anyone but Arthur.

[RKane]

but you don't win twenty games just by getting lucky.

I used to think so too. However, I have received evidence that, apparently, it can happen.

No offense, but I hope this was hyperbole because, taken straight, it's idiotic. NOBODY wins twenty games "just" by getting lucky. And nobody wins twenty games without some luck. There's more than the usual amount of disagreement about how MUCH luck was involved in Julia's case. But it's raving lunacy to suggest that luck completely accounts for her run.

I think Julia had more luck than most contestants get. I think that's likely to be true of anyone who wins 5 or more games. I also think she's a better player than an undefined super-majority of contestants. And I think THAT'S likely to be true of anyone who wins 5 or more games.

As for this tournament, she's not even the luckiest contestant in it. Or the second luckiest. Those would be Mark Japinga and Drew Horwood, possibly not in that order. Third luckiest is the absolute best I can offer you. Take it before I change my mind.

I will grant this: I didn't like Julia from the start. Well, that's not true. At first I thought she was a nothing contestant, who was lucky to come against a rather poor set of opponents. Her first win, I said, "Oh, okay, weak game." The second game, she faced some guy named Dilip who impressed me less than any contestant I recall watching, ever (note: I have not watched forever like some people). However, there was also some criminal lawyer who I thought would win. Literally every game she won came to me as a surprise. At no point did I expect her to win, or be the rumored 20-day champion. Now, I will admit, yes: I may have let emotion get into my evaluation. Maybe my dislike of her made me think she was worse than she actually is. In fact, that's almost certain. I almost have to give her credit as a Jeopardy! player at this point, loathe as I am to. But I certainly don't have to like her as a contestant or root for her (I obviously am in no position to like or dislike her as a person or human being, as I never have and never will meet her) - and, that, honestly, might be what bothers me most of all. I don't get her fan club. The fact that she is one of the more popular contestants who people root for blows my mind. Maybe that exacerbates my feelings (and not intentionally contrarion, I assure you - I was definitely rooting for a Craig/Nissley showdown in those years, for instance), and maybe that makes me a weak, emotion-driven human being. Fine. But I don't get her appeal. Like, at all. Sorry.

And I will take it, because I can agree Horwood is much luckier.

but you don't win twenty games just by getting lucky.

I used to think so too. However, I have received evidence that, apparently, it can happen.

No offense, but I hope this was hyperbole because, taken straight, it's idiotic. NOBODY wins twenty games "just" by getting lucky. And nobody wins twenty games without some luck. There's more than the usual amount of disagreement about how MUCH luck was involved in Julia's case. But it's raving lunacy to suggest that luck completely accounts for her run.

I think Julia had more luck than most contestants get. I think that's likely to be true of anyone who wins 5 or more games. I also think she's a better player than an undefined super-majority of contestants. And I think THAT'S likely to be true of anyone who wins 5 or more games.

As for this tournament, she's not even the luckiest contestant in it. Or the second luckiest. Those would be Mark Japinga and Drew Horwood, possibly not in that order. Third luckiest is the absolute best I can offer you. Take it before I change my mind.

RKane had Julia coming in 39th place in this TOC and has been pretty silent since her QF in which she had a higher pre-FJ score than anyone but Arthur.

I had her 15th. (39th???) I have been silent because I rather difficult exam prior to this weekend and had little-to-no time in which to watch TV, let alone go to forums about it. I literally studied every free minute last week. I admit Julia did FAR better than I expected, but I would submit that 9th place (4th wild card) is no further from my own prediction than the people who had her winning through a lock. Although I was probably the only one dissapointed she did get the wild card lol.

[Sherm]

I read stuff like you are saying about Julia Collins, and I have to wonder if you even watched her shows. She had a lock in over half of her games. That is not luck. Do you know how many players in this ToC had a lock in over half the games they played outside of Ms. Collins? Two, Chu and Hall. That's it. She won games because she consistantly had a higher coryat score than the players she was against and over half the time, did not have to worry about FJ to win. She was the best player in her QF match is I tend to think she will make the finals. Even in a ToC there are players that seems to shine as being better than the others, and she is definately one of them.

[yclept]

I read stuff like you are saying about Julia Collins, and I have to wonder if you even watched her shows. She had a lock in over half of her games. That is not luck. Do you know how many players in this ToC had a lock in over half the games they played outside of Ms. Collins? Two, Chu and Hall. That's it. She won games because she consistantly had a higher coryat score than the players she was against and over half the time, did not have to worry about FJ to win. She was the best player in her QF match is I tend to think she will make the finals. Even in a ToC there are players that seems to shine as being better than the others, and she is definately one of them.

The element of luck is true of every champion, so I don't know why Julia is even singled out for any luck she had. Ken Jennings missed a FJ fairly early in his run when he didn't have a lock...if the second place player gets it, there's no Ken. Didn't Roger lose his shirt on a DD in Game 3 of his run? He was able to right the ship. I don't think Larissa was in first place going into FJ in all of her wins (haven't looked that one up, admittedly - but I think she had a game where she was behind going into final). Brad Rutter has a few instances of luck going in his favor as well.

Julia is a great player. One of the best players ever to go on the Jeopardy stage. We have no idea whatsoever how good her competition would have been if they didn't have to face Julia, so I find the "bad competition" argument weak. Are people basing her being overrated based on a bad FJ wager in her loss? If so, that is rather nitpicky.

[StevenH]

I don't think Larissa was in first place going into FJ in all of her wins (haven't looked that one up, admittedly - but I think she had a game where she was behind going into final). Brad Rutter has a few instances of luck going in his favor as well.

Of Larissa's 6 wins, the only two that were blow outs were her first two. She trailed entering FJ and was beaten in Coryat score in her 4th and 5th games, and her 5th game had a FJ that I thought was very easy ("people who smoke cigarettes"). She only had slight leads entering FJ in her other wins. Fun fact about Larissa's 7th game: she had the high Coryat score, but was locked out and in a distant 3rd going into FJ. Given the nature of the game that can happen, but I imagine that it is still a pretty uncommon occurrence.

[MarkBarrett]

A little comparison shopping for the semifinals based on the QF game:

Monday
Terry O'Shea (Winner):
Coryat: 8800
FJ: R
DD: 0/0
R: 11
W: 1
Position: 1

Jared Hall (Winner):
Coryat: 12600
FJ: R
DD: 1/2
R: 13
W: 1
Position: 2

Julia Collins (Wildcard):
Coryat: 13400
FJ: N
DD: 1/1
R: 21
W: 2
Position: 1

************
Tuesday
Arthur Chu (Winner):
Coryat: 19200
FJ: Y
DD: 1/1
R: 25
W: 2
Position: Lock

Mark Japinga (Wildcard):
Coryat: 13400
FJ: Y
DD: 1/1
R: 21
W: 3
Position: 1

Rebecca Rider (Wildcard):
Coryat: 6600
FJ: Y
DD: 0/0
R: 10
W: 2
Position: 3

***********
Wednesday
Ben Ingram (Winner):
Coryat: 19400
FJ: Y
DD: 1/2
R: 20
W: 2
Position: 1

Joshua Brakhage (Winner):
Coryat: 11600
FJ: Y
DD: 0/0
R: 15
W: 1
Position: 2

Sandie Baker (Wildcard):
Coryat: 9000
FJ: Y
DD: 0/0
R: 12
W: 4
Position: 3

********
And for giggles top to bottom the Coryat:

Ben: 19400
Arthur: 19200
Mark and Julia: 13400
Jared: 12600
Joshua: 11600
Sandie: 9000
Terry: 8800
Rebecca: 6600

Clues correct:

Arthur: 25
Mark and Julia: 21
Ben: 20
Joshua: 15
Jared: 13
Sandie: 12
Terry: 11
Rebecca: 10

So for those watching the TOC as Julia & those 14 others, it's pretty clear who you should root against.

[hanzz]

Well done, Terry. How often has answering only a sixth of the board's clues correctly won you a ToC game?

[econgator]

Well done, Terry. How often has answering only a sixth of the board's clues correctly won you a ToC game?

It's not so much the 11R as the only 1W. For comparison, Drew was 15R, 7W (+2DD) and Sarah was 12R, 5W (+1 DD).

[Caboom]

Well done, Terry. How often has answering only a sixth of the board's clues correctly won you a ToC game?

It's not so much the 11R as the only 1W. For comparison, Drew was 15R, 7W (+2DD) and Sarah was 12R, 5W (+1 DD).

Yeah, for me that implies she probably could have gotten a few more clues correct, but was avoiding risks when she wasn't certain of the answer, unlike perhaps her opponents. And I do believe thursday's board was the hardest.

[StuckInMyCat'sBody]

I expected Julia to go for the lockout. She was lucky to get into the Semifinals.

Mark Japinga is also pretty lucky though, in his first game where he beat Ben Ingram, the person in the lead bet $0, and in Mark's second game, all three came up with the correct response and wagered decently, but Mark's response was the only one accepted since he actually put "The Legend of Zelda". His opponents just put "Zelda".

And in his 5th game, had Mark came up with the correct response, he would've won a fifth time, since Kerri didn't even wager to cover him. Luckily for her, they all missed.

[seaborgium]

Mark Japinga is also pretty lucky though, in his first game where he beat Ben Ingram, the person in the lead bet $0,

She got FJ wrong, though.

and in Mark's second game, all three came up with the correct response and wagered decently, but Mark's response was the only one accepted since he actually put "The Legend of Zelda". His opponents just put "Zelda".

His opponents didn't come up with correct responses; they were able to name Mrs. Fitzgerald (that's worth, like, $600 in the rest of the game) but not the video game.

And in his 5th game, had Mark came up with the correct response, he would've won a fifth time, since Kerri didn't even wager to cover him. Luckily for her, they all missed.

How is this an example of Mark's luck?

[NYCScribbler]

Ok, fellow second-placers, did we all have Andrew Moore instead of Terry O'Shea? And CamTheTutorMan (if that's your real name), how did you decide to advance Terry and toss Andrew? Say... remind me what Andrew Moore does for a living? I'm having a thought here.

Cam was in the same tournament as Terry, so of course he picked Terry to advance. How did he toss Andrew? The world may never know. Andrew Moore, at least during his original run, was a test prep instructor.

Sort of a Tutor Man, you might say?

The only boy who could ever teach me.