Monday, April 20, 2015 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

[bleezy]

Great post goatman! Before wikipedia-ing Wolfe I thought the Plains of Abraham were somewhere in the Biblical world.

[StevenH]

I didn't see the game but I did look through it in the archive, and I'll add on to the congrats for omgw!

Bring on the next ToC!

[hbomb1947]

I want to pile on to all the congrats that have been coming Alex's way for a fantastic run. I'm sorry it was over so soon. And it's worth noting that even in his loss, Alex had the highest Coryat and the lead and a very high dollar amount going into FJ. He will be formidable indeed in the TOC. It will be interesting to see how his TOC opponents adjust, and how many of them will do what Todd did and recognize that they can't bring a knife to a gunfight. Major kudos to Todd, who didn't know how easy his DD clue would actually be, but had the guts to go all-in, which got him into a 2/3 scenario and allowed him to bet relatively small on FJ. If he was in a crush situation, he would have had fewer paths to victory. (Of course, with his sole solve, it didn't matter. Also, he did overwager, but that didn't end up mattering either).

BTW, I know I'm getting ahead of things here because we have yet to see how Alex will ultimately fare in his TOC, but I would love to see Alex play against Roger Craig in a future tournament.

I got FJ right; it helped that I joined twitter in 2008 (although I didn't become active on that platform until 2012), so I was never going to consider twitter as a response for a clue asking for a company founded in 2010. And I did remember the sale of instagram to Facebook.

I had an embarrassing neg with The Polar Express for The Grinch for the 2000 holiday movie based on a beloved 1957 children's book. Turns out that the book came out in 1985 and the movie was released in 2004.

[goatman]

Surprised "Roosevelt" and "Adams" responses weren't asked to be more specific in the first round.

Adams I can slightly understand (they both probably lived in it simultaneously and I don't think it mentioned "while in office"), but Roosevelt?

Lucky guess on FJ. I considered that, Snapchat, and Pinterest. Instagram seemed the most likely.

JQ Adams was 33-34 years old when his dad lived in the White HOuse. Possible though. Roosevelt died in 1916, 23 years before FDR did his first TV appearance.

Yes but still usual J! rules require BMS for J v JQ Adams, WH Harrison v Ben Harrison, TR v FDR, A Johnson v. LBJ even though decades or centuries separate them... I expected BMS and was surprised none was forthcoming. Are the rules 'relaxing'?! Regardless that TV was not invented until after 1916, still... should've been "BMS"!

[goatman]

Sorry to see you go, Alex. Unlike some people (well one person) here, I can see you played your last game with the same strategy as the rest. I learned a thing or two watching you, and I look forward to seeing you in the TOC!

I'm not sorry. Boy, was that guy irritating. His successs was remarkable for someone whose brain appears to operate so s-l-o-w-l-y...

I think you've got him pegged all wrong. Alex does not think slowly, he's just not at all impetuous.

Gosh, Hudson, another critical post about Boardies... where will it end? Let's be kind to each other, come on folks!
IMHO omgwheelhouse did a fantastic job and I recognize his deliberate, methodical style as careful and considered responses, not s-l-o-w thinking. He hit that buzzer PDQ on so many cats, he clearly knows his stuff. It's apparent he was double-checking his mental inventory on every response to avoid silly mistakes and connecting brain-to-mouth.

[harrumph]

Great post goatman! Before wikipedia-ing Wolfe I thought the Plains of Abraham were somewhere in the Biblical world.

I knew about the Plains of Abraham from the song Acadian Driftwood by The Band

The war was over and the spirit was broken
The hills were smokin' as the men withdrew
We stood on the cliffs
Oh, and watched the ships
Slowly sinking to their rendezvous
They signed a treaty and our homes were taken
Loved ones forsaken
They didn't give a damn
Try'n' to raise a family
End up the enemy
Over what went down on the plains of Abraham

Acadian driftwood
Gypsy tail wind
They call my home the land of snow
Canadian cold front movin' in
What a way to ride
Oh, what a way to go

[davey]

If a clue wanted The Butler that title would be accepted without requiring "Lee Daniels'." Alex's response was fine.

No, not really, if only because that title was the end result of legal obstinacy on the part of Warner Bros. that forbade that, or any other, film from being called, simply, "The Butler." Its full, official and only truly correct title is, therefore, "Lee Daniels's The Butler." A better analogy is required, then.

Actually, it's "Lee Daniels' The Butler." Apostrophes matter too!

To everyone here rooting for me: thanks, it really means a lot. Sorry I let us down tonight

From my limited observation, far from being hubristic, this seems more characteristic of Alex - pushing himself hard and getting down when it doesn't work out. Witness the way he hung his head at the end, despite an enormously impressive run. I'm sure his preparations for the TOC will make him even more formidable. Something for everyone but his opponents to look forward to!

[goatman]

Great post goatman! Before wikipedia-ing Wolfe I thought the Plains of Abraham were somewhere in the Biblical world.

Tyvm, yvw! Hope it helps Boardies keep these ducks lined up in a row. African countries are extremely complex fodder.
Neat lyrical reference, NHO this tune, but it brings up another fav; Acadia. Longfellow's epic poem "Evangeline" about it!

[dhkendall]

Great post goatman! Before wikipedia-ing Wolfe I thought the Plains of Abraham were somewhere in the Biblical world.

I knew about the Plains of Abraham from the song Acadian Driftwood by The Band

The Plains of Abraham is something like the Canadian Bunker Hill

[Bamaman]

Great post goatman! Before wikipedia-ing Wolfe I thought the Plains of Abraham were somewhere in the Biblical world.

I knew about the Plains of Abraham from the song Acadian Driftwood by The Band

The Plains of Abraham is something like the Canadian Bunker Hill

So what is the Canadian version of Breed's Hill?

[Bamaman]

Congrats to Alex for his great run!!! It had to end sometime, which is one of the bad things about lifting the five day limit, someone retiring undefeated was always kind of cool to me.

I would not have required a BMS on Roosevelt. He died in 1919 (not 1916) and would not have been on television, or for that matter, radio. I would have asked for a BMS on Adams. The younger Adams was Minister to Prussia when his dad was in office and would not have lived there. But their terms were close enough as he'd be a plausible guess.

I was hoping Alex would have just said Harrison on the first to die to see if that got a BMS.

I'd say Alex's TDD on Africa was a bit gutsy. Yes, he may know most of his African capitals, but he had just missed one, lucky for him the DD wasn't there. Luckily he got a pretty easy clue for his DD. Although it wasn't nearly as easy as the DD wanting to know where Lincoln was shot.

Todd overwagered in FJ. A bet of $801 locks out Monica and gives him a win on a TS. Monica's bet was even worse, keeping her below Alex's MSBIW score.

I had Twitter for FJ. I am on Instagram, but have only posted two pictures in the four months since I signed up. I don't tweet, either, but Twitter is better known and all I could come up with.

[opusthepenguin]

I would not have required a BMS on Roosevelt. He died in 1919 (not 1916) and would not have been on television, or for that matter, radio. I would have asked for a BMS on Adams. The younger Adams was Minister to Prussia when his dad was in office and would not have lived there. But their terms were close enough as he'd be a plausible guess.

The Roosevelt terms are exactly as close together. 24 years of separation in both cases.

[BigDaddyMatty]

(Of course, with his sole solve, it didn't matter. Also, he did overwager, but that didn't end up mattering either).

Todd overwagered in FJ. A bet of $801 locks out Monica and gives him a win on a TS. Monica's bet was even worse, keeping her below Alex's MSBIW score.

I disagree with your (and Keith's) analysis on this one. There is no Nash equilibrium given these scores. If Alex wagers to cover, Todd's best bet is between $801-$2,399. However, if Todd wagers $2,399, Alex's best wager--his only rational wager, actually, since it guarantees him victory--is between $0-$5,600. However, if Alex wagers $0, Todd's best bet is $8,001. And round and round we go.

To put it another way, let's assume per the historical 50% FJ! get rate that each of the eight possible FJ! R/W outcomes is equally likely. Here are the chances of victory (Monica's proper wager of $9,600 is assumed in each example):
Game 1: A: $10,401; T: $2,399
A: 50% (he wins if he is right)
T: 37.5% (WRR, WRW, WWW)
M: 12.5% (WWR)

Game 2: A: $10,401; T: $8,001
A: 62.5% (if he is right or it is a TS)
T: 25% (WRR, WRW)
M: 12.5% (WWR)

Game 3: A: $0; T: $2,399
A: 100%

Game 4: A: $0; T: $8,001
A: 50% (he wins if Todd is wrong)
T: 50% (he wins if he is right)

Either of each player's respective wagers is rational in the absence of additional information. Knowing Alex's penchant for betting on himself, I would probably have gone $2,399 were I in Todd's shoes. Then again, knowing that Alex is an elite poker player and knows that his opponents know his wagering history, one might expect him to pull the Jedi mind trick of predicting Todd's low bid and betting $0. Basically, what we're left with is this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U_eZmEiyTo0

[Vermonter]

Congrats on a great run, omgwheelhouse! It was a lot of fun watching you, and I think my girlfriend is bummed that you're engaged.

I watched last night's ep with her, and we had an amusing moment, which I'm sure a lot of people here did, too, judging from the conversation:

Monica: Who is Roosevelt?
Both of us: Which one?

[two clues later]

Alex: Who is Adams?
Both of us: WHICH ONE?

[Vermonter]

I disagree with your (and Keith's) analysis on this one. There is no Nash equilibrium given these scores. If Alex wagers to cover, Todd's best bet is between $801-$2,399. However, if Todd wagers $2,399, Alex's best wager--his only rational wager, actually, since it guarantees him victory--is between $0-$5,600. However, if Alex wagers $0, Todd's best bet is $8,001. And round and round we go.

To split hairs, there is no straight Nash equilibrium here, but there is always a mixed-strategy Nash equilibrium.

If Alex wagers zero, Todd's best bet is everything, not $8,001. More money on the upside, same result on the downside (this is the concept of dominance). The all-in wager also covers the equally rational $5,599 wager out of Alex, which is why I gave Todd the "red" grade.

[Leaper]

Arrrrgggghhh I was SO SURE it was Tumblr! I was even about to tweet smugly about it!

Ditto. It turns out it doesn't fit the details (it was founded in 2007, was acquired by Yahoo! in 2013, and had advertising revenue starting in 2012), but I think it was a reasonable guess (of course) from the broad strokes.

[Linear Gnome]

To put it another way, let's assume per the historical 50% FJ! get rate that each of the eight possible FJ! R/W outcomes is equally likely.

This is not a valid assumption because it does not take into consideration the fact that the events are not independent--there are many RRR's on easy clues and WWW's on hard clues. This is why the two most common outcomes almost every season are WWW and RRR (this season is a bit of an outlier with WWW far outpacing all others so far, followed by RWW). Look at the FJ! Round statistics on the archive for more details.

Did get Instagram, have never used it (and do not have a Twitter account, though I read it occasionally).

I'm going to add my kudos to Alex--there have been players I thought had more raw trivia knowledge, but few, if any, players who did a better job of managing their game play and getting the most out of what they do know.

[Silverfox]

Alex ...sorry to see you go. It was fun watching your run.
FJ.. I started with Instagram but changed it to Twitter. Not good.

[Spiny Norman]

Kudos to Alex on a great run that garnered a lot of attention for him and the show! I hope to meet him at O'Briens when he is back in the LA area for the ToC.

But I knew that he would lose when I saw his red shirt. Any long time tv viewer knows that red shirts get killed. Call it Roddenberry's Law since it happened so frequently on Star Trek.

[TenPoundHammer]

Still unanswered:

[WLT sidewalks on Obesity for $200? There are lots of things that a town could be built without that might factor into obesity. I almost WAGged "parks".