BigDaddyMatty wrote:I'll take up for Jake's last DD wager. You guys are going on about how he could have put the game out of reach. Attempting to do so would have been very risky. At the time of the DD, the scores were $21,400/$7,600/$5,800 with $6,400 left to play on the board. In order to guarantee a lockout Jake would have had to wager more than $6,600, which means he loses his lock if he's wrong. Instead, he took his chances that his opponent wouldn't run the table. It was a high-percentage play.
I'm not sure I follow you. It sounds like you're saying he didn't go for the guaranteed lock on the chance that he'd end up with a lock anyway. Betting $6,400 would guarantee a lock on a get AND leave him with a guaranteed lead going into FJ even if he missed. The only thing he was risking was that Scott might get within 2/3 of that lead and be able to win on a miss. That wasn't terribly likely. (Although if he'd bet $6400 and missed and everything else had played out the same, it would have happened.) And risking letting your opponent get within 2/3 isn't a huge risk when there's a lock on the upside.
That sounds like a low risk move for a high payoff.
Having run the numbers, I think it's more or less a wash, with a slight advantage to betting small. Here are my (somewhat spitballed) assumptions and calculations:
Win rates:
Lock: 100%
Crush: 80%
2/3: 50%
DJ!-round DD get rate for a player in Jake's position: 75%
With a $1,000 bet, I estimate that Jake has a 90% chance of holding his lock if he responds correctly and an 80% chance of doing so if he does not. The other 10%/20% leads to a crush. That's a 97.5% chance of victory.
With a $6,601 bet, Jake has a guaranteed lock with a correct response. If he misses, I estimate the outcome probabilities to be 50% lock, 30% crush, 20% 2/3. That gives him a 96% chance of victory.
debramc wrote:Do you think they'd have taken just "Lawrence of Arabia"? Somehow I never can remember his initials - I just know they're not DH.
Lawrence was his last name so they should. It is what I wrote down.
Oh I guess that makes sense. I just always get anxious because they're inconsistent about when to demand a BMS. And then FJ! is scary because you have to decide the specificity.
BigDaddyMatty wrote:
Having run the numbers, I think it's more or less a wash, with a slight advantage to betting small. Here are my (somewhat spitballed) assumptions and calculations:
Win rates:
Lock: 100%
Crush: 80%
2/3: 50%
DJ!-round DD get rate for a player in Jake's position: 75%
With a $1,000 bet, I estimate that Jake has a 90% chance of holding his lock if he responds correctly and an 80% chance of doing so if he does not. The other 10%/20% leads to a crush. That's a 97.5% chance of victory.
With a $6,601 bet, Jake has a guaranteed lock with a correct response. If he misses, I estimate the outcome probabilities to be 50% lock, 30% crush, 20% 2/3. That gives him a 96% chance of victory.
Agree- probably pretty hard to really determine what the real win% rates are here, clearly he was pretty unlucky with Scott's run at the end. I have sense that something like 3,000 would increase the lock enough without sacrificing the crush much and may be "optimal" but too many variables that we can only guess at here (particularly Scott making a run like he did).
And weird as it sounds somewhere around 30-40% of players massively overbet their 2/3 situation and allow 1st to win on a double miss. Win % from first is probably more like 60% due to that error.
Jake Smith: $22,800-$3,500=$19,300
Scott Lord: $13,200+$13,200=$26,400...now a 2-day champion with $55,401
Eliza Thompson: $6,200-$6,200=$0
I agree betting it all from second is the right move. Jake's MSBIW is $19,199, so you could argue a bet of $6,000 would be smart as it wins if you are right and he is wrong and makes the MSB. It also protects your hold on second place.
But if the leader makes a bad bet like he did here, you are screwed. Or he might bet zero if he hated the category and was betting on you missing it.
reggia09 wrote:Hi everyone! I'm new to the forum...
I missed hearing completely one of the question/answers. Can someone please tell me what the question or answer about the French phrase? It may have had something to do with language.
nserven wrote:I got FJ right, but my first thought was Howard Carter (discovered King Tut's tomb in 1922).
Never thought of him, but that's at least a better response than "Churchill, who was already finished with his education and a Boer War veteran by the 1909 date in this clue." Carter would likely fit the time line better. But the clue did say that he went back to the Middle East for (what was it?) "less peaceful" pursuits That suggests a warrior, and I don't think Carter was.
He wasn't. Just finished reading The Visitors by Sally Beauman, an historical novel in which Carter is a major character. No sign of his being a warrior there.
TheSunWillComeOut wrote:I'm blanking on the name of the place, can anyone think of a locally well-known pie shop in the vicinity of the Sony area?
Marie Callender's?
Coco's on Sepulveda Blvd in Culver City.
Mmmmmm. Also a good choice. What kind of pie? At Marie's I would've gone with boysenberry. At Coco's, Toll House. Warm. But you really can't go wrong if you just gesture with your drumsticks and say BRING ME PIE! They know what they're doing.
TheSunWillComeOut wrote:I'm blanking on the name of the place, can anyone think of a locally well-known pie shop in the vicinity of the Sony area?
Marie Callender's?
Coco's on Sepulveda Blvd in Culver City.
Mmmmmm. Also a good choice. What kind of pie? At Marie's I would've gone with boysenberry. At Coco's, Toll House. Warm. But you really can't go wrong if you just gesture with your drumsticks and say BRING ME PIE! They know what they're doing.
It should be noted for the benefit of TCONA attendees that there is a Coco's within walking distance of the Tropicana Hotel (just past the Hooters Hotel on East Trop).
Jake looks kind of like my co-worker Evan would if he were about 40.
Lach Trash: Labor.
I thought "whale oil" was undervalued at $200. Couldn't think of any animal product that could be used for fuel.
Also, NHO that Babe whomever in Non-Depressing for $200.
Somehow was thinking "patisserie" on "Pat" for $600, but didn't pull the trigger since I didn't know if it was actually a word or just some random gibberish that my brain coughed up.
Precalled "Born This Way" and "Born to Be Wild" in "Born" to Be a Song. Took a chance on running the category with "Born to Die" and got it!
All but "titans" in Transition.
No idea on FJ! I still know nothing about T. E. Lawrence from the last time he came up.
TenPoundHammer wrote:I thought "whale oil" was undervalued at $200. Couldn't think of any animal product that could be used for fuel.
It's what was used before we learned how extract petroleum in a commercially viable manner. Read the Wikipedia page on Titusville, PA for more information.
TenPoundHammer wrote:Also, NHO that Babe whomever in Non-Depressing for $200.
Babe Didrikson Zaharias (acceptable on J! with either last name or both) is generally considered the most dominant female athlete of all time. If the clue calls for an old-timey female athlete, it's nearly always Babe.
TheSunWillComeOut wrote:I'm blanking on the name of the place, can anyone think of a locally well-known pie shop in the vicinity of the Sony area?
Marie Callender's?
Coco's on Sepulveda Blvd in Culver City.
Mmmmmm. Also a good choice. What kind of pie? At Marie's I would've gone with boysenberry. At Coco's, Toll House. Warm. But you really can't go wrong if you just gesture with your drumsticks and say BRING ME PIE! They know what they're doing.
I forgot exactly what but it was chocolatey and delicious. I seem to recall a very good veggie burger as well.
