Tuesday, December 20, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

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Re: Tuesday, December 20, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by rpg » Wed Dec 21, 2016 4:09 am

My initial reaction at that DD bet was similar, but after some reflection I'm not sure it's as obviously bad as I first thought.

From last season's stats, say she's got about a 2/3 chance of getting the DD correct. Let's say as well that the leader has about a 55% chance to get FJ correct (also the number from last season). Of 224 games last season, 40 of them (about 18%) had second place getting FJ with the leader missing it (ie a crush wins 82% of the time).

Then betting small means you've got a 100% chance of a crush, so an 82% chance of winning. Betting big means a 2/3 chance for a lock and a 1/3 chance for 55% odds going into final, which is 2/3 * 100% + 1/3 * 55% = 85% chance of winning. Those aren't actually much different and the difference is probably within the error for those parameters. The big bet is still better, particularly since your odds of winning final are probably a bit higher than 55% since second place suicide wagers often. Still, I don't think it's actually a huge error.

Probably more important was the first DD of the DJ round when she had 14,600 and Cindy had 10,800. She bet 2k, but a bigger bet of around 4k or 5k or so was called for, I think. That would have given her enough breathing room on the second DD to get the lock without risking her crush.

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Re: Tuesday, December 20, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by IronNeck » Wed Dec 21, 2016 4:31 am

rpg wrote:My initial reaction at that DD bet was similar, but after some reflection I'm not sure it's as obviously bad as I first thought.

From last season's stats, say she's got about a 2/3 chance of getting the DD correct. Let's say as well that the leader has about a 55% chance to get FJ correct (also the number from last season). Of 224 games last season, 40 of them (about 18%) had second place getting FJ with the leader missing it (ie a crush wins 82% of the time).

Then betting small means you've got a 100% chance of a crush, so an 82% chance of winning. Betting big means a 2/3 chance for a lock and a 1/3 chance for 55% odds going into final, which is 2/3 * 100% + 1/3 * 55% = 85% chance of winning. Those aren't actually much different and the difference is probably within the error for those parameters. The big bet is still better, particularly since your odds of winning final are probably a bit higher than 55% since second place suicide wagers often. Still, I don't think it's actually a huge error.
I applaud you for crunching the numbers in your argument, something I rarely see from others, but your analysis has a few errors.

1. If Julia misses the last DD while betting $5,001, her chances of victory are much higher than 55%. In fact, I'm not sure where you're getting the 55% figure from.

Are you assuming that unless Julia gets the FJ correct from the lead, she automatically loses? That's incorrect.

As you noted yourself, when 1st place gets it wrong, 2nd place gets it right a mere 18% of the time. Now, yes, without a crush, there is also a scenario where Cindy can bet small and win in the case of both getting them wrong. But that's assuming both the small bet by Cindy and a cover wager from Julia, neither of which is close to a certainty.

In reality, with 3rd place a distant memory, Julia's chances of victory are between 55 and 82%. Based off some previous calculations, I would say it's about 70%.

Merely taking this into account, Julia's chances of victory with the correct $5,001 last DD bet become 90%.

90% versus 82% is actually pretty huge in Jeopardy terms.

2. One should factor in that Julia is a strong, very knowledgeable contestant.

Notice that even a lot of people averaging $35k+ Coryats on this board didn't get all 3 DDs, as Julia did. Or the fact that she hitting almost $24k in Coryat in a debut episode against a super-champion is unusual and impressive.

If the average DD get rate is about 65% (slightly skewed towards stronger players, for obvious reasons) and Ken Jennings was hitting slightly above 83%, it's fair to assume that Julia is somewhere in the 70-75% range.

Assuming 70%, her chances of victory with the correct $5,001 last DD bet become 91%. At 75%, we're talking 92.5%.

Again, the difference between 91-92.5% and your 85%, or the 82% of Julia's actual decision might not seem huge, but in Jeopardy terms, it is.

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Re: Tuesday, December 20, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by rpg » Wed Dec 21, 2016 4:46 am

IronNeck wrote: 1. If Julia misses the last DD while betting $5,001, her chances of victory are much higher than 55%. In fact, I'm not sure where you're getting the 55% figure from.

Are you assuming that unless Julia gets the FJ correct from the lead, she automatically loses? That's incorrect.

As you noted yourself, when 1st place gets it wrong, 2nd place gets it right a mere 18% of the time. Now, yes, without a crush, there is also a scenario where Cindy can bet small and win in the case of both getting them wrong. But that's assuming both the small bet by Cindy and a cover wager from Julia, neither of which is close to a certainty.

In reality, with 3rd place a distant memory, Julia's chances of victory are between 55 and 82%. Based off some previous calculations, I would say it's about 70%.
Yes, I'm assuming that if she gets it wrong, she loses. That's true with a rational wager from second place. Julia is pretty much always making the covering bet (and we're analyzing this from her POV anyway); I mentioned the possibility of a suicide wager in my post as a mitigating factor.
If the average DD get rate is about 65% (slightly skewed towards stronger players, for obvious reasons) and Ken Jennings was hitting slightly above 83%, it's fair to assume that Julia is somewhere in the 70-75% range.

Assuming 70%, her chances of victory with the correct $5,001 last DD bet become 91%. At 75%, we're talking 92.5%.
I don't actually think that's a fair assumption based on the data for a single game.

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Re: Tuesday, December 20, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by IronNeck » Wed Dec 21, 2016 6:24 am

rpg wrote:
IronNeck wrote: 1. If Julia misses the last DD while betting $5,001, her chances of victory are much higher than 55%. In fact, I'm not sure where you're getting the 55% figure from.

Are you assuming that unless Julia gets the FJ correct from the lead, she automatically loses? That's incorrect.

As you noted yourself, when 1st place gets it wrong, 2nd place gets it right a mere 18% of the time. Now, yes, without a crush, there is also a scenario where Cindy can bet small and win in the case of both getting them wrong. But that's assuming both the small bet by Cindy and a cover wager from Julia, neither of which is close to a certainty.

In reality, with 3rd place a distant memory, Julia's chances of victory are between 55 and 82%. Based off some previous calculations, I would say it's about 70%.
Yes, I'm assuming that if she gets it wrong, she loses. That's true with a rational wager from second place. Julia is pretty much always making the covering bet (and we're analyzing this from her POV anyway); I mentioned the possibility of a suicide wager in my post as a mitigating factor.
A small bet from second place is not "rational". There are no Nash equilibria here and neither the small wager nor the "suicide" wager dominate the other. Both are valid options.

In some instances, depending on where third place is, and how close 1st and 2nd are, the "suicide" wager even has a higher expected value. And of course, some categories lend themselves to higher get rates than others, encouraging the higher wager.

You're also assuming that 1st place automatically makes the cover bet. Again, this isn't the case. Seth Wilson is an example of a high-profile champion that didn't always cover from 1st, but there have been others.

If you don't believe me, feel free to calculate up all the times that 2nd place finished ahead of 1st in a non-crush situation. It's going to be a lot less than 45%, that's for certain.
rpg wrote:
If the average DD get rate is about 65% (slightly skewed towards stronger players, for obvious reasons) and Ken Jennings was hitting slightly above 83%, it's fair to assume that Julia is somewhere in the 70-75% range.

Assuming 70%, her chances of victory with the correct $5,001 last DD bet become 91%. At 75%, we're talking 92.5%.
I don't actually think that's a fair assumption based on the data for a single game.
[/QUOTE]

We don't know exactly how good she was from a single game, that's true, but to say that she is a lot stronger than the average contestant, and probably better than the average champion is reasonable given her performance along a very broad range of categories.

MarkBarrett mentioned the great Julia Collins earlier in the topic. Do you know how many times she matched or exceeded a $23,600 Coryat during her initial 21 games on the show?

Only 3 times, in her 15th, 16th, and 19th games. In other words, it's a rare occurrence, even for the best.

If you're only watching a single NBA game and you see someone put up 40 points, there's a very small possibility that it's a bench scrub having the night of his life. But more likely, it's a star.

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Re: Tuesday, December 20, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by Leander » Wed Dec 21, 2016 6:55 am

bengland wrote:Am I the only person who got Maryland by remembering Phelps' drunk driving arrest was in Baltimore?

Amazed that such a well-prepared and game show experienced player failed to make the right DD bet at the end. So glad she did. Made my second contribution to CRI after this thrilling win.
The DD arrest was the key for me, but Maryland was still a guess since I wasn't sure Phelps still lived there.

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Re: Tuesday, December 20, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by dhkendall » Wed Dec 21, 2016 7:00 am

Surprised this was a TS as we know this taped in late August or early Sept, much closer to the Olympics than we are. (One of those "easier for the contestants than us" clues, the opposite of the Thanksgiving Final.). I remembered that fact well when the Games were on butvhad to dredge it up now. (Eventually got it). Had I been playing, it would have been easier.

And how did I go 5/5 on a sports category (SPORTS NO-NOS) and 4/5 on a US politics category (about state representatives, only answering Rubio for Bush on $800)?
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Re: Tuesday, December 20, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by IronNeck » Wed Dec 21, 2016 7:10 am

dhkendall wrote:Surprised this was a TS as we know this taped in late August or early Sept, much closer to the Olympics than we are.
It wasn't a TS. Cindy got the sole solve.

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Re: Tuesday, December 20, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by dpj626 » Wed Dec 21, 2016 7:16 am

Golf wrote:This was a flat out nasty sports clue. I confidently and sadly stated it would be a TS, then when Cindy pulled the answer I knew she had won. Plenty of Sports J contestants couldn't have told you where Phelps and/or Ledecky were from.

This story just keeps getting more amazing.
Instaget FJ! Disclaimer: I live in Virginia and this was all over the local media.

Amazing story.

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Re: Tuesday, December 20, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by morbeedo » Wed Dec 21, 2016 8:02 am

Johnblue wrote:As TPH noted, we're all Cindy fans! I was worried that the anti-car lady was going to win so Cindy's win was doubly sweet. Phelps is the greatest Olympian ever & ive read about him previously. Plus one of his previous girlfriends is friends with my niece who lives in Columbia.
I don't think she's anti-car, rather anti pedestrians and cyclists getting killed by reckless drivers. #VisionZero

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Re: Tuesday, December 20, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by morbeedo » Wed Dec 21, 2016 8:04 am

Woke up this morning thinking who the hell cares where Michael Phelps and Katie Ledecky are from?? For such an exciting game to be decided by that clue is a little frustrating. Thrilled to see Cindy win, but too bad Julia can't come back another day and let the buzz saw fly again.

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Re: Tuesday, December 20, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by Leander » Wed Dec 21, 2016 8:08 am

dpj626 wrote:
Golf wrote:This was a flat out nasty sports clue. I confidently and sadly stated it would be a TS, then when Cindy pulled the answer I knew she had won. Plenty of Sports J contestants couldn't have told you where Phelps and/or Ledecky were from.

This story just keeps getting more amazing.
Instaget FJ! Disclaimer: I live in Virginia and this was all over the local media.

Amazing story.
There should be a weekly poll question: I don't live in Maryland or Virginia and got this FJ.

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Re: Tuesday, December 20, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by hbomb1947 » Wed Dec 21, 2016 8:33 am

morbeedo wrote:
Johnblue wrote:As TPH noted, we're all Cindy fans! I was worried that the anti-car lady was going to win so Cindy's win was doubly sweet. Phelps is the greatest Olympian ever & ive read about him previously. Plus one of his previous girlfriends is friends with my niece who lives in Columbia.
I don't think she's anti-car, rather anti pedestrians and cyclists getting killed by reckless drivers. #VisionZero
Yeah, it was Alex who brought up the idea of getting rid of cars, and Julia went along with it, which could have just been out of a reluctance to trigger the curse of disagreeing with him. So that's a really silly reason for anyone to have rooted against her (aside from the fact that many people who actually live in Manhattan, like me, would think that getting rid of cars on this island -- with exceptions, of course, like taxis, Ubers, and delivery trucks -- would be a good thing. Very few residents use personal motor vehicles to get around, anyway; those who have their own cars largely use them to drive out of the city on weekends and for similar purposes. At the very least, reducing automotive traffic in Manhattan, such as with former Mayor Bloomberg's congestion pricing initiative that deserved to do better, would be a worthy goal. So now that I've said that, JohnBlue can root against me if I ever get on the show. :) ). But in any event, Julia never said she was working to ban cars from the borough, just that she was trying to make roads safer for people who aren't in cars. I would like to see her do something about all the cyclists who disobey traffic laws (driving the wrong way, riding through red lights, etc.), which puts pedestrians at risk; but I digress.

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Re: Tuesday, December 20, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by This Is Kirk! » Wed Dec 21, 2016 10:41 am

IronNeck wrote:Missed FJ badly. I knew Phelps was one of the athletes, but only knew that he attended Stanford
Actually he didn't. He went to Michigan. His coach in Baltimore, Bob Bowman, took the coaching position at U of M and Michael followed him there. Since Michael was a pro he couldn't swim on the Michigan team, but he did train there during Bowman's tenure.

Katie Ledecky, however, is a current Stanford athlete. Despite her incredible performances at the last two Olympics she decided to retain her amateur status (not easy) and remained eligible for NCAA competition. She's now a freshman and kicking butt, as you could imagine.

Anyone who knows me would assume I'd get this FJ instantly, but it actually took a few seconds primarily because my pre-call was Simone Biles and I was trying to think if there had been a male athlete from Texas that would have won four gold medals in Rio. I pretty quickly realized "oh, wait, Phelps and Ledecky..."

Here's a photo I took of Phelps when he swam at Nationals in Seattle last year. The NBAC on his cap is North Baltimore Aquatic Club. Too bad I didn't post this yesterday. ;)
Image
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Re: Tuesday, December 20, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by John Boy » Wed Dec 21, 2016 10:45 am

MinnesotaMyron wrote:I feel like today's FJ is vaguely worded and could have broken bad. But another sole get from Cindy renders those concerns moot. Incredible.
Clue seemed to me to say exactly what it was asking for. Not sure why anyone would have THAT problem. Knowing what state Phelps is from, well, that's another matter.

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Re: Tuesday, December 20, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by John Boy » Wed Dec 21, 2016 10:48 am

And the champ continues to amaze, in far more than the usual great-champion way.

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Re: Tuesday, December 20, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by dpj626 » Wed Dec 21, 2016 12:00 pm

Leander wrote:
dpj626 wrote:
Golf wrote:This was a flat out nasty sports clue. I confidently and sadly stated it would be a TS, then when Cindy pulled the answer I knew she had won. Plenty of Sports J contestants couldn't have told you where Phelps and/or Ledecky were from.

This story just keeps getting more amazing.
Instaget FJ! Disclaimer: I live in Virginia and this was all over the local media.

Amazing story.
There should be a weekly poll question: I don't live in Maryland or Virginia and got this FJ.
I assure everyone I was not trying to be snarky. It wasn't the easiest FJ clue.

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Re: Tuesday, December 20, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by Kenny » Wed Dec 21, 2016 1:48 pm

John Boy wrote:
MinnesotaMyron wrote:I feel like today's FJ is vaguely worded and could have broken bad. But another sole get from Cindy renders those concerns moot. Incredible.
Clue seemed to me to say exactly what it was asking for. Not sure why anyone would have THAT problem. Knowing what state Phelps is from, well, that's another matter.
My problem with the FJ clue would be the same with any of them asking what state a given sports/entertainment celebrity is "from." Many female Olympic gymnastics champions in the past two decades (e.g. Simone Biles) were living in Texas at the time they won their medals, due to the Karolyi Ranch being in Spring, north of Houston. That doesn't mean they were "from Texas."

In Phelps's case, he clearly grew up and lived in metro Baltimore, so that's not an issue. I just don't like it when clues like this are so vague, as to make a contestant wonder if it's asking where the athlete grew up, trained, went to college or currently lives. Those might all be different states.

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Re: Tuesday, December 20, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by mfc248 » Wed Dec 21, 2016 3:07 pm

I figured the male athlete had to be Phelps, and that was enough to get me to Maryland with no good reason to swerve. But the only name that came to mind for the female athlete was one I haven't seen thus far on this thread - sprinter Allyson Felix. (She has six gold medals overall, but only two were won in Rio.) Despite the correct response, I kicked myself a bit for not remembering Ledecky - particularly considering that's not the only context in which that surname is familiar to me (Katie's uncle Jon recently became co-owner of the New York Islanders).

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Re: Tuesday, December 20, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by Stanislaus Jacob » Wed Dec 21, 2016 3:44 pm

Kenny wrote:
John Boy wrote:
MinnesotaMyron wrote:I feel like today's FJ is vaguely worded and could have broken bad. But another sole get from Cindy renders those concerns moot. Incredible.
Clue seemed to me to say exactly what it was asking for. Not sure why anyone would have THAT problem. Knowing what state Phelps is from, well, that's another matter.
My problem with the FJ clue would be the same with any of them asking what state a given sports/entertainment celebrity is "from." Many female Olympic gymnastics champions in the past two decades (e.g. Simone Biles) were living in Texas at the time they won their medals, due to the Karolyi Ranch being in Spring, north of Houston. That doesn't mean they were "from Texas."

In Phelps's case, he clearly grew up and lived in metro Baltimore, so that's not an issue. I just don't like it when clues like this are so vague, as to make a contestant wonder if it's asking where the athlete grew up, trained, went to college or currently lives. Those might all be different states.
Good thing Biles was not connected to the right answer! Sorry to be snarky like that, but since both of the people in question seem to have lived their whole lives in Maryland (save for their times in college, in which neither was enrolled at the time of the Olympics), I see no point in lamenting that the clue might have been ambiguous if it had been about a completely different person.

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Re: Tuesday, December 20, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by This Is Kirk! » Wed Dec 21, 2016 4:04 pm

Stanislaus Jacob wrote:since both of the people in question seem to have lived their whole lives in Maryland (save for their times in college, in which neither was enrolled at the time of the Olympics)
Not true. Prior to Rio, Phelps had been living and training in Arizona (Tempe). He was there at least a year before the Olympics.

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