Bamaman wrote:Other than this show, I have never heard of that play or the movie. Given the name of the clue, I wrote down Santa Claus just to have something.
I thought the new champ bet too small on the DD. The scores were :
There was one $2,000 clue left on the board. While his bet of $3,000 gets him into second place, he can still be passed if she gets the last clue. He is within striking distance of first, but he would need to get the last one right. He is out of contention is he misses the DD, so he might as well go all in (or all but a dollar) and hope he can hang on to first through the last clue, which he wouldn't have, but that's beside the point.
My thoughts were that he did still leave himself a lot of ways to win with that bet, whether he was right or wrong on the DD. He still had a chance to take the lead if he got the final 2000 clue, and if Jacob got the final clue, he would retake the lead anyway even if Joel did make it a true DD. The wager he made also left himself at least some chance to win if he missed the DD, which he would not have had if he had bet all or nearly all of his 5400. Looking at all the different possibilities...
If he misses, then the scores are 9700, 7800, 2400. If he gets the last clue to jump to 4800, then he still has a chance to win, and likely would have with his sole get on FJ. If Cindy gets the last clue, then the leaders are 9800-9700, which would likely mean that Jacob becomes a 4-day champion if Cindy makes the shutout bet and Jacob bets low enough to lock out Joel. If Jacob gets the final 2000 clue, which he did, then the scores are 11700-7800-2400, and Joel has no chance to win with proper wagering. If the final 2000 clue is a TS, then Joel should
be unable to win in FJ, if Cindy bets to keep him locked out, however, he would be able to top Jacob on the sole get if he makes the MSB, so it would come down to Cindy's wager whether she or Joel was the winner.
So while his chances to win were still pretty slim if he lost 3000 on the DD, they were still better than if he dropped to 0, and since he couldn't be assured of the lead with that last 2000 still on the board, he didn't have all that much to be gained by betting an additional 2400 on the DD. I certainly wouldn't claim that someone was making a mistake by going TDD in that spot, but looking at all the possible outcomes, I don't think his wager was bad at all, and may have actually been quite shrewd.