Thursday, July 5, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

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Re: Thursday, July 5, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion (SPOILERS)

Postby ronk » Fri Jul 06, 2012 4:48 am

Austin Powers wrote:Tungsten also a surprise TS. I was also surprised that as a group they didn't run actors - the TS on Chris Hemsworth was especially surprising. Ok Turturro I understand, it's an older movie and seen less than it is referred to.

Didn't know Tungsten. Chris Hemsworth -- see previous post. Turturro -- I could see his face, just couldn't pull the name in time. I knew Jackboots and agonized over it. I think I was scared by missing so many the day before.

Austin Powers wrote:BTW I am assuming they just forgot about the DD because there was no hunting there at the end. IIRC his bet actually took him out of range of first. Not that it mattered.

Can't speak for the others, but I didn't have control much the second half of DJ, the one time I did the $1600 question was next in line. Chris and Stephanie (in particular) smoked me on the buzzer. Couldn't get in to save my life.

Austin Powers wrote:So the bets were terrible, first has to bet to cover, second has to bet to at least hop ahead of first, and third was probably bad too if I bothered to look into it.

I've been waiting 4 months for this. Contestant wrangler Glenn was standing right next to me the entire time I was trying to figure out my wager. It's not his fault, but I definitely was feeling the pressure. I didn't know whether to try to cover Chris or to play the "Stephanie will make the MSB so I need to have enough left if it's a TS." Just as I was pressing the "button" to lock in the amount, I noticed how my bet was leaving me $200 short of Stephanie, so why not just add 200?. Immediately after pressing the button I turned to Glenn and said "can I change this (I knew I couldn't)?" He said "no," of course.

I still don't understand why my bet was so awful. I see so many posts here where contestants in 2nd or 3rd place are called to task for "leaving $1000 on the table," so I bet to lock out Chris, and if Stephanie made the MSB I was good on a TS. If we both got it right I expected to lose. If she bet only $100 because she saw me bet to cover 3rd by a dollar and expected it again (as was suggested), she's way smarter than me, but I'm beginning to think that that's what she did. Of course, on the way home all I could think about was why did I care so much about not ending up in third? I'd already won yesterday, it shouldn't have been (and isn't, truthfully) that important to me. Anyway, maybe someone can (gently) explain it to me.
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Re: Thursday, July 5, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion (SPOILERS)

Postby BobF » Fri Jul 06, 2012 6:15 am

xxaaaxx wrote:Figures that the all-in suicide wager would've won.

For FJ I spent a bunch of time trying to think of geographical reasons why such a low % of residents would be drivers, then gave up and WAGged NY. In hindsight, it makes sense, with all the mass transit, but 58% still seems awfully low. Those 58% sure do clog up the roads.

Also, a moment of silence for all the Daily Doubles that Chris flushed down the toilet :roll:


It's clogged to some extent by drivers from NJ, Conn., and sometimes even PA. Plus tourists.
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Re: Thursday, July 5, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion (SPOILERS)

Postby BobF » Fri Jul 06, 2012 6:20 am

Vanya wrote:
dhkendall wrote: Never occurred to guess New York, simply because every time I see pictures of New York streets, they're always packed with cars.


Yeahbut, they are mostly taxis (13,000 of 'em):

My brother lives in Queens, and drives to work (also in Queens). But nearly everyone I have met from NYC does not know how to drive. Easy FJ.

Having grown up near NYC, I can tell you that many of the licensed drivers also do not know how to drive. :-)
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Re: Thursday, July 5, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion (SPOILERS)

Postby fowlerism » Fri Jul 06, 2012 9:24 am

jeff6286 wrote:If someone can find a more recent list, please post a link, as my google searching has come up empty thus far.

http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/statistics/2009/dl1c.cfm

These data are from 2009. Second column from the end. Not sortable, but you can download as an Excel spreadsheet. I think this is the source they used, or something derived from it. This chart also has a separate column that only includes the driving age population, which is interesting; I'm not sure how some states have more than 1000 people licensed per 1000 people of driving age.

Some other interesting trends, too. Apparently Alaska has the highest male/female driver ratio (makes some kind of sense), and Oklahoma the lowest (beats me).
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Re: Thursday, July 5, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion (SPOILERS)

Postby John Boy » Fri Jul 06, 2012 9:26 am

Budphrey wrote:

This wasn't a Shore's Conjecture scenario, but I can see how Stephanie might have used something akin to Shoretegic logic to arrive at her wager: guessing that the 2nd-place player would wager only to beat a doubling of the third-place player's score, then wagering small enough to guarantee herself a win if her guess was correct.


That's all I can figure too. Plus perhaps combined with a not-very-good feeling about the category? Whatever went into her thinking, it worked this time. I still can just not imagine going into FJ with a lead and NOT wagering to cover a doubling bet from 2nd. Those suicide wagers are so common. Perhaps she saw Ron's first game and saw that his wagering from 2nd place was exactly right, and concluded that he would not be one to needlessly go all in from a trailing position.

In FJ my first thought was actually Florida, with millions of retired persons who may not still be driving. I quickly pooh-poohed that idea and thought of NYC's mass transit to come up with the right answer. Still it's hard to imagine an entire state where 40% of the population of driving age do not have licenses. Any place I've lived is just so, well, not New York.

Picked up a few nice TSs with "slip out the back, Jack," jackboots, and tungsten. Now 4/4 on FJ this week...can I score a rare perfecto??? Stay tuned.
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Re: Thursday, July 5, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion (SPOILERS)

Postby Vanya » Fri Jul 06, 2012 9:37 am

In my limited experience, the worst city to drive in is Chicago.
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Re: Thursday, July 5, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion (SPOILERS)

Postby Austin Powers » Fri Jul 06, 2012 9:37 am

ronk wrote:I've been waiting 4 months for this. Contestant wrangler Glenn was standing right next to me the entire time I was trying to figure out my wager. It's not his fault, but I definitely was feeling the pressure. I didn't know whether to try to cover Chris or to play the "Stephanie will make the MSB so I need to have enough left if it's a TS." Just as I was pressing the "button" to lock in the amount, I noticed how my bet was leaving me $200 short of Stephanie, so why not just add 200?. Immediately after pressing the button I turned to Glenn and said "can I change this (I knew I couldn't)?" He said "no," of course.

I still don't understand why my bet was so awful. I see so many posts here where contestants in 2nd or 3rd place are called to task for "leaving $1000 on the table," so I bet to lock out Chris, and if Stephanie made the MSB I was good on a TS. If we both got it right I expected to lose. If she bet only $100 because she saw me bet to cover 3rd by a dollar and expected it again (as was suggested), she's way smarter than me, but I'm beginning to think that that's what she did. Of course, on the way home all I could think about was why did I care so much about not ending up in third? I'd already won yesterday, it shouldn't have been (and isn't, truthfully) that important to me. Anyway, maybe someone can (gently) explain it to me.


Well, the good news, if you bet "correctly" you would have still lost, so don't beat yourself over it. I view it this way - imagine what would have happened had she been wrong. You, though correct, would have still lost. And that would really, really stink.

The only way to guarantee that doesn't happen is to bet one dollar - or more - past what she currently has. This covers the situation - and this has happened - where leader sits pat, perhaps because a category like Facts and Figures seems hopelessly broad.

So I would have bet $2601 if I were you. It's true, missing it puts you down to $7399 - but third still has to get it right to hop ahead of you, then, and he will probably bet enough to do that (here, he didn't, he seemed extremely risk averse, but without getting too off the subject a $1000 bet for him could be justified since it covers a situation where you go all in, the leader bets based on you going all in, and both of you miss, leaving him the winner by $1 if my math is right). Worrying about third is of course very sensible, but I think you have to take the approach that he could easily bet enough to hop past $10,000, anyway, so if you miss it and he gets it right you're just done regardless, so bet to cover him plus hop ahead of the leader.

First place, presumably, bets enough to cover, so any miss by her is disastrous and leaves her in a spot where she cannot win, regardless of your answer, because of your bet of $2601.

But that's where it gets crazy. Cagey or crazy, she bet only $100. This is an interesting move, since it undercuts that element behind 2nd's betting. On one hand, she could answer right and lose, and that seems crazy. On the other, missing the question is not a disaster for her. So, essentially, she is betting to miss the question by betting $100. Her "pre-test" probability led her to conclude this was a tough category and that it was better to bet defensively.

My guess is, and others have surmised, that she was aware from your previous game and other games of the strategy of second betting $1 past someone ahead of you, and she did that, judging that was your style. So I take back a little about her bet being "terrible" - but it is still awfully inadvisable if you ask me. Most 2nd place contestants will go all in there, so she was probably playing against the odds, and leaving herself awfully exposed, as well as of course not maximizing her potential winnings.

The other thing to keep in mind is that each situation is different. Contestants are different, categories differ. A bet isn't "right" as it is "more right than it is wrong," and the situation can influence that.
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Re: Thursday, July 5, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion (SPOILERS)

Postby Vanya » Fri Jul 06, 2012 9:42 am

Austin Powers wrote:My guess is, and others have surmised, that she was aware from your previous game and other games of the strategy of second betting $1 past someone ahead of you, and she did that, judging that was your style. So I take back a little about her bet being "terrible" - but it is still awfully inadvisable if you ask me. Most 2nd place contestants will go all in there, so she was probably playing against the odds, and leaving herself awfully exposed, as well as of course not maximizing her potential winnings.


I thought contestants couldn't see games immediately preceding theirs.
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Re: Thursday, July 5, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion (SPOILERS)

Postby Austin Powers » Fri Jul 06, 2012 9:44 am

Vanya wrote:
Austin Powers wrote:My guess is, and others have surmised, that she was aware from your previous game and other games of the strategy of second betting $1 past someone ahead of you, and she did that, judging that was your style. So I take back a little about her bet being "terrible" - but it is still awfully inadvisable if you ask me. Most 2nd place contestants will go all in there, so she was probably playing against the odds, and leaving herself awfully exposed, as well as of course not maximizing her potential winnings.


I thought contestants couldn't see games immediately preceding theirs.


In a tournament, sure, but I am not sure why that would be so for the regular season.
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Re: Thursday, July 5, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion (SPOILERS)

Postby Vanya » Fri Jul 06, 2012 9:46 am

Austin Powers wrote:
Vanya wrote:
Austin Powers wrote:My guess is, and others have surmised, that she was aware from your previous game and other games of the strategy of second betting $1 past someone ahead of you, and she did that, judging that was your style. So I take back a little about her bet being "terrible" - but it is still awfully inadvisable if you ask me. Most 2nd place contestants will go all in there, so she was probably playing against the odds, and leaving herself awfully exposed, as well as of course not maximizing her potential winnings.


I thought contestants couldn't see games immediately preceding theirs.


In a tournament, sure, but I am not sure why that would be so for the regular season.


Aren't they in the green room while they wait, watching old movies? Unless Wednesday's game was taped the day before.
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Re: Thursday, July 5, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion (SPOILERS)

Postby sherder » Fri Jul 06, 2012 10:12 am

Vanya wrote:I thought contestants couldn't see games immediately preceding theirs.


I got to watch all the games leading up to when I played, but that was over five years ago.
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Re: Thursday, July 5, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion (SPOILERS)

Postby Bamaman » Fri Jul 06, 2012 10:24 am

FJ reminded me of an episode of Law & Order I saw a few weeks ago. Some big name child abuser had gotten out on parole and was run over by a car right after he got out. so the cops started investigating people connected to his case. In an interview with the judge, they asked where he was when the killing happened. He said he didn't even have a license and said "I'm a New Yorker, I don't drive".

Can't say seeing that led me to focus on NY, but it certainly didn't hurt.
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Re: Thursday, July 5, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion (SPOILERS)

Postby hbomb1947 » Fri Jul 06, 2012 10:59 am

Austin Powers wrote:
But that's where it gets crazy. Cagey or crazy, she bet only $100. This is an interesting move, since it undercuts that element behind 2nd's betting. On one hand, she could answer right and lose, and that seems crazy. On the other, missing the question is not a disaster for her. So, essentially, she is betting to miss the question by betting $100. Her "pre-test" probability led her to conclude this was a tough category and that it was better to bet defensively.
My guess is, and others have surmised, that she was aware from your previous game and other games of the strategy of second betting $1 past someone ahead of you, and she did that, judging that was your style. So I take back a little about her bet being "terrible" - but it is still awfully inadvisable if you ask me. Most 2nd place contestants will go all in there, so she was probably playing against the odds, and leaving herself awfully exposed, as well as of course not maximizing her potential winnings.

The other thing to keep in mind is that each situation is different. Contestants are different, categories differ. A bet isn't "right" as it is "more right than it is wrong," and the situation can influence that.


I think her wager has to have been based either on her observation of the previous game, or on her just doing something very idiosyncratic; I would think that "facts & figures" is too amorphous a category name for someone to have a good idea of how tough the clue is likely to play for them. I could see someone wagering defensively if the category was, say, "Royal families" and that was a really bad subject area for that contestant. Even then, I agree with you that it's very, very risky to not bet to cover.
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Re: Thursday, July 5, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion (SPOILERS)

Postby John Boy » Fri Jul 06, 2012 12:45 pm

econgator wrote:
hbomb1947 wrote:Maybe it's just me, but I thought the "octant" DD was really tough, even for a bottom-of-the-board clue. I had never heard of the term before. It certainly wasn't something where a few extra seconds was likely to make a differnce.


I'm with ya, hb. I'd probably have had a better chance if they had left that part off. Once I saw it was a measuring device, I was thinking, ummmm ..... sextant, astrolabe, umm ... *beep beep beep*


Sextant = instrument for determining longitude/latitude, from Latin for "sixth part" (of a circle).

So what is the instrument for determining longitude/latitude using the "eighth part" (of a circle), and beginning with "O"? Think "octave, octagon, etc. and the clue gives enough information for a reasonable guess even if you've never heard the word "sextant." IMHO anyway.
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Re: Thursday, July 5, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion (SPOILERS)

Postby CyrusChan » Fri Jul 06, 2012 2:26 pm

I'm one of the 42%!!

and what was up with the wagers?
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Re: Thursday, July 5, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion (SPOILERS)

Postby CyrusChan » Fri Jul 06, 2012 2:28 pm

just another note, a saying I heard growing up:

I'm from NYC so I don't need to drive until I'm thirty-five. (or something in that context)
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Re: Thursday, July 5, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion (SPOILERS)

Postby gloriaclemente » Fri Jul 06, 2012 3:43 pm

Vanya wrote:Aren't they in the green room while they wait, watching old movies? Unless Wednesday's game was taped the day before.


Contestants who have yet to play are in their own special section of the studio audience, above the desk where Robert and Maggie sit, and across the aisle from contestant friends and family. (Usually muttering answers under their breath and "air buzzing" imaginary signalling devices.)
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Re: Thursday, July 5, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion (SPOILERS)

Postby SkeeBallRaif » Fri Jul 06, 2012 4:02 pm

Re Tungsten: Amazingly, I had been looking at a periodic table earlier in the day where you could adjust a bar to show where the various melting points were and which elements stayed solid at the hottest temperatures. No way I would have known this on any other day of my life, as chemistry is a very weak area for me. Sort of how I learned the capital of Armenia minutes before the January online test which asked the same.

Also, the phrase "What is Tungsten, or, Wolfram?", as said by a Jeopardy-watching George Costanza moments before Alex says the same, was a memorable laugh line in the Seinfeld episode "The Abstinence." (This is after George gives up sex and thus, with his mind now free to focus on other pursuits, becomes a temporary super genius.) Was anyone else reminded of that?

See: http://www.seinfeldscripts.com/TheAbstinence.htm (search on the page for "Tungsten")
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Re: Thursday, July 5, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion (SPOILERS)

Postby Volante » Fri Jul 06, 2012 4:05 pm

SkeeBallRaif wrote:Re Tungsten: Amazingly, I had been looking at a periodic table earlier in the day where you could adjust a bar to show where the various melting points were and which elements stayed solid at the hottest temperatures. No way I would have known this on any other day of my life, as chemistry is a very weak area for me. Sort of how I learned the capital of Armenia minutes before the January online test which asked the same.

Also, the phrase "What is Tungsten, or, Wolfram?", as said by a Jeopardy-watching George Costanza moments before Alex says the same, was a memorable laugh line in the Seinfeld episode "The Abstinence." (This is after George gives up sex and thus, with his mind now free to focus on other pursuits, becomes a temporary super genius.) Was anyone else reminded of that?

See: http://www.seinfeldscripts.com/TheAbstinence.htm (search on the page for "Tungsten")

Nope, but it reminded me of a Family Guy back and forth while they're playing Trivial Pursuit...

Peter: All right, Brian, this one's for you."What naturally occurring element has the highest melting point of all metals?"
Brian: Cadmium?
Peter: Sorry, Tungsten! Dumb ass.
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Re: Thursday, July 5, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion (SPOILERS)

Postby TenPoundHammer » Fri Jul 06, 2012 5:11 pm

Volante wrote:Nope, but it reminded me of a Family Guy back and forth while they're playing Trivial Pursuit...

Peter: All right, Brian, this one's for you."What naturally occurring element has the highest melting point of all metals?"
Brian: Cadmium?
Peter: Sorry, Tungsten! Dumb ass.


Was there a joke in that?
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