debramc wrote:So how many seconds do you actually get to do all this analysis for a DD? It seems like maybe 5-10 seconds tops? It's one thing to expect rational wagering on FJ, when you have a few minutes, at least, but I'm a little terrified by having to do all this thinking in a few seconds (and I'm pretty fast at the arithmetic - it's considering all the scenarios that's hard). And I know I've heard lots of contestants comment that they had actually lost track of who had what score until they had that moment to look at the scores, and were often surprised.
At home, you get as much time as you want with the game paused. That's where you do your heavy thinking and practicing. If you ever get to the studio, then that practice hopefully will allow you to make a better than average spot decision. Two points:
When something goes wrong on final approach to a landing, there usually isn't time to figure things out. That's why commercial pilots spend many hours in simulators practicing emergency situations, so if it ever occurs for real, they'll be ready.
I had an adviser who explained physical intuition to me: first, you estimate the solution using physical intuition. Then you run an actual analysis. You then use the degree of agreement between the two to refine your physical intuition.
Of the three main components that make a Jeopardy! winner (knowledge of trivia, buzzer timing, wagering strategy), it is only in wagering that people consistently screw up. Yeah, you don't have forever to calculate it, but if you've got some basics worked out and "in your blood", then you can make pretty good horseback guesses.