If you live somewhere where T-Mobile has a presence, and you watch any TV at all, you're going to know this girl is in their ads.TenPoundHammer wrote:Nice. But I can't say that I've ever seen a T-Mobile ad.
Another nice win by Sara. Keep it up!
Moderators: alietr, trainman, econgator, dhkendall
If you live somewhere where T-Mobile has a presence, and you watch any TV at all, you're going to know this girl is in their ads.TenPoundHammer wrote:Nice. But I can't say that I've ever seen a T-Mobile ad.
Make it (at least) two for "incendiary". Don't remember the wording of the clue, but I believe they would have had to accept it.Bamaman wrote:I said incendiary for the other one.
Have to side with TPH on this one. Although I don't live where T-Mobile has a presence (at least I've never seen it advertised around here), almost all of the TV I watch comes from a place that does. And I did not recognize this girl from their ads. I cannot recall ever seeing a T-Mobile ad.This Is Kirk! wrote:If you live somewhere where T-Mobile has a presence, and you watch any TV at all, you're going to know this girl is in their ads.TenPoundHammer wrote:Nice. But I can't say that I've ever seen a T-Mobile ad.
Don't worry, I see enough to cover both yours and TPHs share.bpmod wrote: I cannot recall ever seeing a T-Mobile ad.
Interesting. I was starting to think maybe they only advertise heavily on the West Coast.Paucle wrote:Don't worry, I see enough to cover both yours and TPHs share.bpmod wrote: I cannot recall ever seeing a T-Mobile ad.
The girl or the bike?TenPoundHammer wrote:Nice. But I can't say that I've ever seen a T-Mobile ad.
She shouldn't bet it all. On a triple stumper with her method she advances, with your method she doesn't. As someone else has pointed out she should have bet anywhere from 0 to 2600, and hope that Dean bets it wrong, which he did. Her zero bet is a solid play. The only way she is moving on is with the other two getting it wrong. If the other two get it wrong, there is a very possible chance the FJ is a triple stumper. Zero bet probably even maximizes her winnings.Bamaman wrote:
On a side note, I didn't like his or Twila's FJ bets. He should have just bet to cover third and she should have bet it all.
Me too, so why don't we both just count it right so I can increase my score for the day?MarkBarrett wrote:For the revolutionary I blurted out Mercenary. Immediate neg or stop tape? Either way I counted it wrong.
There was a bike?Sherm wrote:The girl or the bike?TenPoundHammer wrote:Nice. But I can't say that I've ever seen a T-Mobile ad.
You should have recognized her - she's from Toronto!bpmod wrote:Have to side with TPH on this one. Although I don't live where T-Mobile has a presence (at least I've never seen it advertised around here), almost all of the TV I watch comes from a place that does. And I did not recognize this girl from their ads. I cannot recall ever seeing a T-Mobile ad.This Is Kirk! wrote:If you live somewhere where T-Mobile has a presence, and you watch any TV at all, you're going to know this girl is in their ads.TenPoundHammer wrote:Nice. But I can't say that I've ever seen a T-Mobile ad.
Brian
Yeah. Her and two million others.Spaceman Spiff wrote:You should have recognized her - she's from Toronto!
There is, but the girl was kinda in the way.bpmod wrote:There was a bike?Sherm wrote:The girl or the bike?TenPoundHammer wrote:Nice. But I can't say that I've ever seen a T-Mobile ad.
Brian
If you got an audition invite, however ...bpmod wrote:Yeah. Her and two million others.Spaceman Spiff wrote:You should have recognized her - she's from Toronto!
I never even venture in that direction any more. I used to spend a fair amount of time there, but now it's just a hassle.
Brian
I don't expect I'll be going this year, either. I hope we both do, though.dhkendall wrote:If you got an audition invite, however ...bpmod wrote:Yeah. Her and two million others.Spaceman Spiff wrote:You should have recognized her - she's from Toronto!
I never even venture in that direction any more. I used to spend a fair amount of time there, but now it's just a hassle.
Brian
(I seem to recall we both chose the Big Smoke, although it doesn't look like I'll be going this year, so I hope you at least do!)
Twyla's $0 bet was less than ideal. Dean had absolutely no reason to risk falling below Twyla's $8400 on a miss. (The fact that he did so anyway is not entirely beside the point, though. I'll come to that in a bit.) Twyla should have bet as though Dean would make the shutout bet against her. Here were the pre-FJ scores:Sherm wrote:She shouldn't bet it all. On a triple stumper with her method she advances, with your method she doesn't. As someone else has pointed out she should have bet anywhere from 0 to 2600, and hope that Dean bets it wrong, which he did. Her zero bet is a solid play. The only way she is moving on is with the other two getting it wrong. If the other two get it wrong, there is a very possible chance the FJ is a triple stumper. Zero bet probably even maximizes her winnings.Bamaman wrote:
On a side note, I didn't like his or Twila's FJ bets. He should have just bet to cover third and she should have bet it all.
Opus, you're assuming everyone bets smartly. About half of the people on the show don't, and in betting logic in the real world, that should be taken into account. Twyla's A bet is 2600. There is little doubt about that. If she gets it right, she beats Dean if he gets it wrong (assuming he bets it right), and it beats Sara if she gets it wrong and bets it right (lock out bet).opusthepenguin wrote:Twyla's $0 bet was less than ideal. Dean had absolutely no reason to risk falling below Twyla's $8400 on a miss. (The fact that he did so anyway is not entirely beside the point, though. I'll come to that in a bit.) Twyla should have bet as though Dean would make the shutout bet against her. Here were the pre-FJ scores:Sherm wrote:She shouldn't bet it all. On a triple stumper with her method she advances, with your method she doesn't. As someone else has pointed out she should have bet anywhere from 0 to 2600, and hope that Dean bets it wrong, which he did. Her zero bet is a solid play. The only way she is moving on is with the other two getting it wrong. If the other two get it wrong, there is a very possible chance the FJ is a triple stumper. Zero bet probably even maximizes her winnings.Bamaman wrote:
On a side note, I didn't like his or Twila's FJ bets. He should have just bet to cover third and she should have bet it all.
Sara: $16,800
Dean: $13,900
Twyla: $8,400
Point 1: Sara's most likely bet is the shutout against Dean--$11,001. (And that in fact is what she bet.) Dean can't beat her if she gets FJ right. If she misses, she goes down to $5,799. So Dean needs to stay above that number for any realistic chance of winning. Any bet that takes him below $5,799 is foolish.
Point 2: Dean can safely make the shutout bet of $2,901 against Twyla. A get puts him out of Twyla's reach while a miss still keeps him ahead of her current score at $10,999. Twyla CANNOT win on a $0 bet against a rational wager by Dean. She needs to get up to $11,000 for a win.
Point 3: Twyla can get up to $11,000 for the win by betting $2,600 and getting FJ right. With this bet, she will almost certainly win as long as both her opponents miss. She can win on a TS or a sole get. That's the best offer she's going to get in her third place position.
Subtlety A: If Twyla loses that $2,600, she drops down to $5,800. That won't beat any rational wager by Dean. But it WILL beat a foolish wager such as the one he made. And--here's the fun part--it will also beat Sara BY ONE DOLLAR if Sara makes the shutout bet and misses. For that reason, I would have advised Sara to bet a dollar less than she did. (For similar reasons, I'd have advised Dean to bet $2,900 rather than $2,901.) If she got it right and Dean doubled his score, she would have tied rather than won outright. But if she missed, and Twyla made the ideal bet and also missed, Sara would tie rather than lose.
Subtlety B: What if Sara hates the category and doesn't make the shutout bet? What will she bet instead? Nothing. Zip. Nada. Twyla has exactly half Sara's score. If Sara bets $0, the most Twyla can do is double her score and tie. If Sara bets $0, all she needs is for Dean to miss FJ and she's a returning (possibly co-) champion. That means it is NOT unreasonable for Twyla to go all in, but it would be unreasonable to go ALMOST all in. This is not a situation where she can leave herself a buck or two on a miss. Bet it all or bet $2,600. I think $2,600 is a better bet, but that's a matter of feel rather than math.
CONCLUSION: Here are the Opus Approved bets for these players along with the grades they get for their actual bets. Deviating from these by even a dollar will reduce their chances, if only a little. Deviating by more than a dollar seriously reduces their chances:
Sara: $11,000 or $0 -- Actual bet - $11,001, Grade - A-
Dean: $2,900 -- Actual bet - $12,500, Grade - F
Twyla: $2,600 or $8,400 -- Actual bet - $0, Grade - D
You just blew all credibility right there. There is no such thing as watching Jeopardy! too often.Sherm wrote: and I'm watching this show too often.