Monday, October 29, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

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earendel
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Re: Monday, October 29, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by earendel »

Someone at my church gave me the article from the WSJ. Nicely written.
"Elen sila lumenn omentielvo...A star shines on the hour of our meeting."
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Re: Monday, October 29, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by johnclarklevin »

omgwheelhouse wrote:
johnclarklevin wrote: But assuming 70%, that means that there’s an expected value of $200 for a $1,000 bet, $2,000 for a $10,000 bet, and so on.
I agree with your conclusion that contestants should be more aggressive on daily doubles, but (sorry, I can't help myself) your math seems to be wrong. The EV would be $400.
johnclarklevin wrote: That said, I also suspect intuitively that more players hold off on answering a question that they do know than buzz in for one they don’t know. But my evidence for that is only anecdotal.
Interesting question. I've seen enough bad guesses on the show to lean towards the opposite thought, but I've never been on the big stage myself, and of course, it's impossible to judge from watching. And it depends on what you classify as questions that you know. There's a fine line, but not having quick enough recall to buzz in time, or being pretty sure but not sure enough to buzz... I personally wouldn't count those as holding off on questions that you know.

Sorry you didn't win. You're in good company with a long list of great players who got taken down by FJ after leading their first game.
Thanks, omgwheelhouse. And thanks for the correction, you're right. Not sure how that happened. Will fix that.

And thanks, earendel! Glad you liked it!
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Re: Monday, October 29, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by johnclarklevin »

Alas, I've been very tardy on my promised replies, but here they are :oops: .

My reflections on the game to follow.


Case - Interesting that I seemed to be dragging out category names and picking low value clues. It was not, I must confess, in any way intentional. I was trying to just achieve some kind of rhythm on the buzzer, and keep Keith off it, but I did not succeed.

Yes it is very strange how little one remembers. After taping the episode, I would have been hard pressed to recite a single clue, but on watching it on TV, I can now remember lots of little details of what I was thinking as each clue came up. Strange trick of memory!


lisa0012 - Thanks! The stripes part just went right over my head.


bpmod - I was amazed to see how much discussion the “salvo” clue generated here in the thread. The one I was curious about was the “AP” clue in Two-Letter Responses. I would have thought “IB” would have been an equally acceptable response.


jeff6286 - What was stunning about the FJ wagers? I’d be happy to discuss my reasoning in more detail. Regarding the hat doffing clue, I was trying to buzz in with “cap” as well, so when Anne missed it, I started to think that I had misunderstand the clue. I suspect Keith was thinking something similar. Nice call on the $1600 clue!


MarkBarrett - Thank you! It was frustrating indeed, all the more so because I realized as soon as Keith got the last DD that I would need to win it on the buzzer, and just couldn’t seal the deal. I for one don’t don’t think that “ammo” could be acceptable, for the reason others stated -- that “gunfire” entails discharge of the ammunition, not the ammunition itself.


Bamaman - Thank you!


glennfleishmann - I’ve thanked you on Twitter and Facebook already, Glenn, but I really appreciate the kind words!


ChemTeacher - Thank you kindly! It was nice to get in on the electrons question, but what really killed me was not getting in on the bushido question, since I wrote the manual for a computer game all about bushido!
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Re: Monday, October 29, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by johnclarklevin »

As I reflect on my Jeopardy! experience at a fortnight’s remove from the air date, several thoughts come to mind that some of you might find interesting. Some of this might be old news to those who've been on the show, but I get the sense that enough boardies have not been contestants for this to be worthwhile.


~~

The first is that there’s a remarkable bond that Jeopardy! contestants form through their time on the show. It’s a very strange experience to share, when you think about it.

On the morning of the taping, all twelve contestants filtered down to the hotel lobby to await the shuttle that would take us to the Sony lot. We all carried garment bags for costume changes in the event that we won, so there’s a comradely moment of recognition as we find seats, see each other’s bags and nod. “Jeopardy?” “Jeopardy.”

But through all these warm feelings is the inescapable reality of the situation. We are all there to knock each other out of a single-elimination competition, in the process depriving each other of tens or even hundreds of thousands of dollars of potential winnings.

“It’s like the first day of school,” one contestant said in the lobby that morning, trying to break the ice. “I think it’s more like the Hunger Games,” another quipped. In other words: an every-man-for-himself fight to the death with bows and arrows. As my nervous heart pounded in my chest, the simile struck a little close to home.

I was pleased to find, though, that those comradely feelings won out in the end. In the end, the bond of achieving the lifelong dream of getting on the show is powerful enough to overcome competitiveness when it’s all said and done. Keith was certainly gracious and humble in victory.

~~

The second insight is just how surreal the experience of being on stage is. You might imagine when viewing at home that there’s a lot of Hollywood trickery that goes into the show -- green screens, digital effects, heavy editing. Not so. The set is almost exactly what it looks like on TV, and almost all the effects are accomplished in-camera. Each episode is shot in real time -- 30 minutes, with breaks that match the commercials. So the taping feels startlingly like playing along with the game from home.

As I stated in that Thursday’s WSJ piece, “the gameplay is so fast, the adrenaline so intense that there is no time even to be nervous.” I wasn’t kidding. The game requires such a laser focus that time seems to distort, and the game board becomes, to turn one of Cormac McCarthy’s better phrases, as contestant’s “world entire.” In my recollections, the board seems huge, and no more than fifteen feet away. Some of my fellow contestants recall it seeming quite far away.

~~

Third: I executed the strategy I had set for myself. The long months of practice involved three facets of preparation. The most obvious one is knowledge. I identified my strengths and weaknesses, and used my time efficiently. As it happened, though, not a single one of the 61 questions in the game hinged on something that I had learned from training. So you can imagine how excruciating it was to be watching subsequent shows from the audience -- only to see about seven or eight clues asking for material that I’d studied. That, my friends, is brutal. But, it’s the nature of the game.

The other two facets of preparation are buzzer timing and wagering strategy. The buzzer is an especially key element of gameplay. For the majority of the clues all three of us seemed to be trying to buzz in, and on nearly all of them, at least two of us were. Looking back, I can sincerely say that no further amount of buzzer training could be assured of improving my performance. Indeed, considering what a dominant champion Keith went on to become -- #14 in the all-time standings -- I feel fortunate to have buzzed in for as many questions as I did. I can say that every single time the lights on my podium went on and Alex called my name, I was surprised. As for wagering strategy, I had resolved long in advance to be aggressive -- and was itching for a chance to say on national television “Alex, I’ll make it a True Daily Double.” Unfortunately, I didn’t land on any of the game’s three Daily Doubles, so the point was moot.

I had also endeavored to avoid simple mental mistakes, as my training at home revealed that to be a weakness. Still, I did make a few. I answered “Who is Hugh Hefner?” when I misread a question asking for Playboy. I guessed too rapidly on clues about “Casey at the Bat” and the number of minutes in an NBA game. (In my own defense, if not for missing the “threw out the first pitch” hint in the Abner Doubleday clue, I’m sure I would have gotten it. My guess -- Anderson -- was the commander of Fort Sumter, was also a West Pointer like the clue specified, and did, in a metonymic sense, fire the first shot in defense of the Union.) On the whole, though, I limited such mistakes as well or better than I did in practice.

For these reasons, even though the outcome was not what I had hoped, I can have the peace of mind that I executed to the best of my ability.

~~~

Fourth: Jeopardy! is just about the only competitive endeavor for which people don’t get mulligans. If you play football, you can lose a game, learn from it, and move on to win the next one. If you blunder in chess, you can study the game, raise your ELO, and start winning tournaments. People get do-overs in figure skating, darts, swimming, romance, and World of Warcraft. But not Jeopardy! Months of buildup and training all come down to 30 minutes, and then it’s all over. For someone like me, who makes a big point of self-study, and learning from mistakes, that’s the most frustrating aspect of the show.

~~~

Finally, I was stunned to see the reaction from total strangers via social media. On Twitter, response was alarmingly negative.

Some users griped good-naturedly about my voice or playing style (“John-Clark is going HAM on the buzzer on Jeopardy tonight #HAM #jeopardy”). Several derisively tweeted how obvious it was that I was wearing a toupee. Others heaped on more personal abuse:

“John-Clark on Jeopardy tonight seems like a d-bag #realtalk #sandy”
“So glad John-Clark didn’t win Jeopardy. That guy was the worst.”
“JOHN-CLARK LOL IM CRYING SHUT THE [expletive] UP PLEASE #jeopardy”
“I want to rig John-Clark’s button so it doesn’t register because I hate that creep.”
“SHUT UP JOHN-CLARK I HATE YOU”

A few impugned my intelligence, morals, or hand-eye coordination, while another publicly expressed confidence that I was innocent in the ways of women.

A smaller number were openly distasteful, up to and including one user wishing aloud for my violent death (“I hope John Clark dies in Hurricane Sandy”).

Naturally, it was tough to read this stuff, even coming from strangers. But I’m not the sort of person to just slink away. So I combed Twitter for my detractors, and replied individually to their tweets.

One young woman had tweeted “John-Clark and I will get married one day” before slamming me in an extended soliloquy of hatred. So I replied: “Not after all the tweets that came after this, we won’t ;-)” She was thoroughly embarrassed, and -- much to her credit -- she publicly apologized on her feed.

In similar fashion, I confronted them one by one, always attempting to do so with a cool head and a touch of humor. Many seemed genuinely chastened by the realization that their target had overheard them -- a sort of high-tech insult-a-guy-who’s-right-behind-you moment. More than half of them replied, usually with graciousness and sincerity. So although it was scary to wade into the Twitter lion’s den, I’m glad I did.
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Re: Monday, October 29, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by jeff6286 »

johnclarklevin wrote: jeff6286 - What was stunning about the FJ wagers? I’d be happy to discuss my reasoning in more detail.
Keith Whitener: $10,800+$10,799=$21,599
John-Clark Levin: $13,800-$13,698=$102
Anne Fierro: $6,600-$6,599=$1

It was just surprising to see all 3 players bet nearly all of their money, meaning that each of you left yourself virtually no chance to win if you got FJ wrong. As it turned out, you would have been the winner with $102 if everyone had missed, but that doesn't happen too often.

In Keith's position, he should know that you are almost certainly going to bet at least $7,801, meaning if you are wrong you will probably have $5,999 at most. He would have maximized his chances of winning by betting between $2,400 and $4,800, which would have most likely guaranteed him victory on a triple stumper, and assured him of being ahead of Anne if both were correct on FJ. Granted, he wouldn't have won as much if he had made that wager, and he had already won over $65,000 in his first 3 victories.

Maybe he felt that Mammals was a strong category for him, so he felt he stood a pretty good chance of getting it right. I have no issues with a player feeling confident in their knowledge and betting strongly because of it, but in this case there seems to be a whole lot more to lose than there is to gain by betting so much. Think about it, if Keith had bet $4,800 instead of $10,799, he would have won $5,999 less on this day, so lets round up and say that his bold wager earned him an extra $6,000.

Now lets see what would have happened if he had been wrong. With his $10,799 wager, he loses to your $102 and goes home with $2,000 for second. If he makes the $4,800 wager, he is the winner with $6,000 and here is the most important part, he gets to come back tomorrow. As it happens, Keith happened to win 3 more games and nearly another $60,000 before he was defeated, plus he guaranteed himself a berth in the Tournament of Champions. So by betting nearly all of his money in this game, he earned himself an extra $6,000, but risked costing himself almost $60,000, plus whatever he might win in the TOC. Certainly there was no guarantee of future victories, but I always feel that a player should leave themselves as many possible outcomes that result in victory, with the biggest reason being that the potential winnings that can be earned in future games is essentially an infinite number.

Sorry that this has gotten so long, but I don't think your wager was terrible, as if Keith had made what I thought was the smart play, your wager would have essentially been irrelevant. If I was in your spot, with a 3 time champion next to me in Keith's spot, I would probably assume that he would bet to win if I was wrong, so I too might be tempted to bet almost everything, particularly if I really liked the category. I would be interested in hearing what your reasoning was.

Also, I try never to say that someone made a stupid or terrible wager, as every player certainly has the right to bet however they want with the Jeopardy dollars that they have earned. I said stunning because I really was a bit stunned to see all 3 players nearly bet it all. I do at times point out what I feel are errors in strategy, but I try to at least be nice about it, unlike some of those that you mention on Twitter. I love that you responded to each and every one of them. Thanks for responding to us here, and thanks for all the insights and behind the scenes tidbits.
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ChemTeacher
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Re: Monday, October 29, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by ChemTeacher »

johnclarklevin wrote:I had also endeavored to avoid simple mental mistakes, as my training at home revealed that to be a weakness. Still, I did make a few. I answered “Who is Hugh Hefner?” when I misread a question asking for Playboy. I guessed too rapidly on clues about “Casey at the Bat” and the number of minutes in an NBA game. (In my own defense, if not for missing the “threw out the first pitch” hint in the Abner Doubleday clue, I’m sure I would have gotten it. My guess -- Anderson -- was the commander of Fort Sumter, was also a West Pointer like the clue specified, and did, in a metonymic sense, fire the first shot in defense of the Union.) On the whole, though, I limited such mistakes as well or better than I did in practice.
When I was playing the game and getting frustrated that someone else kept beating me to the buzzer, I found myself trying to "get faster" at reading the clues. This speed-reading technique may cause a contestant to miss important details in the clue, because the goal is to be first, no matter what it takes.
So then what tends to happen when you are trying to "out-buzz" everybody is the following:
1) You read the clue at lightning speed, ignoring Alex's voice
2) You pick an answer in your head quickly, and you feel confident that it is the correct response
3) You focus intensely on the last word of the clue
4) You press your button at the exact moment that Alex says that word (ignoring the "go" lights at this point)
5) If you get lucky and Alex calls your name, you say the response that you have been keeping inside your head (even if it turns out to be an incorrect and silly response), because you have stopped thinking about the clue a long time ago. There is no time for you to reconsider it or second guess yourself!

So when you watch yourself on TV later, you might laugh at your incorrect responses while you are standing in your living room. You might even say, "What was I thinking?" Of course, that's the point. You weren't thinking about "sedan versus coupe" or "Phelps versus Bolt." You were just trying to be first on the buzzer! Of course there are going to be some forehead-slapping moments when you watch it later.
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Re: Monday, October 29, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by johnclarklevin »

jeff6286 wrote:
johnclarklevin wrote: jeff6286 - What was stunning about the FJ wagers? I’d be happy to discuss my reasoning in more detail.
Keith Whitener: $10,800+$10,799=$21,599
John-Clark Levin: $13,800-$13,698=$102
Anne Fierro: $6,600-$6,599=$1

It was just surprising to see all 3 players bet nearly all of their money, meaning that each of you left yourself virtually no chance to win if you got FJ wrong. As it turned out, you would have been the winner with $102 if everyone had missed, but that doesn't happen too often.

In Keith's position, he should know that you are almost certainly going to bet at least $7,801, meaning if you are wrong you will probably have $5,999 at most. He would have maximized his chances of winning by betting between $2,400 and $4,800, which would have most likely guaranteed him victory on a triple stumper, and assured him of being ahead of Anne if both were correct on FJ. Granted, he wouldn't have won as much if he had made that wager, and he had already won over $65,000 in his first 3 victories.

Maybe he felt that Mammals was a strong category for him, so he felt he stood a pretty good chance of getting it right. I have no issues with a player feeling confident in their knowledge and betting strongly because of it, but in this case there seems to be a whole lot more to lose than there is to gain by betting so much. Think about it, if Keith had bet $4,800 instead of $10,799, he would have won $5,999 less on this day, so lets round up and say that his bold wager earned him an extra $6,000.

Now lets see what would have happened if he had been wrong. With his $10,799 wager, he loses to your $102 and goes home with $2,000 for second. If he makes the $4,800 wager, he is the winner with $6,000 and here is the most important part, he gets to come back tomorrow. As it happens, Keith happened to win 3 more games and nearly another $60,000 before he was defeated, plus he guaranteed himself a berth in the Tournament of Champions. So by betting nearly all of his money in this game, he earned himself an extra $6,000, but risked costing himself almost $60,000, plus whatever he might win in the TOC. Certainly there was no guarantee of future victories, but I always feel that a player should leave themselves as many possible outcomes that result in victory, with the biggest reason being that the potential winnings that can be earned in future games is essentially an infinite number.

Sorry that this has gotten so long, but I don't think your wager was terrible, as if Keith had made what I thought was the smart play, your wager would have essentially been irrelevant. If I was in your spot, with a 3 time champion next to me in Keith's spot, I would probably assume that he would bet to win if I was wrong, so I too might be tempted to bet almost everything, particularly if I really liked the category. I would be interested in hearing what your reasoning was.

Also, I try never to say that someone made a stupid or terrible wager, as every player certainly has the right to bet however they want with the Jeopardy dollars that they have earned. I said stunning because I really was a bit stunned to see all 3 players nearly bet it all. I do at times point out what I feel are errors in strategy, but I try to at least be nice about it, unlike some of those that you mention on Twitter. I love that you responded to each and every one of them. Thanks for responding to us here, and thanks for all the insights and behind the scenes tidbits.
My reasoning was essentially as you surmised. I knew that Keith would very likely bet almost everything, probably judging it more likely that I would get it wrong and he would get it right, than that we would both get it wrong. I also knew that Keith was more likely to get it right than to get it wrong. Therefore, I would need to bet enough to cover an all-in wager from him, and get it right myself.

If I got it right, I reasoned, then I might as well bet most of the difference between the minimum covering wager, and my total score. Anne had a high enough score that even the minimum covering wager would take me below her if I got it wrong and she bet nothing, so there was little incentive to be cautious. Thus, I felt I had a better shot to win an extra ~$3,000 on any single FJ! clue than by winning another whole Jeopardy! game. Missing the FJ! rendered that moot, of course.

And thank you for the kind words! I'm glad you enjoyed reading.


ChemTeacher - That's about the size of it :o .
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Re: Monday, October 29, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by PaulNelson2012 »

johnclarklevin wrote: “I think it’s more like the Hunger Games,” another quipped.
I didn't know anyone was listening. Aww.
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Re: Monday, October 29, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by johnclarklevin »

Yes, indeed. Congratulations on your wins, Paul!
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