TOC 2013 Pre-Taping Rankings through 1/11/13

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MarkBarrett
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TOC 2013 Pre-Taping Rankings through 1/11/13

Post by MarkBarrett »

Before the TOC airs I like to get my rankings and comments on the record. A grid with the basic stats for the players is here: https://docs.google.com/file/d/0BzJUVd1 ... V5N1U/edit

I like to group the players into Gold, Silver and Bronze. Like the Olympics the difference between one or another can be very minimal, so while Gold may be desirable there is no shame in Bronze. With 15 players it's easy to put 5 in each and not as interesting as 15 Gold or 5 Gold and 10 Silver.

These are my opinions based not only on stats, but in watching all the games. Wins then money get players into the field. That doesn't mean I have to follow that system for my rankings.

In no particular order:

Gold: Jason Shore, Keith Whitener, Patrick Morrison*, Jason Keller, Stephanie Jass

Silver: Dave Leach, David Gard, Ashok Poozhikunnel, Dan McShane, David Menchaca

Bronze: Monica Thieu, Joel Pool, Patrick Quinn, Paul Nelson, Colby Burnett

*Patrick may or may not make the field. As of today he is in although it can change on Monday.

My comments are to make sure the participants can have a good laugh and to have a little fun:

Jason Shore: Forget the 1/5 on FJs. He gets to enough material to remain competitive and even in his loss he was in position to win.

Keith Whitener: There may be holes in his knowledge base and he's not Mr. Entertainment, but it took a 5-time champion to knock him off or his streak could have gone double digits.

Patrick Morrison: If he gets in the other players better not dismiss him because of only three wins and 15th qualifier. His defeat was against another TOCer in David Gard. Patrick is a tough competitor who has had a lot of time to get ready.

Jason Keller: He has the money and wins to be top dog entering the tourney. Jason can be beat on the buzzer, so he may need some tough clues to hang in there. I can see him having one good game and one bad game or two of each.

Stephanie Jass: A lock for the Gold group as she has never trailed entering FJ and her loss wasn't too far away from a lock for her. While she doesn't lead in money or wins, her Coryat average rules the field easily.

Dave Leach: He is a Jekyll and Hyde player and I have no idea which one will show up for the quarterfinals. Nothing he does will surprise me. Dave is another one who was defeated by a future TOCer in Dan McShane.

David Gard: He has also never trailed entering FJ. David may not be the best on the buzer or knowledge across the board, but I like the way he fights through each game.

Ashok Poozhikunnel: I'd like to see him matched with one of the teachers or Monica to give him a fighting chance. My guess is Ashok will be more vulnerable than most to a tough draw with double Gold players. He's young, so some material will be over his head.

Dan McShane: He is the third in the field who has never been behind entering FJ. He outplayed his opponents on the buzzer in his defeat and it was the crucial DDs and FJ that sent him packing. For all of you who put him in Gold I understand.

David Menchaca: David came across to me as one of those guys who won a game and the rest was gravy. I never sensed a killer game instinct. Jeopardy! is just a game and have fun. David gets that. There is also big money on the line with 14 others trying to take it. Make sure they know you are there trying to do the same.

Monica Thieu: As I usually do with the college champ she is in Bronze. They are always welcome to prove me wrong as has happened often. Monica has never led entering FJ and her Coryat average is in four digits.

Joel Pool: He won 6 games and over $100,000. That will be enough for some to rank him much higher. Go ahead; I won't. He'll need fortunate circumstances to advance. Joel is capable of using good game strategy to over deficits with timing and knowledge across the board.

Patrick Quinn: It wasn't easy the way Patrick made his way through the Teachers tourney and this tournament will be even more challenging. Until a winner from the teacher tourney proves me wrong I'm putting them in Bronze after seeing what happened to Charles Temple last go around.

Paul Nelson: At 0/6 on the FJ clues is he due to hit one? I suspect he'll need it based on his low Coryat avg. Whoever draws Paul in the QF game should make the final 9.

Colby Burnett: The same teacher knocks from above apply here. Colby seemed like he would have been fine with regular material and of the five in Bronze I would think he is the most likely to prove me the most wrong. Like someone from Missouri would say, you have to show me.

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Re: TOC 2013 Pre-Taping Rankings through 1/11/13

Post by MarkBarrett »

One other thing I wanted to do was make my version of the draw for one scenario of how the tournament could play out.

QF1
Jason Keller (Semis)
Colby Burnett
Paul Nelson (Semis)

QF2
Stephanie Jass (Semis)
Patrick Quinn
Dan McShane (Semis)

QF3
Jason Shore
Joel Pool
David Menchaca (Semis)

QF4
Monica Thieu
David Gard (Semis)
Ashok Poozhikunnel

QF5
Keith Whitener (Semis)
Patrick Morrison (Semis)
Dave Leach (Semis)

Semifinal1
Keith Whitener
Jason Keller
David Menchaca (Finals)

Semifinal2
Patrick Morrison
Stephanie Jass (Finals)
David Gard

Semifinal3
Dave Leach
Dan McShane
Paul Nelson (Finals)

Finals - Tuxes and Tiaras
David Menchaca
Stephanie Jass
Paul Nelson

I wanted to put a Gold, Silver and Bronze in the finals. One prediction I'll make for the QFs games is Keith Whitener plays in #4 or #5. I won't predict a David, David, Dave final or a Jason, Jason, Joel or a Patrick, Patrick, Paul one.

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Re: TOC 2013 Pre-Taping Rankings through 1/11/13

Post by Austin Powers »

I'd be unhappy if the current champ, who just seems very very average, knocks Morrison out with about half of his winnings. I pegged Morrison as a dark horse awhile back, too, so I am glad to see you agree.

Though there's a part of me rooting for someone to make the TOC with something like $24,000 in winnings. That's the 15-15 MEAC team catching fire to wins its conference tourney and getting the 16th seed in March Madness right there.

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Re: TOC 2013 Pre-Taping Rankings through 1/11/13

Post by Austin Powers »

One other note: even though the players seem very "tiered" in my mind, with Keller, Leach and Jass at the top, I have no doubt that we'll see a "random" semifinal pairing featuring two of those three against each other - probably Keller vs Leach, in a rematch.

And that is BORING. Truly seed it and hope the three favorites make the final. Then let the fireworks erupt.

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Re: TOC 2013 Pre-Taping Rankings through 1/11/13

Post by StevenH »

My rankings:

Gold: Dave Leach, Keith Whitener, Patrick Morrison, Jason Keller, Dan McShane

Silver: Jason Shore, David Gard, Ashok Poozhikunnel, Stephanie Jass, David Menchaca

Bronze: Monica Thieu, Joel Pool, Patrick Quinn, Paul Nelson, Colby Burnett


Some thoughts on the contestants:

Jason Keller: I feel confident that he is tops in terms of knowledge in this field, and that he will make the transition well to ToC clues. His weaknesses were the buzzer and general strategy (small wagers on DDs early in games and not hunting DDs). Rumor has it that some of his friends on this board have talked to him about strategy, so we'll see if there is a change in his game.

Dave Leach: As Mark pointed out he had some games that were close calls, but I feel like he faced some quality competition. I don't know how well he'll do on ToC clues but he did have impressive gets, so he gets the benefit of the doubt for now.

Keith Whitener: He never knocked your socks off but he always found ways to stay in the lead. Not only was he defeated by a 5xer, but he also had to defeat someone in his first game who I was fully expecting to see in the ToC. He should be considered dangerous.

Patrick Morrison: He may be the second best in this field in terms of knowledge, but I am thinking that he won't make the final cut to be in the field.

Dan McShane: He outplayed his opponents but the one thing that scares me is his high rate of negging: He had 1 game of 6 negs, 2 games of 5 negs, and 2 games of 3 negs. He also was defeated in his last game from first place on a gettable FJ, so he may have some things he'll need to work on if he wants to win. There is also a chance he could still be bumped from the field.

Stephanie Jass: She is already one of my favorite contestants of all time, but I felt like she benefited from buzzer speed and some not some not so good opponents. She also missed some FJs that she shouldn't have. I am thinking that she is comparable to somebody like Jason Richards, Paul Glaser, or Mehrun Etebari. But the good news for her (or bad news if past trends hold true) is that she may move up to gold by the time the field is finalized.

Jason Shore: At first I was really impressed with him but then he started leaving some money on the board that he shouldn't have. He is a fierce competitor but he is another one who I think is in the Richards/Glaser/Etebari mold.

Ashok Poozhikunnel: He was solid but not spectacular in his run. I do think that he could do well on ToC clues, though. I'd watch out for him.

David Gard and David Menchaca: I don't have any thoughts on them other than they seemed to be high bronze or silver level ToCers in their runs. I'd certainly watch out for them but I don't expect to see either of them in the finals.

Joel Pool: Usually 5/7 on FJ is a good sign, but in Joel's case I think that it was an extremely rare case of a contestant getting a string of average difficulty FJ clues that happened to be things they knew or could figure out in 30 seconds. He was clearly outplayed in several of his games, so I don't see him being able to make it past the semifinals.

Paul Nelson: I would love to pick him as a dark horse since he was always competitive in the J! and DJ! rounds, but 0/6 on average difficulty FJs is not a good sign.

Colby Burnett: I toyed with putting him in silver and probably would have if it wasn't for Charles Temple's performance in the last ToC, but I couldn't decide which silver grouper to bring down. It's also hard to forget the "treason" FJ miss. For now the regular show players get the advantage.

Patrick Quinn: He didn't appear to be the best player in his Teachers Tournament and won by getting FJ when he needed to, but in the past the college champions who seemed the least impressive in their college tournaments have been the ones who performed best in the ToC. I wouldn't be surprised to see that hold true for the Teachers Tournament, but I am not betting on it here.

Monica Thieu: Basically the same thoughts as Patrick Quinn.


Best of luck to all the contestants! I can't wait to watch it!

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Re: TOC 2013 Pre-Taping Rankings through 1/11/13

Post by StevenH »

Austin Powers wrote:I'd be unhappy if the current champ, who just seems very very average, knocks Morrison out with about half of his winnings. I pegged Morrison as a dark horse awhile back, too, so I am glad to see you agree.
Yeah, I agree. I also would have had Francis Lansangan and Matt Samberg, the 2 most recent ones to be bumped, in high silver. But that's how it goes.
Austin Powers wrote:One other note: even though the players seem very "tiered" in my mind, with Keller, Leach and Jass at the top, I have no doubt that we'll see a "random" semifinal pairing featuring two of those three against each other - probably Keller vs Leach, in a rematch.
I highly doubt that Leach and Keller will play each other unless it's in the finals.

Of course, there is the issue of several contestants having the same first name. Also, Dan McShane beat Dave Leach, and David Gard beat Patrick Morrison. And there are two Teachers Tournament winners in the field. Maybe those things would result in a rematch in the semifinals.

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Re: TOC 2013 Pre-Taping Rankings through 1/11/13

Post by Austin Powers »

StevenH wrote:I highly doubt that Leach and Keller will play each other unless it's in the finals.
You say that, but the semifinal between Pahk, Runsvold, and Craig could have very easily been the final - in another universe. If I had to rank people from the last TOC, I would have had those three in my top four for sure.

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Re: TOC 2013 Pre-Taping Rankings through 1/11/13

Post by StevenH »

Austin Powers wrote:
StevenH wrote:I highly doubt that Leach and Keller will play each other unless it's in the finals.
You say that, but the semifinal between Pahk, Runsvold, and Craig could have very easily been the final - in another universe. If I had to rank people from the last TOC, I would have had those three in my top four for sure.
To be clear: I am making this prediction because they already played each other in regular play, not because they're both good. I certainly agree with you that we could see the 2 or 3 best players matched up in the semis.

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Re: TOC 2013 Pre-Taping Rankings through 1/11/13

Post by seaborgium »

Wow, that's an unprecedented amount of ToCers who have already previously met in competition. I remembered Keith/Paul and Jason/Dave, but I forgot about Dave/Dan and Patrick/David.

There have been some tough hang-ons lately for the first qualifier after a ToC: after 2009's it was Kevin Joyce, who (in airdates) lasted until two days after the '10 ToC taped; Buddy Wright sandwiched that ToC with wins and ended up being the #15 player; and now we see Francis bumped from the field a week before the taping.


People who wouldn't be on the list but for a bad FJ wager from an opponent:

Jason Keller game 2: two-thirds lead, triple stumper, but second place wagered about the max to keep third place locked out, which was mere hundreds of dollars more than the "win on a double stumper" wager.

Dan McShane game 2: another "keep third locked out" wager from second place, this time $4,000 bigger than the "win on a double stumper" wager. Only third place got FJ right. (Dan would lose to another overwagerer who made it pay by being the only one to get FJ right.)

Of course most recently, Ashok Poozhikunnel game 4, in which a close game, an "all-in minus $1" bet from third place, and a triple stumper FJ led to Ashok's winning the essential fourth game with $3,400.

Twice Paul Nelson was saved by his own strategic "bad" wagers, not covering third place from second. He loses game 1 if third place bets over $4,000, or game 4 if third place bets a couple hundred less.

One more "coulda/shoulda lost": David Gard game 3, final category in DJ, David responds "tortoises" to an $800 clue. Alex hesitates. David corrects himself to "turtles" and is ruled correct. He leads by $1,200 at the end of the round, and he and second place get FJ right.


This is not to say that I expect these people to lose, I just like to imagine ways that exactly one difference changes things.

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Re: TOC 2013 Pre-Taping Rankings through 1/11/13

Post by jpahk »

good luck to everybody in the ToC!

looks like i'm not alone in thinking that jason k, stephanie, and patrick m are the class of the field (if indeed pat squeaks in). the fact that everybody else seems to be jumping on the morrison bandwagon makes me feel like he doesn't really count as a dark horse pick, so... i guess i don't have a dark horse pick. keith is obviously excellent and i don't think he'd be at all out of place in the final. lastly, i think colby looks pretty strong here and i suspect he will at least advance to the SFs.

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Re: TOC 2013 Pre-Taping Rankings through 1/11/13

Post by seaborgium »

Every time there's been more than two tournament winners in the ToC (and it was guaranteed from 1989 to 1996, with Seniors, Teen, and College champs every year), at least one of them has made the semis. (Besides the years mentioned above, there was 1998 with Craig Barker, Josh Den Hartog, and Sahir Islam; 2000 with Melissa Sexstone, Chacko George, Carolyn Cracraft, and Janet Wong; and 2010 with Joey Beachum, Patrick Tucker, and Nick Yozamp.) Most ToC fields with two tournament winners have seen at least one make the semis; Kermin Fleming and Nico Martinez in 2006 are the only pair who both got eliminated in the QFs. That said, if exactly one of these three makes the semis, I'd have to guess it'll be Colby.

I found Tom Kunzen's elimination shocking in 2011, and Christopher Short's to some extent as well. Every 5+ winner made the semis in my tournament, but I'd call mrbungle's early knockout a shocker as well. If I were to predict a shocker elimination this time around, it'd be Keith. I can't say for certain why I feel this way.

As for lower ranked successes, I did well in 2011 to predict good things for Buddy. In an effort to do similarly, and to eat crow for my being skeptical of him after his first game, I'll say Jason Shore has good potential. He reminds me of Aaron Schroeder a bit.

Stephanie's my #1 pick. All locks and crushes for eight games is really good, and her conservative DD wagering means all of them were earned dollar for dollar.

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Re: TOC 2013 Pre-Taping Rankings through 1/11/13

Post by StevenH »

Right now I'll predict that Colby Burnett makes the semifinals, but there is a chance that I will change my mind when we see what the quarterfinal match ups actually are.

If I were to pick a dark horse to make the finals or just surprise everyone and play better than expected, it would be either David Gard or Joel Pool.

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Re: TOC 2013 Pre-Taping Rankings through 1/11/13

Post by Austin Powers »

Technically, Colby or Ashok would be more of a dark horse pick.

(ducks)

More seriously, both would be in the top half of players in my mind, for sure. Colby, in particular, forced me to stop making fun of the Teacher's Tournament. Ashok seems very strong in history and other TOC-type categories.

While I could see Whitener getting upset, I think he should win his first game. I feel Paul Nelson won't make the semis, but that won't be an upset.

The college winner Monica is just so young that I don't know if she can make up for that by dominating some of the more academic type stuff on the board.

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Re: TOC 2013 Pre-Taping Rankings through 1/11/13

Post by jpahk »

my concern about monica is not that that she's the college champ or she's young; it's that she didn't particularly distinguish herself relative to the other college players. i know she's a boardie (and i know even the non-boardie ToCers read these predictions, if only for S&G), and i'm not trying to be mean. but in her four games she was 2nd, 3rd, 2nd, and 2nd going into FJ. she did well on FJs, to be sure, but this is a player who averaged 14 gets per 60 clues. erin mcclean, by contrast, averaged over 20 in her college tournament, and it was not a shock that she advanced to the ToC semis. now if sarah bart, or especially matt olson, had made the field, it'd be a different story. but i think it'd be a significant upset if monica made any noise in the ToC. (i have similar reservations about patrick quinn.)

of course, you never know what's actually going to happen until it happens. i can't wait to watch the tournament!

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Re: TOC 2013 Pre-Taping Rankings through 1/11/13

Post by cheezguyty »

Here are my rankings, based on how well I think everyone will do in the tournament:

Gold: Dave, Jason S., Stephanie
Silver: Ashok, Colby, David G., David M., Jason K., Joel
Bronze: Dan, Keith, Monica, Patrick M., Patrick Q., Paul

Best of luck to everyone! :)

ETA: Congrats JBoard on 1,000 threads! :D
Last edited by cheezguyty on Tue Mar 19, 2013 1:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: TOC 2013 Pre-Taping Rankings through 1/11/13

Post by StevenH »

cheezguyty wrote:Here are my rankings, based on how well I think everyone will do in the tournament:

Gold: Dave, Jason S., Stephanie
Silver: Ashok, Colby, David G., David M., Jason K., Joel
Bronze: Dan, Keith, Monica, Patrick M., Patrick Q., Paul

Best of luck to everyone! :)
In the past your stats have been pretty good at predicting these things. Did you use the same method as you have in the past for these picks?

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Re: TOC 2013 Pre-Taping Rankings through 1/11/13

Post by bpmod »

StevenH wrote:
cheezguyty wrote:Here are my rankings, based on how well I think everyone will do in the tournament:

Gold: Dave, Jason S., Stephanie
Silver: Ashok, Colby, David G., David M., Jason K., Joel
Bronze: Dan, Keith, Monica, Patrick M., Patrick Q., Paul

Best of luck to everyone! :)
In the past your stats have been pretty good at predicting these things. Did you use the same method as you have in the past for these picks?
Hmmmmmm.......

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Re: TOC 2013 Pre-Taping Rankings through 1/11/13

Post by PatMorrison »

MarkBarrett wrote: Patrick Morrison: If he gets in the other players better not dismiss him because of only three wins and 15th qualifier. His defeat was against another TOCer in David Gard. Patrick is a tough competitor who has had a lot of time to get ready.
Not to go all hip-hop, but "Real recognize real."

I look forward to heading up the 4th tier, the Tin Division, as the darkest of horses.

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Re: TOC 2013 Pre-Taping Rankings through 1/11/13

Post by bpmod »

PatMorrison wrote:
MarkBarrett wrote: Patrick Morrison: If he gets in the other players better not dismiss him because of only three wins and 15th qualifier. His defeat was against another TOCer in David Gard. Patrick is a tough competitor who has had a lot of time to get ready.
I look forward to heading up the 4th tier, the Tin Division, as the darkest of horses.
Of course, somebody higher up the ladder could eat the tainted fish...

by accident...

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Re: TOC 2013 Pre-Taping Rankings through 1/11/13

Post by CoachP »

So, I'm fairly new to this board-is there any sort of Pick the Winner contest?

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