SouperAvram wrote: ↑
Fri Jan 12, 2018 1:15 pm
Woppy T wrote: ↑
Sat Dec 28, 2013 12:02 am
Second game in a row with ridiculous SAS on the last clue of the game. You have nothing to lose, make a guess!!!!
I actually had $1000 to lose. I had absolutely no idea what the correct response was, but had a lock on second place with the $2000 consolation prize. Had I guessed (and I had no chance to guess correctly), Kathy would have had more than half my score going into Final, and would have had a chance to finish in 2nd place, leaving me with a $1000 consolation prize.
With all due respect, seaborgium is right here. I understand that in the heat of the moment, you might not have realized the situation. But it was the wrong play, and I'm surprised you're trying to justify it 4+ years later.
Assuming you got it wrong, Kathy, who had had only answered 6 clues correctly all game, and 0 in the Shakespeare category, would have had to beat Jerry on the buzzer if he knew it AND get the correct answer merely to be on the wrong side of a crush situation against you going into Final Jeopardy.
Let's say the chances that Kathy gets the $2000 clue on a rebound are 10%. We know that the percentage of times a crushed (less than 2/3rds of the next player's score) opponent overcomes that deficit is 15% of the time. Ergo, we're talking about a situation that happens 1.5% of the time.
In other words, the expected value of not buzzing in is ($2000-$1000)*0.015= $15. An extra fifteen bucks.
Now, let's look at what would have happened if you had buzzed in and got it right. I agree with seaborgium; I don't know how you can assign a zero percent chance to getting it correct.
EVEN assuming you know absolutely nothing about Shakespeare and a single work he wrote, which I very much doubt considering you got the $400 clue for Hamlet correct, how difficult would it be name a random male English monarch from what you perceive to be the general time period of Edward IV? (And certainly, Richard III's fame far exceeds the Shakespeare play of the same name)
At the very, very least, you have a 5% chance doing that, no? Well, that's a 5% chance to get into a crush situation.
Since you would have likely bet it all then, you would have won $27,200 0.75% of the time, and your EV would be ($27,200-$2,000)*0.0075 = $189.00
An extra $189. So, even assuming that Kathy had two times as much chance of getting the clue as you did (very unlikely), the choice to guess would still have been over 10 times better.