Tuesday, March 4, 2014 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

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Re: Tuesday, March 4, 2014 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by opusthepenguin » Wed Mar 05, 2014 1:50 am

Golf wrote:OK, FJ wagering rules to live by.

Make a wager that 1, you can live the rest of your life with and 2, gives you the best chance to win. If fate is smiling, the two are compatible.
If there's a wager that will end up, however improbably, winning me the game, that's the wager that will best meet condition 1 for me, regardless of whether it meets condition 2. If the wager was objectively stupid, I'll happily laugh about that and maybe shudder a bit at the near miss and be glad I won. However, there is no way to know which wager will work best with the unrevealed clue and my own and my opponents' knowledge thereof. Given that, the wager that meets condition 2 ipso facto meets condition 1 for me.

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Re: Tuesday, March 4, 2014 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by opusthepenguin » Wed Mar 05, 2014 1:55 am

Golf wrote:
opusthepenguin wrote:So I cheer for rational wagerers and am happy when they win. I am unhappy when someone wins in spite of a bad wager and downright cranky when someone wins because of a bad wager.
Me too.
I thought you were unhappy with Pam's wager and a bit miffed that it garnered her the win. Have I misunderstood, or do you believe her wager was irrational?

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Re: Tuesday, March 4, 2014 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by Turd Ferguson » Wed Mar 05, 2014 2:17 am

Golf wrote:But if you say simply eliminate emotion, again I've got to bring up the classic WWTBAM million dollar question with the 50/50 remaining. If you walk you average $500k. But if you blindly guess you average $516k. Therefore you should always guess because you win more money that way. But it doesn't quite work that way does it?

So could you live with throwing away $468k on nothing more than a wild guess? Doubtful. Just like I couldn't live myself losing the lead in Jeopardy when I answered FJ correctly.
I would consider that to be a false equivelance, not a "just like" scenario, because the "value" of the first $500K one theoretically wins is much different than the value of a subsequent $500K. For most people, winning $500K would substantially change one's life... winning a second $500K would not have nearly the same effect, so the cost of "losing" the first $500K would be much greater than the gain of winning a second $500K.

If I had a 51/49 chance of winning $100 vs winning $1.60 or walking away with $50 I'd take the chance. No way I'd even consider the same for $1M vs. $16K and $500K, though.

(This is basically a Deal or No Deal scenario, and I'd imagine that there's probably data out there on people taking or rejecting banker's offers. I'd guess they'd be a lot more likely to take high offers than low offers, for just this reason).

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Re: Tuesday, March 4, 2014 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by Mathew5000 » Wed Mar 05, 2014 2:33 am

teapot37 wrote:
TenPoundHammer wrote:Have they ever had to BMS a response twice before?
At least once, in this game.
I recall Ken Jennings being given two BMS's.
Edited to add: it was in Nancy Zerg's first game, the first clue in the Double Jeopardy round, Slang for $400.
teapot37 wrote:When RyanFritz hit the first DD, I was all, "Is he gonna go palindromic?" And then he did, and I was happy.
Did he choose to wager palindromically because of the palindrome category in the Jeopardy round? Or was that just coincidence?

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Re: Tuesday, March 4, 2014 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by TenPoundHammer » Wed Mar 05, 2014 2:49 am

Mathew5000 wrote:
teapot37 wrote:
TenPoundHammer wrote:Have they ever had to BMS a response twice before?
At least once, in this game.
I recall Ken Jennings being given two BMS's.
Edited to add: it was in Nancy Zerg's first game, the first clue in the Double Jeopardy round, Slang for $400.
I remember thinking that was a very clumsy BMS. There are undershirts with sleeves?
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Re: Tuesday, March 4, 2014 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by Onairb » Wed Mar 05, 2014 4:29 am

Yes, they have short sleeves. That's a thing.

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Re: Tuesday, March 4, 2014 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by teapot37 » Wed Mar 05, 2014 6:43 am

Mathew5000 wrote:
teapot37 wrote:When RyanFritz hit the first DD, I was all, "Is he gonna go palindromic?" And then he did, and I was happy.
Did he choose to wager palindromically because of the palindrome category in the Jeopardy round? Or was that just coincidence?
Coincidence. Whenever he wagered in the UToC (his only games I have watched), all his wagers were palindromes.
Not many people can say they've lost four times on Jeopardy!.

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Re: Tuesday, March 4, 2014 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by Coelacanth » Wed Mar 05, 2014 8:00 am

A couple of things about FJ. Pam can chime in here later if I've misstated anything.

The players took a LONG time to lock in their wagers. No, longer than that. My impression was that it was Pam taking most of the time, and I do think she was thinking more about 'what is Fritz going to wager?' than 'how much do I know about Borders?' She spent a lot of time doing math, trying to figure out her wager for several different Fritznarios. Eventually she decided on his most likely play and wagered accordingly. When I saw her wager I, like many in the audience (I suspect), thought 'all that work for $0?'

As to her FJ answer, she said she gave it almost no thought because she knew she'd wagered $0. Makes sense to me; I'd much rather look slightly silly for making an implausible guess and win than come up with a brilliant response and still lose. Or, as Slartibartfast put it much more eloquently, "I'd far rather be happy than right any day".
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Re: Tuesday, March 4, 2014 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by John Boy » Wed Mar 05, 2014 8:13 am

dnbguy wrote:
Figured a dyke would be between two low countries, guessed Netherlands and Belgium.
Had the same thought. Thought the mention of Hadrian's wall was simply a reference to size, not meant as a clue to locate the correct answer in the UK. Boo, hiss.

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Re: Tuesday, March 4, 2014 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by legendneverdies » Wed Mar 05, 2014 8:26 am

Dan Melia is/was a professor of Celtic history, so this FJ! would have favored him as he probably knows a little about the UK based on that :)

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Re: Tuesday, March 4, 2014 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by Johnblue » Wed Mar 05, 2014 8:33 am

Yes, as soon as Alex said that Dan answered FJ right away, I realized my answer of Germany-Holland was incorrect. My first wrong FJ in several weeks...

Great game today. I'm loving this tournament which surprises me since I wasn't looking forward to it at all.

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Re: Tuesday, March 4, 2014 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by koam » Wed Mar 05, 2014 8:58 am

TenPoundHammer wrote: Disney was tougher than I thought. NHO Smee; $1600 required knowledge far beyond Disney (I WAGged Tinker Bell). I can't even tell what $2000 was referring to. "Jiminy Cricket" + "Castle" is giving me no help at all, and there's no mention of castles on his Wikipedia article. Fireworks over a castle? Jiminy Cricket singing? What are they even talking about?!
The clue / cat mentioned Disney, castle, fireworks, song...and my mind went to "When you wish upon a star." I didn't know if that's from the Wonderful World of Disney credits or experiences at Disney World....but the song instantly came up for me and so I got Jiminy Cricket, who sang the song the first time.

Evidently it was from the show... even though I watched the original version on NBC Sunday nights in the 60s and 70s.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tkbou_3EBWc
Last edited by koam on Wed Mar 05, 2014 4:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Tuesday, March 4, 2014 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by FritzHolz » Wed Mar 05, 2014 8:58 am

Hi all! At the risk of being one of "those guys" who only posts when he's just been on the show... I'm posting because I was just on the show.

Regarding the final wagers, Pam and Dan and I did an email chat after the game, and we cover some of that territory. Here's the link: http://www.who2.com/blog/2014/03/inside ... contestant

I think y'all covered the strategic wagering possibilities here very well. I'd like to add one point I don't see mentioned much: the category. This time around, thanks to J! Archive and Internet technology in general, I was able to get a much better feel for my strongest and weakest categories, and so that played a bigger role in wagering (for me, anyway). I used to completely ignore the category when wagering in FJ, but in this situation I'd learned enough to know that geography isn't always a strong suit for me. That helped me make the wager. It sounds like Pam made a similar calculation, for which I can only salute her. A great wager.

And thanks for the palindrome betting love! I've always had fun with that.

Now back to my regular role as a now-and-then lurker.

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Re: Tuesday, March 4, 2014 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by periwinkle » Wed Mar 05, 2014 9:10 am

naurae29 wrote:I would have gotten "chifforobe" if you clued it as "This was the piece of furniture Mayella Ewell allegedly asked Tom Robinson to bust up in exchange for a nickel."
Yes!! When Pam said it, I said "Oh, that's the furniture from Mockingbird!"

I got Offa's Dyke right away -- I think I've heard of it only once or twice, and geographical features are not my strong point, but my surname through marriage is Welsh, and since I took it, I've paid more attention to Welsh facts. Probably crossed Offa's Dyke when we went to Wales in the '90s, though I don't specifically remember it.

Picked up Lach Trash on Van Gogh, Chagall, and others. (I think art + Hasidic is probably Pavlovian for Chagall? And music + Hasidic or reggae + Hasidic = Matisyahu.)
Last edited by periwinkle on Wed Mar 05, 2014 11:05 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Tuesday, March 4, 2014 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by georgespelvin » Wed Mar 05, 2014 9:46 am

I figured that Pam had turned her brain off for FJ after she decided to wager $0, so I'm not going to make fun of her response. I'm sure that no one thinks less of her for it. FWIW, count me in the group of folks that think that in a Master's Tournament like this there will be no gimme FJs (unlike last week in regular play) and that the category is a legitimate consideration under the circumstances here.

Golf does have a good point about what happens if you wager $0 from the lead and lose. You will regret it for the rest of your life--if for no other reason that mbclev will post about it periodically here asserting that. I hope for Arthur's sake that if he eventually loses in an unconventional way that mbclev doesn't work or live anywhere near him (as they are both from Cleveland at the moment I believe).
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Re: Tuesday, March 4, 2014 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by El Jefe » Wed Mar 05, 2014 9:49 am

This Is Kirk! wrote:
El Jefe wrote:I thought Offa's Dike sounded pretty close to Uff Da! and so put it between Norway and Sweden.
Now that would be one long dike!
D'oh! Indeed, in rereading the question
JClue wrote:Twice as long as Hadrian's wall, Offa's Dyke was the traditional border between these 2 lands.
they clearly implied the dyke *comprised* the entire (not just was on it) which would have ruled out NOR-SWE unless Hadrian's wall was 1000 miles long instead of just 71. In retro the term 'traditional' seems to be a hint that it's not UN countries since those have borders so often decided by "nontraditional" means (well, war is plenty traditional, anyway...)

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Re: Tuesday, March 4, 2014 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by flemmingfan » Wed Mar 05, 2014 10:26 am

FritzHolz wrote:Hi all! At the risk of being one of "those guys" who only posts when he's just been on the show... I'm posting because I was just on the show.

Regarding the final wagers, Pam and Dan and I did an email chat after the game, and we cover some of that territory. Here's the link: http://www.who2.com/blog/2014/03/inside ... contestant

I think y'all covered the strategic wagering possibilities here very well. I'd like to add one point I don't see mentioned much: the category. This time around, thanks to J! Archive and Internet technology in general, I was able to get a much better feel for my strongest and weakest categories, and so that played a bigger role in wagering (for me, anyway). I used to completely ignore the category when wagering in FJ, but in this situation I'd learned enough to know that geography isn't always a strong suit for me. That helped me make the wager. It sounds like Pam made a similar calculation, for which I can only salute her. A great wager.

And thanks for the palindrome betting love! I've always had fun with that.

Now back to my regular role as a now-and-then lurker.
Thanks for posting and including that "email" link, which BTW led me to peruse your commentary on the letters you received re your marital status. Also checked out Dan's link re Offa's Wall. It's always informative for viewers of my ilk to delve behind the scenes. Kudos to you and your fellow contestants for a well played enjoyable game.

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Re: Tuesday, March 4, 2014 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by sarah0114 » Wed Mar 05, 2014 10:44 am

dnbguy wrote:I confused George Miller (representative from California) with George Mitchell (senator from Maine, steroid investigator).
I knew there was a senator from Maine who had a scholarship named after him for students to go to Ireland, but I mixed up the scholarship names Mitchell and Marshall.

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Re: Tuesday, March 4, 2014 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by lieph82 » Wed Mar 05, 2014 10:44 am

Mathew5000 wrote:
teapot37 wrote:
TenPoundHammer wrote:Have they ever had to BMS a response twice before?
At least once, in this game.
I recall Ken Jennings being given two BMS's.
Edited to add: it was in Nancy Zerg's first game, the first clue in the Double Jeopardy round, Slang for $400.
You must be the only person in history to call it "Nancy Zerg's first game."

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Re: Tuesday, March 4, 2014 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by pamiam » Wed Mar 05, 2014 10:45 am

Coelacanth wrote:Pam can chime in here later if I've misstated anything.
*ding-dong!*
Coelacanth wrote:The players took a LONG time to lock in their wagers. No, longer than that. My impression was that it was Pam taking most of the time, and I do think she was thinking more about 'what is Fritz going to wager?' than 'how much do I know about Borders?' She spent a lot of time doing math, trying to figure out her wager for several different Fritznarios. Eventually she decided on his most likely play and wagered accordingly. When I saw her wager I, like many in the audience (I suspect), thought 'all that work for $0?'
To be fair, Brian didn't actually misstate anything. :) But in addition to all my figuring, there was also some minor technical glitch that they dealt with. However, I'm not even sure what it was, because I was distracted by several lovely makeup ladies intent on doing some serious powdering and foundation-ing of my decolletage (I tend to turn red in that area when I get nervous). That is to say, I did take the longest to make my wager, but there were also extenuating circumstances. If more people start making Fritz/Watson wagers, they're going to have to account for a longer break before FJ!

Watching the game, I realized that Alex's comments at the beginning of the game (unintentionally, I'm sure) were basically reinforcing the idea that the leader should really think about betting small. Other than that, I think the rest of what I'd say here is probably in Fritz's link. Well, maybe one more thing -- I definitely think there were things we all would have gotten in a regular game (Van Gogh, Lake Superior), but it seemed like in the first game, they were so clearly going for the non-obvious answer in several places that we (or at least I) was overthinking it.

Also, I wish they'd posted Brian's interview clips along with the rest of ours, because they were pretty hilarious.

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