Monday, March 24, 2014 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

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PeteMoss
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Re: Monday, March 24, 2014 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by PeteMoss »

opusthepenguin wrote:
cheezguyty wrote:
John Boy wrote:1. "Haiti" is not an island and the answer should have been counted wrong.
"Haiti" was the U.S. government's official name for the island of Hispaniola until the 1930s.
What's your source on that? My Google-fu has deserted me. Assuming it's correct, I withdraw my objection.
I have looked all over. I can't find this.
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Magna
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Re: Monday, March 24, 2014 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by Magna »

PeteMoss wrote:
opusthepenguin wrote:
cheezguyty wrote:
John Boy wrote:1. "Haiti" is not an island and the answer should have been counted wrong.
"Haiti" was the U.S. government's official name for the island of Hispaniola until the 1930s.
What's your source on that? My Google-fu has deserted me. Assuming it's correct, I withdraw my objection.
I have looked all over. I can't find this.
Here: "The entire island has been referred to as Haiti...."
http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/top ... Hispaniola
Shmuel
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Re: Monday, March 24, 2014 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by Shmuel »

For what it's worth...

The 1903 edition of Webster's Unabridged defines "Haytian" as "Of, or pertaining to, the island of Hayti." (Yes, with a "y" in both.)

The 1916 edition of Webster's New International Dictionary (dictionary geeks familiar with "Webster's Second" and "Webster's Third" may think of this as "Webster's First") changes the spelling to "Haitian" and "Haiti." The Gazetteer section helpfully notes that "Hispaniola" is "a former name of Haiti island." Similarly, the gazetteer entry for "Dominican Republic" notes that it's "the E. part of Haiti isl."

The island is "Hispaniola" in my copy of Webster's Second, but I can't be sure just when the change was made. (While that edition was first printed in 1934, my copy is a later printing. The title/copyright page is mostly shredded, but it was certainly printed no earlier than 1950.)

I can take photos of the relevant pages if need be. :)
MDCSWildcats86
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Re: Monday, March 24, 2014 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by MDCSWildcats86 »

TryingHarder wrote:I got Curly. If anybody has ever seen a picture of Custer it is an apt nickname.

The bear is a symbol of Bern, Switzerland. If you have ever seen a toblerone, which is from Bern, it has a bear hidden in the Matterhorn.

Nailed Curly even without the dead giveaway of his birth name (Jerry Howard).

Don't know if mentioning "Jerry Howard" in the clue would have dumbed it down any.
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Mathew5000
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Re: Monday, March 24, 2014 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by Mathew5000 »

chalupabatman786 wrote:
Mathew5000 wrote: [...trimmed for space...]
I. Joe wagers 0. Wins if Nancy wagers ≥ 6800 and Derek wagers ≥ 5400 and they are both wrong:
0.85 * 0.8 * 0.3 = 0.2

II. Joe wagers 6400. Wins on a sole get if Nancy wagers ≥ 400. Also wins on a double get by Derek and Joe if Derek wagers ≤ 1000.
(0.1 * 0.98) + (0.07 * 0.1) = 0.1

III. Joe wagers 3599. Wins on a triple stumper if Nancy wagers ≥ 10400 and Derek wagers ≥ 8999. Also wins on a sole get if Nancy wagers ≥ 3201 and Derek wagers ≥ 1801.
(0.2 * 0.8 * 0.6) + (0.1 * 0.9 * 0.9) = 0.18

Based on my analysis, Joe should wager 0, giving him about a 20% chance of winning.
I really like your thinking, but your conclusion is iffy at best. The difference between 0.2 and 0.18 is minuscule, and if you fiddled with your initial estimates even a tiny bit you would come to the opposite conclusion.
To decide between wagering 0 or 3599, I agree that it's too close for the difference to be meaningful. The takeaway message, however, is that either one of those wagers is significantly better than the all-in wager (which Joe actually made, and which was described upthread as defensible).
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Re: Monday, March 24, 2014 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by seaborgium »

Just as most people don't want to make the strategically sound wager from the lead that can get one passed from behind, many don't want to make a strategically sound wager from third place that guarantees a loss if second merely covers.
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Lefty
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Re: Monday, March 24, 2014 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by Lefty »

Just for the record, as I assume everybody agrees with me about the weakness of the FJ: Before giving away my copy of "Son of the Morning Star", I looked up "Curly" in the index, and it does appear, somewhat significantly, as the name of the Crow scout who was arguably the only survivor from Custer's side (looking at Little Bighorn as a campaign rather than just the battle, as fighting was not part of the scout's job description), aside from Keogh's horse Comanche.
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davey
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Re: Monday, March 24, 2014 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by davey »

Lefty wrote:Just for the record, as I assume everybody agrees with me about the weakness of the FJ: Before giving away my copy of "Son of the Morning Star", I looked up "Curly" in the index, and it does appear, somewhat significantly, as the name of the Crow scout who was arguably the only survivor from Custer's side (looking at Little Bighorn as a campaign rather than just the battle, as fighting was not part of the scout's job description), aside from Keogh's horse Comanche.
This was mentioned earlier in the thread-
http://www.jboard.tv/viewtopic.php?f=1& ... ar#p106662
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Lefty
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Re: Monday, March 24, 2014 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by Lefty »

davey wrote:
Lefty wrote:Just for the record, as I assume everybody agrees with me about the weakness of the FJ: Before giving away my copy of "Son of the Morning Star", I looked up "Curly" in the index, and it does appear, somewhat significantly, as the name of the Crow scout who was arguably the only survivor from Custer's side (looking at Little Bighorn as a campaign rather than just the battle, as fighting was not part of the scout's job description), aside from Keogh's horse Comanche.
This was mentioned earlier in the thread-
http://www.jboard.tv/viewtopic.php?f=1& ... ar#p106662
Ah, i see. Sorry about that. And sorry for bumping this thread yet again. I'm not sure which I'm more sorry about.
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