Wednesday, May 14, 2014 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

[SwanShadow]

For the benefit of any who might have missed it, Brad and Roger have faced each other on a quiz show previously:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1TUNcQO4v8A

Kudos to all of the players in this semifinal field. Worthy champions all, and you each represented yourselves and your Decade's fellow champs admirably. I don't stand and applaud in front of my television very often, but I have each of the last three evenings. These games have been so tough to watch, given that I've met many of you in person at some point over the years, and I like all of you that I've met.

I'm looking forward to the final matchup we've all anticipated.

[JyV92]

At the taping, the only person I talked to who got it around us was Cliff, Pam. I thought her father might've been teh Duke of Brunswick, so went with New Brunswick after being caught up in the city thing or a while as well.

Pam is a very crazy strong player - at least I think so. She had me on the ropes , well she and Frank did, and I was only saved by her missing the FJ (as was Brad Rutter in his game against Steve Chernicoff and Michael rooney in the UToC - J-archive has the game if any of you don't believe me). I liked this game very much. Vulgate was a gimme for me. Would've LOVED having that on my board earlier.

As for Schiller's An die Freude, I learned it as a kid listening to the Ninth over and over with the libretto in front of me. Learning German many years later didn't help. And anyway- the way German works there are idiosyncratic (hapax legomena?) words in the poem... Sternenzelt - (tent of stars). Like welkin in English... rare.

Anyway - whatevs. Pam rocks. colby is good, so is Roger, good game. Good finals. Only wish Tom Cubbage hand't remembered Medvedev. Would've been great to play again (or to have known Edith Gault Wilson's maiden name at the time).

[Onairb]

Is PEI a common enough abbreviation that they'd accept it? Judges?

Almost certainly acceptable.

By the time I 'steered away from' Vancouver Island, there would have been only enough time to write 'PEI'.

[ten96lt]

Interesting now that J! updated the website for the final 3, they include their average Coryat as one of their stats.

[Onairb]

As for a response to the troll, the only one who did a lousy job in this game was Alex, who could not pronounce a single syllable of German recognizably. That really pisses me off. How much is he paid to do this job? Allegedly, $10 million a year. How about doing some work to actually earn that?

An "alternate timeline where the Axis won the war" version of Alex is fluent in the language. Try tuning in to THAT version sometime.

[Schliemann]

RCraig blowing up like you thought he would.

That was awesome.

In another way cooler universe there's a "Legends of Jeopardy" series on GSN where the best to ever do it play games like this one/this tournament on some sort of regular (nightly?) basis. I know they had that "Battle of the Game Show Heroes" or whatever series thing a few years back but picture something (no lawsuits) that looked and played like Jeopardy that was populated by the game's greats. I know I'd watch Brad/Ken/Roger/Jerome/Madden/Pam/Chernicoff/Leszek/Joon/AP play every night if possible.

I kept a Coryat tonight for the hell of it and did 48/60 for $43,000.

[econgator]

^ And people say that German is an ugly sounding language. I read that passage out loud and it has some pretty serious fahrvergnügen.

I like saying fahrvergnügen. It's my go-to gag word. I probably use it more than Mad used "potrzebie".

That reminds me. Everyone should go take my Sporcle quiz on German loan words:

http://www.sporcle.com/games/opusthepen ... -clickable

100% in 2 minutes, 2 seconds.

55%

[dhkendall]

Who knows the lyrics to Ode to Joy in German? Ugh.

If the lyrics of "Ode to Joy" weren't the unofficial* lyrics to a "national" anthem, I would have guessed no boardies would. (Frankly, I am surprised at how many came out of the Schrank to say that they knew it - I suppose I should stop being amazed at the eruditeness of this crowd (especially when I play Think Different against them), but I am impressed at some of y'all. Sadly, I couldn't quite get it in time )

*officially, the anthem to the European Union is wordless, just Beethoven's melody, as the anthem is in "the international language of music" - fitting considering how many languages are in the EU, but I still often hear lyrics performed at performances of the anthem, even some official ones (sometimes in the original German no matter where it's performed, sometimes with the lyrics translated into a native language.)

Unless Roger can capitalize on his superior knowledge of wagering strategy, I don't think he has much of a chance against Ken and Brad. His attempts to ring in first and figure it out burned him a few times. It reminded me of when Jerome Vered tried the same strategy against Brad and Ken in the UToC final. Same result.

Roger has an advantage over Jerome though, in that Roger tried the strategy *before* he faced Ken and Brad and learned it wouldn't' work (for him). Jerome however, had to "do it live", and there was no second chances. Roger definitely seems like the kind of person to learn from his mistakes (he seems to take everything as a learning opportunity) and something tells me that he learned from this experience, and vowed to try not to do it in the Finals. Whether he will or not remains to be seen, but his data analyzing mind I'm sure showed him that this wasn't going to work in the finals.

I can feel better about my FJ miss in that my first thought, which was quickly ruled out, was one one of the contestants used, and my second thought, which I stayed with for the remaining 25 seconds, was another one of the ones the contestants used. PEI is the Delaware of Canada, people tend to neglect it since it's kind of tiny and tucked away in there and unless it's Anne of Green Gables or potatoes, isn't known for much.

I don't know why this odd thought occurred to me today when they were showing who Roger's opponents would be at the end, but it did: Ken and Brad's original locations, during their original runs (Salt Lake City and Lancaster County, Pennsylvania, respectively) are both most famous for being the epicentre of two well-known Christian sects (the Mormon and the Amish, respectively), and thus for being very religious places. Odd thought, and I *know* for a fact Brad isn't Amish, and correlation doesn't mean causation and all that, but it is a very interesting coincidence that occurred to me.

[heelsrule1988]

I know I'd watch Brad/Ken/Roger/Jerome/Madden/Pam/Chernicoff/Leszek/Joon/AP play every night if possible.

I'd watch you play BUT IT HASN'T HAPPENED YET.

[jpahk]

Nobody's expected to know ALL the lyrics. I'd say the first six words are definitely TOC-level knowledge.

that about sums it up. if you've ever sung beethoven's 9th, there's a reasonable chance you might remember the first few words. i did. my wife, who speaks german, did not. by the way, i am loving jerome's use of hapax legomena, which may in fact be a hapax legomenon for jboard (well, not any more now that i've mentioned it—sorry).

difficult board tonight, but one that played to my strengths much more than some of the other boards this tournament. i ran the vulgate and german (i even knew the german word for butterfly because my kids have this game—not that it was really necessary to answer that clue) and picked up some other assorted lach trash—i didn't add it up, but it might have been enough for a 4th-podium win, something i definitely wasn't expecting in this game. congrats to all three players, who have been unsurprisingly great all tournament, and good luck to roger in the finals. that is some must-see TV. i am hoping roger ends the clam-negging experiment sooner rather than later, because he's been my pick all along to win the whole thing.

In another way cooler universe there's a "Legends of Jeopardy" series on GSN where the best to ever do it play games like this one/this tournament on some sort of regular (nightly?) basis. I know they had that "Battle of the Game Show Heroes" or whatever series thing a few years back but picture something (no lawsuits) that looked and played like Jeopardy that was populated by the game's greats. I know I'd watch Brad/Ken/Roger/Jerome/Madden/Pam/Chernicoff/Leszek/Joon/AP play every night if possible.

aw geez. not sure i deserve to be in that list, but i would gladly take a podium because it sounds ridiculously fun.

[Kevin B]

For the benefit of any who might have missed it, Brad and Roger have faced each other on a quiz show previously:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1TUNcQO4v8A

I had never seen any of that series of videos before; cool, thanks for posting it!

[Mathew5000]

I, like Colby, landed on New Brunswick in FJ! I spent the rest of my time fruitlessly wandering around eastern Canada.

New Brunswick was my guess too, and I'm kicking myself because I really ought to have known PEI.

For future reference, here is a list of the origins of the names of Canadian provinces and territories, from Canada's Department of Natural Resources.

(New Brunswick was in honour of George III.)

[yclept]

This was a very good game all around.

Pam, you played very well. Not sure why you would think you let anyone down. Bottom line is that any big tournament in the future that doesn't include you isn't complete. 2 semifinal appearances in the 2 biggest tournaments Jeopardy has ever put together is quite an achievement. I always wonder about the confidence aspect of being on the show. Do you ring in when you are kinda sure, but aren't fully confident in your answer? For Roger, the answer is Yes. For a player like Pam, the answer is more likely to be No. That doesn't make it a bad strategy...it leads you to answering the questions you know, and likely less wrong answers than a player like Roger generates.

Colby did well to keep Roger from making this a runaway going into FJ. Teacher's Tournament, TOC winner, and semi finalist here? As with Pam, he has earned his spot in any future tournament.

I think Roger's strategy is actually perfect for going up against Ken &Brad. If he wants to keep pace, he is going to have to keep ringing in and hope the answers pop into his head. If he stays within range and hits those DDs, he just might make this a 3-way battle to the finish. I hope the tournament isn't decided until the FJ answers are revealed on Friday.

[JoshuaRQI]

I agree. I think Roger has to stay just as aggressive and accept just as many losses. In my mind his real chance is in hitting those daily doubles, and the only way to do all you can to guarantee you have control of the board is to ring in whenever you think there's even a Chance you will come up with the answer before the timer runs out. You have to accept that you will miss a bunch of clues, but you also have to believe that the prize (the daily doubles, and keeping them away from your competition!) is worth it. He's not going to beat Brad and Ken on buzzer skill and general knowledge alone if he doesn't take those risks. He's a great Jeopardy! player, but Ken and Brad are in the super tier.

For all this talk about Roger having done so much research and thus should be able to out-wager Ken and Brad... I completely disagree. He makes optimal bets, but that's because he's done what a few posters here suggest and has taken the time to ensure that he does wager appropriately. But it's not like Ken hasn't been doing the exact same thing. And if Brad ever had this problem in the past, I'm unsure that it'll really be an issue at this point. What little wagering evidence we've had (too many locks, haha) seems to point toward him making completely rational wagers, also.

No, what Roger has done is calculated that control of the board will, in general, give you a higher likelihood of winning. His strategy has become even more apparent in this tournament because it's even more important against this competition. How do you beat the super tier? Well you can't magically reach their level of trivia knowledge and buzzer skill. But Jeopardy! is a game, and you Can exploit the loopholes and find what little advantages there might exist. Arthur Chu became a villain utilizing the "Forrest Bounce"/"Roger Dodger"/"Chu Choose A New Category" Daily Double Hunt. Now Roger is showing us something a little deeper than that. He is betting that board control, or rather a an extended version of winning the buzzer battle, can net him gains to outweigh his losses. Against buzzer behemoths, he can't win in a straight up battle. But he can grab control more often than not and give himself a chance to get those questions right and give him a chance to double up and prevent others from making large wagers.

Roger has shown us that it's not just being good at trivia and being quick on the buzzer, but it's about looking at the actual game play mechanics and calculating ways to improve your own odds beyond those two initial necessary requirements.

Example:

Spoiler

Let's say Roger wins the buzzer battle 24%, Ken 38%, Brad 38% on clues they all know. (just example numbers)
Ken and Brad know 90% of the clues. Let's say Roger knows 85%. (just example numbers)
60 Clues, 3 DDs
Brad and Ken will battle on 54 clues, each nabbing about ~20-21 based on buzzer battle wins.
Roger will, similarly, only nab ~12-13 clues!

Clearly, playing straight up Jeopardy! will not work for Roger, and all three are hunting for the DDs. My numbers are likely exaggerated, but you could imagine even with smaller differences that something like this paradigm exists.

Now, let's assume that instead of only battling for clues he knows, Roger tries to ring in on ALL of them.
In my example, and I'm regretting the buzzer speed I chose for him, he'll get 14-15 clues from a battle, but remember there will also be a few that Ken and Brad won't ring in on. Roger is now closing the gap because you'll add a few more so that he's at 17-18, and he'll take away some of the Ken/Brad buzzer wins because now he's trying to time and win the buzzer battle almost all the time whereas before he was trying to figure out the clue and then figure out the buzzer battle.

This, again, is exaggerated. He will of course only ring in on clues he thinks he has a chance at rather than EVERY clue, but the principle is that he'll grab more clues and have a better shot at board control and thus a better shot at DD control.

I'm sure Roger has some assigned X value for a DD. All he has to do is make sure X > Y where Y is the negative value attributed to going for all those clues he only has a "chance" to get right. Is it math, wordplay, the periodic table, US Presidents? If it's something he studied, it's something he has a shot at pulling out of the ol' memory bank. Maybe the get rate drops to 40% from 95% (higher number because comparing against likelihood of knowing clues that you Ring In for). So in effect each time he rings in on these "chance" clues, he is in all likelihood going to lose Y dollars, but it doesn't matter. He's upped his chance of controlling the board for the next clue from 0% UP TO 40% (he still might have a buzzer battle, of course).

All of this is exaggerated. But again, against Jeopardy! machines like Ken and Brad, you have to take these gambles.

[Mathew5000]

THE "CITY" for $1600, “An 1854 U.S.-Canada treaty was this type, saying we'll drop our customs tariffs if you will”.

Here's the text of the 1854 treaty. It wasn't exactly a "U.S.-Canada" treaty because it was a treaty between the U.S. and the U.K., with application not only to the Province of Canada but also to Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, P.E.I., and Newfoundland (which were not part of "Canada").

Wikipedia is even more erroneous in referring to it as a treaty "between the United Province of Canada and the United States".

[Sage on the Hudson]

is PEI a common enough abbreviation that they'd accept it? Judges?

Yes; it's also an acceptable response for clues concerning Chinese-American architects.

[OldSchoolChamp]

[T]he only thing I feel bad about is letting down the people who hoped I’d do better.

Pam, I can’t begin to imagine why you would think this. You’ve shown four times, now (College Championship, TOC, UTOC, BotD) that you fully deserve your place among the elite. Speaking not just as a friend but simply as a fan of the game, it’s always a pleasure watching you compete and hold your own at this level. Looking forward to seeing you do it again someday.

Best—

—Steve


P. S. Give my regards to Firestone and remember me to Nassau Hall.

[OldSchoolChamp]

In another way cooler universe there's a "Legends of Jeopardy" series on GSN where the best to ever do it play games like this one/this tournament on some sort of regular (nightly?) basis. . . . I know I'd watch Brad/Ken/Roger/Jerome/Madden/Pam/Chernicoff/Leszek/Joon/AP play every night if possible.

Thanks for the shout. I’d play every night if possible!

And don’t forget Dan, Frank, Arthur, Bob, Larissa, Chuck, Leslie, Babu, Maria, Stefan, Shane, India, Mike Daunt, Jay Rhee, John Cuthbertson, Brian Moore, Stephanie, Kristin (not to mention Julia, who’ll be back next week) . . . When do we start??

[earendel]

My wife, who was watching with me, looked at me and deadpanned, "Duke of Kent - must be Kentucky." I laughed so hard that I almost didn't come up with PEI in time (yeah, I'm a cheap laugh). Hard to believe that I'm 3 for 3 in FJ!s this week.

[pdano]

Three really amazing players. Wildly entertaining game. Roger, do Brooklyn proud.

On Final, Chuck and Mark were in the back of the contestant section chuckling, because this fact is in their book.