Thursday, June 19, 2014 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

[opusthepenguin]

She pretty much lost in the worst possible way to lose, so ...

Only if she comes to understand what she did. I suspect most contestants who lose that way never figure it out.

Friends, family and acquaintenances will no doubt point it out to her, often and forever.

I'd say the odds are pretty slim that she has even one person in those circles who will recognize the mistake, let alone be boorish enough to point it out. If she decides to come and meet all of us fine folk, her odds go up considerably. On both conditions.

I'd love to chat with her and congratulate her on the gutsy DD, tell her how my heart stopped when she almost forgot to form her correct response as a question, was cheering for her as she and Troy kept exchanging the lead, and frustrated for her when she lost the lead at the end and then lost the game.

But for her sake, I hope she declines to make our acquaintenance.

[Category 13]

[quote=RKane]Well, buckle your seatbelts, I think we have the next superchampion on our hands here. Just a hunch.[/quote]

Ooops

[bpmod]

She pretty much lost in the worst possible way to lose, so ...

Only if she comes to understand what she did. I suspect most contestants who lose that way never figure it out.

Friends, family and acquaintenances will no doubt point it out to her, often and forever.

Only if she's acquainted with mbclev.

I'd say the odds are pretty slim that she has even one person in those circles who will recognize the mistake, let alone be boorish enough to point it out. If she decides to come and meet all of us fine folk, her odds go up considerably. On both conditions.

I'd love to chat with her and congratulate her on the gutsy DD, tell her how my heart stopped when she almost forgot to form her correct response as a question, was cheering for her as she and Troy kept exchanging the lead, and frustrated for her when she lost the lead at the end and then lost the game.

But for her sake, I hope she declines to make our acquaintenance.

Well said.

Brian

[xxaaaxx]

Well, buckle your seatbelts, I think we have the next superchampion on our hands here. Just a hunch.

Ooops

How about, 'buckle your seatbelts, the one day champ carousel is spinning at full speed' ?

[Paucle]

acquaintenance

=the countenance of friends?

[Spaceman Spiff]

Anyone else pick Chrysler over GM?

I'd considered it, but since it basically was taken over (shotgun marriage?) by Fiat, I stuck with GM.

Was screaming at the screen for Spaced Out. Gemini? Nobody ever heard of the Gemini program? I'm a space nut for sure, but, oy.

Sadly, most folks who only have casual knowledge of the Space Race know of Mercury (if only because of The Right Stuff) and Apollo (because of the moon landings). The intervening Gusmobile Gemini program usually gets forgotten; other than the initial American "Space Walk" of Ed White, most of the missions were pretty mundane -- rendezvous and docking, endurance flights (14 days in the same clothes in something roughly the size of the front seat of a VW Bug? Yikes!), that sort of thing. They were necessary steps to get ready to go to the moon, but it wasn't very glamorous. So, it doesn't stick in the general public's mind, nearly 50 years later.

[mrparadise]

acquaintenance

=the countenance of friends?

I should probably achew that second glass of wine before watching J! and/or posting.

[Spaceman Spiff]

I should probably achew ...

Gesundheit!

[opusthepenguin]

Troy missed his opportunity to be the first male multi-game winner since Arthur Chu. But this was still a significant day for the less fair sex. Tournaments excepted, you have to go back to March 18/19 to find two male champs in a row. I wonder if Angie's unfortunate wager has jeopardized the rift trend. I'm not sure I'm ready for an inchange.

[cosmos]

I believe the trick with the Gemini clue is to know that the Apollo program started before Gemini. That's why Gemini was called "this new U.S. program" in the clue, and Apollo was incorrect because it was already an older program in 1964.

You could argue that the Soviets were one-upping Apollo by putting three men in a single capsule first, so in that sense Troy was not incorrect. They didn't have to have one more man on board and literally one-up Gemini, just doing it first one-upped all the U.S. space programs.

[MarkBarrett]

I see that many of you had the Greeley and Danny Boyle DDs correct as mentioned in your comments. The other two players did not have a chance on those clues, so it is getting missed DDs correct, but not Lach Trash.

Many times I've seen less than impressive players find a way to get the win. Sometimes I give them the benefit of the doubt and think they can win again while others make me feel confident their one win will be it. For Brian I can't get past the Anne Rice for Stephenie Meyer, Doug Flutie for Steve Young and NASA for Gemini misses. He will not be playing on Monday. Nice work with the sole solve to be a Jeopardy! champ though.

Can the CCs find a happy middle ground? Between Desiree from yesterday and Angie today we had wide extremes for energy and game play that went too far in my opinion with one appearance more than enough.

I'm with Rex for gentle/gently and it will not be on the poll. It's not negbait, but basic quotation knowledge.

The first time I learned about Pike Market is easy to remember. The Real World in 1998. Since then as already mentioned it's one of those things shown during Seahawks home games. Throw in the about half a dozen times it's been used on J! itself and by no means is it for Seattle people only.

Put one more in the Chrysler column for me. I wrote that and General Motors and went the wrong way on a Dawson Crossin'. Unlike others at least I narrowed it to the automobile industry.

My 7 in a row survived science, geography and word origins clues, so I'm not surprised my luck ran out tonight with one of my least favorite categories. The writers can't be cruel enough to serve up Shakespeare tomorrow.

[danspartan]

1st had a chance to angle for a tie at the end of DJ. He was up 400 with a 400 clue ;eft on the board (which he answered correctly). If he puts down the buzzer, he has a 50/50 shot 2nd will ring in and a high% of the time she will answer it correctly.

That gets to a prisoners dilemma and the correct bet should be 0, even mathematically if we are worried about our opponent betting it all:

Lets see if we can do the math on our dilemma

Simple explanation: if we bet 0, we win anytime our opponent bets 0 and anytime our opponent is wrong, then we win. Since our opponent is wrong almost 50% of the time, we need her to bet 0 a tiny fraction of the time to break even. Any higher % of her betting 0 and we are "ahead" as far as win % (EV discussed below).

Complicated:

w=fraction that our opponent answers wrong
z=fraction that our opponent bets 0

Win fraction=z+w(1-z) so for the point where winning and losing are equally likely:

.5=z+w(1-z)

If w=.5 (opponent is wrong 50% of the time), then z=0.
--If we bet 0, then we will win 50% of the time when our opponent shoves
--If our opponent bets zero>0% of the time, then we win >50%

If we go to an extreme w=.4 (opponent is wrong 40% of the time, then z=1/6)
.5=z+.4-.4z
.1=.6z
z=1/6

So in the extreme case were our opponent is wrong only 40% of the time, we need her to bet 0 only 1/6 of the time to be breakeven on win%.

I'm good on counting on her 1/6 of the time to bet 0.

(Using w=.47 which is "typical", then the breakeven point is at about a z=1/18, so its really tipped in favor of just betting 0).

(Again ignoring today's EV. I estimate "win EV" alone at between 8-9K, we are 1/3 to win 18K, then 1/9 to win 18K, then 1/27 to win 18K....assuming average win is 18K and winning is random 1 out of 3.
"win EV" dwarfs any extra EV we get by shoving)

[Spaceman Spiff]

I believe the trick with the Gemini clue is to know that the Apollo program started before Gemini. That's why Gemini was called "this new U.S. program" in the clue, and Apollo was incorrect because it was already an older program in 1964.

You could argue that the Soviets were one-upping Apollo by putting three men in a single capsule first, so in that sense Troy was not incorrect. They didn't have to have one more man on board and literally one-up the Americans, just do it first.

Huh? Apollo was barely in the Little Joe II boilerplate tests in 1964.

Khrushchev was always looking to one-up the Americans whenever possible. Knowing the Gemini two-man craft was coming online, he had the Voskhod built (basically, a Vostok with three couches crammed in -- and no room for spacesuits; definitely a high risk mission) to launch three men, and got it off the ground five months before Gemini 3 (the first manned one).

[econgator]

(14 days in the same clothes in something roughly the size of the front seat of a VW Bug? Yikes!)

Or, like it says on the plaque in the Rocket Garden at KSC about Mercury:

IMG_0385.JPG (90.66 KiB) Viewed 2483 times

[cosmos]

I'm talking about the program, not the launches. The Apollo program began in 1961 and Gemini was created in 1962. The clue refers to a U.S. program in the year 1964, and the Soviets one-upped all of them. But Troy was negged on Apollo. Hence, they must have been thinking that Gemini was new and Apollo was not.

[econgator]

Huh? Apollo was barely in the Little Joe II boilerplate tests in 1964.

The timeline was:

May, 1961 -- Kennedy proposes Apollo
Dec, 1961 -- Mercury Mark II proposed
Jan, 1962 -- name changed to Gemini

So, maybe that's what he means. But yeah, Gemini was pretty much over before Apollo made to even the Saturn I-B's.

[seaborgium]

After having the seldom-seen cajones to do the TDD and get herself back in contention

Cajones means "boxes."

It's a good thing Angie rephrased her DD response in time; otherwise she would have finished at -$11,000.

[Golf]

Angie played such a good game with the TDD and jumping to the bottom of the board, how could she then make the ignorant wager that cost her 5 figures plus?

[Vanya]

After having the seldom-seen cajones to do the TDD and get herself back in contention

Cajones means "boxes."

It's still appropriate.

[seaborgium]

I don't think it is when plural.