If you were in second place in a double-lock game...

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Would you risk your second place?

Bet it all!
8
19%
No, that's just silly!
21
49%
Depends on the FJ category
14
33%
 
Total votes: 43

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schoe
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If you were in second place in a double-lock game...

Post by schoe » Thu Oct 23, 2014 9:33 pm

If you were in second place in a double-lock game -- let's say first had $22,000, you had $10,000 and third had $4,000 -- would you just bet $0 to maintain your guaranteed extra $1,000 for coming in second, or would you bet it all hoping for the scant scant chance that first decides to bet for the tie, i.e., bets $2,000? Or maybe that FJ makes a math error in his/her betting (unlikely in my scenario with nice round numbers but maybe possible if the numbers are rougher)? Or maybe just for pride so that you can say you went on Jeopardy and got $20,000, even though first beat you, rather than $10,000? Would you put your extra $1,000 of real second place cash at risk for that? Or would you wager it safe and keep your extra $1,000, knowing though that that makes it definite that in FJ you're playing for nothing? (I guess in some way this question asks what's worth more to you - a real $1,000, or that slim chance of a Jeopardy moment?) So what do you say?
Last edited by schoe on Thu Oct 23, 2014 10:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Linear Gnome
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Re: If you were in second place in a double-lock game...

Post by Linear Gnome » Thu Oct 23, 2014 9:48 pm

In a recent game, the player in second place bet the equivalent of $9900 in your scenario. Now that's just silly.

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Re: If you were in second place in a double-lock game...

Post by dhkendall » Thu Oct 23, 2014 10:45 pm

Depends on the category. Always.
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Re: If you were in second place in a double-lock game...

Post by MarkBarrett » Thu Oct 23, 2014 11:00 pm

I did not vote. For me it would have very likely depended on whether it was my first game or not. As a returning champ with money in the bank I would be more willing to throw away $1000 for a slim shot at hitting the lottery. If it is day one I would only have done it if I had seen the returning champ offer such a tie in the previous game even if a wheelhouse category appeared.

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boson
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Re: If you were in second place in a double-lock game...

Post by boson » Thu Oct 23, 2014 11:52 pm

Of all the scenarios to worry about when you get on the show, this is the least of your worries.

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Re: If you were in second place in a double-lock game...

Post by seaborgium » Fri Oct 24, 2014 12:38 am

I voted bet it all, but that's just because the next time I will be on will be a show where there's no difference between the payouts for second and third. (Of course, there might be a wild card situation, in which case betting it all is still a possible choice.)

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Re: If you were in second place in a double-lock game...

Post by WilliamPorygon » Fri Oct 24, 2014 1:16 am

Ah crap, I voted before reading the post and somehow misread "double-lock" as "lock-tie" for some reason. :oops:

I'd just bet nothing, or at least not enough to risk losing the extra grand for second. I'm already aware that I'm not that great of a Jeopardy! player; if I did get on the show somehow I'd just be happy to have money to play the Final.

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Re: If you were in second place in a double-lock game...

Post by Caboom » Fri Oct 24, 2014 2:39 am

Like I said in the other thread, throwing away $20,000 (or $19,000, as I'd get $2,000, instead of a minimum of $21,000) and another appearance would hurt a thousand times more than losing that extra $1,000, so I would have to bet it all, despite it being mathematically incorrect. And I guess the offer for tie would be the most likely way for me to continue. (Has anybody researched how often people clavin vs offer the tie from a lock position?)

As to what Mark said, if it was a later game, the extra $1,000 wouldn't matter. But if it was my first game, I would want atleast one victory, so it evens out for me.

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Re: If you were in second place in a double-lock game...

Post by nightreign » Fri Oct 24, 2014 6:25 am

When I was in this situation, I bet my max that I could without falling into third place. Why? I don't know. Hubris? My betting machine running on automatic? I think I just thought it would be really anticlimactic to bet zero, so I bet something, even though it didn't mean anything.
If I were in that same situation in a tournament, with wildcards and no difference between second and third, I would have unquestionably bet it all. I'd never consider that in a regular game, though.

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Re: If you were in second place in a double-lock game...

Post by nserven » Fri Oct 24, 2014 7:50 am

I'd be too bitter about being locked out to worry about what is rational.

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Re: If you were in second place in a double-lock game...

Post by GoodStrategy » Fri Oct 24, 2014 4:16 pm

seaborgium wrote:I voted bet it all, but that's just because the next time I will be on will be a show where there's no difference between the payouts for second and third. (Of course, there might be a wild card situation, in which case betting it all is still a possible choice.)
It will (most likely, barring a reset of eligibility) also be a show where it'd be foolish to bet for the tie unless you're in a scenario that calls for it.

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Re: If you were in second place in a double-lock game...

Post by Golf » Fri Oct 24, 2014 10:10 pm

Bet it all, why?

1, leaders make mistakes risking their lock
2, leaders occasionally offer the tie

And (to me) there's no difference between $2k and $1k, less when taxes are figured in. That extra $1k is worth the potential gain. And if 3rd bets it all and misses you still get the $2k.

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Re: If you were in second place in a double-lock game...

Post by countyguy » Fri Oct 24, 2014 10:39 pm

Why would you bet it all? Pure hubris, you are supposed to bet to retain your lock over third. You don't want Keith to give you a red rectangle, do you?

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Re: If you were in second place in a double-lock game...

Post by Caboom » Sat Oct 25, 2014 2:30 am

countyguy wrote:Why would you bet it all? Pure hubris, you are supposed to bet to retain your lock over third. You don't want Keith to give you a red rectangle, do you?
Keith always advocates maximizing your chances of winning. So why not do that here? Unless your goal all along was to place 2nd...

I'd bet you'd get a tie/victory in this situation as often as you'd gain anything for betting for the tie (from the lead, in non-lock situations) (you only gain advantage from betting for the tie if 1) you miss and then tie someone else, instead of losing by $1, or if 2) someone bets it all later in the week, after seeing you offer the tie earlier, resulting in your victory). Granted, the downside in offering the tie is lower, but still.

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Re: If you were in second place in a double-lock game...

Post by alietr » Sat Oct 25, 2014 6:35 am

Has anybody ever looked at the data to see how many times the leader risked a lock? I'm guessing the incidence rate is very, very low, making the expected value of betting it all not worth it.

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Re: If you were in second place in a double-lock game...

Post by TheyCallMeMrKid » Sat Oct 25, 2014 8:54 am

There's also a non-zero probability that 3rd place would bet everything which would mean you would still get the 2nd place money on a double miss even if you also bet it all.

The reason I say this is that the 3rd place player might not fully understand wagering strategy, plus I think someone "locked" in 3rd place could either a) hope that you also might offer a tie on a miss (although we know that doesn't matter for the prize money) or b) try to make their score look as good as possible.
Sheepin' it real.

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Re: If you were in second place in a double-lock game...

Post by Woof » Sat Oct 25, 2014 9:33 am

Second place can bet $2000 without risking anything. It seems to me no more likely that first would wager $2000 than that he/she would wager $10000. Both are utterly silly wagers.

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Re: If you were in second place in a double-lock game...

Post by lieph82 » Sat Oct 25, 2014 1:02 pm

alietr wrote:Has anybody ever looked at the data to see how many times the leader risked a lock? I'm guessing the incidence rate is very, very low, making the expected value of betting it all not worth it.
It wouldn't take the leader risking a lock to make it worthwhile--betting it all is the move here if the leader offers a tie. While offering a tie in a lock game does not improve your probability of winning that game (that's why Keith doesn't suggest it and Arthur never did it), if you believe your opponent is weak and you can easily beat him the next day (a potentially dangerous assumption, but, hey, you did lock him out today!), you might offer a tie in this situation. We've seen at least one contestant do so this season in the post-Arthur/VT era.

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Re: If you were in second place in a double-lock game...

Post by jeff6286 » Sat Oct 25, 2014 3:05 pm

lieph82 wrote:
alietr wrote:Has anybody ever looked at the data to see how many times the leader risked a lock? I'm guessing the incidence rate is very, very low, making the expected value of betting it all not worth it.
It wouldn't take the leader risking a lock to make it worthwhile--betting it all is the move here if the leader offers a tie. While offering a tie in a lock game does not improve your probability of winning that game (that's why Keith doesn't suggest it and Arthur never did it), if you believe your opponent is weak and you can easily beat him the next day (a potentially dangerous assumption, but, hey, you did lock him out today!), you might offer a tie in this situation. We've seen at least one contestant do so this season in the post-Arthur/VT era.
I don't think this is true.

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Re: If you were in second place in a double-lock game...

Post by lieph82 » Sat Oct 25, 2014 3:22 pm

jeff6286 wrote:
lieph82 wrote:
alietr wrote:Has anybody ever looked at the data to see how many times the leader risked a lock? I'm guessing the incidence rate is very, very low, making the expected value of betting it all not worth it.
It wouldn't take the leader risking a lock to make it worthwhile--betting it all is the move here if the leader offers a tie. While offering a tie in a lock game does not improve your probability of winning that game (that's why Keith doesn't suggest it and Arthur never did it), if you believe your opponent is weak and you can easily beat him the next day (a potentially dangerous assumption, but, hey, you did lock him out today!), you might offer a tie in this situation. We've seen at least one contestant do so this season in the post-Arthur/VT era.
I don't think this is true.
You're right. Julia's the last person to do something like this, and hers was an accidental Clavin, not a strategic maneuver. But it's not too hard to imagine- clearly I did.

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