The Official TPH Education Thread (POTENTIAL GAME DAY SPOILERS)

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Re: The Official TPH Education Thread (POTENTIAL GAME DAY SPOILERS)

Post by TenPoundHammer » Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:33 pm

seaborgium wrote:
Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:29 pm
Because it's not hideously obscure every time. Apple says hello.
But I'm expecting hideously obscure. Because a select few have been.

Is there any reason I should expect it not to be?
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Re: The Official TPH Education Thread (POTENTIAL GAME DAY SPOILERS)

Post by seaborgium » Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:34 pm

seaborgium wrote:
Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:29 pm
Because it's not hideously obscure every time. Apple says hello.

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Re: The Official TPH Education Thread (POTENTIAL GAME DAY SPOILERS)

Post by TenPoundHammer » Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:41 pm

seaborgium wrote:
Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:34 pm
seaborgium wrote:
Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:29 pm
Because it's not hideously obscure every time. Apple says hello.
Okay, THIS time it wasn't obscure. How do I know it won't be next time though?
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Re: The Official TPH Education Thread (POTENTIAL GAME DAY SPOILERS)

Post by This Is Kirk! » Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:45 pm

TenPoundHammer wrote:
Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:41 pm
seaborgium wrote:
Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:34 pm
seaborgium wrote:
Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:29 pm
Because it's not hideously obscure every time. Apple says hello.
Okay, THIS time it wasn't obscure. How do I know it won't be next time though?
You should assume it's not hideously obscure because the vast majority of the time it's not. Probabilities, my man. Probabilities.

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Re: The Official TPH Education Thread (POTENTIAL GAME DAY SPOILERS)

Post by TenPoundHammer » Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:53 pm

This Is Kirk! wrote:
Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:45 pm
You should assume it's not hideously obscure because the vast majority of the time it's not. Probabilities, my man. Probabilities.
Okay, then what were the probabilities of it NOT being Apple? I didn't even get as far as it possibly maybe might being a tech company.

Sounds like far too many of the clues, including this one, are absolute guesswork.
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Re: The Official TPH Education Thread (POTENTIAL GAME DAY SPOILERS)

Post by RKane » Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:56 pm

TenPoundHammer wrote:
Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:11 pm
RKane wrote:
Fri Mar 09, 2018 10:58 pm
Well, the guesswork I noted should take about two seconds...i.e., with a few seconds, you should be thinking of tech companies.
Why? What if that doesn't occur to me at all?
It should, though.

I'm not even saying this particular clue, although I would imagine 90%+ of people who watched the episode (i.e., not just those on this board) did, in fact, figure out they were looking for a tech company, and within 3 seconds. I would be surprised if anyone on this board, besides you, didn't get that far.

THAT'S not even the point though. That was one clue, fair enough. But you, for years on end, have been consistently unable to make these simple leaps that should take 3 seconds or fewer.
TenPoundHammer wrote:
Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:11 pm
RKane wrote:
Fri Mar 09, 2018 10:58 pm
And yeah, it might be obscure, and the guesswork might be wrong. Who cares?
So you're saying I might as well just write down "What are zombie butts?" every time?
As opposed to nothing? Why not?
TenPoundHammer wrote:
Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:11 pm
RKane wrote:
Fri Mar 09, 2018 10:58 pm
Well there's 15 steps. Which one is confusing you?
Somewhere around step 6.
Okay, fair enough. The carrying stage.

Can you do this problem:

53 - 28

?

That also involves carrying but it is simpler. If not we can break that down.
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Re: The Official TPH Education Thread (POTENTIAL GAME DAY SPOILERS)

Post by This Is Kirk! » Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:57 pm

TenPoundHammer wrote:
Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:53 pm
This Is Kirk! wrote:
Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:45 pm
You should assume it's not hideously obscure because the vast majority of the time it's not. Probabilities, my man. Probabilities.
Okay, then what were the probabilities of it NOT being Apple? I didn't even get as far as it possibly maybe might being a tech company.

Sounds like far too many of the clues, including this one, are absolute guesswork.
I'm confident the polling will show it was not guesswork. I don't think this was a terribly difficult FJ. A famous company formed by two men in California in 1977 really narrows it down.

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Re: The Official TPH Education Thread (POTENTIAL GAME DAY SPOILERS)

Post by Volante » Sat Mar 10, 2018 12:00 am

TenPoundHammer wrote:
Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:41 pm
seaborgium wrote:
Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:34 pm
seaborgium wrote:
Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:29 pm
Because it's not hideously obscure every time. Apple says hello.
Okay, THIS time it wasn't obscure. How do I know it won't be next time though?
Because statistically it will not be obscure. Even if the an FJ rate is low, the answer itself is rarely obscure, just the trivia. Yes. There's leiderkranz. There's flight simulator. But There are 230 FJs a season. If this problem is as common as you imply, you'd have new material every month rather than parrot ONE FJ THAT HAPPENED NINE BLOODY YEARS AGO!! There have been over 1500 FJs since then!! GAAAAAHHHH!! *searches for that paper bag again*

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Re: The Official TPH Education Thread (POTENTIAL GAME DAY SPOILERS)

Post by seaborgium » Sat Mar 10, 2018 12:04 am

TenPoundHammer wrote:
Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:41 pm
seaborgium wrote:
Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:34 pm
seaborgium wrote:
Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:29 pm
Because it's not hideously obscure every time. Apple says hello.
Okay, THIS time it wasn't obscure. How do I know it won't be next time though?
You don't! But just Occam's razor it, because there have been so many times you guessed nothing or dismissed the correct response because you wrongly assumed the next Liederkranz was thirty seconds away. So what if you give an incorrect response?

Have you heard of Pascal's wager? He basically said that, since the end result of believing in a God that doesn't exist is far better than the end result of not believing in a God that does exist, that you should believe in God. Similarly, believing every FJ will be simple is going to net you more correct responses than believing every FJ is impossible for you. If you take a guess on everything, you'll get the easier ones, and maybe even some hard ones, and the hard ones you miss will be ones you would have missed anyway.

Now, I know how it feels to have absolutely no toehold in the FJ clue, and I'm not expecting you to feel capable of taking a guess every time, but I think at this point you've psyched yourself out too much. You should try to let go of the thought that every FJ is an exercise in futility; perhaps let a week go by without trying at all, and just let the endgame wash over you. Maybe such a break could loosen you up and help you turn things around.

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Re: The Official TPH Education Thread (POTENTIAL GAME DAY SPOILERS)

Post by TenPoundHammer » Sat Mar 10, 2018 12:05 am

Volante wrote:
Sat Mar 10, 2018 12:00 am

Because statistically it will not be obscure. Even if the an FJ rate is low, the answer itself is rarely obscure, just the trivia. Yes. There's leiderkranz. There's flight simulator. But There are 230 FJs a season. If this problem is as common as you imply, you'd have new material every month rather than parrot ONE FJ THAT HAPPENED NINE BLOODY YEARS AGO!! There have been over 1500 FJs since then!! GAAAAAHHHH!! *searches for that paper bag again*
There have been some freakishly obscure ones in between.
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Re: The Official TPH Education Thread (POTENTIAL GAME DAY SPOILERS)

Post by Volante » Sat Mar 10, 2018 12:12 am

TenPoundHammer wrote:
Sat Mar 10, 2018 12:05 am
Volante wrote:
Sat Mar 10, 2018 12:00 am

Because statistically it will not be obscure. Even if the an FJ rate is low, the answer itself is rarely obscure, just the trivia. Yes. There's leiderkranz. There's flight simulator. But There are 230 FJs a season. If this problem is as common as you imply, you'd have new material every month rather than parrot ONE FJ THAT HAPPENED NINE BLOODY YEARS AGO!! There have been over 1500 FJs since then!! GAAAAAHHHH!! *searches for that paper bag again*
There have been some freakishly obscure ones in between.
Yet not obscure enough to enter your rotation as examples. Two points out of a set of 1500 do not a convincing argument make.

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Re: The Official TPH Education Thread (POTENTIAL GAME DAY SPOILERS)

Post by TenPoundHammer » Sat Mar 10, 2018 12:20 am

Volante wrote:
Sat Mar 10, 2018 12:12 am
Yet not obscure enough to enter your rotation as examples. Two points out of a set of 1500 do not a convincing argument make.
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Re: The Official TPH Education Thread (POTENTIAL GAME DAY SPOILERS)

Post by TenPoundHammer » Sat Mar 10, 2018 1:51 am

RKane wrote:
Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:56 pm
=
Can you do this problem:

53 - 28

?

That also involves carrying but it is simpler. If not we can break that down.
No idea.
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Re: The Official TPH Education Thread (POTENTIAL GAME DAY SPOILERS)

Post by RKane » Sat Mar 10, 2018 3:29 am

TenPoundHammer wrote:
Sat Mar 10, 2018 1:51 am
RKane wrote:
Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:56 pm
=
Can you do this problem:

53 - 28

?

That also involves carrying but it is simpler. If not we can break that down.
No idea.
No idea?


Well, here goes:

http://m.uploadedit.com/bbtc/1520673351592.txt

(The external link worked better for formatting than any embedding I tried.)
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Re: The Official TPH Education Thread (POTENTIAL GAME DAY SPOILERS)

Post by 1stlvlthinker » Sat Mar 10, 2018 9:22 am

seaborgium wrote:
Sat Mar 10, 2018 12:04 am
TenPoundHammer wrote:
Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:41 pm
seaborgium wrote:
Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:29 pm
Because it's not hideously obscure every time. Apple says hello.
Okay, THIS time it wasn't obscure. How do I know it won't be next time though?
Have you heard of Pascal's wager? He basically said that, since the end result of believing in a God that doesn't exist is far better than the end result of not believing in a God that does exist, that you should believe in God. Similarly, believing every FJ will be simple is going to net you more correct responses than believing every FJ is impossible for you. If you take a guess on everything, you'll get the easier ones, and maybe even some hard ones, and the hard ones you miss will be ones you would have missed anyway.
This is a great point. There's 2 possibilities here:

1) The answer is really obscure. If that is true, you're not going to get the answer anyways.

2) The answer is not obscure at all. If this is true, you should be able to reason out a educated guess.

Setting aside that 2 is way more common than 1, you only have a shot at 2 anyways, so you might as well assume it's not obscure and take a good guess. Assuming it's totally obscure and giving up will get you 0 questions right each and every time.
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Re: The Official TPH Education Thread (POTENTIAL GAME DAY SPOILERS)

Post by 1stlvlthinker » Sat Mar 10, 2018 9:23 am

TenPoundHammer wrote:
Sat Mar 10, 2018 1:51 am
RKane wrote:
Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:56 pm
=
Can you do this problem:

53 - 28

?

That also involves carrying but it is simpler. If not we can break that down.
No idea.
Are you even trying, or just giving up? If you had to estimate, what would the answer be close to?
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Re: The Official TPH Education Thread (POTENTIAL GAME DAY SPOILERS)

Post by TenPoundHammer » Sat Mar 10, 2018 10:18 am

1stlvlthinker wrote:
Sat Mar 10, 2018 9:22 am
This is a great point. There's 2 possibilities here:

1) The answer is really obscure. If that is true, you're not going to get the answer anyways.

2) The answer is not obscure at all. If this is true, you should be able to reason out a educated guess.

Setting aside that 2 is way more common than 1, you only have a shot at 2 anyways, so you might as well assume it's not obscure and take a good guess. Assuming it's totally obscure and giving up will get you 0 questions right each and every time.
Since 1 HAS happened though, I'm bracing myself for it every time

I still don't see how I was supposed to know it'd even be a tech company.
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Re: The Official TPH Education Thread (POTENTIAL GAME DAY SPOILERS)

Post by RKane » Sat Mar 10, 2018 11:06 am

TenPoundHammer wrote:
Sat Mar 10, 2018 10:18 am
1stlvlthinker wrote:
Sat Mar 10, 2018 9:22 am
This is a great point. There's 2 possibilities here:

1) The answer is really obscure. If that is true, you're not going to get the answer anyways.

2) The answer is not obscure at all. If this is true, you should be able to reason out a educated guess.

Setting aside that 2 is way more common than 1, you only have a shot at 2 anyways, so you might as well assume it's not obscure and take a good guess. Assuming it's totally obscure and giving up will get you 0 questions right each and every time.
Since 1 HAS happened though, I'm bracing myself for it every time

I still don't see how I was supposed to know it'd even be a tech company.
Yes, but did you not read a word 1stlelthinker or seaborgium - who, again, is maybe three correct responses away from being considered an all-time great of this game, so even if you ignore myself and 1stlvl, you should MAYBE, JUST MAYBE, ASSUME THAT THE PERSON WHO WAS IN THE FINAL OF THE TOURNAMENT OF CHAMPIONS KNOWS A LITTLE SOMETHING ABOUT GOOD WAYS TO PLAY THIS GAME AND LISTENING TO WHAT HE SAYS MIGHT MAKE YOU NOT LOOK LIKE SUCH AN IGNORANT BUFFOON EVERY SINGLE DAY FOR YEARS ON END - said?

Yes, 1 has happened. If 1 happens, you are not getting it right anyway. So who cares? Just assume it's 2.

If it is 1, you'll get it wrong, and move on. (You will never be on this show, so this really shouldn't be a concern.) If it is is 2, you'll have a reasonable chance of being right.

On the other hand, you seem to assume it's 1 every time, so you clam up. If it is 1, yeah, you'll be wrong. If it is 2, you will still be wrong.

So you are faced with a choice between a reasonbale chance of being right, and being wrong for sure. If you honestly can't tell why the first choice is better, I don't know what to say.

-

And it's not about Friday's tech company answer specifically. That's one example. No one will suss out the right idea every time. However, no one should fail to, OVER HUNDREDS OF CLUES OF THIS DIFFICULTY, ever once get the correct answer.
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Re: The Official TPH Education Thread (POTENTIAL GAME DAY SPOILERS)

Post by TenPoundHammer » Sat Mar 10, 2018 4:20 pm

Then why have there been so many times this year where I DID try to suss out the wrong answer but still got absolutely nowhere and had no idea how to even whittle it down? Confirmation bias?
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Re: The Official TPH Education Thread (POTENTIAL GAME DAY SPOILERS)

Post by RKane » Sat Mar 10, 2018 4:49 pm

TenPoundHammer wrote:
Sat Mar 10, 2018 4:20 pm
Then why have there been so many times this year where I DID try to suss out the wrong answer but still got absolutely nowhere and had no idea how to even whittle it down? Confirmation bias?
I don't know.

But on Tuesday (the Animal Farm clue) you said you were close, you described a sussing, and said with another minute or two you would have got it. That's a step in the right direction.

By the way did you read the document I made last night? (http://m.uploadedit.com/bbtc/1520673351592.txt) I was out drinking last night for most of the responses I sent you but when I got home I couldn't sleep so I made that detailed document.
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