Final day FJ wagering suggestions

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Vermonter
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Re: Final day FJ wagering suggestions

Post by Vermonter » Sat Nov 30, 2013 10:35 am

Just came across this thread, and panicked that I had overwagered! (Better that than too little, right?) But I'm pretty sure my 11,801 was the minimum.
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Re: Final day FJ wagering suggestions

Post by seaborgium » Sat Nov 30, 2013 2:05 pm

I added up Grant's numbers wrong, managing to sum $15,200 and $20,200 to $35,200. Hence, my suggestion for you was $200 off. To my chagrin, that's not the first time a math error in this thread has made a boardie's wager seem wrong.

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Re: Final day FJ wagering suggestions

Post by Vermonter » Sun Dec 01, 2013 3:50 pm

That's ok, this thread is a huge service! Thanks for putting it together.
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Re: Final day FJ wagering suggestions

Post by GoodStrategy » Fri Nov 14, 2014 8:50 pm

I thought I'd post about a term I coined to apply to multi-day wagering ("Lead-Split") when I sent an email reply to Robert KS. Here is a copy-and-paste of what I wrote:

"Lead-Split" is my term to describe a two-day match where one player has the cumulative lead (i.e. would win if both bet zero) but another has the maximum possible total (i.e. would be able to cover and guarantee a win with a correct response). The Battle of the Decades final is a perfect example (Brad Rutter had the cumulative lead and was right to bet zero, but Ken Jennings could achieve the higher total and was right to bet to cover). Other examples I can think of right away were the 2008 College final (Danielle Zsenak had the higher CT, Joey Beachum the higher MPT) and the 2003 ToC final (Mark Dawson had the higher CT, Brian Weikle the higher MPT). The last Teen final was right on the breakpoint (both Alan Koolik and Jeff Xie had the same MPT, but the former had the higher CT), and the 1993 ToC had a CT-tie. I can't think of any examples right away of real-life lead splits between 2nd and 3rd (Added in separate from the email text: I did create one in a "wagering puzzle" from a few months ago). Another interesting point is that in a lead-split game the cover bet from the maximum possible total leader will take him/her below the cumulative leader's first-day total, giving the coverer no chance of winning if wrong (but since the cumulative leader can bet zero making it impossible for the MPT leader to win without being right there is probably no feasible alternative to the cover bet).

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Re: Final day FJ wagering suggestions

Post by dhkendall » Sat Nov 15, 2014 2:43 am

GoodStrategy wrote:I thought I'd post about a term I coined to apply to multi-day wagering ("Lead-Split") when I sent an email reply to Robert KS. Here is a copy-and-paste of what I wrote:
Problem with coining a term is that if it doesn't catch on, it'd be out of place in a lexionary like the J! Archive glossary. I hope it catches on since it's obviously a situation that hasn't had a term yet, but we'll see.
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Re: Final day FJ wagering suggestions

Post by seaborgium » Sat Nov 15, 2014 2:53 am

I like to refer to the advantage in those situations as the "lead from behind," or else I simply call it "the advantage" (which is the term I prefer to use instead of "the lead" in two-day situations, since the lead doesn't always have the advantage).

I think the term "lead-split" makes it sound merely like a different person is leading the second day, when it's more complex than that (if player A leads player B by x at the end of day 1, B must lead A by more than x/2 and less than x entering the second day's FJ to have the advantage without the lead).

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Re: Final day FJ wagering suggestions

Post by Robert K S » Sat Nov 15, 2014 8:39 am

As well, a player can have the advantage without leading either day.

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Re: Final day FJ wagering suggestions

Post by GoodStrategy » Fri Nov 21, 2014 10:06 pm

Robert K S wrote:As well, a player can have the advantage without leading either day.
In such a case different opponents will always have the individual game's lead. In other words, it's not possible for A to win the tournament if B led both days, but if B led one day and C the other it is.

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Re: Final day FJ wagering suggestions

Post by Robert K S » Fri Nov 21, 2014 11:17 pm

GoodStrategy wrote:In such a case different opponents will always have the individual game's lead. In other words, it's not possible for A to win the tournament if B led both days, but if B led one day and C the other it is.
I think I get what you mean, but I'm not sure if the way you said it is technically right. Taking "leading" to mean post-FJ the first day and pre-FJ the second day, it's still possible for A to win if B led both days. It's just not possible for A to do so if B has bet to cover and gets Final right.

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Re: Final day FJ wagering suggestions

Post by GoodStrategy » Sat Nov 22, 2014 8:06 am

Robert K S wrote:
GoodStrategy wrote:In such a case different opponents will always have the individual game's lead. In other words, it's not possible for A to win the tournament if B led both days, but if B led one day and C the other it is.
I think I get what you mean, but I'm not sure if the way you said it is technically right. Taking "leading" to mean post-FJ the first day and pre-FJ the second day, it's still possible for A to win if B led both days. It's just not possible for A to do so if B has bet to cover and gets Final right.
I meant pre-second-day-FJ! (sorry for the misphrasing).

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Re: Final day FJ wagering suggestions

Post by GoodStrategy » Sun Nov 01, 2015 9:36 pm

I think you might have the minimum guarantees for the 1987 Teen and Seniors Tournaments wrong - in the video for the latter I recall Alex telling Irene that she'd get $5,000 (and not $7,500) anyway. Therefore it appears that the $7,500/$10,000 guarantees were first implemented in the ToC that fall, and in the aforementioned two tournaments they simply continued to apply the precedent set from the 1986 ToC where runners-up in the finals who finished with less than $5,000 got the money they would've had if they had been eliminated in the semifinals (but no more). (I've also suggested this as a correction to the J! Archive.)

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Re: College Championship final wagering suggestions

Post by seaborgium » Sun Feb 14, 2016 12:05 am

This seems as good a place as any to post these various "third place" observations with regard to multi-day wagering.

Finals where the player who finished the penultimate game in third ended up winning:

1987 ToC:
Bob Verini: $3,800 + $11,000 + $1,201 = $16,001
Dave Traini: $7,600 + $4,200 + $4,200 = $16,000
Eugene Finerman: $6,800 + $2,400 + $2,400 = $11,600

1988 ToC:
Mark Lowenthal: $5,000 + $10,900 + $8,101 = $24,001
Bruce Naegeli: $12,800 + $5,600 + $399 = $18,799
Sandra Gore: $13,000 + $5,000 - $5,000 = $13,000

1992 College Championship:
Billy Baxter: $9,800 + $8,300 + $8,100 = $26,200
Stephanie Leveene: $11,900 + $9,900 - $5,000 = $16,800
Nick Jungman: $10,000 + $3,400 + $3,400 = $16,800

1995 College Championship:
Ben Lyon: $5,500 + $9,500 + $2,000 = $17,000
Rebekah Reeves: $6,000 + $5,500 + $2,300 = $13,800
Steve Smith: $8,000 + $2,200 + $2,000 = $12,200

1999 ToC:
Dave Abbott: $7,100 + $7,200 + $7,200 = $21,500
J.J. Todor: $9,000 + $5,800 + $5,800 = $20,600
Juliet Wiley: $7,400 + $4,100 - $4,000 = $7,500

2006 Teen Tournament:
Papa Chakravarthy: $4,000 + $23,000 + $1,601 = $28,601
Andrew Kreitz: $6,500 + $4,600 + $4,599 + $15,699
Matt Klein: $11,800 + $8,400 - $8,400 = $11,800

2007-B Teen Tournament (Teen Tournament Summer Games):
Meryl Federman: $0 + $22,000 + $16,601 = $38,601
Greg Peterson: $25,000 + $6,800 + $6,800 = $38,600
Kyle Neblett: $18,000 + $9,200 + $9,200 = $36,400

2013 Teen Tournament:
Leonard Cooper: $3,000 + $37,000 - $0 = $40,000
Barrett Block: $17,600 + $9,000 + $9,000 = $35,600
Nilai Sarda: $19,000 + $14,400 - $7,000 = $26,400

2013 College Championship:
Jim Coury: $8,600 + $14,200 + $11,789 = $34,589
Trevor Walker: $11,000 + $8,200 - $3,601 = $15,599
Kristen Jolley: $10,000 + $8,600 - $4,199 = $14,401

That's nine out of over a hundred multi-day tournament finals (with or without the UToC semis and the Watson match), and I wouldn't call most of them a "distant third."


Six people have won a multi-day situation in the latter FJ from third place (which is to say having the lowest maximum possible score of the competitors; they didn't all have the lowest cumulative score entering FJ):

Frank Spangenberg, 10th Anniversary Tournament (needed sole get and overwager by Tom Nosek, got both)
Bernard Holloway, 2002 Teen Tournament (could win in a triple stumper, got one, overwagered by $1,600, but second place overwagered by more)
John Zhang in the 2003 Teen Tournament (in a third that normally only has a chance for second, but first place bet $20,000 when he need only have bet $200, and John maxed out his score on a sole get)
Jerome Vered in the UToC semifinals (had a strong enough first game that he just needed his competitors to miss FJ at the end of game 2 regardless of how he did or what he wagered; he had a sole get and a $0 wager)
Raynell Cooper in the 2011 Teen Tournament (could win on a sole get or a triple stumper, wagered everything and took the TS win off the table; he and second place got FJ right, but second didn't wager to cover)
Patrick Quinn in the 2012-A Teachers' Tournament (could win on a sole get or a triple stumper, wagered almost everything and took the TS win off the table; had a sole get)


Victories in the final day from people in third place for that day only:
Zeke Sevilla, Jr., 1987 Seniors Tournament (actually in first)
Jim Scott, 1991 ToC (actually in second)
Leonard Schmidt, 1992 Seniors Tournament (actually in second)
Tom Nosek, 1993 ToC (actually in second)
Sahir Islam, 1997-A Teen Tournament (actually in second)
Bernard Holloway, 2002 Teen Tournament
John Zhang, 2003 Teen Tournament
Jerome Vered, UToC semifinals
Vijay Balse, 2010 ToC (actually in second)
Raynell Cooper, 2011 Teen Tournament
Patrick Quinn, 2012-A Teachers' Tournament
Ben Ingram, 2014 ToC (actually in first)

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