LL65 (For the LLamas amongst us)
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- BigDaddyMatty
- Hoping not to get pruney this time
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Re: LL65 (For the LLamas amongst us)
The luck o' the draw was not with me in my first season in C Horizon. My CAA was 97; the next-highest in the rundle was 91.
Sprinkles are for winners.
- jeff6286
- Watches Jeopardy! Way Too Much
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Re: LL65 (For the LLamas amongst us)
I would've probably topped you if all of my opponents had bothered to show up. I had 87 CAA plus 3 forfeit wins. I had a terrible stretch the last couple weeks of the season, with seemingly every opponent getting 4 or 5 against me. The forfeits were the only things breaking up my long winless streak.BigDaddyMatty wrote:The luck o' the draw was not with me in my first season in C Horizon. My CAA was 97; the next-highest in the rundle was 91.
Last edited by jeff6286 on Tue Jun 23, 2015 12:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Re: LL65 (For the LLamas amongst us)
Hey. Really annoyed at myself for only discovering this thread at the very end of the season. And for the dumb reason (I know better than to play games like Think Different, as down that rabbit hole (for me) lies madness, unemployment, etc. Saw something else with two capital letters and a number before I every joined LL, assumed it was all one and the same, never paid attention to it again.)
I expect this will make the butt-kicking I get next season all the more fun. Especially since so many other APac folks are here.
I expect this will make the butt-kicking I get next season all the more fun. Especially since so many other APac folks are here.
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Re: LL65 (For the LLamas amongst us)
UniquePerspective's Career in D Rundle: 2014-2015
I have no idea what happened with me, but I just couldn't get it together this season. Were they especially harder, or did I just suck more? I'm not sure. And my one game I got 4 right, tjconn nipped me with 5. Ah well. E Rundle, I'm coming home. Hopefully I can win my way back.
I have no idea what happened with me, but I just couldn't get it together this season. Were they especially harder, or did I just suck more? I'm not sure. And my one game I got 4 right, tjconn nipped me with 5. Ah well. E Rundle, I'm coming home. Hopefully I can win my way back.
Re: LL65 (For the LLamas amongst us)
It doesn't help that the overall winner of the Sandra Trophy is in Pacific.Woof wrote: A .838 DE, a career best for me, was only good enough for runner-up in Pacific, and it wasn't even close (winner had a sick DE of .890). At 11 UfPA for the season, I fully expect never to do better.
My defense slipped a lot in the last few days. For most of the season, I had the second-highest DE in Pacific and, for some time, even third-highest overall. In the end, 7th in Pacific, and dropped off the overall list.
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Re: LL65 (For the LLamas amongst us)
Yeah, you ran into me at the wrong time. After Day 21, I was in 12th place with an MPD of +7. But I went 20/24 with 30 points (including my second ever 9(6)) over the last four days to finish in 5th with an MPD of +24. I'm hoping I somehow got better at LL as the season progressed, but I think I just hit a lucky streak, including a wild guess of Scheherazade against you. Still not quite good enough for promotion though, so hopefully we'll see you back in DHor1 soon!UniquePerspective wrote:UniquePerspective's Career in D Rundle: 2014-2015
I have no idea what happened with me, but I just couldn't get it together this season. Were they especially harder, or did I just suck more? I'm not sure. And my one game I got 4 right, tjconn nipped me with 5. Ah well. E Rundle, I'm coming home. Hopefully I can win my way back.
Re: LL65 (For the LLamas amongst us)
boson wrote: There is something wrong with the defensive efficiency statistic though. It is a lot easier to have such amazing defensive numbers when the rundle's correct answer rate is .776 (like Horizon A was this season) vs. .500 in a D-like rundle. Defense is less relevant if you are facing near-perfect offense. Do any of the extended statistics better capture how defense depends on how often your opponents answer correctly?
TheyCallMeMrKid wrote:boson, I made a similar point a week or two ago. I looked at the DE standings and saw that everyone at the top of Horizon was in either an A or an E rundle, i.e. the ends of the bell curve are probably, just because fewer opportunities for mistakes, a little easier to defend.
I think MrKid and jfrumkin make good points about defense being easier at the extremes of the distribution. Something like, in A, you just need to identify the toughest question, and in E, the easiest one or two. It doesn't matter much how you assign your zeroes and ones in A, or how you assign twos and threes in E. But the question is, how much of this is uneven difficulty of defense itself, and how much a shortcoming of the DE statistic. Those are separate questions, and the ways to fix any problems would be different.jfrumkin wrote:No doubt this is true. It's probably some function of correct answers against and unforced points against. The DE stat is ([number of potential unforced points against] - [unforced points against])/[number of potential unforced points against]. The lower the CAA, the higher the potential for unforced points. (((CAA/25)*9) - UfPA)/((CAA/25)*9)? Something like that. So the lower the CAA, the more impressive the DE becomes. There's probably some other end of the curve though -- the DE numbers are fairly high in E, too, seemingly -- where people get relatively few enough answers where it's easier to pinpoint which are the easiest answers to get. So maybe it has less to do with get rate and more to do with the spread of knowledge (or get rate or whatever the correct term would be) between people in the rundle. All conjecture, I'm not basing this off of any deeper analysis of DE by rundle to see if A and E are actually the better DEs and then if that means it is somewhat of a normal distribution with the mean DE centering on another rundle.
One thing I can bet a lot of money on, this has nothing to do with a normal distribution. It probably does have a lot to do with the specific way defense points are assigned. And there are offsetting factors. In Rundle A, the number of potential unforced points (the denominator) is small, but not proportionally as much smaller as the number of wrong answers. If your opponents tend to get 5 answers right, that leaves 3 potential unforced points, but if they tend to get 4 right, it leaves 4 (=3+2-1, the 1 is "forced"). In the second case, there are 2 times as many incorrect answers, but only 4/3 as many potential unforced points. So I am not sure that tough competition helpd with DE; intuitively, it seems to bias DE down (by keeping the denominator relatively high).
OTOH, in low rundles, when you go from an average of 3 correct to 2, the potential unforced points actually decrease from 5 (=3+2+2-1-1) to 4 (=3+2+2+1-1-1-2). Now the low denominator (intuitively, though intuition is not necessarily correct) boosts the ratio, i.e., the DE.
So perhaps DE is high in E rundles because the formula is biased, but in the A rundles because the players are more sophisticated???
Re: LL65 (For the LLamas amongst us)
My combinatorial instinct leads me to the following alternative measure of defensive quality:
Define
N = number of possible ways to assign defensive points = B + E + W, where
B = number of ways that would result in lower points allowed than in the match ("better")
W = number of ways that would result in higher points allowed than in the match ("worse")
E = number of ways that would result in the same number of points allowed as in the match ("equal")
Then the Gnash Defensive Equilibrium equals
GDE = (W + 0.5*E)/N
Define
N = number of possible ways to assign defensive points = B + E + W, where
B = number of ways that would result in lower points allowed than in the match ("better")
W = number of ways that would result in higher points allowed than in the match ("worse")
E = number of ways that would result in the same number of points allowed as in the match ("equal")
Then the Gnash Defensive Equilibrium equals
GDE = (W + 0.5*E)/N
Re: LL65 (For the LLamas amongst us)
N is always 180 ( = 6 x 5 x (4 choose 2) ) if I am not tired, drunk, or senile.gnash wrote:My combinatorial instinct leads me to the following alternative measure of defensive quality:
Define
N = number of possible ways to assign defensive points = B + E + W, where
B = number of ways that would result in lower points allowed than in the match ("better")
W = number of ways that would result in higher points allowed than in the match ("worse")
E = number of ways that would result in the same number of points allowed as in the match ("equal")
Then the Gnash Defensive Equilibrium equals
GDE = (W + 0.5*E)/N
- jeff6286
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Re: LL65 (For the LLamas amongst us)
OK I have to ask about this. A wild guess of Scheherazade? So of all the legendary Persian storytellers you knew, you decide to just throw out Scheherazade and see if it worked? I'm not quite sure how anyone would have access to the name Scheherazade to answer for a question like this, and not know that it was obviously the correct answer. "Hmm, storyteller, you say? Should I maybe say Scheherazade? Or maybe it's Maude? Who to guess, Who to guess..."tjconn728 wrote:Yeah, you ran into me at the wrong time. After Day 21, I was in 12th place with an MPD of +7. But I went 20/24 with 30 points (including my second ever 9(6)) over the last four days to finish in 5th with an MPD of +24. I'm hoping I somehow got better at LL as the season progressed, but I think I just hit a lucky streak, including a wild guess of Scheherazade against you. Still not quite good enough for promotion though, so hopefully we'll see you back in DHor1 soon!UniquePerspective wrote:UniquePerspective's Career in D Rundle: 2014-2015
I have no idea what happened with me, but I just couldn't get it together this season. Were they especially harder, or did I just suck more? I'm not sure. And my one game I got 4 right, tjconn nipped me with 5. Ah well. E Rundle, I'm coming home. Hopefully I can win my way back.
Re: LL65 (For the LLamas amongst us)
Son, tired, drunk and senile is no way to go through life ignash wrote:N is always 180 ( = 6 x 5 x (4 choose 2) ) if I am not tired, drunk, or senile.gnash wrote:My combinatorial instinct leads me to the following alternative measure of defensive quality:
Define
N = number of possible ways to assign defensive points = B + E + W, where
B = number of ways that would result in lower points allowed than in the match ("better")
W = number of ways that would result in higher points allowed than in the match ("worse")
E = number of ways that would result in the same number of points allowed as in the match ("equal")
Then the Gnash Defensive Equilibrium equals
GDE = (W + 0.5*E)/N
Re: LL65 (For the LLamas amongst us)
I didn't finish, but this was a totally pathetic season for me. Even counting the days I didn't try to answer anything, I still only got 35 right. (And yes, for now, I'm happier playing on the sideline and trying the questions the day after because I took LL way too seriously when actually playing.) If I decide to return in the future, I will probably want the last thirteen matches (which consisted of submitting blanks and 0-1-1-2-2-3 defense) erased from my question history, though I doubt it will be possible. I also don't think playing the forfeit and trying to answer the blank days would have affected my place in the standings, and I doubt my DE would have been that much higher.
I might want to keep my LL membership so I can retain access to the statistical database, occasionally post on the message boards, and participate in some 1DSes, but I'm not sure it's worth it.
I might want to keep my LL membership so I can retain access to the statistical database, occasionally post on the message boards, and participate in some 1DSes, but I'm not sure it's worth it.
Re: LL65 (For the LLamas amongst us)
Thanks to everyone who voted for the Sandra! If I was going to lose as many as I did this season, I'm happy I came away with something.
Twitter: @jfrumkin
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Re: LL65 (For the LLamas amongst us)
Haha, fair enough question. I had heard of 1001 Nights before, but didn't know anything about it other than Aladdin and Ali Baba. I thought that I had heard of its "author" at some point though, so I pondered it for a while, and eventually the name Scheherazade, or more accurately, Scherzade, popped into my head. I couldn't think of anything better (for now obvious reasons), but I really didn't think I was right. If you had asked me the day before who Scheherazade was, I probably would have said something along the lines of the wife of Xerxes or someone from the Old Testament. In retrospect, it probably subconsciously sunk in from having heard "Friend Like Me" enough times.jeff6286 wrote:OK I have to ask about this. A wild guess of Scheherazade? So of all the legendary Persian storytellers you knew, you decide to just throw out Scheherazade and see if it worked? I'm not quite sure how anyone would have access to the name Scheherazade to answer for a question like this, and not know that it was obviously the correct answer. "Hmm, storyteller, you say? Should I maybe say Scheherazade? Or maybe it's Maude? Who to guess, Who to guess..."tjconn728 wrote:Yeah, you ran into me at the wrong time. After Day 21, I was in 12th place with an MPD of +7. But I went 20/24 with 30 points (including my second ever 9(6)) over the last four days to finish in 5th with an MPD of +24. I'm hoping I somehow got better at LL as the season progressed, but I think I just hit a lucky streak, including a wild guess of Scheherazade against you. Still not quite good enough for promotion though, so hopefully we'll see you back in DHor1 soon!UniquePerspective wrote:UniquePerspective's Career in D Rundle: 2014-2015
I have no idea what happened with me, but I just couldn't get it together this season. Were they especially harder, or did I just suck more? I'm not sure. And my one game I got 4 right, tjconn nipped me with 5. Ah well. E Rundle, I'm coming home. Hopefully I can win my way back.
Re: LL65 (For the LLamas amongst us)
Well, so much for that. Hope others here are going to be in Alpine.gobobbygo wrote:Hey. Really annoyed at myself for only discovering this thread at the very end of the season. And for the dumb reason (I know better than to play games like Think Different, as down that rabbit hole (for me) lies madness, unemployment, etc. Saw something else with two capital letters and a number before I every joined LL, assumed it was all one and the same, never paid attention to it again.)
I expect this will make the butt-kicking I get next season all the more fun. Especially since so many other APac folks are here.