Friday, May 22, 2015 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

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Re: Friday, May 22, 2015 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by dirkgonnadirk » Sun May 24, 2015 3:28 am

willwoodlen wrote:But I can't ignore the very important fact that she would have gone into FJ within reach of Choyon if she had gotten the DD right, even though so many commentators are ignoring it. Whatever motivated her wager, it was not merely the lame-brained move some are making it out to be.
you should ignore it because you are being results oriented based on what came after it. however, if you insist on looking at it like that: what actually happened was that on the next 4 clues, the guy who had thus far answered half the clues on the episode (approximately, i don't have the numbers to hand), failed to answer any, whilst she got 1. that's a rather unlikely occurrence, and even in that situation, the best you can say is 'she would have been in contention if she got it right'. ok, sure, but she also would have been in much better shape if she had wagered everything and got it right.

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Re: Friday, May 22, 2015 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by Steppenwolf » Sun May 24, 2015 3:39 am

Vermonter wrote:Melissa's FJ wager showed she was unprepared on wagering strategy. I disagree with the logic presented for the $400 wager; the remaining big clues were in the same category as the mid-level DD clue, and hence probably more difficult. You have to get one right anyway, so you might as well make it the easiest clue for a huge payday.
But in defense of willwoodlen's position, isn't it significant that she MUST answer the daily double question, determining the value of it sight-unseen, while she has the OPTION of buzzing in on the remaining more difficult questions after she has seen them? You have to get one right anyway, but perhaps your odds are better on one that you've already seen the question.

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Re: Friday, May 22, 2015 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by 9021amyers » Sun May 24, 2015 8:52 am

dirkgonnadirk wrote:
willwoodlen wrote:But I can't ignore the very important fact that she would have gone into FJ within reach of Choyon if she had gotten the DD right, even though so many commentators are ignoring it. Whatever motivated her wager, it was not merely the lame-brained move some are making it out to be.
you should ignore it because you are being results oriented based on what came after it. however, if you insist on looking at it like that: what actually happened was that on the next 4 clues, the guy who had thus far answered half the clues on the episode (approximately, i don't have the numbers to hand), failed to answer any, whilst she got 1. that's a rather unlikely occurrence, and even in that situation, the best you can say is 'she would have been in contention if she got it right'. ok, sure, but she also would have been in much better shape if she had wagered everything and got it right.
More importantly, Choyon was in a lock position, and was not going to risk a $3200 or $4000 swing by responding incorrectly on the remaining high-value clues that would put Melissa back in the game.

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Re: Friday, May 22, 2015 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by Golf » Sun May 24, 2015 11:24 am

willwoodlen wrote:I get what critics of Melissa's DD wager are saying. I really do!! And I've distinctly honored the distinct possibility, even likelihood, that her wager was based on fear or thought-paralysis rather than on calculation or strategy. But I can't ignore the very important fact that she would have gone into FJ within reach of Choyon if she had gotten the DD right, even though so many commentators are ignoring it. Whatever motivated her wager, it was not merely the lame-brained move some are making it out to be.
As already said, don't be results oriented. That just weakens your position.

Calculate the odds of her winning the game based on what she wagered. Gotta calculate the odds of her answering the DD, then the odds of her actually getting within half the leader's score. If she does that, then calculate the odds of the leader missing FJ while she gets it.

However, if she wagers everything, just calculate the odds of her answering the DD correctly, then the odds of the leader missing FJ. That's all that route would take. I think she also would have had an outside chance of actually taking the lead which changes a lot.


But when it's all said and done, she almost certainly had no idea what to wager because she hadn't studied anything about wagering theory. And it showed.

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Re: Friday, May 22, 2015 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by willwoodlen » Sun May 24, 2015 11:43 pm

Golf wrote:
willwoodlen wrote:I get what critics of Melissa's DD wager are saying. I really do!! And I've distinctly honored the distinct possibility, even likelihood, that her wager was based on fear or thought-paralysis rather than on calculation or strategy. But I can't ignore the very important fact that she would have gone into FJ within reach of Choyon if she had gotten the DD right, even though so many commentators are ignoring it. Whatever motivated her wager, it was not merely the lame-brained move some are making it out to be.
As already said, don't be results oriented. That just weakens your position.

Calculate the odds of her winning the game based on what she wagered. Gotta calculate the odds of her answering the DD, then the odds of her actually getting within half the leader's score. If she does that, then calculate the odds of the leader missing FJ while she gets it.

However, if she wagers everything, just calculate the odds of her answering the DD correctly, then the odds of the leader missing FJ. That's all that route would take. I think she also would have had an outside chance of actually taking the lead which changes a lot.


But when it's all said and done, she almost certainly had no idea what to wager because she hadn't studied anything about wagering theory. And it showed.

The odds you cite change if one is faced with a category in which she is weak. Melissa showed awareness of the geography involved in the clue but little historical knowledge, and this was a history category. I don't know that her awareness of this weakness affected her wager, but it might have. I might be results-oriented in my thinking but not merely results-oriented. I simply cite the (potential) results as additional support for possibly giving Melissa a break.

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Re: Friday, May 22, 2015 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by BigDaddyMatty » Mon May 25, 2015 1:39 am

willwoodlen wrote:But I can't ignore the very important fact that she would have gone into FJ within reach of Choyon if she had gotten the DD right, even though so many commentators are ignoring it. Whatever motivated her wager, it was not merely the lame-brained move some are making it out to be.
You're actually arguing against your position here. By pointing out that Melissa would have been in the game had she just gotten the DD right, you underscore the fact that her odds of getting past 50% of Choyon's total without a correct DD response were slim. In other words, she pretty much had to respond correctly to have a chance. As Vermonter points out with some regularity, if one must respond correctly to have a chance, she should bet the farm. That maximizes upside while not materially affecting the downside.
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Re: Friday, May 22, 2015 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by goatman » Mon May 25, 2015 10:22 pm

TenPoundHammer wrote:...

I thought FJ! was way too wide open to even take a guess on.
1926 =/= 'wide open' it's extremely limited in fact. Beatrix Potter published Peter Rabbit in 1902, E.B. White's Stuart Little was 1945 and Charlotte's Web 1952 (Nellie, Aranea & Joy appear in CW II, FJ!); Wind in the Willows by Kenneth Grahame was also 1908, way too early; Charlie and the Chocolate Factory came in 1964 and really doesn't fit, unless Oompahs are loveable. Knowing AA Milne published Pooh in 1926 made it instaget. Geisel's first Pub was 1936, And to Think That I Saw it on Mulberry Street, and most of his well-known stuff is even later in 1950's.

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Re: Friday, May 22, 2015 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by willwoodlen » Mon May 25, 2015 10:55 pm

BigDaddyMatty wrote:
willwoodlen wrote:But I can't ignore the very important fact that she would have gone into FJ within reach of Choyon if she had gotten the DD right, even though so many commentators are ignoring it. Whatever motivated her wager, it was not merely the lame-brained move some are making it out to be.
You're actually arguing against your position here. By pointing out that Melissa would have been in the game had she just gotten the DD right, you underscore the fact that her odds of getting past 50% of Choyon's total without a correct DD response were slim. In other words, she pretty much had to respond correctly to have a chance. As Vermonter points out with some regularity, if one must respond correctly to have a chance, she should bet the farm. That maximizes upside while not materially affecting the downside.

I'm not arguing against my position, because all my comments have acknowledged that Melissa's position was iffy at best. I agree that she "pretty much" had to respond correctly, but "pretty much" leaves room for at least a small possibility that an incorrect response could still keep her within reach, depending, of course, on what happened with the remaining clues. I've also acknowledged that she might very well have been planning none of this, but was instead wagering out of panic. All I've been contending is that the slamming she's received is based on the belief that there's only one right way to handle a DD. I reject that belief.

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Re: Friday, May 22, 2015 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by Golf » Mon May 25, 2015 11:03 pm

willwoodlen wrote:All I've been contending is that the slamming she's received is based on the belief that there's only one right way to handle a DD. I reject that belief.
You take the game situation and approximate the chances of answering the DD correctly. With this information one can determine the best wager. In other words, the only one right way. It's not rocket science.

And since I'm sure you'll want to disagree more, in her situation the only two valid wagers (dependent on category confidence) were everything or $5, nothing in between. So yeah, her wager will continue to be rightfully slammed.

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Re: Friday, May 22, 2015 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by brick » Tue May 26, 2015 2:12 pm

TenPoundHammer wrote:
WLT New York on Green Books for $400?
I've been stalking the J-Archive since Saturday, hoping to get the title of the book from the clue mentioned above. I'm not sure what's going on over there, but the Jeopardy round from Friday is posted, and both rounds of yesterday's game are up, too, but not Friday's Double-J. So I am a noob, throwing myself on your mercy. Any help?

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Re: Friday, May 22, 2015 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by econgator » Tue May 26, 2015 2:59 pm

brick wrote:
TenPoundHammer wrote:
WLT New York on Green Books for $400?
I've been stalking the J-Archive since Saturday, hoping to get the title of the book from the clue mentioned above. I'm not sure what's going on over there, but the Jeopardy round from Friday is posted, and both rounds of yesterday's game are up, too, but not Friday's Double-J. So I am a noob, throwing myself on your mercy. Any help?
Simple answer: they Archivists are all volunteers, so they enter rounds when and if they have the time.

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Re: Friday, May 22, 2015 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by Robert K S » Tue May 26, 2015 3:04 pm

econgator wrote:Simple answer: they Archivists are all volunteers, so they enter rounds when and if they have the time.
More elaborate answer: it was a holiday weekend, so even the people that proof or enter games when they aren't entered timely haven't been able to get to it yet... :-)

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Re: Friday, May 22, 2015 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by brick » Tue May 26, 2015 3:09 pm

econgator wrote:
brick wrote:
TenPoundHammer wrote:
WLT New York on Green Books for $400?
I've been stalking the J-Archive since Saturday, hoping to get the title of the book from the clue mentioned above. I'm not sure what's going on over there, but the Jeopardy round from Friday is posted, and both rounds of yesterday's game are up, too, but not Friday's Double-J. So I am a noob, throwing myself on your mercy. Any help?
Simple answer: they Archivists are all volunteers, so they enter rounds when and if they have the time.
Oh, please don't think I am complaining. I totally get that it happens when it happens, and this is something that people do in their own time. I just thought maybe someone would remember the name of the darn book and I could stop haunting the archives.

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Re: Friday, May 22, 2015 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by brick » Tue May 26, 2015 3:10 pm

Robert K S wrote:
econgator wrote:Simple answer: they Archivists are all volunteers, so they enter rounds when and if they have the time.
More elaborate answer: it was a holiday weekend, so even the people that proof or enter games when they aren't entered timely haven't been able to get to it yet... :-)
ibid ;)

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Re: Friday, May 22, 2015 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by jeff6286 » Tue May 26, 2015 3:11 pm

Robert K S wrote:
econgator wrote:Simple answer: they Archivists are all volunteers, so they enter rounds when and if they have the time.
More elaborate answer: it was a holiday weekend, so even the people that proof or enter games when they aren't entered timely haven't been able to get to it yet... :-)
If it's a Friday game, (or even if it isn't), I usually just blame Kendall.

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Re: Friday, May 22, 2015 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by brick » Tue May 26, 2015 3:16 pm

jeff6286 wrote:
Robert K S wrote:
econgator wrote:Simple answer: they Archivists are all volunteers, so they enter rounds when and if they have the time.
More elaborate answer: it was a holiday weekend, so even the people that proof or enter games when they aren't entered timely haven't been able to get to it yet... :-)
If it's a Friday game, (or even if it isn't), I usually just blame Kendall.

It's my first day. I think I will just sit quietly in the corner while you do that.

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Re: Friday, May 22, 2015 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by opusthepenguin » Tue May 26, 2015 3:31 pm

brick wrote:Oh, please don't think I am complaining. I totally get that it happens when it happens, and this is something that people do in their own time.
Well said. Think of the gently peevish replies as being directed at your predecessors who didn't totally get that. Their ill manners have made our hardworking archivists suspicious of passersby. I'm not an archivist, but I admit my own first thought was to tell you that you needed to subscribe to the pay site to avoid these delays. :evil:

But because your above reply indicates some cluefulness, here you go:

GREEN BOOKS for $400

A NATURE TRAIL IN VAN CORTLANDT PARK IS NAMED FOR JOHN KIERAN, AUTHOR OF "A NATURAL HISTORY OF" THIS METROPOLIS.


[EDITED TO ADD]: In response to TPH's query, not a lot leads to New York. There's the Dutch-sounding name of the park. There's a bias toward US cites as the default when the clue/category doesn't specify otherwise. And there's a bias toward New York as being the most likely city to be referred to as a "metropolis". I wouldn't have rung in on the clue. But had it been a DD, I'd have responded with New York as the most likely candidate.
Last edited by opusthepenguin on Tue May 26, 2015 3:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Friday, May 22, 2015 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by opusthepenguin » Tue May 26, 2015 3:33 pm

brick wrote:
jeff6286 wrote:If it's a Friday game, (or even if it isn't), I usually just blame Kendall.
It's my first day. I think I will just sit quietly in the corner while you do that.
No, no. It's ok. He's Canadian.

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Re: Friday, May 22, 2015 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by brick » Tue May 26, 2015 3:43 pm

opusthepenguin wrote:
brick wrote:Oh, please don't think I am complaining. I totally get that it happens when it happens, and this is something that people do in their own time.
Well said. Think of the gently peevish replies as being directed at your predecessors who didn't totally get that. Their ill manners have made our hardworking archivists suspicious of passersby. I'm not an archivist, but I admit my own first thought was to tell you that you needed to subscribe to the pay site to avoid these delays. :evil:

But because your above reply indicates some cluefulness, here you go:

GREEN BOOKS for $400

A NATURE TRAIL IN VAN CORTLANDT PARK IS NAMED FOR JOHN KIERAN, AUTHOR OF "A NATURAL HISTORY OF" THIS METROPOLIS.
Why thank you! And I certainly am glad that I have managed not to come off as that person who comes in and starts demanding a whole board they just joined be my Google Monkey. Ugh. Those guys. If anything I was irritated with myself that I couldn't remember enough key words to find the answer myself! Again, thank you.

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Re: Friday, May 22, 2015 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by alietr » Tue May 26, 2015 4:27 pm

That's the good thing about JBoard. We keep the nicest penguins around here.

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