Millionaire Season 16 Discussion [SPOILERS]

[alietr]

I would have had to burn the audience lifeline on $20k. I reasoned through the $30k (and would have gone for it despite moderate confidence), but probably would have walked on $50k absent one of the other lifelines helping me. I used to sail right up to and through the $50k questions earlier this season. Doesn't seem that way now, though.

Everyone has their own risk profile. I can understand wanting the big bucks, but knowing what you do and don't know is pretty important. She should have walked, especially since she had a large percentage of her salary in hand. I do see people getting seduced by bigger money way too frequently on there.

[triviawayne]

I thought those were easy questions. But I did watch today's episode where the contestant lost on a question about which had the least calcium of a) tofu b) oatmeal c) carrots d) sardines. I had no idea & neither did the contestant.

Ugh. Just watched this for no good reason The umpteenth contestant over the years to throw away a year's salary based on a random guess. Never have and never will understand this thinking.

I planned out my exit strategies before I went on the show, like every contestant should. My plan didn't involve a WILD guess on $50,000, but if I could eliminate one for certain, and one for somewhat certain, I absolutely would have gone for it. Yes, you're risking a year's salary, but if it comes up heads, you lock up two years' salary AND get a free punt at four.

Viewers complain that there aren't enough big winners on the show. That's because people aren't playing "Who Wants to be a Millionaire?" They're playing "Who Wants to Pay Some Bills?" Remember you only get to play the game once. Make the most of it.

Only one shot and make the most of it. Exactly why my plan if they ever call will be $100,000 or bust; and if I can eliminate two answers on $250,000, I'm going for it. I MIGHT even take a chance if I can eliminate one answer at that level.

I would be there to play a game, and I will play to win.

[Vermonter]

If you look at the $250k question strictly from an EV perspective, a random guess from all 4 options has the same payoff as walking away – and that does not take into account the possibility you'll know the $500k question. (Your risk profile may vary.)

[triviawayne]

If you look at the $250k question strictly from an EV perspective, a random guess from all 4 options has the same payoff as walking away – and that does not take into account the possibility you'll know the $500k question. (Your risk profile may vary.)

Getting the $250,000 wrong is $50,000; walking away is $100,000 at that point.

But a $50,000 bet to allow me to look at a question worth ten times the bet? Yeah, I'm inclined to try.

Considering I get about 50% of all $100,000+ questions correct, I can live with the risk.

[MarkBarrett]

The last question from the 5/3/16 show and especially for one particular boardie:

Spoiler

Guess the amount of the question.

Spoiler

$10,000

Spoiler

Mom did not know who Jordan Spieth was either, but she helped through the luggage angle of the clue.


Jennifer Farrell will return tomorrow to see the 20K Q.

[alietr]

And yet again yesterday, she takes a pure guess and loses a bundle.

So I was thinking about expected values. I'm a bit rusty (so feel free to correct me if I've gone astray), but if you assume the contestant is answering totally randomly (25% chance of getting any question correct), here are what I think the expected values look like once each dollar question has been answered correctly. These include the likelihood of getting each successive question correct as well. There are some spots where it's "worth" guessing, but there are some where it clearly is not:

25% Expected Value
0 238
500 953
1,000 1,811
2,000 3,244
3,000 4,976
5,000 7,905
7,000 11,619
10,000 18,474
20,000 33,896
30,000 55,586
50,000 102,344
100,000 209,375
250,000 437,500
500,000 750,000
1,000,000 1,000,000

Bumping up the likelihood of a correct response to 35% (but using that percentage throughout, which probably cannot be maintaned), e.g., changes things considerably at the lower end of the scale:

35% Expected Value
0 484
500 1,385
1,000 2,530
2,000 4,371
3,000 6,773
5,000 10,781
7,000 16,518
10,000 27,195
20,000 49,128
30,000 83,224
50,000 152,069
100,000 291,625
250,000 547,500
500,000 850,000
1,000,000 1,000,000

And if you're able to reduce each one to a coin flip:

50% Expected Value
0 1,638
500 3,397
1,000 5,795
2,000 9,590
3,000 15,180
5,000 24,359
7,000 38,719
10,000 63,438
20,000 106,875
30,000 173,750
50,000 287,500
100,000 475,000
250,000 750,000
500,000 1,000,000
1,000,000 1,000,000

[Vermonter]

Your numbers look a little off, Andy. Here's what I got, not taking possible value of additional questions into account:

Code: Select all

      Right	      Wrong	 Break-even	   EV (25%)	   EV (50%)
        500	          0	         --	        125	        250
      1,000	          0	        50%	       -250	          0
      2,000	          0	        50%	       -500	          0
      3,000	          0	        67%	     -1,250	       -500
      5,000	          0	        60%	     -1,750	       -500
      7,000	      5,000	         --	        500	      1,000
     10,000	      5,000	        40%	       -750	        500
     20,000	      5,000	        33%	     -1,250	      2,500
     30,000	      5,000	        60%	     -8,750	     -2,500
     50,000	      5,000	        56%	    -13,750	     -2,500
    100,000	     50,000	         --	     12,500	     25,000
    250,000	     50,000	        25%	          0	     50,000
    500,000	     50,000	        44%	    -87,500	     25,000
  1,000,000	     50,000	        47%	   -212,500	     25,000

[alietr]

I guess I wasn't being clear -- I was trying to calculate the expected value of all of the subsequent clues given that you have already answered a particular clue correctly already. So, for example, when you walk on the set, if you go about guessing randomly, you can expect to get $238. I did not include the impact of threshholds.

[Carpe Diem]

Is

Spoiler

saying hello and goodbye to two contestants before the first commercial break

some kind of record?

[MarkBarrett]

Is

Spoiler

saying hello and goodbye to two contestants before the first commercial break

some kind of record?

Today is only May 6th? I would have thought it was either April 1st or Friday the 13th.

Lisa Runion

Spoiler

$2000

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Alex Tooley

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$1000

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Alex Marino

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The answer was New Zealand (42 Gold ) and Chris Harrison thanked Alex for saving the show. Alex had no lifelines left and unlike so many people, he did not guess and instead walked with 30K. Jamaica has 17, Iran 15, and Mexico 13.

[Cat Hammarskjold]

I would've gone with Jamaica. I thought they would've won more than that just from men's track let alone women's track or other sports.

[alietr]

Rats. This got preempted in DC because of some shootings. Would have been quite entertaining.

[Winchell Factor]

Friday, May 6:

1. Holy mackerel! That was...certainly spectacular.
2. I would've said Jamaica too. Because, all those sprinters....

[Vermonter]

Friday, May 6:

1. Holy mackerel! That was...certainly spectacular.
2. I would've said Jamaica too. Because, all those sprinters....

My $50k rule of thumb is it's almost never the obvious answer, so I tossed Jamaica out right away. Might have pulled the trigger on NZ without a lifeline – figured since it's a mostly white country, its participation would have dated back to the very early days when gold medals were much easier to win.

[Johnblue]

I was thinking it was Mexico because of the sheer population. Those first two brought shame to the great commonwealth of KY!

[BigDaddyMatty]

They really fooled me on that $50,000 question. I knew Mexico has never done much at the Olympics, but I figured that it had to be either Jamaica or Iran based on their dominance in sports that award a lot of medals (track and freestyle wrestling, respectively).

And remember, kids: the safest place for your watch is under your legs.

[Vermonter]

Re Tuesday's episode:

Spoiler

Other than the kidney question, that was the easiest stack I've seen in a long time. Radiolab did a great episode about Lonesome George a couple of years ago.

[alietr]

Re Tuesday's episode:

Spoiler

Other than the kidney question, that was the easiest stack I've seen in a long time. Radiolab did a great episode about Lonesome George a couple of years ago.

Spoiler

Easy stack, but she did good. I almost got tripped up by Zoe Saldana being in Avatar, but got through that one and got the $50k. I got the $100k the same way she did.

[econgator]

I would've gone with Jamaica. I thought they would've won more than that just from men's track let alone women's track or other sports.

That was my guess.

[alietr]

For Wednesday ...

Spoiler

Totally nailed the$250k. Honky Chateau got a lot of listening from me lo these many years ago, and I remembered the song Hercules. Given the EV, I would have gone for it on that basis. And been right.