Monday, March 21, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]
Moderators: alietr, trainman, econgator, dhkendall
- opusthepenguin
- The Best Darn Penguin on the Whole JBoard
- Posts: 10319
- Joined: Thu Aug 11, 2011 2:33 pm
- Location: Shawnee, KS
- Contact:
Re: Monday, March 21, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]
Woohoo! I pre-called the wagers for first and second place AND that Melissa would get it right AND that Steve would get it wrong. Congrats to Melissa.
-
- Watches Jeopardy! Way Too Much
- Posts: 865
- Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2011 9:09 pm
Re: Monday, March 21, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]
I'm not the only one who yelled "It's pronounced FRAHNK-EN-SHTEEN!" at the TV after the Young Frankenstein clue, am I?
- hbomb1947
- Still hoping to get on Jeopardy! while my age is in double digits
- Posts: 2434
- Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2011 8:31 am
Re: Monday, March 21, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]
Congrats to Melissa on the win. And I can't fault Steve for betting the dollar; I most likely would have done the same. The rule change kind of forced him into it (and this scenario is the principal reason why I still feel that the rule change is unfortunate). Is there any doubt that he would have bet zero dollars if tie games were still permitted? In any event, it's a heartbreaking way for him to lose, although in fairness, he did miss the FJ while Melissa got it right.
I got Vietnam, although I feel I kind of lucked into it through semi-educated guessing.
Angkor Wat was mentioned upthread, but just off the top of my head I feel like it would have to have become a World Heritage Site much earlier than 2011. (And googling confirms that it attained this status in 1992.)
ETA: I was really hoping this would be the time we would finally see a tiebreaker question. But the contestants are obviously skittish about getting into that scenario; and I can't blame them. I think the only way I would personally have bet zero in Steve's position would be if I already had a few wins under my belt; then I might be more inclined to take the risk, in exchange for providing a thrilling finish for the home viewers. Or maybe if I really hated the category, although as Keith noted in tonight's video, category titles are often misleading.
I got Vietnam, although I feel I kind of lucked into it through semi-educated guessing.
Angkor Wat was mentioned upthread, but just off the top of my head I feel like it would have to have become a World Heritage Site much earlier than 2011. (And googling confirms that it attained this status in 1992.)
ETA: I was really hoping this would be the time we would finally see a tiebreaker question. But the contestants are obviously skittish about getting into that scenario; and I can't blame them. I think the only way I would personally have bet zero in Steve's position would be if I already had a few wins under my belt; then I might be more inclined to take the risk, in exchange for providing a thrilling finish for the home viewers. Or maybe if I really hated the category, although as Keith noted in tonight's video, category titles are often misleading.
Last edited by hbomb1947 on Mon Mar 21, 2016 11:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Follow me on twitter, even though I rarely tweet! https://twitter.com/hbomb_worldwide
-
- Loyal Jeopardista
- Posts: 233
- Joined: Tue Jun 10, 2014 10:20 pm
Re: Monday, March 21, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]
Using
34% RR
28% WW
19% RW
19% WR
Works out to 81% if we wager $1 and 73.5% if we wager $0. (assuming ties are 50/50 and 2nd always bets it all)
Right strategy, horrible result.
Count me in the H=HO CHI MEN category for Vietnam. Had no idea otherwise.
34% RR
28% WW
19% RW
19% WR
Works out to 81% if we wager $1 and 73.5% if we wager $0. (assuming ties are 50/50 and 2nd always bets it all)
Right strategy, horrible result.
Count me in the H=HO CHI MEN category for Vietnam. Had no idea otherwise.
- BigDaddyMatty
- Hoping not to get pruney this time
- Posts: 3300
- Joined: Wed Jan 21, 2015 11:05 am
- Location: Anderson, IN
Re: Monday, March 21, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]
Coryat: $31,000
42 R/3 W
DD: 3/3
FJ:
LT: Paul, screech owl, Laughlin, casein, Emma Lazarus, (James) Thurber, sundries, Vatican City (DD)
If TPTB implement a "no ties" rule and it never has to be enforced, is goforthetie's username actually no longer operative?
Another Ho Chi Minh --> Vietnam WAG here.
Siam's gonna be the witness
To the ultimate test of cerebral fitness
This grips me more than would
A muddy old river or Reclining Buddha
42 R/3 W
DD: 3/3
FJ:
LT: Paul, screech owl, Laughlin, casein, Emma Lazarus, (James) Thurber, sundries, Vatican City (DD)
If TPTB implement a "no ties" rule and it never has to be enforced, is goforthetie's username actually no longer operative?
Another Ho Chi Minh --> Vietnam WAG here.
Thailand. As Murray Head once sang:TenPoundHammer wrote:WLT Buddha on Holidays for $200?
Siam's gonna be the witness
To the ultimate test of cerebral fitness
This grips me more than would
A muddy old river or Reclining Buddha
Sprinkles are for winners.
- MarkBarrett
- Watches Jeopardy! Way Too Much
- Posts: 16467
- Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2011 10:37 am
- Location: San Francisco
Re: Monday, March 21, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]
I guess Melissa got redemption for her younger self loss on Get The Picture.
Steve's reel-to-reel story reminds me of my dad's machine from the '60s and early '70s. Dang that thing was heavy. Cassette technology was very welcome.
Mmmm Poptarts. I haven't had once since...let's see....oh yeah...this morning.
Yes, we want to know how Melissa made the 2000 DD wager. It's such a common pretty number, but I want to give Melissa credit for a savvy wager. Only if that was the intent though.
Steve did 8600+3000 on his DJ! round DD in AMERICAN POETS in the third box. I did only 12000+2000 at the time (I keep a running score and play DDs situationally and by feel), so I can understand not going crazy on that category. Naturally the clue turned out to be a gift for cummings.
If Steve had to have that kind of damned if you do damned if you don't kind of loss in the FJ! round at least it was game 2 and not game 5 or 6.
Vietnam was the first thing on my paper, but I added three more from SE Asia with Cambodia the strongest of the potential switches over Thailand or Malaysia. No matter how wrong the logic might have been I would have felt better about sticking with Vietnam if Ho Chi Minh had occurred to me in the 30 seconds.
As it played I was very unsure what to do with my options. It could easily have gone wrong with more time or under studio conditions.
Steve's reel-to-reel story reminds me of my dad's machine from the '60s and early '70s. Dang that thing was heavy. Cassette technology was very welcome.
Mmmm Poptarts. I haven't had once since...let's see....oh yeah...this morning.
Yes, we want to know how Melissa made the 2000 DD wager. It's such a common pretty number, but I want to give Melissa credit for a savvy wager. Only if that was the intent though.
Steve did 8600+3000 on his DJ! round DD in AMERICAN POETS in the third box. I did only 12000+2000 at the time (I keep a running score and play DDs situationally and by feel), so I can understand not going crazy on that category. Naturally the clue turned out to be a gift for cummings.
If Steve had to have that kind of damned if you do damned if you don't kind of loss in the FJ! round at least it was game 2 and not game 5 or 6.
Vietnam was the first thing on my paper, but I added three more from SE Asia with Cambodia the strongest of the potential switches over Thailand or Malaysia. No matter how wrong the logic might have been I would have felt better about sticking with Vietnam if Ho Chi Minh had occurred to me in the 30 seconds.
As it played I was very unsure what to do with my options. It could easily have gone wrong with more time or under studio conditions.
- goforthetie
- (username no longer operative)
- Posts: 1337
- Joined: Tue Oct 18, 2011 5:01 pm
Re: Monday, March 21, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]
Heh. It's interesting that $2000 is still the optimal bet for the last clue DD, even though there's no longer any incentive to tank it.BigDaddyMatty wrote: If TPTB implement a "no ties" rule and it never has to be enforced, is goforthetie's username actually no longer operative?
I think it's a clear call to bet the $1 in the leader's position, unless the category is terrible for you or you're extremely dominant when it comes to buzzer speed.
- DadofTwins
- Watches Jeopardy! Way Too Much
- Posts: 1206
- Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2011 10:11 am
- Location: Fortress of SHC-itude
- Contact:
Re: Monday, March 21, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]
Using data from the last 1,000 3-player FJ's, a 0 bet wins outright 51.7% of the time. The rest go to a tiebreaker, where on an average clue an average leader is a 57.5% favorite against an average trailer. This puts the win expectation of a 0 bet at 79.4%.
A $1 wager wins outright 80.9% of the time, and loses 19.1% of the time assuming the trailer doubles up.
If the leader thinks the trailer will try to get cute with her wager and not double up, the 0 play is favored. Otherwise, out of every 200 lock-ties, a $1 wager will produce 3 more wins for the leader than a 0.
The difference in win probability is small enough, though, that I don't have a problem with whichever way a leader wants to go.
A $1 wager wins outright 80.9% of the time, and loses 19.1% of the time assuming the trailer doubles up.
If the leader thinks the trailer will try to get cute with her wager and not double up, the 0 play is favored. Otherwise, out of every 200 lock-ties, a $1 wager will produce 3 more wins for the leader than a 0.
The difference in win probability is small enough, though, that I don't have a problem with whichever way a leader wants to go.
- This Is Kirk!
- Jeopardy! Champion
- Posts: 6562
- Joined: Mon Dec 17, 2012 1:35 am
- Location: Seattle
Re: Monday, March 21, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]
That was my thinking initially, too, then I realized 2011 would be awfully late for Angkor Wat to be added to the list. I crossed it out and put Vietnam.OSXpert wrote:I thought maybe they were describing Ankor Wat, so I said Cambodia.
-
- Watches Jeopardy! Way Too Much
- Posts: 2723
- Joined: Thu Jan 10, 2013 12:27 pm
Re: Monday, March 21, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]
Where did you pull the 57.5% favorite number from?DadofTwins wrote:Using data from the last 1,000 3-player FJ's, a 0 bet wins outright 51.7% of the time. The rest go to a tiebreaker, where on an average clue an average leader is a 57.5% favorite against an average trailer. This puts the win expectation of a 0 bet at 79.4%.
A $1 wager wins outright 80.9% of the time, and loses 19.1% of the time assuming the trailer doubles up.
If the leader thinks the trailer will try to get cute with her wager and not double up, the 0 play is favored. Otherwise, out of every 200 lock-ties, a $1 wager will produce 3 more wins for the leader than a 0.
The difference in win probability is small enough, though, that I don't have a problem with whichever way a leader wants to go.
If that's accurate, then yes, it's close to a 50/50 choice for the leader and the decision should be wholly by FJ category. If the tiebreak question is 50/50 then the leader should wager the dollar unless it's a terrible category.
- hbomb1947
- Still hoping to get on Jeopardy! while my age is in double digits
- Posts: 2434
- Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2011 8:31 am
Re: Monday, March 21, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]
Does this percentage take into account that the tiebreaker clue is a buzzer race if both players know the correct answer, adding an additional element of risk for the player who led going into FJ?DadofTwins wrote:The rest go to a tiebreaker, where on an average clue an average leader is a 57.5% favorite against an average trailer.
Follow me on twitter, even though I rarely tweet! https://twitter.com/hbomb_worldwide
-
- Watches Jeopardy! Way Too Much
- Posts: 2723
- Joined: Thu Jan 10, 2013 12:27 pm
Re: Monday, March 21, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]
How is this different than any of the first 60 clues? I'm assuming that's how DoT derived his data.hbomb1947 wrote:Does this percentage take into account that the tiebreaker clue is a buzzer race if both players know the correct answer, adding an additional element of risk for the player who led going into FJ?DadofTwins wrote:The rest go to a tiebreaker, where on an average clue an average leader is a 57.5% favorite against an average trailer.
- This Is Kirk!
- Jeopardy! Champion
- Posts: 6562
- Joined: Mon Dec 17, 2012 1:35 am
- Location: Seattle
Re: Monday, March 21, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]
It's probably not even worth attempting to crunch the numbers. I think it's clear $1 was a perfectly valid wager in this scenario. If he hated the category he probably would have wagered zero.
-
- Watches Jeopardy! Way Too Much
- Posts: 1478
- Joined: Fri Apr 17, 2015 12:22 am
- Location: Atlanta
Re: Monday, March 21, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]
If you aren't playing for the tie, there's no reason to limit your wager to $1 in this scenario. Steve could have wagered $1599 to maximize his earnings potential while still staying ahead of Kim's score doubled, in the case third place got the clue and first and second didn't.This Is Kirk! wrote:It's probably not even worth attempting to crunch the numbers. I think it's clear $1 was a perfectly valid wager in this scenario. If he hated the category he probably would have wagered zero.
-
- Watches Jeopardy! Way Too Much
- Posts: 2723
- Joined: Thu Jan 10, 2013 12:27 pm
Re: Monday, March 21, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]
Totally false. Players in the half scenario don't wager it all every time so sayeth the archive. I could also see a player wagering all but $1 as well for some useless reason.9021amyers wrote:If you aren't playing for the tie, there's no reason to limit your wager to $1 in this scenario. Steve could have wagered $1599 to maximize his earnings potential while still staying ahead of Kim's score doubled, in the case third place got the clue and first and second didn't.This Is Kirk! wrote:It's probably not even worth attempting to crunch the numbers. I think it's clear $1 was a perfectly valid wager in this scenario. If he hated the category he probably would have wagered zero.
-
- Watches Jeopardy! Way Too Much
- Posts: 969
- Joined: Wed Apr 30, 2014 11:09 pm
Re: Monday, March 21, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]
29 right.
Me (1), Holiday (2), E-I (1), USA (3), Voila (5), Mel Brooks (4)
Pop (3), Poets (3), 20th Century (2), Newspapers (3), Art (1), Days (1)
Lach Trash: Robert Frost, Emma Lazarus, Arizona Republic
Instaget FJ.
Me (1), Holiday (2), E-I (1), USA (3), Voila (5), Mel Brooks (4)
Pop (3), Poets (3), 20th Century (2), Newspapers (3), Art (1), Days (1)
Lach Trash: Robert Frost, Emma Lazarus, Arizona Republic
Instaget FJ.
-
- Voyeur
- Posts: 1846
- Joined: Mon Sep 26, 2011 12:00 pm
- Location: Princeton, NJ
- DadofTwins
- Watches Jeopardy! Way Too Much
- Posts: 1206
- Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2011 10:11 am
- Location: Fortress of SHC-itude
- Contact:
Re: Monday, March 21, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]
Per the Archive, since S28 the average leader has a batting average of .379 and the average second place player bats .280. Since there is no 3rd place player, this puts 1st ahead of 2nd 57.5% of the time.Golf wrote:Where did you pull the 57.5% favorite number from?DadofTwins wrote:Using data from the last 1,000 3-player FJ's, a 0 bet wins outright 51.7% of the time. The rest go to a tiebreaker, where on an average clue an average leader is a 57.5% favorite against an average trailer. This puts the win expectation of a 0 bet at 79.4%.
A $1 wager wins outright 80.9% of the time, and loses 19.1% of the time assuming the trailer doubles up.
If the leader thinks the trailer will try to get cute with her wager and not double up, the 0 play is favored. Otherwise, out of every 200 lock-ties, a $1 wager will produce 3 more wins for the leader than a 0.
The difference in win probability is small enough, though, that I don't have a problem with whichever way a leader wants to go.
If that's accurate, then yes, it's close to a 50/50 choice for the leader and the decision should be wholly by FJ category. If the tiebreak question is 50/50 then the leader should wager the dollar unless it's a terrible category.
- DadofTwins
- Watches Jeopardy! Way Too Much
- Posts: 1206
- Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2011 10:11 am
- Location: Fortress of SHC-itude
- Contact:
Re: Monday, March 21, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]
This assumes that a tiebreaker clue is completely random. It could be a top-row buzzer race, or a bottom-row potential stumper. Until we see more of them, I think this is the safest assumption to make for calculation purposes.hbomb1947 wrote:Does this percentage take into account that the tiebreaker clue is a buzzer race if both players know the correct answer, adding an additional element of risk for the player who led going into FJ?DadofTwins wrote:The rest go to a tiebreaker, where on an average clue an average leader is a 57.5% favorite against an average trailer.
- Vermonter
- 2003 College Champion
- Posts: 1956
- Joined: Wed Sep 18, 2013 4:57 pm
Re: Monday, March 21, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]
All good wagers, although Melissa might have wagered $1800 in case we saw one more before the horn.
That particular quote has been at the top of my home page since it was first written.MTGcollegestudent wrote:BTW...Keith Williams, take a look at this:
https://www.reddit.com/r/Jeopardy/comme ... son_games/
I don't know if you saw this, but one person said that you were to blame.
Hate bad wagering? Me too. Join me at The Final Wager.