Monday, March 21, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

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opusthepenguin
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Re: Monday, March 21, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by opusthepenguin »

Woohoo! I pre-called the wagers for first and second place AND that Melissa would get it right AND that Steve would get it wrong. Congrats to Melissa.

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Re: Monday, March 21, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by alamble »

I'm not the only one who yelled "It's pronounced FRAHNK-EN-SHTEEN!" at the TV after the Young Frankenstein clue, am I?

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Re: Monday, March 21, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by hbomb1947 »

Congrats to Melissa on the win. And I can't fault Steve for betting the dollar; I most likely would have done the same. The rule change kind of forced him into it (and this scenario is the principal reason why I still feel that the rule change is unfortunate). Is there any doubt that he would have bet zero dollars if tie games were still permitted? In any event, it's a heartbreaking way for him to lose, although in fairness, he did miss the FJ while Melissa got it right.

I got Vietnam, although I feel I kind of lucked into it through semi-educated guessing.

Angkor Wat was mentioned upthread, but just off the top of my head I feel like it would have to have become a World Heritage Site much earlier than 2011. (And googling confirms that it attained this status in 1992.)

ETA: I was really hoping this would be the time we would finally see a tiebreaker question. But the contestants are obviously skittish about getting into that scenario; and I can't blame them. I think the only way I would personally have bet zero in Steve's position would be if I already had a few wins under my belt; then I might be more inclined to take the risk, in exchange for providing a thrilling finish for the home viewers. Or maybe if I really hated the category, although as Keith noted in tonight's video, category titles are often misleading.
Last edited by hbomb1947 on Mon Mar 21, 2016 11:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Monday, March 21, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by danspartan »

Using
34% RR
28% WW
19% RW
19% WR

Works out to 81% if we wager $1 and 73.5% if we wager $0. (assuming ties are 50/50 and 2nd always bets it all)

Right strategy, horrible result.

Count me in the H=HO CHI MEN category for Vietnam. Had no idea otherwise.

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Re: Monday, March 21, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by BigDaddyMatty »

Coryat: $31,000
42 R/3 W
DD: 3/3
FJ: :mrgreen:
LT: Paul, screech owl, Laughlin, casein, Emma Lazarus, (James) Thurber, sundries, Vatican City (DD)

If TPTB implement a "no ties" rule and it never has to be enforced, is goforthetie's username actually no longer operative?

Another Ho Chi Minh --> Vietnam WAG here.
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Re: Monday, March 21, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by MarkBarrett »

I guess Melissa got redemption for her younger self loss on Get The Picture.

Steve's reel-to-reel story reminds me of my dad's machine from the '60s and early '70s. Dang that thing was heavy. Cassette technology was very welcome.

Mmmm Poptarts. I haven't had once since...let's see....oh yeah...this morning. :)

Yes, we want to know how Melissa made the 2000 DD wager. It's such a common pretty number, but I want to give Melissa credit for a savvy wager. Only if that was the intent though.

Steve did 8600+3000 on his DJ! round DD in AMERICAN POETS in the third box. I did only 12000+2000 at the time (I keep a running score and play DDs situationally and by feel), so I can understand not going crazy on that category. Naturally the clue turned out to be a gift for cummings.

If Steve had to have that kind of damned if you do damned if you don't kind of loss in the FJ! round at least it was game 2 and not game 5 or 6.

Vietnam was the first thing on my paper, but I added three more from SE Asia with Cambodia the strongest of the potential switches over Thailand or Malaysia. No matter how wrong the logic might have been I would have felt better about sticking with Vietnam if Ho Chi Minh had occurred to me in the 30 seconds.

As it played I was very unsure what to do with my options. It could easily have gone wrong with more time or under studio conditions.

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Re: Monday, March 21, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by goforthetie »

BigDaddyMatty wrote: If TPTB implement a "no ties" rule and it never has to be enforced, is goforthetie's username actually no longer operative?
Heh. It's interesting that $2000 is still the optimal bet for the last clue DD, even though there's no longer any incentive to tank it.

I think it's a clear call to bet the $1 in the leader's position, unless the category is terrible for you or you're extremely dominant when it comes to buzzer speed.

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Re: Monday, March 21, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by DadofTwins »

Using data from the last 1,000 3-player FJ's, a 0 bet wins outright 51.7% of the time. The rest go to a tiebreaker, where on an average clue an average leader is a 57.5% favorite against an average trailer. This puts the win expectation of a 0 bet at 79.4%.

A $1 wager wins outright 80.9% of the time, and loses 19.1% of the time assuming the trailer doubles up.

If the leader thinks the trailer will try to get cute with her wager and not double up, the 0 play is favored. Otherwise, out of every 200 lock-ties, a $1 wager will produce 3 more wins for the leader than a 0.

The difference in win probability is small enough, though, that I don't have a problem with whichever way a leader wants to go.

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Re: Monday, March 21, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by This Is Kirk! »

OSXpert wrote:I thought maybe they were describing Ankor Wat, so I said Cambodia.
That was my thinking initially, too, then I realized 2011 would be awfully late for Angkor Wat to be added to the list. I crossed it out and put Vietnam.

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Re: Monday, March 21, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by Golf »

DadofTwins wrote:Using data from the last 1,000 3-player FJ's, a 0 bet wins outright 51.7% of the time. The rest go to a tiebreaker, where on an average clue an average leader is a 57.5% favorite against an average trailer. This puts the win expectation of a 0 bet at 79.4%.

A $1 wager wins outright 80.9% of the time, and loses 19.1% of the time assuming the trailer doubles up.

If the leader thinks the trailer will try to get cute with her wager and not double up, the 0 play is favored. Otherwise, out of every 200 lock-ties, a $1 wager will produce 3 more wins for the leader than a 0.

The difference in win probability is small enough, though, that I don't have a problem with whichever way a leader wants to go.
Where did you pull the 57.5% favorite number from?

If that's accurate, then yes, it's close to a 50/50 choice for the leader and the decision should be wholly by FJ category. If the tiebreak question is 50/50 then the leader should wager the dollar unless it's a terrible category.

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Re: Monday, March 21, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by hbomb1947 »

DadofTwins wrote:The rest go to a tiebreaker, where on an average clue an average leader is a 57.5% favorite against an average trailer.
Does this percentage take into account that the tiebreaker clue is a buzzer race if both players know the correct answer, adding an additional element of risk for the player who led going into FJ?
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Re: Monday, March 21, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by Golf »

hbomb1947 wrote:
DadofTwins wrote:The rest go to a tiebreaker, where on an average clue an average leader is a 57.5% favorite against an average trailer.
Does this percentage take into account that the tiebreaker clue is a buzzer race if both players know the correct answer, adding an additional element of risk for the player who led going into FJ?
How is this different than any of the first 60 clues? I'm assuming that's how DoT derived his data.

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Re: Monday, March 21, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by This Is Kirk! »

It's probably not even worth attempting to crunch the numbers. I think it's clear $1 was a perfectly valid wager in this scenario. If he hated the category he probably would have wagered zero.

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Re: Monday, March 21, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by 9021amyers »

This Is Kirk! wrote:It's probably not even worth attempting to crunch the numbers. I think it's clear $1 was a perfectly valid wager in this scenario. If he hated the category he probably would have wagered zero.
If you aren't playing for the tie, there's no reason to limit your wager to $1 in this scenario. Steve could have wagered $1599 to maximize his earnings potential while still staying ahead of Kim's score doubled, in the case third place got the clue and first and second didn't.

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Re: Monday, March 21, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by Golf »

9021amyers wrote:
This Is Kirk! wrote:It's probably not even worth attempting to crunch the numbers. I think it's clear $1 was a perfectly valid wager in this scenario. If he hated the category he probably would have wagered zero.
If you aren't playing for the tie, there's no reason to limit your wager to $1 in this scenario. Steve could have wagered $1599 to maximize his earnings potential while still staying ahead of Kim's score doubled, in the case third place got the clue and first and second didn't.
Totally false. Players in the half scenario don't wager it all every time so sayeth the archive. I could also see a player wagering all but $1 as well for some useless reason.

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Re: Monday, March 21, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by mxc_takeshi »

29 right.

Me (1), Holiday (2), E-I (1), USA (3), Voila (5), Mel Brooks (4)
Pop (3), Poets (3), 20th Century (2), Newspapers (3), Art (1), Days (1)

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Re: Monday, March 21, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by harrumph »

What is a Ho?

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Re: Monday, March 21, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by DadofTwins »

Golf wrote:
DadofTwins wrote:Using data from the last 1,000 3-player FJ's, a 0 bet wins outright 51.7% of the time. The rest go to a tiebreaker, where on an average clue an average leader is a 57.5% favorite against an average trailer. This puts the win expectation of a 0 bet at 79.4%.

A $1 wager wins outright 80.9% of the time, and loses 19.1% of the time assuming the trailer doubles up.

If the leader thinks the trailer will try to get cute with her wager and not double up, the 0 play is favored. Otherwise, out of every 200 lock-ties, a $1 wager will produce 3 more wins for the leader than a 0.

The difference in win probability is small enough, though, that I don't have a problem with whichever way a leader wants to go.
Where did you pull the 57.5% favorite number from?

If that's accurate, then yes, it's close to a 50/50 choice for the leader and the decision should be wholly by FJ category. If the tiebreak question is 50/50 then the leader should wager the dollar unless it's a terrible category.
Per the Archive, since S28 the average leader has a batting average of .379 and the average second place player bats .280. Since there is no 3rd place player, this puts 1st ahead of 2nd 57.5% of the time.

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Re: Monday, March 21, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by DadofTwins »

hbomb1947 wrote:
DadofTwins wrote:The rest go to a tiebreaker, where on an average clue an average leader is a 57.5% favorite against an average trailer.
Does this percentage take into account that the tiebreaker clue is a buzzer race if both players know the correct answer, adding an additional element of risk for the player who led going into FJ?
This assumes that a tiebreaker clue is completely random. It could be a top-row buzzer race, or a bottom-row potential stumper. Until we see more of them, I think this is the safest assumption to make for calculation purposes.

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Re: Monday, March 21, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by Vermonter »

All good wagers, although Melissa might have wagered $1800 in case we saw one more before the horn.
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