2011 Tournament of Champions Thread

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DadofTwins
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Re: 2011 Tournament of Champions Thread

Post by DadofTwins »

Predictions:

Tonight -- Jay
Tomorrow -- Roger wins, Kara is the WC
Friday -- Tom wins in a squeaker, Joon is the WC. John also advances with a correct response in FJ.
Monday -- Erin
Tuesday -- Mark wins, Justin is a WC
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econgator
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Re: 2011 Tournament of Champions Thread

Post by econgator »

seaborgium wrote:I'd love to give my opinions on the match-ups, but since I've already seen the tournament, they would probably smack too much of foreshadowing.
Out of curiosity, before you actually started watching, did you do you own internal ranking? If so, you could share it with us at the end of the QF round.
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jpahk
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Re: 2011 Tournament of Champions Thread

Post by jpahk »

here's what he wrote the day before attending the ToC tapings (from the other ToC thread):
seaborgium wrote:If pressed, I would call this Roger's ToC to lose. I feel like last year didn't have any one player like that (though that may have been a matter of pointing my attitude in that direction to avoid self-fulfilling fear of failure), and 2009 was between Larissa and Dan. I'd call Tom K. the most likely to give Roger a run for his money should they face off. Hopefully TPTB will keep them out of each other's semifinals. (The one thing that worries me about Tom is that his opponents have a 3/4 get rate on the FJs he missed, but I'm probably reading too much into that, and besides, that doesn't matter if you get a lock!)

What I'll be interested in seeing is who gets stronger with ToC material. There are just some people for whom the regular-game material is a mixed bag, but when the writers up their game for ToCs, they dip into stronger subjects for these players. I consider Dan Melia and Vijay to fall into this category. My hunch is that Christopher Short may be one of these. Whether it's true, and whether it helps if so, remains to be seen.

I have doubts about Paul Kursky. Maybe it's because I saw his huge fifth game first and his previous four couldn't live up to it, but he doesn't seem strong enough to me. I'd rank him on a similar plane as Carl Brandt, who also had one huge game. However, given Paul made a sensible, small wager from second place in his first win, I'd guess he's less likely to make a Brandt-esque exit from the QFs by negging himself out of wild card contention.

Another thing I'm wondering is which pairs of 5+ champs will face each other in the QFs. Last year it was me and Jason Zollinger; in 2009 it was Dan Pawson and Cora Peck, Larissa Kelly and Matt Kohlstedt, and Aaron Schroeder and Jim Stevens; in 2008 it was Cathy Lanctot and Mehrun Etebari, Celeste DiNucci and Craig Westphal, and Paul Glaser and Jeff Spoeri; and in 2006 it was David Madden and Bob Mesko. The 5+ pairings of each ToC with more than five 5+ champs since the 5-day limit was lifted (2004 only had four 5+ players) have included the lowest ranked 5-timer, so I'm going to guess this year will have Kara Spak in one of the three pairings. (I assume there'll be three pairings, rather than a trio and one pairing.) I'll guess Christopher Short and Jay Rhee will be in the other two pairings, but I don't have any justification for that.
[edit: my assessment was slightly mistaken: the lowest-earning 5xer in 2009 was Lisa Klink, who faced 4xers Ben Bishop and Dave Simpson.]

Of four-timers (besides the obvious Mark), I think I've got the most hope for Buddy. I can't articulate just why.
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Re: 2011 Tournament of Champions Thread

Post by animfan1 »

Here are my predictions for automatic semi-finalists and wildcards:

Automatic semi-finalists: Tom Nissley, Roger, John, Paul and Justin
4 wild cards: Tom K., Erin, Kara, Jay
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hbomb1947
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Re: 2011 Tournament of Champions Thread

Post by hbomb1947 »

Here are my thoroughly uninformed predictions:

Outright winners in QFs: Tom N., Roger, Joon, Paul, Chris.

wild cards: Tom K., Mark, Charles, Buddy.
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whoisalexjacob
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Re: 2011 Tournament of Champions Thread

Post by whoisalexjacob »

My guesses:

Gold: Roger, Tom K, Joon, Mark, Chris
closest to putting them in Gold: Tom N, Jay
Finals: 1.Tom K / 2.Roger / 3.Chris

Since people are guessing on the individual games, I'll say:
Wed. Jay
Thu. Roger
Fri. Tom K
Mon. Buddy
Tue. Mark
WC Joon, Tom N, Chris, Paul
KenJenningsFan74
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Re: 2011 Tournament of Champions Thread

Post by KenJenningsFan74 »

I have Tom Nissley, Roger Craig, Joon Pahk, Paul Kursky and Mark Runsvold winning their respective quarterfinal matches. Jay Rhee, Tom Kunzen, Buddy Wright and Justin Sausville are my wildcard predictions.

If that's right, then I take Mark Runsvold over Tom Nissley and Buddy Wright in the first semifinal, Joon Pahk over Jay Rhee and Paul Kursky in the second and Roger Craig over Tom Kunzen and Justin Sausville in the third.

In the finals, I predict Roger Craig to finish day one with a fairly comfortable lead over Mark Runsvold in second and Joon Pahk in third, but I envision Mark Runsvold riding the wave of a true Daily Double or two in the second game to take a small lead over Roger Craig into the Final Jeopardy! round. End result: Winner: Mark Runsvold. Second place: Roger Craig. Third place: Joon Pahk.

My dark horse candidate to make a major run for the championship is Tom Kunzen. I wouldn't be surprised at all if he were to walk away with the $250,000 top prize.

Good Luck to all. It should be an exciting two weeks.
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Re: 2011 Tournament of Champions Thread

Post by Glassysquid »

I'm obviously not going to spoil anything, but reading all of these predictions is fascinating for me (and everyone else, too, I'm sure). We hope y'all enjoy the episodes as much as we did when we were taping them!
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hbomb1947
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Re: 2011 Tournament of Champions Thread

Post by hbomb1947 »

Glassysquid wrote:I'm obviously not going to spoil anything, but reading all of these predictions is fascinating for me (and everyone else, too, I'm sure). We hope y'all enjoy the episodes as much as we did when we were taping them!
Glassysquid, my apologies for not predicting you to advance. I hope you prove me wrong. :)
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Re: 2011 Tournament of Champions Thread

Post by pkursk »

Couldn't agree more, Erin. Hi everyone! Paul Kursky here. Thought I'd come by just in time for the fireworks. See you Monday, Erin!
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Re: 2011 Tournament of Champions Thread

Post by alietr »

Welcome, Paul! And best of luck! (But don't take down our GlassySquid!)
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Rex Kramer
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Re: 2011 Tournament of Champions Thread

Post by Rex Kramer »

Glassysquid wrote:I'm obviously not going to spoil anything, but reading all of these predictions is fascinating for me (and everyone else, too, I'm sure).
It's not the best part about being in the ToC, and it's not the best part about being a Boardie, but it's definitely the best part about being a Boardie in the ToC! :)

Rex
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Re: 2011 Tournament of Champions Thread

Post by BigDaddyJ »

Glassysquid wrote:I'm obviously not going to spoil anything, but reading all of these predictions is fascinating for me (and everyone else, too, I'm sure).
Hmmm, that can only mean that the predictions are mostly wrong and a major upset is brewing! :mrgreen:
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Re: 2011 Tournament of Champions Thread

Post by legendneverdies »

I think it's going to be a male semi-finals. But who knows really. If we were on the internet in 1990, most of us would have gone one for three or maybe zero for three in our three finalist predictions in Super J!.
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Re: 2011 Tournament of Champions Thread

Post by MarkBarrett »

I'll get my comments in for the other QF games this week while I have time.

QF #2: Roger Craig (Gold) vs. Kara Spak (Silver) vs. Brian Meacham (Bronze)

Roger:
FJ: 4/5
Coryat: 23,657
DD: 12/13
Right: 28.43
Wrong: 2.57
Position: L+L+1+L+L+1+1

Kara:
FJ: 4/6
Coryat: 14,300
DD: 4/5
Right: 22.67
Wrong: 3.67
Position: 1+2+1+1+L+2

Brian:
FJ: 4/5
Coryat: 13,720
DD: 6/8
Right: 17.40
Wrong: 2.60
Position: L+3+2T+1+2

Justin, Christopher or Joon could all make cases that they should have drawn Kara and Brian. Roger got it, so it's up to him to earn his way to the semis. How could Roger not get there? As long as he plays to only make the next round Roger should be fine. If he bets big to win the QF outright and draws a tough one then that could catch him. It's happened in other TOCs with a players commiting Jeopard-cide.

Others I could see costing themselves by trying to do too much in a QF game are Tom K., Joon and Mark. I haven't seen QF #1 yet, but Tom N., Jay and Charles are three I would see playing more conservatively and not doing anything too crazy.

I put Kara in my Silver group on a hunch that she get in on her fair share of material up her alley. During Roger's regular run some of his opponents scored over 10,000 without major help from DDs. Kara should be able to take a crack at 8,000 - 13,000 in this trio. A hit on the FJ clue should put her in the semis.

Brian was a player who I saw TOC capability in his debut. He got there but never fully lived up to his potential. Something between buzzer and knowledge never clicked beyond good. I still think he has a good game left in him. If he squeaks by his QF game barely making wildcard then I look for him to step it up on the semis. If he plays well in the QF game and cruises to a semifinal spot then I would say he will be outclassed in the semifinals.

Roger is the easy pick to get to the semifinals in this game.
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MarkBarrett
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Re: 2011 Tournament of Champions Thread

Post by MarkBarrett »

QF #3 Tom Kunzen (Gold) vs. Joon Pahk (Gold) vs. John Krizel (Bronze)

Tom:
FJ: 4/6
Coryat: 23,867
DD: 9/11
Right: 29.33
Wrong: 1.83
Position: L+L+1+L+1+2

Joon:
FJ: 6/8
Coryat: 20,325
DD: 8/13
Right: 28.13
Wrong: 3.50
Position: 1+L+1+2+L+L+L+2

John:
FJ: 4/5
Coryat: 15,960
DD: 1/1
Right: 20.80
Wrong: 1.40
Position: 1+1+1+1+2

All three players could make a case about this draw being unfair or at least quite cruel. I had to look twice when I saw it. Really? 7x vs. 5x vs. 4x makes sense on paper, but I would not have thrown these three together. There is going to be blood on the floor at the end with one or two J! careers over. I see this as last man standing.

Tom was a beast throughout his run and chewed up material left and right. He should be able to do the same here. I can't imagine his buzzer skills or knowledge base will fail him this week.

Joon demonstrated great game skill and nerve in his run. In a QF game it's all about making the nine and nothing more. A lock going into FJ is nice, but not necessary. 8/13 on DDs leaves room for hitting a bad clue. His instincts worked well in his regular games for betting big and playing safer. We'll see if that continues.

John led entering FJ in all but his last game, but they were not huge leads. If he could not dominate in regular play then I cannot see him being any better against Tom and Joon. He might need some Roy Holliday luck to make the semis:

1988 TOC

Roy Holliday 5600-5100=500
Barbara Ann Eddy 5800-5401=399
Stephen Lebowitz 3000-3000=0

My pick is who knows? Tom and Joon should move on with the winner not making a difference, but I smell something strange happening in this one.
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Re: 2011 Tournament of Champions Thread

Post by HugoZ »

Given that I would have been in Brian Meacham's spot in the TOC had I not flubbed the last DJ clue in Game 4, I was interested in seeing with whom he would be paired (or is it tripled?).

Oddly enough, it's Roger and Kara, both of whom have Pittsburgh/SW PA connections, and both of whom I've met (Roger in person, Kara via a short FB exchange). Not sure any of that would have been enough to break the group up though.

Not offering any predictions or divulging who I'm rooting for.
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Re: 2011 Tournament of Champions Thread

Post by reddpen »

Too late now to predict Game 1, but what happened is about what I expected. So here goes...

Auto-advancers (chrono order): Tom N., Roger, Joon, Paul, Mark
Wild cards: Jay (easy to say now, but he was my pick), Tom K., John, Christopher

Toughest winner to pick: the Joon/Tom K./John game, followed by Justin/Mark/CShort
Group of Death, aka greatest potential for fireworks: Friday, then Tuesday

I don't think Roger's gonna leave much for Kara and Brian, and I don't have any kind of read on Monday's game. May it be the most exciting of all.

Folly to pick finalists before the semis, right? Like some others, I think it's Roger's tournament to lose. I can't imagine anyone being better prepared. Forced to pick now, I'd probably put Tom N. and Joon in the finals with him, but I could easily see Mark or Tom K. there, and neither CShort nor John would surprise me a great deal. (John's my dark horse for reasons I can't explain, but man did he get a tough draw.)

No doubt I've failed to predict something huge while providing more hilarity for those who know.
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Re: 2011 Tournament of Champions Thread

Post by StevenH »

Roger vs. Kara vs. Brian

I am guessing that Roger will win this one in a blowout, and if he is able to get back the kind of buzzer dominance that he had in his first two regular games then he will be even deadlier. I had predicted that Brian would advance to the semifinals but I didn't think that he was going to draw Roger in the quarterfinals. It was pretty much a given that Kara would be the 5x champion who would have to face Roger.

So I am predicting a victory by Roger, and no wild card players emerging from this game.
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Re: 2011 Tournament of Champions Thread

Post by StevenH »

Joon vs. Tom K. vs. John

Part of me is still not quite sold on Tom Kunzen. During his regular games I kind of felt the same way about him that some people thought of Roger Craig in his original run. I think that there is a small chance that he could be on the same plane as Jason Richards (i.e. benefited in his run from buzzer speed and weak opponents). Maybe TPTB had him pegged as a silver grouper in this ToC and that is how he got matched against Joon in the quarterfinals?

I am still willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. He did average the highest Coryat per game and most correct responses per game of everyone in this ToC, arguably the best field of all time. He should also be well-prepared. Maybe TPTB really did just want to see a good battle between Joon and Tom. My guess is that it will be close between them for the entire game, Joon leads going into FJ, Joon wins and they both advance with a get on FJ. I just don't think that John will be able to keep up. I will predict that John also comes up with the correct response to FJ, doubles up, but still does not have enough for a wild card spot.
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