Wednesday, November 9, 2011 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

[KellyJ!]

More importantly, how do you know that Tom will bet $0 in the lock-tie situation? Since I think his chances on FJ (assuming that Justin gets it right - otherwise his bet doesn't matter) are much higher than his chances on a tie-break clue, Tom should bet $1 on FJ in such a situation. Therefore, Justin playing for the lock-tie possibility seems like a major error.

I agree with this. Wagering to fall to the lock-tie "safety net" on a missed DD is a great strategy in a regular game, but not in a tournament semifinal. I also agree that unless you are uncomfortable with the FJ! category (and want to hope for a better tiebreaker one) a $1 bet by the leader would typically be better than $0 (either way assuming the trailer wagers properly by going all-in you win in 3 out of 4 scenarios, but by betting on FJ! you have the two most likely outcomes both in your favor).

[slam]

More importantly, how do you know that Tom will bet $0 in the lock-tie situation? Since I think his chances on FJ (assuming that Justin gets it right - otherwise his bet doesn't matter) are much higher than his chances on a tie-break clue, Tom should bet $1 on FJ in such a situation. Therefore, Justin playing for the lock-tie possibility seems like a major error.

I agree with this. Wagering to fall to the lock-tie "safety net" on a missed DD is a great strategy in a regular game, but not in a tournament semifinal. I also agree that unless you are uncomfortable with the FJ! category (and want to hope for a better tiebreaker one) a $1 bet by the leader would typically be better than $0 (either way assuming the trailer wagers properly by going all-in you win in 3 out of 4 scenarios, but by betting on FJ! you have the two most likely outcomes both in your favor).

Note that the 4 scenarios aren't even equally likely. Since a TOC competitor is likely to be much better 50% on FJ, that one "bad" scenario becomes even less likely. For example, let's say a a TOC competitor is 60% (and I think it's really higher) to get FJ. Now, betting a dollar only loses in 40% (leader misses) * 60% (trailer gets) = 24% (If 70%, then the chance of losing becomes 30% * 70% = 21%). In fact, because of the conditional nature of the situation, it's even better than that. If the leader misses, the trailer's chances have to be lower than his a priori chances. Let's say they drop from 60% to 50%, so the leader's chances of losing are now 40% * 50% = 20%.

[Vanya]

I'm going to disagree once again, partly for reasons already stated (you should at least know one of the Bush twins'' grandmothers already) and also because the Olsen twins have really not established professional public identities independent of each other.

Obviously you don't follow the Olsen twins closely . But it's not really relevant. Either require first names for each clue, or don't.

[reddpen]

First, congrats to Tom on a dominating performance. Props to both Justin and Erin for their strong play to get this far. At least you didn't beat yourselves, right?

Too many comments worth quoting and responding to, so I'll try to recall them all. Fully agree that the foothills clue was weak. Props to Justin for getting Cotswolds. I also left out "Oh" in the Danny Boy BD&A but am counting that one. I negged myself for the wrong preposition in "Omaha Beach Boys [of] Brazil", which is a bummer after getting to all three elements. VWD by Tom to run the bottom four in the cat.

Having seen hardly any of the Dalton or Brosnan Bond films, I had no shot at Die Another Day but ran the rest. Also ran Twins and Proverb in J, Mascots in DJ... and I'd rule against "create" for "invent". [Where's the gavel smiley?]

My other neg was a dumb WAG of Siegfried for Lohengrin. The only TS I got (besides the Bush twins and the BD&A) was The Spy Who Loved Me. Lucky Ringo. The hidden rabbit on Ms. Bach's Playboy cover (Jan. 1981, the John Lennon interview) remains one of the most elusive ever.

For FJ I could only come up with a fictional character. Charlotte Corday wasn't in the part of my brain that's accessible in 30 seconds, though she is now. I'm 0-fer the week so far, alas. My Coryats are taking a TOC beatdown too, topping 30K only Mon and Wed so far. The rest have all been upper 20s--bleah.

The collective power ratings in Friday's match-up were disheartening--one of (what I think of as) the tourney's two strongest players has to lose--but Tom's effort in this game was most impressive and much deserving of a slot in the finals. Give 'em hell, neighbor! And may we all be surprised and delighted by tonight's game.

[alamble]

I'm going to disagree once again, partly for reasons already stated (you should at least know one of the Bush twins'' grandmothers already) and also because the Olsen twins have really not established professional public identities independent of each other.

Obviously you don't follow the Olsen twins closely . But it's not really relevant. Either require first names for each clue, or don't.

I wouldn't say I follow them closely, but I do certainly follow the fashion and entertainment industries. Plus, I myself am a twin, so this is a bit of a hot button topic.

Here's the $64k question: if Tom himself felt that a last name would have been sufficient for the DD, then why didn't he offer it? Clearly he knew they were the Bush twins. Inconsistent though it may be, the wording of the clue clearly pointed in the direction of, "we need their first names". I certainly wouldn't expect any of the contestants to know Jenna Bush's married name, at any rate.

[opusthepenguin]

My other neg was a dumb WAG of Siegfried for Lohengrin.

I knew that one because of the famous anecdote regarding Austrian tenor Leo Slezak. Supposedly, he'd just sung the final farewell in Lohengrin's closing scene. He was ready to board the swan-drawn boat and glide offstage. But due to a technical glitch, the swan left without him. Turning to the audience, he said, "Tell me, what time is the next swan?"

[OrangeSAM]

Not knowing the original german, I can't make a definitive ruling on invent/create, but I'm inclined to give it to you.

Original german?!? What was I thinkning? Nietzsche? Schopenauer? That was daft!

Anyhow, here's the original french from Voltaire:

Si Dieu n'existait pas, il faudrait l'inventer.

Now I'm leaning against "create", since there's a better french verb for it, "créer".

[cheezguyty]

Here's the $64k question: if Tom himself felt that a last name would have been sufficient for the DD, then why didn't he offer it? Clearly he knew they were the Bush twins.

Alex must have thought everyone watching knew that as well, seeing as how their last name was never even mentioned!

[Bamaman]

I'd have said Bush twins just in case they took that.

[dhkendall]

The hidden rabbit on Ms. Bach's Playboy cover (Jan. 1981, the John Lennon interview) remains one of the most elusive ever.

Oh, but the fun is in the looking! :leer:

Not knowing the original german, I can't make a definitive ruling on invent/create, but I'm inclined to give it to you.

Original german?!? What was I thinkning? Nietzsche? Schopenauer? That was daft!

Anyhow, here's the original french from Voltaire:

Si Dieu n'existait pas, il faudrait l'inventer.

Now I'm leaning against "create", since there's a better french verb for it, "créer".

Too late, I already adjusted my Coryat sufficiently. Besides, the category was about common *English language* proverbs, it may have originally been in French, but English speakers, as is their want to warp originals from different languages, might very well have "create" in common parlance as well.

[Glassysquid]

It's high time I added my two sense about the whole thing.

It's weird to be retired at the tender age of 20, but I was happy to go out the way I did - both Tom and Justin are extremely great humans, as well as buzzer machines. Nothing is so frustrating than knowing the answers and not being able to ring in, unfortunately, and that was the kind of game I had last night. It happens to the best of us - the buzzer giveth, and the buzzer taketh away.

The rest of the ToC is great and completely worth watching - three really awesome people made it to the finals, including the lovely Tom (even if he doesn't wear ties). :] Thanks to everyone on here who supported me, even though I'm the supposedly "lowly" college champ. It was fun to prove some of you at least a little bit wrong and even more fun to prove others of you a little bit right.

I'm sure I'll stick around jboard, but not sure yet how often - I'll need a bit of a jbreak after the madness that is the ToC.

[Vanya]

New Jeopardy category?

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/ ... 6R20111110

[econgator]

Thanks to everyone on here who supported me, even though I'm the supposedly "lowly" college champ. It was fun to prove some of you at least a little bit wrong and even more fun to prove others of you a little bit right.

There are no "lowly" champions, Erin.

You acquitted yourself admirably and have some great memories to keep for a lifetime -- and $10,000, but that doesn't last quite as long!

I'm sure I'll stick around jboard, but not sure yet how often - I'll need a bit of a jbreak after the madness that is the ToC.

Drop in any time. We'll be happy to have ya.

[legendneverdies]

It's high time I added my two sense about the whole thing.

It's weird to be retired at the tender age of 20, but I was happy to go out the way I did - both Tom and Justin are extremely great humans, as well as buzzer machines. Nothing is so frustrating than knowing the answers and not being able to ring in, unfortunately, and that was the kind of game I had last night. It happens to the best of us - the buzzer giveth, and the buzzer taketh away.

But they probably would bring college champs into another Ultimate TofC if they have one(you were 14 or 15 when the last one aired).

[Budphrey]

Erin, just to add to the general flow of good feelings and encouragement ... as a onetime ToC alternate, I find myself with a warmed heart to see a reference in your signature line to "the 16 fine individuals who participated in the 2010-B College Championship" (emphasis mine). In spring 2006 it was obvious in and out of the Green Room that the camaraderie, excitement and sense of kinship extended to all the invitees, including the one who didn't get on camera. But it is especially nice to see that kind of acknowledgment repeated in a more public fashion. Very thoughtful touch!

[legendneverdies]

Erin, just to add to the general flow of good feelings and encouragement ... as a onetime ToC alternate, I find myself with a warmed heart to see a reference in your signature line to "the 16 fine individuals who participated in the 2010-B College Championship" (emphasis mine). In spring 2006 it was obvious in and out of the Green Room that the camaraderie, excitement and sense of kinship extended to all the invitees, including the one who didn't get on camera. But it is especially nice to see that kind of acknowledgment repeated in a more public fashion. Very thoughtful touch!

Now has J! ever used the alternate player in a two-week tourney before? WWTBAM used to invite two alternates in the early days of the Regis show, but later in the run when someone who qualified via the phone game was deemed ineligible, they played the Fastest Finger with nine or on one or two occasions even eight players.

[KellyJ!]

About whether or not alternates have ever played: If I understand correctly (I've never been a contestant) the alternates in the "lesser" tournaments if they don't get to play get a spot in the next tournament of the same type if still eligible; if not they get a spot in the regular games (or if the alternate is a high school senior in the Teen Tournament they can get one in the College games next season). The ToC alternates are different in that it's "now or (probably) never" (the 2001 alternates excepted because they were 5-timers with an already filled field).

[dhkendall]

Thanks to someone who I believe prefers to remain anonymous (but I will say is a former TOC contestant) for bringing this to my attention; the first in a "week long series" on the TOC semis and finals. Looks like an interesting read:

http://www.esquire.com/the-side/feature ... -1-6553521

[Paucle]

It's high time I added my two sense about the whole thing.

you already have-- Your sense of fair play, and sense of camaraderie!

[alietr]

I'm finally catching up, and will just add my congratulations to Tom on a match well-played, and a thank you to both Erin and Justin for being enjoyable contestants to watch (and damn good ones to boot).