Monday, November 28, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

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Volante
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Re: Monday, November 28, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by Volante »

*hands dk a paper bag*
France never crossed my mind. Never considered them very nautical, not in the early 1700s. Meanwhile, Dutch East India Company; -they- were naval.

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Re: Monday, November 28, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by MarkBarrett »

It's been too many years since I saw Kim Worth's run:

#2971, aired 1997-06-30 FLAGS $600: In 1699 this czar created Russia's flag based on that of the Netherlands

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Re: Monday, November 28, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by grindcore »

Well the ending of that episode was what it was, but at least Hobie won "Sound the most like a 19th century baseball player" award

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Re: Monday, November 28, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by BigDaddyMatty »

Coryat: $38,400
46 R/3 W
DD: 3/3
FJ: :(
LT: 3 Musketeers, Tecumseh

I went with France instantly, then considered The Netherlands, but I thought that the red stripe in its flag was orange, perhaps as an homage to the ruling house. (Also, I have a mild form of colorblindness that makes it difficult for me to decipher, e.g., reds vs. oranges.) I really should have thought more about the fact that both the Russian and Dutch flags have horizontal stripes.

I also accidentally left the J. out of The Love Song of J. Alfred Prufrock. Cost me $800 in Coryat, but I was happy because I would have had no idea on that one (or the $600 or $800 clues in the same category) last season. Such is the learning curve.
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Re: Monday, November 28, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by This Is Kirk! »

jjwaymee wrote:Had I not visited St. Petersburg and specifically the former summer palace that Peter built (Peterhof), I certainly would have guessed France. But as it were, it was a fortunate instaget.
Was this fact explained there or are you just saying you noted the similarity between the Russian and Dutch flags when you visited St. Pete?

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Re: Monday, November 28, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by Johnblue »

I'm okay with some flags and I remembered that the French tricolor was roughly 100 yrs later. Also the Dutch &Russian flags are both horizontal stripes. Best game I've seen in a while!

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Re: Monday, November 28, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by seaborgium »

No one has observed that Justin left $400 off his FJ wager. But since Hobie held back $600, Justin still would have won on a triple get. (I'm just glad neither challenger had enough foresight to leave $800 on the table. Although it still would have been an overwager, I would have been sorry to see that modicum of thoughtfulness just miss coming to fruition.)

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Re: Monday, November 28, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by dhkendall »

Sorry I'm late, didn't know I was expected.

Yes insta of instagets, this is one of the drawbacks to knowing a lot about a topic is that you tend to not be able to accurately judge how hard a question is for non experts. I knew the story about Russia's flag based on the Netherlands', but thought it was more commonly known than it was. Was surprised at the triple stumper (even more surprised at the "Italy" guess, at least the UK's (what I assume was meant by "England") is red white and blue!). France seems like an obvious choice in retrospect so I won't begrudge anyone who said France.
BigDaddyMatty wrote: I went with France instantly, then considered The Netherlands, but I thought that the red stripe in its flag was orange, perhaps as an homage to the ruling house.
It used to be orange, but over time it faded to red (and was an easier colour to procure). That's why the top stripe of the old S. African flag was orange, based on the old Dutch flag. I've always thought the Netherlands should go back to orange; more distinctive and makes them easier to tell apart from Luxembourg.
BigDaddyMatty wrote:I also accidentally left the J. out of The Love Song of J. Alfred Prufrock. Cost me $800 in Coryat, but I was happy because I would have had no idea on that one (or the $600 or $800 clues in the same category) last season. Such is the learning curve.
I added an "ing" to "gerrymander", normally ok, but not when asking for an 11 letter word. Thankfully it was a DD so it didn't hurt my Coryat much.
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Re: Monday, November 28, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by jjwaymee »

This Is Kirk! wrote:
jjwaymee wrote:Had I not visited St. Petersburg and specifically the former summer palace that Peter built (Peterhof), I certainly would have guessed France. But as it were, it was a fortunate instaget.
Was this fact explained there or are you just saying you noted the similarity between the Russian and Dutch flags when you visited St. Pete?
It was explained that his time in the Netherlands influenced not only his building of the Russian navy but also physical features of the city of St. Petersburg as well. He wanted it to have a series of canals like Amsterdam. Additionally, Peterhof was teeming with beautiful Delft pottery pieces.

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Re: Monday, November 28, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by silverscreentest »

TenPoundHammer wrote:WLT Pacific at $200? Challenger Deep could be in any ocean. That whole category was YEKIOYD.
Some things you just have to know. You might as well say:
WLT to Asia at $200? Mount Everest could be on any continent.
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Re: Monday, November 28, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by John Boy »

xxaaaxx wrote:Two wins, pissed away. Holy $#*!. Hope IronNeck took his blood pressure meds.
No kidding. I'm not sure I've ever seen a game in which both of the trailing contestants had a chance to win, and would have won with a correct FJ wager; yet both foolishly over-wagered. One chance you get, people, to be on this show...if you're really, really lucky. And you blow that one chance by never thinking for a minute about wagering strategy. Sad. Just sad.

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Re: Monday, November 28, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by MarkBarrett »

seaborgium wrote:No one has observed that Justin left $400 off his FJ wager. But since Hobie held back $600, Justin still would have won on a triple get. (I'm just glad neither challenger had enough foresight to leave $800 on the table. Although it still would have been an overwager, I would have been sorry to see that modicum of thoughtfulness just miss coming to fruition.)
My name is Mark Barrett, not "No one". ;) Page 1

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Re: Monday, November 28, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by opusthepenguin »

John Boy wrote:I'm not sure I've ever seen a game in which both of the trailing contestants had a chance to win, and would have won with a correct FJ wager;
Well, Hobie wouldn't necessarily have won with a correct wager if Allison had also wagered correctly. But, of course, she didn't.

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Re: Monday, November 28, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by skullturf »

silverscreentest wrote:
TenPoundHammer wrote:WLT Pacific at $200? Challenger Deep could be in any ocean. That whole category was YEKIOYD.
Some things you just have to know. You might as well say:
WLT to Asia at $200? Mount Everest could be on any continent.
I actually guessed "Pacific" without being certain of what exactly the "Challenger Deep" was. I just knew that the Pacific was home to the deepest parts of the world's oceans.

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Re: Monday, November 28, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by IronNeck »

It's funny; right before watching this game together my girlfriend asked "Do you think you wagering better than the average contestant would give you a big advantage if you ever get on the show?"

I responded; "Oh no! At most we're talking a 5-10% increase in chances of winning. It's definitely a small advantage."

Well, then there are episodes like this one.

On the trivia side, it was a good show. Only LT I got was The Love Song of J Alfred Prufrock, which I haven't thought about since half a lifetime ago, in early high school.

FJ was an instaget, as I knew about Peter the Great's time in the Dutch shipyards. Initially thinking of "France" is very understandable, especially given Peter's fondness for their culture and institution of French as the language of the Russian nobility. Still, the Dutch were known for their peerless ships and knowing the secrets of navigation while the French were not.
xxaaaxx wrote:Two wins, pissed away. Holy $#*!. Hope IronNeck took his blood pressure meds.
I have been way more incredulous at wagering on the show before. Plus, the combination of having watched Jeopardy regularly for over a year AND the previous DD bets prepared me for the FJ wagering.

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Re: Monday, November 28, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by Golf »

IronNeck wrote:It's funny; right before watching this game together my girlfriend asked "Do you think you wagering better than the average contestant would give you a big advantage if you ever get on the show?"

I responded; "Oh no! At most we're talking a 5-10% increase in chances of winning. It's definitely a small advantage."
I think it's more than that when you factor in all strategic aspects including DD wagering as well as clue selection. Maybe 1% of contestants wager even remotely well on DD's which reduces their winning chances drastically whether they answer right or wrong. Just think how many contestants would have had a lockout had they wagered properly on DD's rather than wagering the standard $2k.

I'm tempted to say that perfect game play combined with proper attitude could result in perhaps a 50% increase in winning chances. Maybe that's pushing it a bit, but most opponents would probably implode when up against the perfect game player. And that has nothing to do with trivial knowledge.

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Re: Monday, November 28, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by IronNeck »

Golf wrote:
IronNeck wrote:It's funny; right before watching this game together my girlfriend asked "Do you think you wagering better than the average contestant would give you a big advantage if you ever get on the show?"

I responded; "Oh no! At most we're talking a 5-10% increase in chances of winning. It's definitely a small advantage."
I think it's more than that when you factor in all strategic aspects including DD wagering as well as clue selection. Maybe 1% of contestants wager even remotely well on DD's which reduces their winning chances drastically whether they answer right or wrong. Just think how many contestants would have had a lockout had they wagered properly on DD's rather than wagering the standard $2k.

I'm tempted to say that perfect game play combined with proper attitude could result in perhaps a 50% increase in winning chances. Maybe that's pushing it a bit, but most opponents would probably implode when up against the perfect game player. And that has nothing to do with trivial knowledge.
The degree to which proper wagering helps partially depends up one's trivia knowledge, but you're correct. If you add DD hunting into the mix, especially with a Forrest bounce, that "5-10%" estimate of mine would certainly go up, especially since one will have more potential DDs to wager on.

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Re: Monday, November 28, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by 1stlvlthinker »

Golf wrote:
MarkBarrett wrote:
OntarioQuizzer wrote:*grabs popcorn*
For the posts that hint at the entertaining game or for the wagering discussion that will follow? ;)
Or posts about whether this FJ will poll in single digits?

No surprise regarding the wagers, very sad that real people throw away free money all the time due to lack of any game theory sense. I've been quiet for a while, had to say something. :)
For the noobs here (like me) can you ELI5 why their wagering strategy was so wrong?
Now swimming in the J! pool.

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Re: Monday, November 28, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by opusthepenguin »

1stlvlthinker wrote:For the noobs here (like me) can you ELI5 why their wagering strategy was so wrong?
Lots of people here can, but it will make your eyes glaze over UNLESS you're willing to put in a little work. And I really mean a little. Not much. You ready?

Here were the scores going into FJ:

Justin Bender: 17000
Hobie Barnes: 16600
Allison Totura: 13200

It's easiest to take things one player at a time. Start with Justin. What would you wager in his position and why?

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Re: Monday, November 28, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by 1stlvlthinker »

opusthepenguin wrote:
1stlvlthinker wrote:For the noobs here (like me) can you ELI5 why their wagering strategy was so wrong?
Lots of people here can, but it will make your eyes glaze over UNLESS you're willing to put in a little work. And I really mean a little. Not much. You ready?

Here were the scores going into FJ:

Justin Bender: 17000
Hobie Barnes: 16600
Allison Totura: 13200

It's easiest to take things one player at a time. Start with Justin. What would you wager in his position and why?
If I'm Justin, I want to make sure I win if Hobie gets it right and wagers everything, so Hobie can get to 33200, I want to wager 16,201.
Since I'm sure you'll have a follow up question, then what would I do if I'm Hobie?
If I'm Hobie, I can't win if Justin gets it right, so I don't need to wager 16600, but want to maximize my chances of winning if he gets it wrong, but then I have Allison to contend with... and so on.

But, if I'm Justin, and I know Hobie won't be wagering 16600, doesn't that mean I don't have to wager 16,201? What if I don't know what Hobie might do?
Now swimming in the J! pool.

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