Friday, December 16, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

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Re: Friday, December 16, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by Austin Powers » Sat Dec 17, 2016 10:48 am

IronNeck wrote:
MarkBarrett wrote:
I've seen posts here about board members behind on watching and catching up. A trip, sickness, work schedule...I get how those things happen. 10 weeks worth of shows? There is no better preparation for doing well on the show than watching faithfully. It should be a habit and not a chore.
This is an interesting point and one that I've been mulling over for a few hours. I was thinking if there was a scenario where cramming that many shows in a very short space of time would be beneficial.

The only scenario that I can come up with is someone consistently hitting $35k+ Coryats that wants to prepare for the rigors of possibly playing 5 games a day when they get on the show. Clearly, based on his play, this doesn't apply to Michael.

Other than that, I don't see the point of this, either.
I had not watched the show in well over a year prior to this.

I'd basically stopped watching as there was very little point, since they'll never let me on. Additionally, I *am* busier than you, and you, and you over there, and it just became very difficult to work the show in.

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Re: Friday, December 16, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by GoodStrategy » Sat Dec 17, 2016 11:21 am

Austin Powers wrote:Is she in the TOC? I am too lazy to look.
Based on what I see here she would be #13 right now (and higher if she wins again on next Monday's show). (Normally they'd show the Top 15 seeds there, but since Cindy won't be able to participate they're showing her and the 15 living champions in contention.)

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Re: Friday, December 16, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by opusthepenguin » Sat Dec 17, 2016 11:47 am

MarkBarrett wrote:Another benefit of Cindy's extended run is the work of a certain archivist to input her games in a timely manner. It's very rare (at least this season) to have 4/5 games for the week in by the ensuing Saturday morning.
Is it a single archivist doing it all? Kudos and thanks to whomever that is! It's been wonderful to see Cindy's games appear so promptly.

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Re: Friday, December 16, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by MarkBarrett » Sat Dec 17, 2016 11:53 am

opusthepenguin wrote:
MarkBarrett wrote:Another benefit of Cindy's extended run is the work of a certain archivist to input her games in a timely manner. It's very rare (at least this season) to have 4/5 games for the week in by the ensuing Saturday morning.
Is it a single archivist doing it all? Kudos and thanks to whomever that is! It's been wonderful to see Cindy's games appear so promptly.
My understanding is the regular Tuesday person did game 1 and someone else stepped up for games 2-4.

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For the TOC list mentioned in a different post it is expected that the College Championship winner in February 2017 would be in the 2017 TOC. That would make 4 wins and $62,001 in the 14th position.

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Re: Friday, December 16, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by guessonguessonguess » Sat Dec 17, 2016 3:03 pm

IronNeck wrote:At what point did this "worst luck" factor in, exactly? Erin had EXCELLENT luck in getting all 3 DDs despite not hunting for them. That's an enormous advantage usually enough for a victory by itself.

That she got all 3 DDs wrong is not a failure of "luck" but of knowledge. All 3 DDs were reasonable and/or come up on the show constantly. In fact, I'm confident that the other two contestants knew all 3 of them cold.
Erin performed excellently throughout the game, getting 80% of her responses correct. She missed four times, three of which were Daily Doubles that she was forced into answering.

Of course there's a "failure" of knowledge that goes hand in hand with missing a question... I mean, duh. That being said, Erin jumped through enough hoops to get selected for the show and had at least one correct response in each of the three categories containing a Daily Double; to perform as solidly as she did throughout the match and miss each Daily Double does relate back to luck, ultimately. Heck... even finding all three Daily Doubles and whiffing on reach of them is, by definition, incredibly unlucky!

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Re: Friday, December 16, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by kprather895 » Sat Dec 17, 2016 3:57 pm

Austin Powers wrote:Is she in the TOC? I am too lazy to look.

If so, I feel regardless of the category, the answer should be her name. In fact I would just tell first podium you're picking Cindys for $200 and be done with it.

I don't think you can just do the empty podium - though given some of the champs this year it would be an improvement.

But she needs some kind of acknowledgment.
I hope the participants in the ToC will consider donating a percentage of their ToC winnings to the CRI.

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Re: Friday, December 16, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by IronNeck » Sat Dec 17, 2016 4:52 pm

guessonguessonguess wrote:
IronNeck wrote:At what point did this "worst luck" factor in, exactly? Erin had EXCELLENT luck in getting all 3 DDs despite not hunting for them. That's an enormous advantage usually enough for a victory by itself.

That she got all 3 DDs wrong is not a failure of "luck" but of knowledge. All 3 DDs were reasonable and/or come up on the show constantly. In fact, I'm confident that the other two contestants knew all 3 of them cold.
Erin performed excellently throughout the game, getting 80% of her responses correct.
Which is very much in line with the average Jeopardy get rate of 78%.

You can keep repeating about her "bad luck" all you like, but she was enormously lucky to get all 3 DDs without hunting for them, and missed them because of a lack of knowledge, something others have pointed out, too. And had she not gotten those 3 DDs, she still would have lost to Cindy, a point you ignore.

And you can keep saying Erin played "excellently" all you like as well, but the objective indicators, like her Coryat, indicates her performance was about average.

Do you know her personally, by chance?

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Re: Friday, December 16, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by econgator » Sat Dec 17, 2016 8:02 pm

hbomb1947 wrote:I'm embarrassed to have only gotten one of the 2 countries (Belize) on the FJ. For the other one I guessed Costa Rica.
That's one more than I got. I know all the countries, but other than Panama, I never cared to memorize which one is where/borders which ocean.

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Re: Friday, December 16, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by morbeedo » Sat Dec 17, 2016 8:34 pm

Austin Powers wrote:
IronNeck wrote:
MarkBarrett wrote:
I've seen posts here about board members behind on watching and catching up. A trip, sickness, work schedule...I get how those things happen. 10 weeks worth of shows? There is no better preparation for doing well on the show than watching faithfully. It should be a habit and not a chore.
This is an interesting point and one that I've been mulling over for a few hours. I was thinking if there was a scenario where cramming that many shows in a very short space of time would be beneficial.

The only scenario that I can come up with is someone consistently hitting $35k+ Coryats that wants to prepare for the rigors of possibly playing 5 games a day when they get on the show. Clearly, based on his play, this doesn't apply to Michael.

Other than that, I don't see the point of this, either.
I had not watched the show in well over a year prior to this.

I'd basically stopped watching as there was very little point, since they'll never let me on. Additionally, I *am* busier than you, and you, and you over there, and it just became very difficult to work the show in.
Same here. It's a vicious circle. Crush the online test; wait; realize there will be no audition; get discouraged; stop watching. I currently have 150 episodes on my DVR including repeats, but I am hopeful my turn to audition will come so I am trying to stay interested, track my average Coryat score and increase my knowledge of Jeopardy material. And I just attended a taping so I could at least be in the room where it happens.

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Re: Friday, December 16, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by Kenny » Sun Dec 18, 2016 4:54 am

Have you considered a sex change? Because it's an
morbeedo wrote:
Austin Powers wrote:
IronNeck wrote:
MarkBarrett wrote:
I've seen posts here about board members behind on watching and catching up. A trip, sickness, work schedule...I get how those things happen. 10 weeks worth of shows? There is no better preparation for doing well on the show than watching faithfully. It should be a habit and not a chore.
This is an interesting point and one that I've been mulling over for a few hours. I was thinking if there was a scenario where cramming that many shows in a very short space of time would be beneficial.

The only scenario that I can come up with is someone consistently hitting $35k+ Coryats that wants to prepare for the rigors of possibly playing 5 games a day when they get on the show. Clearly, based on his play, this doesn't apply to Michael.

Other than that, I don't see the point of this, either.
I had not watched the show in well over a year prior to this.

I'd basically stopped watching as there was very little point, since they'll never let me on. Additionally, I *am* busier than you, and you, and you over there, and it just became very difficult to work the show in.
Same here. It's a vicious circle. Crush the online test; wait; realize there will be no audition; get discouraged; stop watching. I currently have 150 episodes on my DVR including repeats, but I am hopeful my turn to audition will come so I am trying to stay interested, track my average Coryat score and increase my knowledge of Jeopardy material. And I just attended a taping so I could at least be in the room where it happens.
e

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Re: Friday, December 16, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by Kenny » Sun Dec 18, 2016 4:56 am

Have you considered a sex change?

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Re: Friday, December 16, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by morbeedo » Sun Dec 18, 2016 10:32 am

Kenny wrote:Have you considered a sex change?
:roll:

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Re: Friday, December 16, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by Bamaman » Tue Dec 20, 2016 12:54 pm

The Riggs-King match is one of sports' most iconic moments, so being too young to remember it is no excuse. Although they may have all known about the event, but could not pull the name of Bobby Riggs.

Alex's comment about her looking frail was a little cringy, but I think he just meant she didn't look like someone who would play rugby. From a picture I saw of her and her boyfriend, she didn't look too big when she was healthy.

I would have gotten threepeat anyway, but I was ahead of the game as I would have made it a true DD that three was going to be in the question.

Belize and Honduras here. Congrats to the players on getting this.

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Re: Friday, December 16, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by guessonguessonguess » Wed Dec 21, 2016 12:31 pm

IronNeck wrote:
guessonguessonguess wrote:
IronNeck wrote:At what point did this "worst luck" factor in, exactly? Erin had EXCELLENT luck in getting all 3 DDs despite not hunting for them. That's an enormous advantage usually enough for a victory by itself.

That she got all 3 DDs wrong is not a failure of "luck" but of knowledge. All 3 DDs were reasonable and/or come up on the show constantly. In fact, I'm confident that the other two contestants knew all 3 of them cold.
Erin performed excellently throughout the game, getting 80% of her responses correct.
Which is very much in line with the average Jeopardy get rate of 78%.

You can keep repeating about her "bad luck" all you like, but she was enormously lucky to get all 3 DDs without hunting for them, and missed them because of a lack of knowledge, something others have pointed out, too. And had she not gotten those 3 DDs, she still would have lost to Cindy, a point you ignore.

And you can keep saying Erin played "excellently" all you like as well, but the objective indicators, like her Coryat, indicates her performance was about average.

Do you know her personally, by chance?
I do not know Erin personally. Do you know the definition of the word "unlucky," by chance?

(That was rhetorical; based on your responses, the answer is clearly "no.")

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Re: Friday, December 16, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by Golf » Wed Dec 21, 2016 1:40 pm

Finding all 3 DD's without trying was lucky.
Missing all 3 DD's was a combination of lack of knowledge and being unlucky.

But it's kind of like a Millionaire llama saying he/she would have won the million if they had asked questions he/she knew. Yeah, it's mathematically unlucky to miss all 3, but it also sounds like sour grapes.

Regardless of luck, Cindy is still awesome.

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Re: Friday, December 16, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by opusthepenguin » Wed Dec 21, 2016 2:12 pm

So here's what we're stipulating for the sake of argument:

1. Erin's get rate of 80% is slightly higher than the contestant average of 78%.

2. Erin's get rate of 0 for 3 DDs is far below average.

It seems obvious to me that the sample size for Point 1 gives it a much greater significance than the sample size for Point 2. You can't take Point 2 and use it to prove that Point 1 is an anomaly. Point 2 doesn't prove that Erin must be a far worse contestant than her 80% get rate would indicate. That's using the statistically insignificant tail to wag the statistically significant dog. It makes more sense to use Point 1 to suggest that Point 2 probably represents 3 bad breaks for an otherwise capable contestant.

HOWEVER it is far more speculative to claim that bad luck cost Erin the game. Sure, if the two DJ DDs had been clues she knew, she'd have won. But if Cindy had gotten those DDs, she'd have won. Ditto for Michael. There are a lot of different ways this could have ended up with Erin losing, fewer ways that would have led to the opposite result.

Conclusion: Erin's good luck in landing on all three DDs got canceled by her bad luck in drawing DD clues to which she did not know the response. The result was sort of neutral. As Alex would say, "No harm, no foul." At most, based on her Coryat, we might suggest that bad luck MAYBE cost Erin $1,000. It's possible that in 54% of parallel universes, she came in second rather than third.

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Re: Friday, December 16, 2016 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by IronNeck » Thu Dec 22, 2016 3:24 am

guessonguessonguess wrote:
I do not know Erin personally. Do you know the definition of the word "unlucky," by chance?

(That was rhetorical; based on your responses, the answer is clearly "no.")
Projection can be funny, as this post demonstrates! I'm quite aware of what "unlucky" means, but it appears you aren't, which is the problem.

And yes, what Golf and opus wrote, too.

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