"Basic strategy" for Final Jeopardy wagering?

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triviawayne
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Re: "Basic strategy" for Final Jeopardy wagering?

Post by triviawayne »

RKane wrote: Thu Mar 01, 2018 1:40 pm That's ridiculous. Third should be $12799 by your logic, because then they maximize their winnings (which was your motivation for 1st and 2nd betting it all) if they are right on the sole get, and still win on the TS.

But then...oh wait...1st or 2nd could wager only $18798 or $13798 respectively, and then THEY win on the TS.

But then...oh WAIT...another player could hold back $3!!

It's almost like the strategies that exist do so for a reason.

Now, again, I am not an expert (if I was in 3rd in that situation, I don't know if I'd be able to bet below $6001 unless I really hated the category), but, for a player in first, the strategy is completley unambiguously to bet no more than the minimum safe bet, in any case. The fact that games great strategists like Roger Craig and Alex Jacob and Arthur Chu employed this strategy (in Chu's case betting to tie, but that still proves my point to not bet MORE than the MSB) and the game's winningest player Ken Jennings did as well, should tell you what you need to know.
why is everyone ignoring the part where I've said absolute math does not work absolutely because people bet "wrong" all the time? Really--if people bet "properly" all the time, these conversations would never happen.
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seaborgium
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Re: "Basic strategy" for Final Jeopardy wagering?

Post by seaborgium »

triviawayne wrote: Thu Mar 01, 2018 12:59 pm Basic Jeopardy Wagering.png
You added $11,801 to $13,800 and got $26,601
RKane
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Re: "Basic strategy" for Final Jeopardy wagering?

Post by RKane »

triviawayne wrote: Thu Mar 01, 2018 4:15 pm
RKane wrote: Thu Mar 01, 2018 1:40 pm That's ridiculous. Third should be $12799 by your logic, because then they maximize their winnings (which was your motivation for 1st and 2nd betting it all) if they are right on the sole get, and still win on the TS.

But then...oh wait...1st or 2nd could wager only $18798 or $13798 respectively, and then THEY win on the TS.

But then...oh WAIT...another player could hold back $3!!

It's almost like the strategies that exist do so for a reason.

Now, again, I am not an expert (if I was in 3rd in that situation, I don't know if I'd be able to bet below $6001 unless I really hated the category), but, for a player in first, the strategy is completley unambiguously to bet no more than the minimum safe bet, in any case. The fact that games great strategists like Roger Craig and Alex Jacob and Arthur Chu employed this strategy (in Chu's case betting to tie, but that still proves my point to not bet MORE than the MSB) and the game's winningest player Ken Jennings did as well, should tell you what you need to know.
why is everyone ignoring the part where I've said absolute math does not work absolutely because people bet "wrong" all the time? Really--if people bet "properly" all the time, these conversations would never happen.
I'm not ignoring anything. I'm asking why third place should not wager $12799 under your system.
I'm done. Abandon all hope ye who enter here.
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Re: "Basic strategy" for Final Jeopardy wagering?

Post by Golf »

triviawayne wrote: Thu Mar 01, 2018 4:15 pm why is everyone ignoring the part where I've said absolute math does not work absolutely because people bet "wrong" all the time? Really--if people bet "properly" all the time, these conversations would never happen.
Because your math and strategy is so far off it's difficult to come to terms. Similar to your statement you had a 40% chance to make it through the first 10 questions on Millionaire.
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triviawayne
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Re: "Basic strategy" for Final Jeopardy wagering?

Post by triviawayne »

Golf wrote: Thu Mar 01, 2018 10:53 pm
triviawayne wrote: Thu Mar 01, 2018 4:15 pm why is everyone ignoring the part where I've said absolute math does not work absolutely because people bet "wrong" all the time? Really--if people bet "properly" all the time, these conversations would never happen.
Because your math and strategy is so far off it's difficult to come to terms. Similar to your statement you had a 40% chance to make it through the first 10 questions on Millionaire.
apples and oranges
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Re: "Basic strategy" for Final Jeopardy wagering?

Post by triviawayne »

seaborgium wrote: Thu Mar 01, 2018 5:19 pm
triviawayne wrote: Thu Mar 01, 2018 12:59 pm Basic Jeopardy Wagering.png
You added $11,801 to $13,800 and got $26,601
a typo does not change a concept
Total game show career losings = $171,522
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triviawayne
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Re: "Basic strategy" for Final Jeopardy wagering?

Post by triviawayne »

RKane wrote: Thu Mar 01, 2018 6:17 pm
triviawayne wrote: Thu Mar 01, 2018 4:15 pm
RKane wrote: Thu Mar 01, 2018 1:40 pm That's ridiculous. Third should be $12799 by your logic, because then they maximize their winnings (which was your motivation for 1st and 2nd betting it all) if they are right on the sole get, and still win on the TS.

But then...oh wait...1st or 2nd could wager only $18798 or $13798 respectively, and then THEY win on the TS.

But then...oh WAIT...another player could hold back $3!!

It's almost like the strategies that exist do so for a reason.

Now, again, I am not an expert (if I was in 3rd in that situation, I don't know if I'd be able to bet below $6001 unless I really hated the category), but, for a player in first, the strategy is completley unambiguously to bet no more than the minimum safe bet, in any case. The fact that games great strategists like Roger Craig and Alex Jacob and Arthur Chu employed this strategy (in Chu's case betting to tie, but that still proves my point to not bet MORE than the MSB) and the game's winningest player Ken Jennings did as well, should tell you what you need to know.
why is everyone ignoring the part where I've said absolute math does not work absolutely because people bet "wrong" all the time? Really--if people bet "properly" all the time, these conversations would never happen.
I'm not ignoring anything. I'm asking why third place should not wager $12799 under your system.
because weather 1st & 2nd only bet defensively or go all in, 3rd place can not win unless 1st & 2nd place get it wrong; so if 1st & 2nd only make the defensive bet, 2800 keeps 3rd ahead at the end. going all in for 1st and 2nd place vs only making the defensive bet doesn't change the outcome of the game, other than the winning dollar amount, which in only a TS situation would there be a loss of money made.
Total game show career losings = $171,522
seaborgium
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Re: "Basic strategy" for Final Jeopardy wagering?

Post by seaborgium »

triviawayne wrote: Fri Mar 02, 2018 7:43 am
seaborgium wrote: Thu Mar 01, 2018 5:19 pm
triviawayne wrote: Thu Mar 01, 2018 12:59 pm Basic Jeopardy Wagering.png
You added $11,801 to $13,800 and got $26,601
a typo does not change a concept
You're welcome.
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Re: "Basic strategy" for Final Jeopardy wagering?

Post by OneWeirdDude »

GoodStrategy wrote: Mon Feb 19, 2018 9:23 am
Flux3on wrote: Sun Feb 18, 2018 10:03 pm The J! Archive has a wagering calculator:
http://www.j-archive.com/wageringcalculator.php
Which still assumes that ties result in co-champions instead of a tiebreaker.
It assumes a number of things:
1. Winning is better than second place which is better than third, with no real preference.
2. Any place (i.e. first, second, third) is better with a higher score.

Almost every format the show has used violates either or both rules, in whole or in part - except for the part about winning being best.

Here's what I've found:

Regular games:
1. Winning is best.
2. Winners should try for a higher score; runners-up should simply try for second rather than third.

Tournament quarterfinals:
1. Winning is best (your score doesn't matter at that point).
2. Runners-up can compensate maximizing their scores, so as to maximize their chances of being a wildcard semifinalist.

Semifinals: Either win or go home with the semifinalist prize. (But don't forget to have fun!) :lol:

Finals:
1. Winning is better than second place which is better than third.
2. Your score only matters after that, and only if it's huge.
3. Only the second half (Day 14 in the tournament) matters, and everyone can only wager today's totals.

The way I see it, one can still use the Calculator for the first three in that list:

Regular games: For 2nd and 3rd, the prize is fixed, so don't worry about the score besides that.
Quarterfinals:
Just the opposite of the previous. The winner should not care about his score, but the runners-up should care about their scores and nothing else, because of the wildcard positions.

In this case, the leader wants to resist his opponents, but they need to overtake him or at least come close. To use the calculator in this case, use it three times: Once with all three (for the leader's wager), and once each one of the two non-leaders left out (for the other's wager).

For example, Alfred, Bob, and Charlie play a QF game, scoring, respectively, 12k, 11k, and 10k. Do all three to find out Al's wager, leave out Bob's to find out Charlie's, and leave out Charlie's to find out Bob's.

Semifinals: The same as the quarterfinals, but the scores for the runners-up don't matter; you either win or don't.
Finals: Hmm. This gets tricky, since more than double your opponents' scores does not mean a lock tournament and vice versa, for example. Adjustments would probably be necessary here.
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Re: "Basic strategy" for Final Jeopardy wagering?

Post by BaneWilliams »

Holy necro batman.

Though I understand that it's relevant again due to recent player performance.
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