"Basic strategy" for Final Jeopardy wagering?

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mdude04
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"Basic strategy" for Final Jeopardy wagering?

Post by mdude04 »

Hey there,

Not a J! enthusiast so apologies for the basic question. But it seems you could have some sort of chart that has the recommended betting strategy for Final Jeopardy based on your situation (e.g., if your score is X and opponent scores are Y and Z, you should bet Q). Does such a "wagering cheat sheet" exist? Am I over simplifying things?

My thread title is referring to the "Basic Strategy" of Blackjack, which has a defined betting strategy for every possible card hand combination.
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Re: "Basic strategy" for Final Jeopardy wagering?

Post by NoWhammies10 »

The Final Wager is your friend here. Also good are terms in the J-Archive glossary.
Last edited by NoWhammies10 on Mon Jun 19, 2017 8:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: "Basic strategy" for Final Jeopardy wagering?

Post by acthomas »

mdude04 wrote: Mon Jun 19, 2017 7:27 pm Hey there,

Not a J! enthusiast so apologies for the basic question. But it seems you could have some sort of chart that has the recommended betting strategy for Final Jeopardy based on your situation (e.g., if your score is X and opponent scores are Y and Z, you should bet Q). Does such a "wagering cheat sheet" exist? Am I over simplifying things?

My thread title is referring to the "Basic Strategy" of Blackjack, which has a defined betting strategy for every possible card hand combination.
The Jeopardy! Archive has such a calculator:

http://www.j-archive.com/wageringcalculator.php

Each of the games in the archive has an option to show what those strategies should be. Barring new rule changes for ties, this is pretty complete as far as the basics should go.

More complicated scenarios were often covered at thefinalwager.com.
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Re: "Basic strategy" for Final Jeopardy wagering?

Post by triviawayne »

The most basic is to bet enough to stay ahead of the person behind you.
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Re: "Basic strategy" for Final Jeopardy wagering?

Post by jeff6286 »

mdude04 wrote: Mon Jun 19, 2017 7:27 pm Hey there,

Not a J! enthusiast so apologies for the basic question. But it seems you could have some sort of chart that has the recommended betting strategy for Final Jeopardy based on your situation (e.g., if your score is X and opponent scores are Y and Z, you should bet Q). Does such a "wagering cheat sheet" exist? Am I over simplifying things?

My thread title is referring to the "Basic Strategy" of Blackjack, which has a defined betting strategy for every possible card hand combination.
Not sure if this answers anything you're asking, but I would add that if someone were to come up with a manageable chart, they certainly would not be allowed to pull it out and consult it if they were on the show. I say manageable because unlike blackjack where the player and dealer can have scores from 2-20, in Jeopardy there are essentially an infinite number of possible scores, so it would be hard to boil down every scenario to a simple chart. As mentioned, it can be done by computer, as the J Archive wagering calculator does, but the sheer number of possible scores make it pretty tough to come up with a workable chart. One can learn the different situations, as far as what the strategy should be in a number of different scenarios depending on the scores of the 3 players, but it would be very difficult to simplify it to a "cheat sheet" without understanding the mathematical principles behind all of them.
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Re: "Basic strategy" for Final Jeopardy wagering?

Post by Wheatley »

Do not wager all but 2 dollars.
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Re: "Basic strategy" for Final Jeopardy wagering?

Post by AndyTheQuizzer »

Wheatley wrote: Mon Jun 19, 2017 10:33 pm Do not wager all but 2 dollars.
There are situations where "wagering all but 2 dollars" is a very good idea.

Those situations do not come up as often as most people think.
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Re: "Basic strategy" for Final Jeopardy wagering?

Post by triviawayne »

screw it, just bet $4000...every time
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Re: "Basic strategy" for Final Jeopardy wagering?

Post by TomFromMD »

Jeopardy isn't deterministic, like a dealer in Blackjack, so there are different strategies that your opponent could use, and those could impact your own. A pretty good basic strategy (that still has some holes) is:

1) If you're in first, bet enough that you have 2 times the second place, plus $1. Under certain circumstances, you can bet more. Under rare circumstances, you can try to bet less.
2) If you're in second, and third can't catch you, you have a few options:
a) bet little enough that you can beat first if they get it wrong, based on the above rule, which seems to be followed most of the time. If they're wrong, you win. If they're right, you probably would have lost anyway, unless they don't bet to cover you (which happens occasionally - I haven't run any numbers, but it seems to happen much more when women are in first) This is especially good if such a bet will pass their current score if you're right.
b) bet the farm, and hope they don't bet to cover you (again, which seems to be more likely with women)
3)If you're in second and third can catch you, bet at least enough to double them plus a dollar, and then consider the above two rules.
4)if you're in third, figure out if it's a situation where first and second are pretty likely to both bet the farm. If so, and doing so puts you in first if they get it wrong, don't bet anything (or bet very little), and hope it's a tough question. If their bets being wrong would still put you in third, and betting the farm puts you in front of where they'd be, go for it.


In the end, psychologically, I'd much rather have lost because I bet too much trying to catch first than having bet too little when first place under-bets. This has happened several times in the last few weeks.
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Re: "Basic strategy" for Final Jeopardy wagering?

Post by Golf »

OntarioQuizzer wrote: Mon Jun 19, 2017 11:17 pm
Wheatley wrote: Mon Jun 19, 2017 10:33 pm Do not wager all but 2 dollars.
There are situations where "wagering all but 2 dollars" is a very good idea.

Those situations do not come up as often as most people think.
Example please?
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Re: "Basic strategy" for Final Jeopardy wagering?

Post by Jeff-thecdboy »

^Scott Lord was in second place pre-FJ! in his second game, and here's why he should be glad he went all-in on this one:

http://j-archive.com/showgame.php?game_id=4985

ETA: Just found another one where second place should have gone all-in:

http://j-archive.com/showgame.php?game_id=2572
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Re: "Basic strategy" for Final Jeopardy wagering?

Post by Bob78164 »

TomFromMD wrote: Tue Jun 20, 2017 8:53 am Jeopardy isn't deterministic, like a dealer in Blackjack, so there are different strategies that your opponent could use, and those could impact your own. A pretty good basic strategy (that still has some holes) is:

1) If you're in first, bet enough that you have 2 times the second place, plus $1. Under certain circumstances, you can bet more. Under rare circumstances, you can try to bet less.
2) If you're in second, and third can't catch you, you have a few options:
a) bet little enough that you can beat first if they get it wrong, based on the above rule, which seems to be followed most of the time. If they're wrong, you win. If they're right, you probably would have lost anyway, unless they don't bet to cover you (which happens occasionally - I haven't run any numbers, but it seems to happen much more when women are in first) This is especially good if such a bet will pass their current score if you're right.
b) bet the farm, and hope they don't bet to cover you (again, which seems to be more likely with women)
3)If you're in second and third can catch you, bet at least enough to double them plus a dollar, and then consider the above two rules.
4)if you're in third, figure out if it's a situation where first and second are pretty likely to both bet the farm. If so, and doing so puts you in first if they get it wrong, don't bet anything (or bet very little), and hope it's a tough question. If their bets being wrong would still put you in third, and betting the farm puts you in front of where they'd be, go for it.


In the end, psychologically, I'd much rather have lost because I bet too much trying to catch first than having bet too little when first place under-bets. This has happened several times in the last few weeks.
The basic rule from third is do whatever you can to end up with at least twice the (pre-Final Jeopardy!) difference between the two players in front of you (the "Magic Number"). As observed above, the leader usually makes the traditional shut-out bet, so a wrong response will leave the leader with $1 below the Magic Number. That's why it's important to stay at or above the Magic Number. The winning score will almost certainly be at least the Magic Number minus $1 so if you end up below the Magic Number, you will lose no matter what else happens.

If you have less than the difference between the two players in front of you, you're probably hosed because you can't reach the Magic Number. (In a Shore's Conjecture game, we call this the Weak Form.)

If you have more than that difference but less than the Magic Number, you might as well go all in because you need a correct response to get to the Magic Number and have any realistic chance to win the game. (In a Shore's Conjecture game, we call this the Intermediate Form.)

If you're starting with at least the Magic Number (in a Shore's Conjecture game, we call this the Strong Form), things may get complicated, depending on whether you can wager to pass second without risking going below the Magic Number. --Bob
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Re: "Basic strategy" for Final Jeopardy wagering?

Post by Wheatley »

There is one absolute- if you've got a lock game, don't get greedy.
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Re: "Basic strategy" for Final Jeopardy wagering?

Post by Bob78164 »

Wheatley wrote: Tue Jun 20, 2017 6:02 pm There is one absolute- if you've got a lock game, don't get greedy.
There are a couple of other absolutes. If you're leading a crush game, make the traditional shut-out bet. If you're trailing in a crush, bet it all. --Bob
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Re: "Basic strategy" for Final Jeopardy wagering?

Post by AFRET CMS »

Bob78164 wrote: Wed Jun 21, 2017 3:24 pm
Wheatley wrote: Tue Jun 20, 2017 6:02 pm There is one absolute- if you've got a lock game, don't get greedy.
There are a couple of other absolutes. If you're leading a crush game, make the traditional shut-out bet. If you're trailing in a crush, bet it all. --Bob
If in third place with both 1st and 2nd place locked as happened a couple of days ago, why not? But, if only lead has a crush and you're competing for 2nd, you'd want to use standard strategies to maximize your chances for an extra thousand.
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Re: "Basic strategy" for Final Jeopardy wagering?

Post by colonialrampage »

Wheatley wrote: Tue Jun 20, 2017 6:02 pm There is one absolute- if you've got a lock game, don't get greedy.
Even that isn't an absolute. If you manage to pull the absolute wheelhouse category there's a good argument for betting it all even if you put your win at risk.
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Re: "Basic strategy" for Final Jeopardy wagering?

Post by triviawayne »

colonialrampage wrote: Thu Jun 22, 2017 10:25 pm
Wheatley wrote: Tue Jun 20, 2017 6:02 pm There is one absolute- if you've got a lock game, don't get greedy.
Even that isn't an absolute. If you manage to pull the absolute wheelhouse category there's a good argument for betting it all even if you put your win at risk.
nobody is 100% even in a wheelhouse category. While I sure would be tempted in such a situation, it sure isn't worth snatching defeat out of the jaws of victory
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Re: "Basic strategy" for Final Jeopardy wagering?

Post by Wheatley »

colonialrampage wrote: Thu Jun 22, 2017 10:25 pm
Wheatley wrote: Tue Jun 20, 2017 6:02 pm There is one absolute- if you've got a lock game, don't get greedy.
Even that isn't an absolute. If you manage to pull the absolute wheelhouse category there's a good argument for betting it all even if you put your win at risk.
Has anyone ever pulled a real-life Cliff Clavin? I wouldn't want to be the first.
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Re: "Basic strategy" for Final Jeopardy wagering?

Post by seaborgium »

Wheatley wrote: Thu Jun 22, 2017 11:46 pm
colonialrampage wrote: Thu Jun 22, 2017 10:25 pm
Wheatley wrote: Tue Jun 20, 2017 6:02 pm There is one absolute- if you've got a lock game, don't get greedy.
Even that isn't an absolute. If you manage to pull the absolute wheelhouse category there's a good argument for betting it all even if you put your win at risk.
Has anyone ever pulled a real-life Cliff Clavin? I wouldn't want to be the first.
Eric Newhouse sort of did in the Teen Reunion Tournament in 1998; the semifinal-ish round consisted of four games, and the three highest-scoring winners would go to a one-game final round. He got two DDs wrong in DJ, but still achieved a lock with $6,100. He must have decided that guaranteeing himself a victory would mean settling for being the #4 winner, so he bet everything and won on a sole get, making it to the finals over Dana Venator, who had had a lock ($8,900 to $3,500) and wagered to keep it. He clearly had a valid reason to bet everything, and it was borne out by the results, hence my "sort of" qualifier.
Last edited by seaborgium on Fri Jun 23, 2017 12:16 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: "Basic strategy" for Final Jeopardy wagering?

Post by Wheatley »

I guess that's technically an example, although in that situation, you're not locked into getting what you actually want, and have no idea how much money you need.
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