Millionaire 2017-18 Season Discussion [SPOILERS]

[Bamaman]

Lance...

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Congratulations on your win. I was equally clueless on the supermodel question, though I did know the Coke CEO's name. If you don't mind me asking, what is your connection to the lady who was your Plus One?

[LanceJ]

Lance...

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Congratulations on your win. I was equally clueless on the supermodel question, though I did know the Coke CEO's name. If you don't mind me asking, what is your connection to the lady who was your Plus One?

We're both LLamas

[seaborgium]

Congratulations, LanceJ! I can feel free not to hang on to my recording of your show now, correct?

[IronNeck]

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Strong play, Lance! I knew the supermodel question, but would have struggled on the Coke CEO one, and might not have felt confident enough to pull the trigger on the geography last letter one. Very smart, controlled play throughout on your part.

Also, did you intentionally or unintentionally skew the audience by mentioning high fructose corn syrup?

[DBear]

Congrats, Lance. Apologies for the ad from our resident ambulance chaser.

[LanceJ]

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Also, did you intentionally or unintentionally skew the audience by mentioning high fructose corn syrup?

Unintentional -- was a very generous edit, I was super close to locking that in.

Congratulations, LanceJ! I can feel free not to hang on to my recording of your show now, correct?

Unless you want it for your own collection No, thanks a ton. I'm working on downloading Mark's upload and then he's welcome to clear his as well.

Thanks for the kind words, everyone!

[alietr]

Well done, Lance. You chose ... wisely.

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I'd have had to walk on that one if I had no lifelines, too. You have to know when to hold 'em and when to fold 'em, and you did. I was iffy enough on Stan that I probably would have used my ATA on that one, but I knew Coke and I knew palm oil (I'm not sure there's any such thing as 'sustainable' palm oil since they're leveling forests left and right to grow it), so I still would have had two left at that point.

Now to finish up my application and hopefully get picked again.

[seaborgium]

Kids Week alumnus Ian Manka plays today.

[MarkBarrett]

The three questions that concluded the 5/31 show:

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Ian Manka: http://www.j-archive.com/showplayer.php?player_id=1659 going for $20,000

Next:

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The +1 is Patrick Friel: http://www.j-archive.com/showplayer.php?player_id=386
Ian was trying to decide if Castro was around for Bay of Pigs, so whether to count JFK or not or to start from LBJ.  Patrick knew Castro went back to 1959 and Eisenhower.  Using fingers they worked out the math.

Next:

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10 was the correct answer.
$30,000

Next:

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Ian used the ATA which gave him:
BILLYs: 39%
POANGs: 30%
MALMs: 18%
LACKs: 13%

Next:

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Ian wanted to keep playing and wanted to save his 50:50.  BILLYs final answer.

Next:

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$50,000

Next:

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Ian used the 50:50 and it left C & D.

Next:

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Ian walked with $30,000 and Chris asked him to guess for fun.  He went C and 6.5 hours would have been correct.

Comments:

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When I visited O'Brien's in 2014 I met Ian and played on his team.  He was very nice and as he proved today, very smart.  Not my kind of questions for $30K & $50K as I would have gone from all lifelines available after $20K to impossible to know the results playing from home.

[alietr]

I miscounted on the $20k (did it quickly), but got the $30k (knew it) and may have taken the flier on the $50k which I did end up getting right.

[Wpwells]

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I knew Castro extended back to 1959 for Eisenhower, but had Obama getting inaugurated in 2008 instead of 2009 *facepalm*

[MinnesotaMyron]

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I knew Castro extended back to 1959 for Eisenhower, but had Obama getting inaugurated in 2008 instead of 2009 *facepalm*

You're not alone.

[ElendilPickle]

Hey folks,

I'll be appearing on the May 30 episode. Please feel free to direct all insults, vitriol, kibitzing, pity, and ultimately, sympathy(?) to me directly

Well done! I would have had to use a lifeline on the country last letter question - I was strongly considering O - but I remember when the Coke CEO was appointed. Depending on what lifelines I had left, I probably would have walked on your 50K question as well.

[WooWho?]

Kids Week alumnus Ian Manka plays today.

Ian was also my +1 when I was on the show last season. Glad to see him finally turn up! (He taped way back in July.)

[IronNeck]

I like Ian's aggressive play on the $30,000 question. With that in mind,

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I'm surprised he didn't pull the trigger on the $50k one. He is risking $25k to win an extra $20k AND get a free crack at $100k, which, even assuming a pure guess (1/4), has a value of $50k/4= $12,500. Ergo, even with a pure 50/50, he has much better EV going for it...UNLESS $30k was a significant and life-changing amount of money for him, before taxes. Which maybe it is. Otherwise though, he should have went for it.

[threearruda]

Congrats to Ian and LanceJ on two very well played games the last two days!

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I probably would have needed an ATA on Ian's 5k, but no problems through $30k. I knew Castro rose to power in '59 and correctly did the math, while my dad and I assembled a set of Billy's a few months back.

I've noticed on Millionaire that the statistics questions like the one at $50k usually have one of the middle values - B or C - as the correct answer (take that opinion however you want to ). Given that 50/50 split, I'd have felt alright about locking in C just based on the odds, but obviously that's not a great way to go about it, and of course it's easier to say watching on the couch. Congrats are in order for a well-played game and a nice payday nevertheless!

[alietr]

Application submitted and fingers crossed (not that I'm thrilled about Las Vegas in August, mind you).

[ianmanka]

I like Ian's aggressive play on the $30,000 question. With that in mind,

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I'm surprised he didn't pull the trigger on the $50k one. He is risking $25k to win an extra $20k AND get a free crack at $100k, which, even assuming a pure guess (1/4), has a value of $50k/4= $12,500. Ergo, even with a pure 50/50, he has much better EV going for it...UNLESS $30k was a significant and life-changing amount of money for him, before taxes. Which maybe it is. Otherwise though, he should have went for it.

Long-time lurker, first-time poster. Hello all!

Regarding my play:

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On $30K, I was leaning toward BILLY, but wanted a bit of confirmation from the audience. During the commercial break after the question, the warmup comedian asked who in the audience actually knew the correct answer instead of just guessing. I'd say maybe a dozen people raised their hands. Without the ask the audience, I might have still gone for it. Cut from broadcast was a rambling story about trying to find IKEA items for the set of our student-run TV station's game show Mind Games and trying to remember literally any items that I saw during that visit. I think I've only been to IKEA twice in my life.

On $50K, after being conditioned to the endless loop of Millionaire episodes in the green room (the only entertainment available in the room), most number-based questions where the 50/50 lifeline was used seemed to leave the B & C answer choices, the middle two of the set.

I could think of examples leading me in either direction after using the 50/50. Cut from broadcast was my (again meandering) thought process of thinking about what I've heard from other people regarding labor times. I considered that extremely long periods of labor are overreported, whereas short labor periods were unreported -- everyone remembers the wacky crazy-long delivery story, whereas shorter deliveries may be more straightforward and less exciting to recount to friends and family. Or worse still, resentment for those that had an "easy" childbirth. The phrase "first-time mothers" in the question also had me wonder if that would put the average higher or lower.

During pre-contestant briefings, they say that while you're waiting in the green room, make a decision as to how sure you'd need to be on an answer at certain levels to risk it. The producers claim that the contestants who are most unhappy with their performance are those that didn't stick to their pre-game strategy. For me, at pub trivia nights, I tend to play more conservative, but knew that it wasn't going to get me far in the game if I didn't go for it on certain hunches.

I had considered the expected value of the $50K question before the show, and knew that the math says to go for it on an expected-value perspective. Before the show, I had said I wanted at least some hunch before going for it at that level. For example, Lynn's Central Park question from last week, I was leaning benches vs. trees at 60/40. That would have been enough for me to go for it.

The problem with the childbirth question is I found myself completely lost and in a pure tie in my mind between the remaining choices. After the taping, Patrick said that he could make equally-compelling arguments for either answer choice. I didn't press him to ask what he would have done in the same situation (I'll ask him later).

From the moment I saw the question, my first reaction was that I was going to walk ($30K being a lot more satisfying than $5K). Unless the 50/50 had a truly surprising outcome, my decision to walk was unlikely to change, though I did think for about two minutes if I could come up with any convincing argument that led me toward either answer. I was truly surprised by Chris asking for what my answer would have been (forgetting that's an important part of the show when people walk) and blurted my gut answer.

MarkBarrett, thanks for such kind words about both my demeanor and intellect during your 2014 O'Brien's visit! Glad I made such an impression!

If anyone else has any questions about my appearance, I'd be happy to answer.

[alietr]

Long-time lurker, first-time poster. Hello all!

If anyone else has any questions about my appearance, I'd be happy to answer.

The EV is positive if you're completely risk-neutral. Very few people are with that kind of money.

That's interesting that the contestant coordinators say to go in with a game plan; I don't remember them doing so when I sat in the Green Room all day. My 'plan' was (and hopefully will be) to take each question as it comes and make an assessment of how comfortable I feel with it. I don't want to go into it 'expecting' to get a certain amount. If the stack is favorable, I will go far. If not, not.

[MarkBarrett]

The last two questions of the 2017-18 season:

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Heather Legg going for $20,000 with no lifelines remaining

Next:

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Heather had no idea and wanted to guess.  A: Brian Sabean - Final Answer.

Next:

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D: Theo Epstein was the correct answer with Heather gone with $5,000.  That left only time to call down Dana Lopez from the audience to play for $1,000

Next:

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She did not want to overthink it and made B: Vertebrae her final answer even after Chris reread the question trying to help her.  Organs was the correct answer.
New episodes airing in September with the expected crammed taping schedule this summer. The season ended early in S.F. when ABC broke in for the president speaking halfway through the show. It's nice to have a back up viewing option through Austin at 1PT.