Friday, September 22, 2017 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

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Re: Friday, September 22, 2017 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by zerobandwidth »

Andromus wrote: Fri Sep 22, 2017 9:35 pm
TenPoundHammer wrote: Fri Sep 22, 2017 8:39 pm No guess on FJ! What was even the TOM?
Because that's the only thing that's ever been green, right?
Of course not, but you have the category, and a year. Really narrows things down nicely.
Back (way back) on my high school quiz bowl team, we were dealing with national quiz bowl question packs at that point, plus a format where wrong answers after the question was fully read didn't incur a penalty. So we worked out a rule of thumb for blind guesses on poets.
  • If mid-1800s American, anything northeast or wilderness or green, then Walt Whitman.
  • If later-1800s-into-1900s, American, then Robert Frost.
  • If British, not Milton or Shakespeare, and lakes or opium, then coin-toss Wordsworth/Coleridge
  • If British, none of the above, romantic/adventurous, then weighted-coin-toss Byron/Keats.
Similarly, for movies, if 20th century and described as "epic", then Charlton Heston.

Of course these were blind swings, but the question packs favored those targets so often that it was worth buzzing in and taking those swings.
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Re: Friday, September 22, 2017 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by mxc_takeshi »

31 right.

Drink (1), Animals (2), Lit (2), Omar (4), 4-Syllable (1), Quitter (4)
Zanzibar (2), Investing (2), Joint (2), Entertainment (5), "Geo" (2), Acquitter (4)

Lach Trash: Judge Roy Bean, British Columbia, geographic center, Kevin Hart, Nippon

Instaget FJ because the word "green" made me think of Leaves of Grass, and it appeared to be in the right time frame.
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Re: Friday, September 22, 2017 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by MattKnowles »

I guessed Emerson but I'll have a stronger association of Whitman and green now. I used the association of green - nature - Emerson and missed.

They had a clue about "Intermittent Rain" where Intermittent was the 4-syllable word, would they accept "Periodic"? I don't remember the exact phrasing of the clue.
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Re: Friday, September 22, 2017 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by AFRET CMS »

MarkBarrett wrote: Fri Sep 22, 2017 5:19 pm 0/2 on Mondays this season and 8/8 on Tu-Fri clues for 80% the hard way.
My pattern so far, as well. Last season, 80% of my 80% FJs were M-Th gets with a Friday miss. Wonder how long the pattern will continue.
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Re: Friday, September 22, 2017 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by Elijah Baley »

Golf wrote: Fri Sep 22, 2017 7:33 pm
Elijah Baley wrote: Fri Sep 22, 2017 5:38 pm But we did get a demonstration on the one situation in which a TDD may not be the wisest choice.
So what would have been a wiser choice? Assuming of course the contestant is attempting to win the game.
Leaving at least something so that you're still around for FJ, for starters.
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Re: Friday, September 22, 2017 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by Wheatley »

Elijah Baley wrote: Fri Sep 22, 2017 5:38 pm And the strange wagering continues.

But we did get a demonstration on the one situation in which a TDD may not be the wisest choice.
I think that's some major hindsight bias. She needed to get to $9k just to be in position to make a Hail Mary. Going into that FJ with $4,800 was as good as zero.
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Re: Friday, September 22, 2017 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by mrparadise »

MattKnowles wrote: Fri Sep 22, 2017 10:55 pm I guessed Emerson but I'll have a stronger association of Whitman and green now. I used the association of green - nature - Emerson and missed.

They had a clue about "Intermittent Rain" where Intermittent was the 4-syllable word, would they accept "Periodic"? I don't remember the exact phrasing of the clue.
I don't remember the exact phrasing either but I think they'd have to accept "periodic" as well as "occasional", which is what I went with.
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Re: Friday, September 22, 2017 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by xxaaaxx »

mrparadise wrote: Sat Sep 23, 2017 5:18 pm
MattKnowles wrote: Fri Sep 22, 2017 10:55 pm I guessed Emerson but I'll have a stronger association of Whitman and green now. I used the association of green - nature - Emerson and missed.

They had a clue about "Intermittent Rain" where Intermittent was the 4-syllable word, would they accept "Periodic"? I don't remember the exact phrasing of the clue.
I don't remember the exact phrasing either but I think they'd have to accept "periodic" as well as "occasional", which is what I went with.
"A meteorologist uses this word to describe showers that start & stop randomly throughout the day"

I don't know if they'd accept those specific words (personally I'd say occasional fits, not sure if periodic can mean random), but I suspect there's more than a few 4-syllable words that fit.
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Re: Friday, September 22, 2017 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by seaborgium »

Elijah Baley wrote: Sat Sep 23, 2017 3:38 pm
Golf wrote: Fri Sep 22, 2017 7:33 pm
Elijah Baley wrote: Fri Sep 22, 2017 5:38 pm But we did get a demonstration on the one situation in which a TDD may not be the wisest choice.
So what would have been a wiser choice? Assuming of course the contestant is attempting to win the game.
Leaving at least something so that you're still around for FJ, for starters.
At $4,800, she had exactly one third of Lauren's $14,400. If she bets anything less than everything, she's putting herself in a position where she has to get FJ right to win. But at exactly 2/3 Lauren's score, which also was more than double the difference between Lauren and Ivan, she could bet $0 and hope her opponents miss FJ. Now, the double get between Ivan and Lauren, not to mention Ivan's underwager, makes that moot, and given Betsy's wagering history, I don't think she would have held fast at $9,600. But from a pure numbers standpoint, $9,600 is so much better than $9,599, to the point that one should value that over guaranteed participation in FJ.
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Re: Friday, September 22, 2017 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by Golf »

Elijah Baley wrote: Fri Sep 22, 2017 5:38 pm But we did get a demonstration on the one situation in which a TDD may not be the wisest choice.
Golf wrote: Fri Sep 22, 2017 7:33 pm So what would have been a wiser choice? Assuming of course the contestant is attempting to win the game.
Elijah Baley wrote: Sat Sep 23, 2017 3:38 pm Leaving at least something so that you're still around for FJ, for starters.
LOL. Just ignore the question and mention something that means absolutely nothing as far as winning the game?

Seaborgium one possible rationale, you should read it.
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Re: Friday, September 22, 2017 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by morbeedo »

Betsy lost her buzzer mojo in the 4th game and just faded away. Would've been a thrilling comeback had she responded correctly with shoulder and pulled out another sole solve on Final, but it wasn't in the cards for her. Still, she goes home with $60K, so not at all bad for a day's work

That 2 person FJ wagering scenario is tricky, but I would've bet to cover Lauren
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Re: Friday, September 22, 2017 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by scottsol »

If you wager on the basis of correctly answering then covering is the only thing that makes sense.

Not covering only makes sense if you want to protect yourself from a wrong answer, but a non covering wager provides little protection if you could lose if your opponent places a zero wager. If Ivan was not going to cover he should have bet no more than $3799.
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Re: Friday, September 22, 2017 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by opusthepenguin »

scottsol wrote: Sun Sep 24, 2017 11:37 pm If you wager on the basis of correctly answering then covering is the only thing that makes sense.
If you wager on the basis of correctly answering then betting it all is the only thing that makes sense.
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Re: Friday, September 22, 2017 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by SweepingDeveloper »

TenPoundHammer wrote: Fri Sep 22, 2017 7:27 pm
Kiddy Lit for $200 reminded me of a famous blooper.
Must have been a sample clue they used back in 1990. I recognized it too, I responded with
Spoiler
TeeeNKERBELL!
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Re: Friday, September 22, 2017 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by SweepingDeveloper »

No, wait. It's an actual clue used on the show before, says AT back then.
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Re: Friday, September 22, 2017 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by floridagator »

I call hubris on that TDD. It wasn't desperation, because winning the TDD would not have improved her situation.

What are the outcomes?

TDD succeeds - still need the other contestants to foul it
TDD fails - out of the game

The only rational option would have been to make a minimum bet.
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Re: Friday, September 22, 2017 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by MarkBarrett »

floridagator wrote: Fri Oct 06, 2017 8:37 pm I call hubris on that TDD. It wasn't desperation, because winning the TDD would not have improved her situation.

What are the outcomes?

TDD succeeds - still need the other contestants to foul it
TDD fails - out of the game

The only rational option would have been to make a minimum bet.
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Re: Friday, September 22, 2017 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by seaborgium »

floridagator wrote: Fri Oct 06, 2017 8:37 pm I call hubris on that TDD. It wasn't desperation, because winning the TDD would not have improved her situation.

What are the outcomes?

TDD succeeds - still need the other contestants to foul it
TDD fails - out of the game

The only rational option would have been to make a minimum bet.
I see you were so eager to post the h-word that you didn't read the thread and my explanation of how TDD was perfect in that situation.
seaborgium wrote: Sat Sep 23, 2017 6:18 pm At $4,800, she had exactly one third of Lauren's $14,400. If she bets anything less than everything, she's putting herself in a position where she has to get FJ right to win. But at exactly 2/3 Lauren's score, which also was more than double the difference between Lauren and Ivan, she could bet $0 and hope her opponents miss FJ.
Under these circumstances, the difference between getting it right on a TDD and getting it right on anything less than that was the difference between "need the other contestants to foul it" and "need the other contestants to foul it while you don't." And considering that last season, there were 43 triple stumper FJs vs. 19 sole gets by third place, that's a huge bump in her odds if she doubles up.

Here's a breakdown of variously viable wagers.
$5 to $999: guaranteed to remain above the difference between Lauren and Ivan; can therefore pass Ivan by doubling up if he bets to cover and misses FJ; but requires an overwager and miss by Lauren (I suppose exactly $1,000 is good enough too)
$2,400: get to half Lauren's score if correct; chance to win even on a double get (if Lauren wagers $0 and Ivan misses FJ); but also chance of not winning on a single get
$2,800 to $4,799: get to at least double the difference between Ivan and Lauren if correct; no longer has to get FJ right to beat Ivan if he wagers to cover and misses; but is still crushed by Lauren and has to either hope for an overwager and miss by her, or abandon the opportunity to beat Ivan without getting FJ
$4,800: get to two thirds of Lauren's score if correct; can wager $0 and win on a sole get or triple stumper if Ivan and Lauren each wager to cover the player behind them
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