floridagator wrote: ↑Fri Oct 06, 2017 8:37 pm
I call hubris on that TDD. It wasn't desperation, because winning the TDD would not have improved her situation.
What are the outcomes?
TDD succeeds - still need the other contestants to foul it
TDD fails - out of the game
The only rational option would have been to make a minimum bet.
I see you were so eager to post the h-word that you didn't read the thread and my explanation of how TDD was perfect in that situation.
seaborgium wrote: ↑Sat Sep 23, 2017 6:18 pm
At $4,800, she had exactly one third of Lauren's $14,400. If she bets anything less than everything, she's putting herself in a position where she has to get FJ right to win. But at exactly 2/3 Lauren's score, which also was more than double the difference between Lauren and Ivan, she could bet $0 and hope her opponents miss FJ.
Under these circumstances, the difference between getting it right on a TDD and getting it right on anything less than that was the difference between "need the other contestants to foul it" and "need the other contestants to foul it while you don't." And considering that last season, there were 43 triple stumper FJs vs. 19 sole gets by third place, that's a huge bump in her odds if she doubles up.
Here's a breakdown of variously viable wagers.
$5 to $999: guaranteed to remain above the difference between Lauren and Ivan; can therefore pass Ivan by doubling up if he bets to cover and misses FJ; but requires an overwager and miss by Lauren (I suppose exactly $1,000 is good enough too)
$2,400: get to half Lauren's score if correct; chance to win even on a double get (if Lauren wagers $0 and Ivan misses FJ); but also chance of not winning on a single get
$2,800 to $4,799: get to at least double the difference between Ivan and Lauren if correct; no longer has to get FJ right to beat Ivan if he wagers to cover and misses; but is still crushed by Lauren and has to either hope for an overwager and miss by her, or abandon the opportunity to beat Ivan without getting FJ
$4,800: get to two thirds of Lauren's score if correct; can wager $0 and win on a sole get or triple stumper if Ivan and Lauren each wager to cover the player behind them