2017 ToC Quarter-Final Matches Revealed - Discussion

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seaborgium
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Re: 2017 ToC Quarter-Final Matches Revealed - Discussion

Post by seaborgium » Wed Nov 01, 2017 6:46 pm

I was pretty sure before the 2015 ToC that Matt or Alex was going to win, and I remain convinced that only Alex could have beaten Matt, and vice versa. I don't have any similar feelings about anyone in this lineup. (Which is not to say there aren't some I think have a better chance than others; it's just there's plenty of people in the upper echelon of the field.)

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Re: 2017 ToC Quarter-Final Matches Revealed - Discussion

Post by Wpwells » Thu Nov 02, 2017 9:34 am

I'll be surprised if Jason doesn't win the tournament.

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Re: 2017 ToC Quarter-Final Matches Revealed - Discussion

Post by triviawayne » Thu Nov 02, 2017 11:56 am

Put me down for Buzzy hoisting the Cindy Stowell TOC Trophy.

OK, they don't have a trophy, but should, and it should be named for Cindy.

I will also put Austin Rogers and Pranjal Vachaspati in the final where Austin makes a big betting error because he's too wrapped up in the excitement and forgets himself.
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Re: 2017 ToC Quarter-Final Matches Revealed - Discussion

Post by KenJenningsFan74 » Thu Nov 02, 2017 12:33 pm

It's a packed field, all automatic bids to the tournament. The way I have it configured:

Gold:

Austin Rogers
Seth Wilson
Andrew Pau
Pranjal Vachaspati
Hunter Appler

Silver:

Buzzy Cohen
Lisa Schlitt
Alan Lin
Tim Aten
Justin Vossler

Bronze:

Jon Eisenman
Jason Sterlacci
David Clemmons
Sam Deutsch
Lilly Chin

I have Pranjal Vachaspati, Jason Sterlacci, Austin Rogers, Seth Wilson, and Andrew Pau winning the quarterfinal matches, and Hunter Appler, Tim Aten, Buzzy Cohen, and Alan Lin as wildcards. In the first semi, I predict a clash of titans between Austin Rogers, Jason Sterlacci, and Pranjal Vachaspati in which Austin and Pranjal both play at a dizzyingly high level. The difference is one huge Daily Double by Austin, giving him the lead going into the last clue, and he converts for the win. Semi number two is Seth Wilson, Alan Lin, and Hunter Appler, and I see a close game between Seth and Hunter. Seth narrowly leads going into the final clue, and wins with a correct response. I see Andrew Pau emerging in dominant fashion from the third semi versus Buzzy Cohen and Tim Aten. I predict a barnburner of a final, mostly seesawing between Austin Rogers and Andrew Pau, huge Daily Doubles everywhere. I think the score will be within a few thousand going into final on day two, but I have Austin leading, and earning the championship on a sole solve. I know the top seed rarely wins, but that's how I see this ToC playing out. I'm sad that Tim Kutz didn't qualify, though. He was a stellar talent, and if he were in this field, he'd be my dark horse to take the $250,000. As it is, I'll select...Pranjal Vachaspati as my dark horse candidate. Or Andrew Pau, if he can be considered a dark horse, considering how much money he earned. Good luck to all. The ToC is my favorite sporting event of the year, and I'm eager to see another name enshrined among the legends like Bob Verini, Tom Nosek, Michael Dupee, Roger Craig, and so many more.

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Re: 2017 ToC Quarter-Final Matches Revealed - Discussion

Post by SBurrus » Thu Nov 02, 2017 1:58 pm

This should be a heck of a tournament. Looking at the group pic and remembering each of these contestants on "Jeopardy", them there are some knowledgable people. A bunch of them seem to have an encyclopedic knowledge base; I'm really looking forward to the TOC and won't hazard a guess on the champion.

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Re: 2017 ToC Quarter-Final Matches Revealed - Discussion

Post by opusthepenguin » Thu Nov 02, 2017 5:43 pm

KenJenningsFan74 wrote:
Thu Nov 02, 2017 12:33 pm
Only spoilered to conserve spaceShow
It's a packed field, all automatic bids to the tournament. The way I have it configured:

Gold:

Austin Rogers
Seth Wilson
Andrew Pau
Pranjal Vachaspati
Hunter Appler

Silver:

Buzzy Cohen
Lisa Schlitt
Alan Lin
Tim Aten
Justin Vossler

Bronze:

Jon Eisenman
Jason Sterlacci
David Clemmons
Sam Deutsch
Lilly Chin

I have Pranjal Vachaspati, Jason Sterlacci, Austin Rogers, Seth Wilson, and Andrew Pau winning the quarterfinal matches, and Hunter Appler, Tim Aten, Buzzy Cohen, and Alan Lin as wildcards.
So on Tuesday you've got a bronze guy, Jason, defeating silver Tim Aten who sneaks in on a wildcard. Interesting.

I think people didn't really get a chance to see how scary good Jason is since he was in the Teachers Tournament. I've followed him on Sporcle for a couple of years now and I don't often beat him. His handle (El_Dandy) is a regular curse word chez Penguin. Play a few dozen quizzes that he's also played and compare your score.

https://www.sporcle.com/user/El_Dandy/plays/

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Re: 2017 ToC Quarter-Final Matches Revealed - Discussion

Post by badgerfellow » Thu Nov 02, 2017 6:06 pm

opusthepenguin wrote:
Thu Nov 02, 2017 5:43 pm
KenJenningsFan74 wrote:
Thu Nov 02, 2017 12:33 pm
Only spoilered to conserve spaceShow
It's a packed field, all automatic bids to the tournament. The way I have it configured:

Gold:

Austin Rogers
Seth Wilson
Andrew Pau
Pranjal Vachaspati
Hunter Appler

Silver:

Buzzy Cohen
Lisa Schlitt
Alan Lin
Tim Aten
Justin Vossler

Bronze:

Jon Eisenman
Jason Sterlacci
David Clemmons
Sam Deutsch
Lilly Chin

I have Pranjal Vachaspati, Jason Sterlacci, Austin Rogers, Seth Wilson, and Andrew Pau winning the quarterfinal matches, and Hunter Appler, Tim Aten, Buzzy Cohen, and Alan Lin as wildcards.
So on Tuesday you've got a bronze guy, Jason, defeating silver Tim Aten who sneaks in on a wildcard. Interesting.

I think people didn't really get a chance to see how scary good Jason is since he was in the Teachers Tournament. I've followed him on Sporcle for a couple of years now and I don't often beat him. His handle (El_Dandy) is a regular curse word chez Penguin. Play a few dozen quizzes that he's also played and compare your score.

https://www.sporcle.com/user/El_Dandy/plays/
He also won his Rundle in LL74.

His A Rundle.

https://learnedleague.com/standings.php ... ontinental

I'd be surprised if he wasn't in the Finals.

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Re: 2017 ToC Quarter-Final Matches Revealed - Discussion

Post by dhkendall » Thu Nov 02, 2017 6:53 pm

badgerfellow wrote:
Thu Nov 02, 2017 6:06 pm
opusthepenguin wrote:
Thu Nov 02, 2017 5:43 pm
KenJenningsFan74 wrote:
Thu Nov 02, 2017 12:33 pm
Only spoilered to conserve spaceShow
It's a packed field, all automatic bids to the tournament. The way I have it configured:

Gold:

Austin Rogers
Seth Wilson
Andrew Pau
Pranjal Vachaspati
Hunter Appler

Silver:

Buzzy Cohen
Lisa Schlitt
Alan Lin
Tim Aten
Justin Vossler

Bronze:

Jon Eisenman
Jason Sterlacci
David Clemmons
Sam Deutsch
Lilly Chin

I have Pranjal Vachaspati, Jason Sterlacci, Austin Rogers, Seth Wilson, and Andrew Pau winning the quarterfinal matches, and Hunter Appler, Tim Aten, Buzzy Cohen, and Alan Lin as wildcards.
So on Tuesday you've got a bronze guy, Jason, defeating silver Tim Aten who sneaks in on a wildcard. Interesting.

I think people didn't really get a chance to see how scary good Jason is since he was in the Teachers Tournament. I've followed him on Sporcle for a couple of years now and I don't often beat him. His handle (El_Dandy) is a regular curse word chez Penguin. Play a few dozen quizzes that he's also played and compare your score.

https://www.sporcle.com/user/El_Dandy/plays/
He also won his Rundle in LL74.

His A Rundle.

https://learnedleague.com/standings.php ... ontinental

I'd be surprised if he wasn't in the Finals.
I know I'm not the first to point out: skill in LL does not translate at all to skill in J! Two different skillsets. (How many A rundles have JenningsK and RutterB won?)
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Re: 2017 ToC Quarter-Final Matches Revealed - Discussion

Post by badgerfellow » Thu Nov 02, 2017 7:08 pm

dhkendall wrote:
Thu Nov 02, 2017 6:53 pm
badgerfellow wrote:
Thu Nov 02, 2017 6:06 pm
opusthepenguin wrote:
Thu Nov 02, 2017 5:43 pm
KenJenningsFan74 wrote:
Thu Nov 02, 2017 12:33 pm
Only spoilered to conserve spaceShow
It's a packed field, all automatic bids to the tournament. The way I have it configured:

Gold:

Austin Rogers
Seth Wilson
Andrew Pau
Pranjal Vachaspati
Hunter Appler

Silver:

Buzzy Cohen
Lisa Schlitt
Alan Lin
Tim Aten
Justin Vossler

Bronze:

Jon Eisenman
Jason Sterlacci
David Clemmons
Sam Deutsch
Lilly Chin

I have Pranjal Vachaspati, Jason Sterlacci, Austin Rogers, Seth Wilson, and Andrew Pau winning the quarterfinal matches, and Hunter Appler, Tim Aten, Buzzy Cohen, and Alan Lin as wildcards.
So on Tuesday you've got a bronze guy, Jason, defeating silver Tim Aten who sneaks in on a wildcard. Interesting.

I think people didn't really get a chance to see how scary good Jason is since he was in the Teachers Tournament. I've followed him on Sporcle for a couple of years now and I don't often beat him. His handle (El_Dandy) is a regular curse word chez Penguin. Play a few dozen quizzes that he's also played and compare your score.

https://www.sporcle.com/user/El_Dandy/plays/
He also won his Rundle in LL74.

His A Rundle.

https://learnedleague.com/standings.php ... ontinental

I'd be surprised if he wasn't in the Finals.
I know I'm not the first to point out: skill in LL does not translate at all to skill in J! Two different skillsets. (How many A rundles have JenningsK and RutterB won?)
Oh fully aware. Just adding to penguin's remarks that he is better than some will give him credit for.

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Re: 2017 ToC Quarter-Final Matches Revealed - Discussion

Post by seaborgium » Thu Nov 02, 2017 8:40 pm

dhkendall wrote:
Thu Nov 02, 2017 6:53 pm
I know I'm not the first to point out: skill in LL does not translate at all to skill in J! Two different skillsets. (How many A rundles have JenningsK and RutterB won?)
They also won their respective A rundles last season.

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Re: 2017 ToC Quarter-Final Matches Revealed - Discussion

Post by KenJenningsFan74 » Thu Nov 02, 2017 8:41 pm

opusthepenguin wrote:
Thu Nov 02, 2017 5:43 pm

So on Tuesday you've got a bronze guy, Jason, defeating silver Tim Aten who sneaks in on a wildcard. Interesting.

I think people didn't really get a chance to see how scary good Jason is since he was in the Teachers Tournament. I've followed him on Sporcle for a couple of years now and I don't often beat him. His handle (El_Dandy) is a regular curse word chez Penguin. Play a few dozen quizzes that he's also played and compare your score.

https://www.sporcle.com/user/El_Dandy/plays/
I'm not sure Jason Sterlacci is a favorable opponent for Tim Aten, considering the latter's slower style. That's why I picked Jason to win their match, but I think Tim will be competitive and accrue a good points total. Also, I typically have a hard time evaluating Teachers Tournament champions. I was among the many who rated Colby Burnett a bronze in the 2013 ToC.

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Re: 2017 ToC Quarter-Final Matches Revealed - Discussion

Post by opusthepenguin » Thu Nov 02, 2017 8:44 pm

KenJenningsFan74 wrote:
Thu Nov 02, 2017 8:41 pm
opusthepenguin wrote:
Thu Nov 02, 2017 5:43 pm
So on Tuesday you've got a bronze guy, Jason, defeating silver Tim Aten who sneaks in on a wildcard. Interesting.
I'm not sure Jason Sterlacci is a favorable opponent for Tim Aten, considering the latter's slower style.
So there's subtle reasoning behind what might seem a contradiction. I like it.

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Re: 2017 ToC Quarter-Final Matches Revealed - Discussion

Post by sarisson » Thu Nov 02, 2017 9:23 pm

Wpwells wrote:
Thu Nov 02, 2017 9:34 am
I'll be surprised if Jason doesn't win the tournament.
Agreed. His LL QPct after six seasons is .823, well ahead of anyone else in the tournament and even ahead of Jeopardy's two greatest players. And I would say his stats are legit because he got a 105 on this year's WQC... and if you took that WQC, you know how hard it was! Seth got a 93, so I have him in the finals as well. They're the only participants who took the WQC this year.
Here are my unscientific predictions:
Winners: Hunter, Jason, Austin, Seth, Andrew
Wild Cards: Pranjal, Alan, David, Lisa
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Re: 2017 ToC Quarter-Final Matches Revealed - Discussion

Post by hbomb1947 » Sat Nov 04, 2017 12:22 pm

sarisson wrote:
Thu Nov 02, 2017 9:23 pm
Wpwells wrote:
Thu Nov 02, 2017 9:34 am
I'll be surprised if Jason doesn't win the tournament.
Agreed. His LL QPct after six seasons is .823, well ahead of anyone else in the tournament and even ahead of Jeopardy's two greatest players. And I would say his stats are legit because he got a 105 on this year's WQC... and if you took that WQC, you know how hard it was! Seth got a 93, so I have him in the finals as well. They're the only participants who took the WQC this year.
Here are my unscientific predictions:
Winners: Hunter, Jason, Austin, Seth, Andrew
Wild Cards: Pranjal, Alan, David, Lisa
WQC scores are interesting but a large percentage of the material on them bears no relation to the subjects covered on "Jeopardy!" Jason's LL stats are far more indicative of his knowledge base and his ability to handle the uptick in difficulty level of TOC clues. He's scary good. The field is so deep that there are a number of players who wouldn't surprise me by winning it all, but I think Jason has as good a chance as any of them. (Full disclosure: Jason is the only participant in this TOC whom I've met IRL, as he was at TCONA this year.) I haven't fully divided the contestants into elements yet, but I think the person upthread who had Jason as a bronze is way off-base. I have Jason as a gold.

My picks for the QF matches:

Winners: Pranjal, Jason, Austin, Seth, Andrew
WC's: Buzzy, Hunter, Tim, Alan

finalists: Seth, Jason, Andrew

winner: Jason

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Re: 2017 ToC Quarter-Final Matches Revealed - Discussion

Post by zerobandwidth » Sat Nov 04, 2017 10:19 pm

badgerfellow wrote:
Thu Nov 02, 2017 6:06 pm
opusthepenguin wrote:
Thu Nov 02, 2017 5:43 pm
I think people didn't really get a chance to see how scary good Jason is since he was in the Teachers Tournament. I've followed him on Sporcle for a couple of years now and I don't often beat him. His handle (El_Dandy) is a regular curse word chez Penguin. Play a few dozen quizzes that he's also played and compare your score.
He also won his Rundle in LL74.
His A Rundle.
https://learnedleague.com/standings.php ... ontinental
…and just took a win in the LL 1DS about Novelty Music, in part by tagging and snagging a question with a 92% miss rate.
SpoilerShow
…by recognizing pictures of Gangnam which appeared in the "Gangnam Style" video.
Jason really is something special, and I'll be rooting for him in the ToC. (And not just because he gave my #JeopardyLivePanel a shout-out. :lol:) Austin / Jason / { Buzzy or Pranjal or Seth or Justin or Jon } would be an incredible final match.
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Re: 2017 ToC Quarter-Final Matches Revealed - Discussion

Post by Sherm » Sat Nov 04, 2017 11:31 pm

The teachers winners get a bad rep, and maybe its deserved. The Powers that be normally ease up on the questions a bit during those tournaments, and it can be hard to get a good feel for how strong those players are.

I do remember thinking that Colby Burnett was a bit of a wild card back in 2013. Everyone was calling Jason Keller a heavy favorite, and Burnett wasn't discussed too much, but he seemed stronger than the typical teachers winner. Having said that Jason Sterlacci walked through his tourny with ease. He dominated far better than Colby Burnett did, though I think Micheal Farabaugh (who Burnett played 3 of his 4 games against) was a lot stronger than most teacher players.

Combine how he played with what Sterlacci has shown as a LL player. I'd call him a very solid favorite in this thing.

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Re: 2017 ToC Quarter-Final Matches Revealed - Discussion

Post by dhkendall » Sat Nov 04, 2017 11:57 pm

Sherm wrote:
Sat Nov 04, 2017 11:31 pm
The teachers winners get a bad rep, and maybe its deserved. The Powers that be normally ease up on the questions a bit during those tournaments
Cite? I know this “statistic” has been bandied about on here several times, but from personal experience, I find my Coryats and get rates are closer to regular games during the Teachers Tournaments. Since these are picked from the regular pool, and took the regular test, and haven’t proven themselves to be a juggernaut (unlike the people in a TOC), like regular contestants, it makes sense to have them close to regular level.
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Re: 2017 ToC Quarter-Final Matches Revealed - Discussion

Post by seaborgium » Sun Nov 05, 2017 12:31 am

Sherm wrote:
Sat Nov 04, 2017 11:31 pm
The teachers winners get a bad rep, and maybe its deserved. The Powers that be normally ease up on the questions a bit during those tournaments, and it can be hard to get a good feel for how strong those players are.
I don't think that the TT champs' general underperforming in the ToC is necessarily because they ease up on the questions in the TT, but rather because they're guaranteeing that one person out of 15 qualified contestants will go to the ToC, whereas the ratio of ToC qualifiers to eliminated players in regular games is smaller.

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Re: 2017 ToC Quarter-Final Matches Revealed - Discussion

Post by triviawayne » Sun Nov 05, 2017 8:29 am

dhkendall wrote:
Sat Nov 04, 2017 11:57 pm
Sherm wrote:
Sat Nov 04, 2017 11:31 pm
The teachers winners get a bad rep, and maybe its deserved. The Powers that be normally ease up on the questions a bit during those tournaments
Cite? I know this “statistic” has been bandied about on here several times, but from personal experience, I find my Coryats and get rates are closer to regular games during the Teachers Tournaments. Since these are picked from the regular pool, and took the regular test, and haven’t proven themselves to be a juggernaut (unlike the people in a TOC), like regular contestants, it makes sense to have them close to regular level.
agreed, my scores are unchanged in the TT vs regular shows as well.

There was also a time I thought maybe sweeps weeks questions on Millionaire were easier than normal, but I've found that wasn't the case (for me anyway) there either.
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Re: 2017 ToC Quarter-Final Matches Revealed - Discussion

Post by triviawayne » Sun Nov 05, 2017 8:34 am

seaborgium wrote:
Sun Nov 05, 2017 12:31 am
Sherm wrote:
Sat Nov 04, 2017 11:31 pm
The teachers winners get a bad rep, and maybe its deserved. The Powers that be normally ease up on the questions a bit during those tournaments, and it can be hard to get a good feel for how strong those players are.
I don't think that the TT champs' general underperforming in the ToC is necessarily because they ease up on the questions in the TT, but rather because they're guaranteeing that one person out of 15 qualified contestants will go to the ToC, whereas the ratio of ToC qualifiers to eliminated players in regular games is smaller.
exactly...to qualify for the TOC in the TT, you only need to win one game and have a better score over two games while facing only 6 opponents; for the TOC, you need to win a minimum of 4 games (unless something crazy happens) against 8 opponents while scoring high enough to beat out several other players over the course of a year. Winning 4 games or more in the regular season also means you faced more categories and questions and still had what it takes to qualify.

I think the automatic bids of the tournaments mask some weaknesses the winners have and it will show in the TOC.
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