2017 ToC Quarter-Final Matches Revealed - Discussion

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Re: 2017 ToC Quarter-Final Matches Revealed - Discussion

Post by MTGcollegestudent » Sun Nov 05, 2017 6:13 pm

I kind of agree with KJF74 on the assessment, but from where we've seen with these guys, they do have some flaws with their gameplay. For starters, Pranjal is tops of the team with buzzing percentage, but the problem is that he second-guesses his answers and does lead to poor guesses. He's got to do better than that to face the big elephant in the room, Austin Rogers.

Plus too, between Austin and Pranjal, they're two of the top players in the tournament that earn a lot of money from DDs. Andrew comes at 3rd, close to Buzzy at 4th, and Seth at 5th. You're looking at the top 5 DD betting players right there. You know, I'd be really surprised if Austin really did lose, and Seth as well. They're the two players with the most wins so far, 12 each. I'm highly doubting either of the teachers to win the whole shebang. After all, you saw in recent weeks where Mr. Bartender set the bar to prove that he means business and could be the guy to take the whole thing.

In terms of what would be the key to this ToC, knowledge. This group of contenders have 3 teachers (One normal contestant, two Teacher Tournament), an assistant professor, two attorneys and a bartender that could possess more probable knowledge than any of the other competitors. In some cases, teachers, attorneys, and bartenders tend to be bright in most cases.

Although, I would be surprised if Alan Lin did make it to the finals. It'd be a big surprise because, here's a guy in his 20s-30s that is bright and has a good base of knowledge that pretty much impressed us in his 6 wins. But in a Tournament of Champions, he does know that he has to study hard. Same goes with Lilly and Sam, as they're probably the three youngest contestants in this tournament.

What really surprised me is Seth and how he managed to avoid almost losing game #5. It brought so many questions as to how he would fight in the ToC. With the way we witnessed in his final game, he may not be so lucky with a small bet like that. Had he actually lost on game #5, then Tim Kutz would be in the ToC instead of Seth.

Buzzy and Tim's games are sort of similar...where they start winning big, and their gameplay declined. Buzzy, being the showboat himself, he's gotta be better than that. There are probably 6 or 7 contestants that have more vast knowledge than what he would possess.

Jon Eisenmann, believe it or not, probably isn't gonna make it. When we witnessed his games, he kept going for the clue values on his DDs, eventually, it would get to him and it resulted in his 6th game, a loss. You can't do that when you know that you're facing one of the top 5 DD betting players.

I dunno...it's "anything goes" in the tournament. Anything can happen...
Last edited by MTGcollegestudent on Tue Nov 07, 2017 11:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2017 ToC Quarter-Final Matches Revealed - Discussion

Post by hbomb1947 » Mon Nov 06, 2017 2:53 am

triviawayne wrote:
Sun Nov 05, 2017 8:34 am

I think the automatic bids of the tournaments mask some weaknesses the winners have and it will show in the TOC.
Jason has very few weaknesses, as his LL profile reflects.

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Re: 2017 ToC Quarter-Final Matches Revealed - Discussion

Post by jeff6286 » Mon Nov 06, 2017 5:52 am

hbomb1947 wrote:
Mon Nov 06, 2017 2:53 am
triviawayne wrote:
Sun Nov 05, 2017 8:34 am

I think the automatic bids of the tournaments mask some weaknesses the winners have and it will show in the TOC.
Jason has very few weaknesses, as his LL profile reflects.
His regular season LL stats don't even tell the full story. Check out his one day record, the guy knows virtually everything about virtually everything. It doesn't matter how niche or disparate a day's 3 quizzes may be, he is an expert in all of them.

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Re: 2017 ToC Quarter-Final Matches Revealed - Discussion

Post by triviawayne » Mon Nov 06, 2017 7:30 am

jeff6286 wrote:
Mon Nov 06, 2017 5:52 am
hbomb1947 wrote:
Mon Nov 06, 2017 2:53 am
triviawayne wrote:
Sun Nov 05, 2017 8:34 am

I think the automatic bids of the tournaments mask some weaknesses the winners have and it will show in the TOC.
Jason has very few weaknesses, as his LL profile reflects.
His regular season LL stats don't even tell the full story. Check out his one day record, the guy knows virtually everything about virtually everything. It doesn't matter how niche or disparate a day's 3 quizzes may be, he is an expert in all of them.
he had lock, lock, day 1 was a near lock and day 2 was a lock--I think this would be the outlier of a TT champ.

What I was trying to point out mostly in my OP was how you could technically have a (sort of) 1-3 record in games, but still be in the TOC.
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Re: 2017 ToC Quarter-Final Matches Revealed - Discussion

Post by seaborgium » Mon Nov 06, 2017 8:24 am

triviawayne wrote:
Mon Nov 06, 2017 7:30 am
jeff6286 wrote:
Mon Nov 06, 2017 5:52 am
hbomb1947 wrote:
Mon Nov 06, 2017 2:53 am
triviawayne wrote:
Sun Nov 05, 2017 8:34 am

I think the automatic bids of the tournaments mask some weaknesses the winners have and it will show in the TOC.
Jason has very few weaknesses, as his LL profile reflects.
His regular season LL stats don't even tell the full story. Check out his one day record, the guy knows virtually everything about virtually everything. It doesn't matter how niche or disparate a day's 3 quizzes may be, he is an expert in all of them.
he had lock, lock, day 1 was a near lock and day 2 was a lock--I think this would be the outlier of a TT champ.

What I was trying to point out mostly in my OP was how you could technically have a (sort of) 1-3 record in games, but still be in the TOC.
And to continue agreeing with you: the fact that fewer than 1/15 of regular contestants get into a ToC doesn't mean that a given group of 15 players isn't going to have a ToC-caliber contestant.

If one were to say that Jason and Colby are the only TT players on that level, that's two of 105 (15 per tournament times the seven TTs there have been), which is comparable to the 18 players we've seen win four games or more out of the 800-something regular players since the last ToC.

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Re: 2017 ToC Quarter-Final Matches Revealed - Discussion

Post by OntarioQuizzer » Mon Nov 06, 2017 11:15 am

To add to this discussion:

Jason at the $800 and $1000 levels of the board is a net +7.8 clues per game, 3rd best in the entire field after Andrew (+8.4) and Pranjal (+8.0). (The average in this year's field is +6.1.)

At the $200-$600 level, he's net +14.0, 4th in the field after Austin (+15.1), Seth (+14.4), and Hunter (+14.3).

In other words: he's got chops.
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Re: 2017 ToC Quarter-Final Matches Revealed - Discussion

Post by seaborgium » Wed Nov 08, 2017 1:20 pm

I think it's probably already aired somewhere, but as far as QF3 goes, it wouldn't surprise me if Austin won from second place because he wagered big on an FJ that first place got right, but wagered more conservatively on. Of course, that's predicated on Austin actually entering FJ in a trailing position, which I can't assert will happen.

Also:
non-spoiler off-topic stuff about the fake Austin on TwitterShow
I called the fake Austin out yesterday for posting "catch me on #toc Nov. 6th" a few weeks ago, thereby getting Austin's air date wrong before it was officially announced. After an exchange where the fake tried to claim he was deliberately misleading his followers to keep his air date secret, I said that I knew what ToC participants could divulge, having been one myself, and things went south from there as he suddenly felt the need to insult me at every turn after that. But the real Austin got looped in on the conversation early on (by an apologist for the fake Austin whom I suspect to be the person behind the account), and was spurred by the proceedings to report fake Austin, and the account was suspended. Perfect timing!

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Re: 2017 ToC Quarter-Final Matches Revealed - Discussion

Post by zerobandwidth » Wed Nov 08, 2017 1:39 pm

seaborgium wrote:
Wed Nov 08, 2017 1:20 pm
non-spoiler off-topic stuff about the fake Austin on TwitterShow
I called the fake Austin out yesterday for posting "catch me on #toc Nov. 6th" a few weeks ago, thereby getting Austin's air date wrong before it was officially announced. After an exchange where the fake tried to claim he was deliberately misleading his followers to keep his air date secret, I said that I knew what ToC participants could divulge, having been one myself, and things went south from there as he suddenly felt the need to insult me at every turn after that. But the real Austin got looped in on the conversation early on (by an apologist for the fake Austin whom I suspect to be the person behind the account), and was spurred by the proceedings to report fake Austin, and the account was suspended. Perfect timing!
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Re: 2017 ToC Quarter-Final Matches Revealed - Discussion

Post by econgator » Wed Nov 08, 2017 10:23 pm

Looks like only me and zerobandwidth had the correct winner tonight. :)

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Re: 2017 ToC Quarter-Final Matches Revealed - Discussion

Post by zerobandwidth » Wed Nov 08, 2017 11:46 pm

econgator wrote:
Wed Nov 08, 2017 10:23 pm
Looks like only me and zerobandwidth had the correct winner tonight. :)
3/3… I kind of can't believe it.
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Re: 2017 ToC Quarter-Final Matches Revealed - Discussion

Post by Ceruleanveritas » Thu Nov 09, 2017 7:50 am

Does the inclusion of so many tournament(College and Teachers) winners "water down" the competition for you?

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Re: 2017 ToC Quarter-Final Matches Revealed - Discussion

Post by zerobandwidth » Thu Nov 09, 2017 7:57 am

Ceruleanveritas wrote:
Thu Nov 09, 2017 7:50 am
Does the inclusion of so many tournament(College and Teachers) winners "water down" the competition for you?
Not at all. Both College and Teachers' Tournament winners have also claimed ToC titles. I still think Jason has a legitimate shot at this taking this one home.
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Re: 2017 ToC Quarter-Final Matches Revealed - Discussion

Post by Sherm » Thu Nov 09, 2017 12:04 pm

dhkendall wrote:
Sat Nov 04, 2017 11:57 pm
Sherm wrote:
Sat Nov 04, 2017 11:31 pm
The teachers winners get a bad rep, and maybe its deserved. The Powers that be normally ease up on the questions a bit during those tournaments
Cite? I know this “statistic” has been bandied about on here several times, but from personal experience, I find my Coryats and get rates are closer to regular games during the Teachers Tournaments. Since these are picked from the regular pool, and took the regular test, and haven’t proven themselves to be a juggernaut (unlike the people in a TOC), like regular contestants, it makes sense to have them close to regular level.
I've kept track of my coryats on a game by game basis since the beginning of season 29, it means I've had 5 teachers tournaments. I can't say, I've closely looked at all the numbers until your post. I just know that, in general, my scores went up. I just did a little research and comparing the teachers tourny to the 4 weeks that surround it before and after, gives me 10 data points.

The coyrats of the teacher tourny are higher 9 times out of 10. The one time occured after November 2012 tourny (Colby Burnett) and the increase was 1.7%, which is pretty small (not that it would matter too much, but at that time, my coryats where increasing rapidly and that could play into it a little). I've been at a 6% to 8% increase 4 of the 10 times. Overall, my scores goes up with the teachers tourny by just under 5%. It's not a huge amount, but its an increase.

The best single week of coryat score that I've ever had, that was not a celeb, college, teen or kids tourny, was the week of May 8, 2017, which was the first week of the teachers tourny. Also, the week of Nov 11, 2013, the first week of the teacher tourny produced the second highest coryat I had ever had at that time. Either they gear it down a touch, or they feed questions I like just a little bit better.

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Re: 2017 ToC Quarter-Final Matches Revealed - Discussion

Post by zerobandwidth » Thu Nov 09, 2017 12:20 pm

Sherm wrote:
Thu Nov 09, 2017 12:04 pm
The best single week of coryat score that I've ever had, that was not a celeb, college, teen or kids tourny, was the week of May 8, 2017, which was the first week of the teachers tourny. Also, the week of Nov 11, 2013, the first week of the teacher tourny produced the second highest coryat I had ever had at that time. Either they gear it down a touch, or they feed questions I like just a little bit better.
I wonder, might that correlate more closely with a reduction in "trash" trivia for the teachers? That is to say, it might not be a reduction in difficulty overall, but a shift toward questions that are less esoteric / pop-cultured / etc. and more suited to a particular subset of players that includes you.
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Re: 2017 ToC Quarter-Final Matches Revealed - Discussion

Post by Sherm » Thu Nov 09, 2017 12:30 pm

Ceruleanveritas wrote:
Thu Nov 09, 2017 7:50 am
Does the inclusion of so many tournament(College and Teachers) winners "water down" the competition for you?
If you are trying to get the best players, I have a bit of a problem with the college champ. I know that a college guy won it years ago, but I've yet to see a college champ go past the semis, since I've followed it closely, and that is since 2011. I believe Tim Kutz would be a threat to win this thing, if he were in it.

I will say, I pull for college kid (and not just because I thought Erin McLean was attractive, though it didn't hurt in her case), but because I think they are the biggest underdogs. I think Lilly Chin is a really good player coming out of the college tourny, and she might get into the semi's, but she was a little overmatched even in her quarterfinal.

So does it water it down a little? Yes. Does it make for better TV having what is probably a true underdog there? Yes.

How is this for a wild idea? Have a play in game with three tourny winners, while the 14 top money winners go straight in.

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Re: 2017 ToC Quarter-Final Matches Revealed - Discussion

Post by Sherm » Thu Nov 09, 2017 12:34 pm

zerobandwidth wrote:
Thu Nov 09, 2017 12:20 pm

I wonder, might that correlate more closely with a reduction in "trash" trivia for the teachers? That is to say, it might not be a reduction in difficulty overall, but a shift toward questions that are less esoteric / pop-cultured / etc. and more suited to a particular subset of players that includes you.
This is very possible, it would also explain that some people don't think the question are easier, while others (like myself) do.

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Re: 2017 ToC Quarter-Final Matches Revealed - Discussion

Post by OntarioQuizzer » Thu Nov 09, 2017 4:09 pm

Sherm wrote:
Thu Nov 09, 2017 12:30 pm
I think Lilly Chin is a really good player coming out of the college tourny, and she might get into the semi's, but she was a little overmatched even in her quarterfinal.
I don't think we were watching the same game on Tuesday.
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Re: 2017 ToC Quarter-Final Matches Revealed - Discussion

Post by Sherm » Thu Nov 09, 2017 5:26 pm

OntarioQuizzer wrote:
Thu Nov 09, 2017 4:09 pm
Sherm wrote:
Thu Nov 09, 2017 12:30 pm
I think Lilly Chin is a really good player coming out of the college tourny, and she might get into the semi's, but she was a little overmatched even in her quarterfinal.
I don't think we were watching the same game on Tuesday.
Players scores as a percentage of the total coryat in Tuesdays game

Jason Sterlucci .424
Tm Atem .341
Lilly Chin .234

I think she got a pretty raw draw, Sterlucci and Atem are both really good. Give her credit, she made the move she had to make on the daily double, and those are things you need to do when you are a little behind the 8 ball, she was playing from behind most of the game.

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Re: 2017 ToC Quarter-Final Matches Revealed - Discussion

Post by OntarioQuizzer » Thu Nov 09, 2017 5:29 pm

Sterlacci and Aten.
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Re: 2017 ToC Quarter-Final Matches Revealed - Discussion

Post by econgator » Thu Nov 09, 2017 7:50 pm

zerobandwidth wrote:
Wed Nov 08, 2017 11:46 pm
econgator wrote:
Wed Nov 08, 2017 10:23 pm
Looks like only me and zerobandwidth had the correct winner tonight. :)
3/3… I kind of can't believe it.
And ........... it's over. ;)

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