Denny McLain, the AJ Score, and Predicting the 2017 Jeopardy! Tournament of Champions

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dhkendall
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Re: Denny McLain, the AJ Score, and Predicting the 2017 Jeopardy! Tournament of Champions

Post by dhkendall » Mon Nov 06, 2017 6:58 pm

“AJ Score”. I see what you did there, Mr. Alex Jacob!

Nice work, I’m glad there’s an alternative to Coryat for measuring in these type of situations and I think it’ll get a fair bit of use over the coming years, especially from the stat obsessed among us.
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Re: Denny McLain, the AJ Score, and Predicting the 2017 Jeopardy! Tournament of Champions

Post by sarisson » Mon Nov 06, 2017 8:32 pm

I like this a lot. For multiple reasons, but mainly because it's been an extremely accurate predictor of who makes it to the finals.
I came up with a "Jeopardy passer rating" a while ago, where DD's and Finals are analogous to touchdowns, and negs to interceptions, but the AJ Score is better. Can the Archivists add "AJ Score" to the stat pages of TOCers?
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Re: Denny McLain, the AJ Score, and Predicting the 2017 Jeopardy! Tournament of Champions

Post by seaborgium » Mon Nov 06, 2017 11:55 pm

sarisson wrote:
Mon Nov 06, 2017 8:32 pm
Can the Archivists add "AJ Score" to the stat pages of TOCers?
It's already there (for everyone, not just ToCers), as "DJ! score."

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Re: Denny McLain, the AJ Score, and Predicting the 2017 Jeopardy! Tournament of Champions

Post by Cat Hammarskjold » Tue Nov 07, 2017 7:10 am

I really enjoyed this article. The one thing that I thought was missing that I wasn't sure if it belonged or not was bottom-row clue conversion rate. Since the bottom row has a much lower conversion percentage, the expectation value per known clue is much higher, so I was wondering if any of the people who have done Jeopardy! sabermetrics so far has found out how important that is compared to other things.

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Re: Denny McLain, the AJ Score, and Predicting the 2017 Jeopardy! Tournament of Champions

Post by triviawayne » Tue Nov 07, 2017 7:54 am

Cat Hammarskjold wrote:
Tue Nov 07, 2017 7:10 am
I really enjoyed this article. The one thing that I thought was missing that I wasn't sure if it belonged or not was bottom-row clue conversion rate. Since the bottom row has a much lower conversion percentage, the expectation value per known clue is much higher, so I was wondering if any of the people who have done Jeopardy! sabermetrics so far has found out how important that is compared to other things.
With 60% of the value of the board there I tracked my percentage on the $1600 & $2000 clues for a while. Having that information has kept me from several incorrect guesses, so I think it’s important.
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Re: Denny McLain, the AJ Score, and Predicting the 2017 Jeopardy! Tournament of Champions

Post by OntarioQuizzer » Tue Nov 07, 2017 11:58 am

Cat Hammarskjold wrote:
Tue Nov 07, 2017 7:10 am
I really enjoyed this article. The one thing that I thought was missing that I wasn't sure if it belonged or not was bottom-row clue conversion rate. Since the bottom row has a much lower conversion percentage, the expectation value per known clue is much higher, so I was wondering if any of the people who have done Jeopardy! sabermetrics so far has found out how important that is compared to other things.
I've tracked this for the ToCers as part of the "Low-Level Clues, Net" and "High-Level Clues, Net". "Low-Level" is $200, $400, and $600, and "High-Level" is $800 & $1000, my thought being that players who do better at the bottom of the board normally will do better in ToC-level competition. Also, I track it as a net average per game score, so a correct response earns +1 and an incorrect response earns -1.

That said:
11/6 spoiler
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Buzzy yesterday (net 4.6/g on high-level clues in his regular games) may have completely torpedoed that theory.
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