TOC 2017 Semifinals and Finals: Predictions and Discussion [SPOILERS]

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TOC 2017 Semifinals and Finals: Predictions and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by zerobandwidth » Mon Nov 13, 2017 11:25 am

Well, spoilers eventually, I guess.

The official semifinal matchups have been posted:
  • Monday Andrew Pau / Austin Rogers / Lilly Chin
  • Tuesday Buzzy Cohen / Jason Sterlacci / Lisa Schlitt
  • Wednesday Alan Lin / Pranjal Vachaspati / Tim Aten
Last edited by zerobandwidth on Mon Nov 13, 2017 11:42 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: TOC 2017 Semifinals and Finals [SPOILERS]

Post by zerobandwidth » Mon Nov 13, 2017 11:41 am

I almost don't have the heart to make in-depth predictions about how the semis will go, because I would want multiple people from each game to advance. They're also all brilliant players, so it's more difficult to pick a stronger winner among any of them. But here goes. Again, disclaimer: I wasn't there, so these aren't spoilers; they're guesses.
  • M Denied his usually-exclusive access to DDs, because everybody here knows how that works, Austin barely stays even with Andrew, and the match comes down to who gets FJ! and has more money to wager.
  • T Too close to call, but my fictional gambling money is on Jason in a brutally close game that sees all three contestants enter FJ! over $10k.
  • W Alan edges Pranjal on buzzer speed alone, and this one also comes down to whether there's a get/miss in FJ!.
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Re: TOC 2017 Semifinals and Finals: Predictions and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by KenJenningsFan74 » Mon Nov 13, 2017 12:18 pm

What a first semifinal! I'm pleased that I correctly predicted seven of the nine semifinalists, but I'm not as sure who will win them. I'm tempted to take Andrew Pau in game one, but I'll ride with Austin Rogers, my original pick for the $250,000. Jason Sterlacci has as favorable a path to the finals as he was likely to get, but I'll go with Buzzy Cohen in a close game. That third semi is packed, but I'll take Pranjal Vachaspati in another close one, over Alan Lin. The next three days should be exciting.

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Re: TOC 2017 Semifinals and Finals: Predictions and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by RCraig » Mon Nov 13, 2017 12:44 pm

Thank you for posting these, Pasha. I'd been wondering about them.
I've really been enjoying this TOC, lots of great players and games. To me, the semifinals are possibly the most exciting round as there are no wildcards, no two day total point affair, etc. One winner and that's it, just like regular episodes; Jeopardy! at its purest.

I have no predictions, just waiting to see what happens. Looking forward to it!

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Re: TOC 2017 Semifinals and Finals: Predictions and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by MTGcollegestudent » Mon Nov 13, 2017 2:05 pm

Well...knowing for the first game, I just think it comes down to execution. Whoever gets FJ! right and who doesn't make a huge mistake in the game will win this one.

For the second one, Jason could be a favorite because he hasn't made serious mistakes and is one of those "sneak under the radar" kind of players. He's hoping that Lisa and Buzzy fight against each other for incorrect answers and Jason to sneak away and win.

Third, probably a Pranjal .vs. Alan matchup. Tim is way out of his league because he's fighting two guys in their 20s that have a really good knowledge base ((I seriously can't tell how old Tim looks)). Only thing that Alan could hope for is if Pranjal makes a lot of unforced errors, which we have witnessed in his 6-game run. Thereby, resulting Alan to take it. Pranjal's best hope is to not make a lot of errors, which he did in his QF match, and just try to get lucky with the buzzer. Pranjal's 42% on the buzzer, and Alan is close with 37%. Ultimately, it comes down to who wants this more.

Overall, this set of matches should dictate who is really well-focused and really is eyeing on the prize.

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Re: TOC 2017 Semifinals and Finals: Predictions and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by whoisalexjacob » Mon Nov 13, 2017 2:13 pm

As it turns out my predicted finals is still live so I will just repost the link: https://medium.com/@whoisalexjacob/denn ... d36ac0df01

For those not interesting in reading, I have Austin/Jason/Pranjal

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Re: TOC 2017 Semifinals and Finals: Predictions and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by hbomb1947 » Mon Nov 13, 2017 3:21 pm

I'll take my 2 finalist picks who are still around, Andrew and Jason, to win their semis, and Pranjal in the third match. These are some brutally tough matchups for all involved.

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Re: TOC 2017 Semifinals and Finals: Predictions and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by Woof » Mon Nov 13, 2017 3:25 pm

I agree that this looks to be an incredibly exciting series of semifinal matches in which several possible outcomes look quite plausible. It's also noteworthy for having brought some stars (Roger, Alex) out of the woodwork :mrgreen:

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Re: TOC 2017 Semifinals and Finals: Predictions and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by zerobandwidth » Mon Nov 13, 2017 4:46 pm

Andy's too classy to self-promote ;)
TheJeopardyFan: Semifinal Predictions

I like the idea of "if this game could be played 20 times", and would love to have 19 more rounds in the ring with Austin.
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Re: TOC 2017 Semifinals and Finals: Predictions and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by Newhausen » Mon Nov 13, 2017 5:02 pm

MTGcollegestudent wrote:
Mon Nov 13, 2017 2:05 pm
Third, probably a Pranjal .vs. Alan matchup. Tim is way out of his league because he's fighting two guys in their 20s that have a really good knowledge base ((I seriously can't tell how old Tim looks)).
Tim is 36 years old, for whatever that's worth.

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Re: TOC 2017 Semifinals and Finals: Predictions and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by threearruda » Mon Nov 13, 2017 5:03 pm

Yeah these are brutal matchups to predict. I'll stick with Andrew tonight, Jason tomorrow and Alan on Wednesday.. considering how he played last week, it's hard to pick against him. I'll stick with my original prediction of Andrew as the champ come Friday.

I'm sure this stat has probably come up before, but I'll share it anyway: No 10+ game winner has ever won a ToC. Curious to see if that will remain true come the end of the week.. or even this evening.

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Re: TOC 2017 Semifinals and Finals: Predictions and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by dhkendall » Mon Nov 13, 2017 5:31 pm

OK, SF1 starting in a minute or so, so quick prediction:

M: Andrew
T: Jason
W: Alan

Final winner: Jason (second Andrew, third Alan)
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Re: TOC 2017 Semifinals and Finals: Predictions and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by MTGcollegestudent » Mon Nov 13, 2017 5:40 pm

Newhausen wrote:
Mon Nov 13, 2017 5:02 pm
MTGcollegestudent wrote:
Mon Nov 13, 2017 2:05 pm
Third, probably a Pranjal .vs. Alan matchup. Tim is way out of his league because he's fighting two guys in their 20s that have a really good knowledge base ((I seriously can't tell how old Tim looks)).
Tim is 36 years old, for whatever that's worth.
Thanks for telling me. At first, I was perhaps thinking Tim was probably in his 30s, as my first guess...but it probably was something else.

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Re: TOC 2017 Semifinals and Finals [SPOILERS]

Post by CailinGaoilge » Mon Nov 13, 2017 10:05 pm

zerobandwidth wrote:
Mon Nov 13, 2017 11:41 am
I almost don't have the heart to make in-depth predictions about how the semis will go, because I would want multiple people from each game to advance. They're also all brilliant players, so it's more difficult to pick a stronger winner among any of them. But here goes. Again, disclaimer: I wasn't there, so these aren't spoilers; they're guesses.
  • M Denied his usually-exclusive access to DDs, because everybody here knows how that works, Austin barely stays even with Andrew, and the match comes down to who gets FJ! and has more money to wager.
  • T Too close to call, but my fictional gambling money is on Jason in a brutally close game that sees all three contestants enter FJ! over $10k.
  • W Alan edges Pranjal on buzzer speed alone, and this one also comes down to whether there's a get/miss in FJ!.
Okay, are you psychic or what? Three out of five very close predictions in the QFs, and now SF1... :o :o :o :o

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Re: TOC 2017 Semifinals and Finals [SPOILERS]

Post by zerobandwidth » Mon Nov 13, 2017 10:20 pm

CailinGaoilge wrote:
Mon Nov 13, 2017 10:05 pm
zerobandwidth wrote:
Mon Nov 13, 2017 11:41 am
  • M Denied his usually-exclusive access to DDs, because everybody here knows how that works, Austin barely stays even with Andrew, and the match comes down to who gets FJ! and has more money to wager.
Okay, are you psychic or what? Three out of five very close predictions in the QFs, and now SF1... :o :o :o :o
Apparently I know people who play trivia games better than I knew the trivia. It gives me high hopes for my defensive strategy in LL. Of course all I have to do then is look at my usual TDD standings and... meh.
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Re: TOC 2017 Semifinals and Finals: Predictions and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by Kenny » Tue Nov 14, 2017 12:26 am

I'm going with Lisa to win the whole enchilada because she is such a cool cucumber and her knowledge of millennial pop culture is nonpareil, and I'm certain one of those will come up as a FJ category in the finals. J! writers love pop culture.

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Re: TOC 2017 Semifinals and Finals: Predictions and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by zdude69closedrofl » Tue Nov 14, 2017 1:27 am

Not gonna lie, I'm rooting for Lisa to win tomorrow even though I feel that Buzzy and Jason both have better chances (Jason slightly the most favored). I expect Alan to win Wednesday, but I'll also be rooting for Tim.

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Re: TOC 2017 Semifinals and Finals: Predictions and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by reddpen » Tue Nov 14, 2017 1:50 am

whoisalexjacob wrote:
Mon Nov 13, 2017 2:13 pm
As it turns out my predicted finals is still live so I will just repost the link: https://medium.com/@whoisalexjacob/denn ... d36ac0df01

For those not interesting in reading, I have Austin/Jason/Pranjal
So is it just coincidence your new metric uses your initials? Have a beer, pal. I'll crack one too--time I finish reading your post, I'mma need another.

ETA: That's great work, Alex. Well reasoned and written, grammatically almost flawless (move the paren after "spoiler-free" inside the period is all I noticed on a quick read), and a Brooks Robinson mention to boot. Should be fascinating to see how your analysis plays out.

I now return to my regularly scheduled LL obsession, already in progress.

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Re: TOC 2017 Semifinals and Finals: Predictions and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by zdude69closedrofl » Thu Nov 16, 2017 3:28 pm

45% Alan, 35% Buzzy, 20% Austin. In my opinion. I'll be rooting for Austin.

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Re: TOC 2017 Semifinals and Finals: Predictions and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by dhkendall » Thu Nov 16, 2017 3:38 pm

I keep underestimating Alan (because I don’t remember his games as well as many of the others), so I’ll withhold a Finals prediction because my brain is still telling me it’s either Buzzy or Austin because I keep forgetting or dismissing Alan where, from the QFs and SFs, I really shouldn’t.
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