Thursday, November 16, 2017 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

[hbomb1947]

Kind of late weighing in, but I enjoyed the game, it was great to see all 3 players having fun despite the high stakes, and I like that the outcome of the finals is still very much in doubt. And who would have thought that Austin would land on 2 DD's and yet be trailing after part 1 -- in part, because he missed an FJ for only the second time in his 16 games? Unpredictability has been a constant in this tourney.

I'm mad at myself for crossing out iPhone like Austin did. I knew that the iPhone came out in 2007, but I reasoned that it wasn't the first smartphone, so how could it be an "invention"? So I switched to the iPod (not the iPad), even though I thought that MP3-playing product probably came out a bit earlier (2001, it turns out).

My lach trash: poultice; Jane Fonda; Matewan; Air Supply; Willie Nelson & Julio Iglesias.

Looking forward to tonight's finale of what has been an outstanding TOC.

[BigDaddyMatty]

Coryat: $37,200
44 R/3 W
DD: 3/3
FJ:
LT: Colby, skittles, poultice, tender fender-bender, (brown clown down), Air Supply, Kalamata (DD), Wille Nelson/Julio Iglesias

This was pretty much my dream TOC final. No classical music/art/Shakespeare/royalty and a DJ! round with *two* wordplay categories and '80s pop music. I'm also glad I didn't have time to change my FJ! response. Were the Think Music five seconds longer, I would have done what Austin did.

I had to chuckle during the J! round at the unintentional(?) shout-outs to past TOC winners. There was a clue about Ben Ingram's obsession, bridge, one about Alex Jacob's former profession of poker, and one that was simply Colby.

I think Austin made a huge strategic blunder by not going all in on the $800 Triple Rhyme Time DD. Given the extra time to think, I'd give a TOC-level competitor a 95%+ chance of converting that one.

[John Boy]

I thought IPhone was the very obvious answer, and the easiest FJ so far this week. I do wonder if we benefit from some recent 10th anniversary publicity that might not have been around when this was filmed.

I can't imagine that I would have gotten this from "invention of the year" and the description of the product alone, omitting the mention of 2007. The ONLY way was by thinking of all the publicity this year about the 10th anniversary of the roll-out. That made me think of I-phone, and even then I could barely believe that was the right answer.

Fortunately I had nothing else and stayed with it, so I got a TS in FJ in the ToC finals. (YAY)

[opusthepenguin]

A lot of posters are mentioning the 10th anniversary hype for the iPhone. Would this line of thinking have been available to the players? Or did the hoopla start after the game was taped?

[MarkBarrett]

In the mail today was my latest issue of Time. The cover? The 25 Best Inventions of 2017 with Jibo, the pet robot on the cover.

[Bamaman]

Due to work and other real life irritations, I wasn't able to see the game until just now. So I turned on my DVR and saw the first segment was pre-empted on my local station so they could carry a Roy Moore press conference. Now I'm definitely not voting for him. Thanks to the reddit guy for saving me.

A few observations...

I got FJ!!!

I think Buzzy did the right thing in betting it all in FJ. He was way behind and faced the possibility of Alan having over $28,000 going into tomorrow. (Or yesterday, from my perspective). Interesting Alan bet for a possible tie.

Austin should have been negged right away on the rhyme category. Yes, they are pretty strict on the rhymes about making it possessive/plural.

They generally don't require a number for popes. To be honest, I couldn't specifically name any popes by number prior to John XXIII.

I got Air Supply and Nelson/Iglessius. It helps to be old.

I also said transsexual. I never knew the movement had an official name. I have heard both over the years though transgender is what I mostly hear now.

The game wasn't as good as I expected from these three. Hopefully, the final game will be better. Hopefully, the whole thing recorded.

[jeff6286]

Wait wait wait wait wait wait wait wait wait wait wait wait wait



NOW you're not voting for Roy Moore?

[Bamaman]

Wait wait wait wait wait wait wait wait wait wait wait wait wait



NOW you're not voting for Roy Moore?

I did not vote for him when he ran for Chief Justice. I did not vote for him either time he ran for governor. I did not vote for him in the primary or runoff. I wasn’t going to vote for him next month before I found out his favorite Jeopardy player was Jerry Slowik.

[zerobandwidth]

Wait wait wait wait wait wait wait wait wait wait wait wait wait
NOW you're not voting for Roy Moore?

I did not vote for him when he ran for Chief Justice. I did not vote for him either time he ran for governor. I did not vote for him in the primary or runoff. I wasn’t going to vote for him next month before I found out his favorite Jeopardy player was Jerry Slowik.

I WILL NOT VOTE HIM HERE OR THERE
I WILL NOT VOTE HIM ANYWHERE
I DO NOT LIKE PERVS ON THE LAM
I DO NOT LIKE THEM, SAM-I-AM

[The Talking Mime]

Wait wait wait wait wait wait wait wait wait wait wait wait wait
NOW you're not voting for Roy Moore?

I did not vote for him when he ran for Chief Justice. I did not vote for him either time he ran for governor. I did not vote for him in the primary or runoff. I wasn’t going to vote for him next month before I found out his favorite Jeopardy player was Jerry Slowik.

I WILL NOT VOTE HIM HERE OR THERE
I WILL NOT VOTE HIM ANYWHERE
I DO NOT LIKE PERVS ON THE LAM
I DO NOT LIKE THEM, SAM-I-AM

Well, there's my laugh for the day.

[Golf]

Barring endgame scenarios, if a contestant is 50%+ sure of their answer, shouldn't they ring in?

If you get it right, you win the clue value. Get it wrong and you lose the value.

So a 50/50 guess has an expected value of zero. Half the time you win, half you lose. Averaged out, that's zero.

But you need to add in the fact that missing a question gives the other players both additional time to think of an answer plus knowledge of one wrong answer.

So you need to be considerably more sure than 50/50 before ringing in.

OK, let's say 52%.

If you neg there are at least four possibilities. 1, one of your opponents already knew the answer and will collect but had you not rang in they would have gotten it anyway. So no harm done. 2, your opponents given an extra couple of seconds still will not know the answer. Ask yourself how many more clues you get given 2-3 addition seconds. 3, one of your opponents will magically tumble to the answer in those 2-3 seconds. Not happening often. 4, after your neg an opponent will then loosen up and attempt an incorrect guess of their own. For whatever reason this happens a lot, he guessed so why shouldn't I?

Naturally there is a small set of questions where this doesn't apply, those with multiple choice answers for one. But no, you don't need to be considerably more sure than 50/50 in most circumstances.

[Volante]

Barring endgame scenarios, if a contestant is 50%+ sure of their answer, shouldn't they ring in?

If you get it right, you win the clue value. Get it wrong and you lose the value.

So a 50/50 guess has an expected value of zero. Half the time you win, half you lose. Averaged out, that's zero.

But you need to add in the fact that missing a question gives the other players both additional time to think of an answer plus knowledge of one wrong answer.

So you need to be considerably more sure than 50/50 before ringing in.

OK, let's say 52%.

If you neg there are at least four possibilities. 1, one of your opponents already knew the answer and will collect but had you not rang in they would have gotten it anyway. So no harm done. 2, your opponents given an extra couple of seconds still will not know the answer. Ask yourself how many more clues you get given 2-3 addition seconds. 3, one of your opponents will magically tumble to the answer in those 2-3 seconds. Not happening often. 4, after your neg an opponent will then loosen up and attempt an incorrect guess of their own. For whatever reason this happens a lot, he guessed so why shouldn't I?

Naturally there is a small set of questions where this doesn't apply, those with multiple choice answers for one. But no, you don't need to be considerably more sure than 50/50 in most circumstances.

And yet people still go to casinos...

[alietr]

If you neg there are at least four possibilities. 1, one of your opponents already knew the answer and will collect but had you not rang in they would have gotten it anyway. So no harm done. 2, your opponents given an extra couple of seconds still will not know the answer. Ask yourself how many more clues you get given 2-3 addition seconds. 3, one of your opponents will magically tumble to the answer in those 2-3 seconds. Not happening often. 4, after your neg an opponent will then loosen up and attempt an incorrect guess of their own. For whatever reason this happens a lot, he guessed so why shouldn't I?

You left out the most important one which makes #3 occur a lot more than you're indicating -- you go the wrong way on a 50/50/90 and your opponent has an easy layup with the other 50 (or is it 10?)

[jeff6286]

If you neg there are at least four possibilities. 1, one of your opponents already knew the answer and will collect but had you not rang in they would have gotten it anyway. So no harm done. 2, your opponents given an extra couple of seconds still will not know the answer. Ask yourself how many more clues you get given 2-3 addition seconds. 3, one of your opponents will magically tumble to the answer in those 2-3 seconds. Not happening often. 4, after your neg an opponent will then loosen up and attempt an incorrect guess of their own. For whatever reason this happens a lot, he guessed so why shouldn't I?

You left out the most important one which makes #3 occur a lot more than you're indicating -- you go the wrong way on a 50/50/90 and your opponent has an easy layup with the other 50 (or is it 10?)

He didn't leave it out at all, it's mentioned the part of his post you trimmed when you quoted.