Monday, December 11, 2017 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

[Leah]

Those of you who are old enough may remember that I know nothing about betting. So please explain Charlie's FJ bet to me. Thank you.

[badgerfellow]

Those of you who are old enough may remember that I know nothing about betting. So please explain Charlie's FJ bet to me. Thank you.

The only way Charlie can win is if LaKedra gets Final incorrect. Assuming she wagers to cover Charlie, which she did, an incorrect response would bring her score down to 23000-1801 = $21,199. Charlie must then wager to get to at least $21,200...equates to an $8800 wager (12,400 + 8,800).

[Peter the accountant]

R: 22, W: 1, costing 800.
FJ:
Coryat: 16,600
LT: Kamchatka (thank you, Risk!)

Probably should have been more aggressive in my guessing. Let several questions go without a formal response where I was thinking of the right answer.

FJ was definitely a WECIB for me. I'm not that good at Eastern philosophy/religion. But the Taiji part of the clue sounds a lot like Tai Chi, which I've at least heard of (and even tried very briefly). And a pair of things that are opposites (thank you, art classes from way back for teaching me the color wheel) lead me to the correct response. Just for fun, I did a google image search and the overwhelming majority of the time the symbol was in black and white. Orange and blue was there a couple of times. The only other thought that came to mind was something with Mars and Venus, which I quickly eliminated based on those already coming up in the J! round.

The players were all over these boards today. I counted only 3 triple stumpers (plus the two wrong DD responses). That also speeds up the game play, with plenty of time to get to all 60 questions. And it showed in their combined Coryats.

Charlie's wager didn't jibe with my figures. If LaKedra wagers appropriately, she'll have 21,200 left after a wrong answer. Charlie would need to wager 8800 to win if he's right and LaKedra isn't. But that still leaves him short if she wagers nothing. Charlie basically has two ways to win - get it right while LaKedra gets it wrong, or get it right when LaKedra wagers nothing (or anything less than 1801). He can't get it wrong and win with any non-Clavin wager by LaKedra. In that situation, I'd go all in to win with as much as possible. A wrong answer with the minimum defensible wager (8800) would still leave him at risk of falling to 3rd place, depending on what Ben does. Besides, the point is to wager to win, not to wager for second place (unless it's a lock and winning is completely off the table.)

[Leah]

Those of you who are old enough may remember that I know nothing about betting. So please explain Charlie's FJ bet to me. Thank you.

The only way Charlie can win is if LaKedra gets Final incorrect. Assuming she wagers to cover Charlie, which she did, an incorrect response would bring her score down to 23000-1801 = $21,199. Charlie must then wager to get to at least $21,200...equates to an $8800 wager (12,400 + 8,800).

Well, that makes sense. I'm lucky my lack of nuance in these matters wasn't what got me in trouble.

[AndyTheQuizzer]

Those of you who are old enough may remember that I know nothing about betting. So please explain Charlie's FJ bet to me. Thank you.

The only way Charlie can win is if LaKedra gets Final incorrect. Assuming she wagers to cover Charlie, which she did, an incorrect response would bring her score down to 23000-1801 = $21,199. Charlie must then wager to get to at least $21,200...equates to an $8800 wager (12,400 + 8,800).

Moreover, this is a good choice by Charlie to only bet up to $21,200, because of what might happen if he gets Final Jeopardy! wrong. If he just bets the $8,800, he only falls to $3,600 if he's incorrect -- meaning that Ben would have to get Final right in order to beat him (instead of with a larger wager where he might fall below Ben's pre-Final Jeopardy! score of $2,800).

[hscer]

If I had to guess why they put the colors into the clue: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flag_of_South_Korea
Not the same shades (and not the same symbol?), but close enough.

[seaborgium]

I immediately thought yin and yang upon seeing "pair," but "orange and azure" made me reconsider, and I switched to the sun and the moon, figuring that Taiji must be the ancient symbol that made the clue relevant to the category.

[Golf]

The only way Charlie can win is if LaKedra gets Final incorrect. Assuming she wagers to cover Charlie, which she did, an incorrect response would bring her score down to 23000-1801 = $21,199. Charlie must then wager to get to at least $21,200...equates to an $8800 wager (12,400 + 8,800).

Moreover, this is a good choice by Charlie to only bet up to $21,200, because of what might happen if he gets Final Jeopardy! wrong. If he just bets the $8,800, he only falls to $3,600 if he's incorrect -- meaning that Ben would have to get Final right in order to beat him (instead of with a larger wager where he might fall below Ben's pre-Final Jeopardy! score of $2,800).

You're right of course about protecting 2nd place, but it does come at the cost of reducing his winning chances. What if the leader offers the tie? What if they screw up the math? What if they wager $0? Personally, I'm not willing to reduce my winning chances to increase my chances at an extra $1k. But there are probably some out there that are financially burdened by making the trip who would not agree.

[AndyTheQuizzer]

Charlie's wager didn't jibe with my figures. If LaKedra wagers appropriately, she'll have 21,200 left after a wrong answer. Charlie would need to wager 8800 to win if he's right and LaKedra isn't. But that still leaves him short if she wagers nothing. Charlie basically has two ways to win - get it right while LaKedra gets it wrong, or get it right when LaKedra wagers nothing (or anything less than 1801). He can't get it wrong and win with any non-Clavin wager by LaKedra. In that situation, I'd go all in to win with as much as possible. A wrong answer with the minimum defensible wager (8800) would still leave him at risk of falling to 3rd place, depending on what Ben does. Besides, the point is to wager to win, not to wager for second place (unless it's a lock and winning is completely off the table.)

Since October 4, 2004, the leader has been in a crush position with 3rd out of contention 330 times. The leader has failed to cover exactly 4 times in 330. That's as safe a thing as you're ever going to see in Jeopardy!

Moreover, the difference here is that a wager of $8,800 vs. $10,601 crosses the threshold of what Ben's score is going into Final Jeopardy, which, effectively, is the difference between a crush and two-thirds in the battle for second place and that extra $1,000. Assuming Ben wagers rationally (i.e. between $801 and $999), the difference for Charlie here is in the neighbourhood of 25 to 30% greater that he'll finish in second place.

Thus, Charlie's chances of winning are just near identical at the top end, with a significantly greater chance of 2nd place on the bottom end.

His bet was in the optimum range.

[AndyTheQuizzer]

What if the leader offers the tie?

Since the tiebreaker rule has come into effect, this has happened exactly once when the numbers were even hundreds.

What if they screw up the math? What if they wager $0? Personally, I'm not willing to reduce my winning chances to increase my chances at an extra $1k. But there are probably some out there that are financially burdened by making the trip who would not agree.

I've posted the numbers already. The extra 1.2% chance that the leader doesn't actually cover here isn't worth the 30% chance at the extra $1,000 on the other side.

[BobF]

The great ultimate? I started thinking along the lines of frisbee, but eventually did get to yin and yang.

[xxaaaxx]

If I had to guess why they put the colors into the clue: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flag_of_South_Korea
Not the same shades (and not the same symbol?), but close enough.

I've seen that flag a thousand times and somehow it never clicked that it was (or was similar to) a yin yang symbol. Yeesh. I'm just gonna got sit in the corner

Since October 4, 2004, the leader has been in a crush position with 3rd out of contention 330 times. The leader has failed to cover exactly 4 times in 330.

Link to those four games please? I guess I shouldn't be surprised that the number isn't zero, but still...

[AndyTheQuizzer]

I've posted the numbers already. The extra 1.2% chance that the leader doesn't actually cover here isn't worth the 30% chance at the extra $1,000 on the other side.

Moreover, the chance of that 1.2% actually mattering? 0.228%. So, in order for that to be worth the extra $300 on the down side, the win has to be worth $131,579 for it to be worth going all-in for. (Even one's 5th win is just worth $51,652 in extra winnings, on average, for the record.)

[MattKnowles]

38R which is a good game for me. Got yin and yang with a guess and no other clue for what it could be. Got Kamchatka and Carrie Nation but missed "She Persistent."

I got exactly 3 right in every category in the Jeopardy round which seems noteworthy for some reason. Ran the peninsula category. I would have run the acid category except I said "hydrosulfuric acid" instead of "sulfuric acid" which are definitely different things.

I missed Rothko and said Mondrian, now maybe I'll remember who Rothko is. I mixed up Frank Lloyd Wright and Frank Gehry again. I'm keeping a running list of things I get confused and those pesky architects are definitely on it.

I couldn't pull appeasement in time. Next time maybe. Missed Norman Rockwell and said Andy Warhol. Missed Freddie Mercury and tried to pull Bruno Mars but somehow said Mars Volta.

I thought Northern Ireland was wrong as a response but after re-reading the clue it said "U.K. Country" which really confuses me because I'm having trouble thinking of Northern Ireland as a country.

Thanks for archiving the show so fast it's nice for me to be able to review it right away. Appreciated, thank you.

If I get on the show I hope I play against easier opponents.

And playing Civ V would've helped on FJ.
check this out red and blue yin-yang

If I had to guess why they put the colors into the clue: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flag_of_South_Korea
Not the same shades (and not the same symbol?), but close enough.

OOOOOHHhhh. Now that makes sense. Thanks!

If I had an ounce of artistic talent I'd photoshop a picture of Whoopi as Data. I know not everyone watched TNG but that WAG was extra desperate.

I'll take a shot at it...

Spoiler

[AndyTheQuizzer]

If I had to guess why they put the colors into the clue: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flag_of_South_Korea
Not the same shades (and not the same symbol?), but close enough.

I've seen that flag a thousand times and somehow it never clicked that it was (or was similar to) a yin yang symbol. Yeesh. I'm just gonna got sit in the corner

Since October 4, 2004, the leader has been in a crush position with 3rd out of contention 330 times. The leader has failed to cover exactly 4 times in 330.

Link to those four games please? I guess I shouldn't be surprised that the number isn't zero, but still...

http://www.j-archive.com/showgame.php?game_id=4985
http://www.j-archive.com/showgame.php?game_id=4845
http://www.j-archive.com/showgame.php?game_id=3673
and your fourth, the tie that was bet since the tiebreaker rule went into effect where the numbers were still in the hundreds: http://www.j-archive.com/showgame.php?game_id=5711

[Volante]

I mixed up Frank Lloyd Wright and Frank Gehry again. I'm keeping a running list of things I get confused and those pesky architects are definitely on it.

Wright makes buildings right. Gehry makes buildings scary.

[xxaaaxx]

http://www.j-archive.com/showgame.php?game_id=4985
http://www.j-archive.com/showgame.php?game_id=4845
http://www.j-archive.com/showgame.php?game_id=3673
and your fourth, the tie that was bet since the tiebreaker rule went into effect where the numbers were still in the hundreds: http://www.j-archive.com/showgame.php?game_id=5711

Thanks. One of them looks like a simple math error, the other two...¯\_(ツ)_/¯. In that last linked game, Trevor did bet to cover (needed to wager 2201, bet 2400) so it looks like that scenario is even rarer.

[MattKnowles]

I mixed up Frank Lloyd Wright and Frank Gehry again. I'm keeping a running list of things I get confused and those pesky architects are definitely on it.

Wright makes buildings right. Gehry makes buildings scary.

Did you just come up with that right now? It's very helpful. Thank you.

[threearruda]

38 R for me .. could've easily been more if I had time to look through that colorful book about Art I bought that's doing a lot of good sitting on my desk right now.

Had yin/yang down quickly with about 85% confidence. Didn't immediately recognize the symbol as orange and blue, but it made sense as I thought about it after.

Great game by LaKedra, hoping to see a lot more from her this week!

[This Is Kirk!]

If I had to guess why they put the colors into the clue: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flag_of_South_Korea
Not the same shades (and not the same symbol?), but close enough.

That was the only thing that gave me (slight) pause. I've always thought of the South Korean flag yin and yang symbol as being red and blue. It sure doesn't look like orange to my eye.