Thursday, December 21, 2017 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

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BigDaddyMatty
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Re: Thursday, December 21, 2017 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by BigDaddyMatty »

morbeedo wrote: Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:13 amNHO CREEP or GOAT in those contexts
CREEP: Committee to Re-Elect the President
GOAT: Greatest of All Time
TenPoundHammer wrote: Fri Dec 22, 2017 12:42 pm Has anyone ever heard of "bark" on barbecued meat before? That one was a real head scratcher
It's a fairly common term in barbecue circles, particularly with respect to brisket. I'm not sure I had heard it before I moved to Texas, though.
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Re: Thursday, December 21, 2017 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by badgerfellow »

davey wrote: Thu Dec 21, 2017 10:25 pm
badgerfellow wrote: Thu Dec 21, 2017 8:10 pm
floridagator wrote: Thu Dec 21, 2017 7:47 pm
For the ecumenical conference clue I said Vatican II. Judges?
I think Vatican council was actually the intended answer. Looks like there may have been some debate among the judges on the given response that was edited out.
But would the word "council" be required? I wasn't able to decide for myself if Vatican II was good enough, since the clue specified it was second and I doubt they'd have accepted just Vatican...
I think in some form "council" would be required. That said, Vatican II might be accepted as it's the colloquial term for "Second Vatican Council." Anyone have the wording on this clue?
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Re: Thursday, December 21, 2017 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by Peter the accountant »

TenPoundHammer wrote: Fri Dec 22, 2017 12:42 pm Has anyone ever heard of "bark" on barbecued meat before? That one was a real head scratcher
Add me to the list of those who didn't need the tree reference to get "bark".

What was annoying is that they didn't show a picture of what I would call bark. That photo was more grill marks than bark. Bark is the slightly crunchy exterior of the meat that has been in a low oven for a long time (measured in hours). The photo showed classic grill marks from putting the meat on a very hot grill for a fairly short time (just a few minutes).
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Re: Thursday, December 21, 2017 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by heppm01 »

I've always used (and heard) bark in reference to the end result of the rub that has been applied to a piece of meat to be barbecued (not grilled). I don't think you can have bark without having a rub. I agree that what they showed was clearly just grill marks, or char marks, and definitely not bark.
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Re: Thursday, December 21, 2017 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by MattKnowles »

I hadn't heard of bark on bbq before but I got the clue from the tree hint. I'm always happy for the opportunity to learn something new.

morbeedo wrote: Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:13 am Someone tell me, what was Johnny's optimal wager on that late round DD? Assuming a miss, would he want to be left with 1/2 of 2nd place's score or the difference between 1st and 2nd? Or something else? I would have gone big on that category, and it would have paid off... but I still would have lost ;)
Johnny had 10800 and the other two contestants had 13200 and 11000. There were 2800 dollars of clues left on the board but there was no time left and effectively there were 0 dollars of clues left on the board. I'm using 0 for the analysis.

I made a DD calculator a while back. It doesn't seem to be working correctly so I'll just go through the scenarios without it.
Spoiler
If I plug the numbers into the calculator it gives me these chances of winning based on certain bets.

0-199 = 29% chance of winning
200-2399 = 23%
2400-4200 = 43%
4201-5300 = 36%
5301-8999 = 33%
9000-10800 = 46%

These numbers aren't correct and I don't feel like debugging it right now. It looks like there is a problem with not giving him a chance to win on an incorrect response with a moderate bet. I tried to fix it and reran the numbers but I have little confidence that I'm doing this correctly right now.
He can't put himself into a lock game scenario. If he bets 9000 or more he can put himself into a crush scenario which gives him the best chance of winning. He is out of the game if he gets it wrong though.

With first and second place at 13200 and 11000 there is a crush scenario and second place can bet 0 dollars to win the game on a miss if third place is not a factor.

If he bets 5300 or more he drops to 5500 and he can no longer cover second place. He can bet between 2400 and 5300 to take the lead without dropping him out of contention.

If he bets less than 2400 he doesn't take the lead and he is still trailing in a close game going into final jeopardy.

If he bets between 2400 and 5300 he can take the lead and if he misses he is still in a position to win by luck.

If he bets between 5300 and 9000 he can take the lead but he is out of the game if he misses.

If he bets more than 9000 he takes the lead and has a crush game.

His best wager is to bet more than 9000. A close second bet is to wager between 2400 and 5300.

His chances of winning are pretty uniform regardless of what he bets. His bet isn't really that important in this scenario.

Also: None of the above analysis matters at all because Kate had established a pattern of betting everything regardless of the scenario. If you assume Kate is going to bet everything you should bet between 2400 and 8600 to try to take the lead but leave yourself with a win off of a triple stumper if you miss the DD.
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Re: Thursday, December 21, 2017 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by Volante »

MattKnowles wrote: Fri Dec 22, 2017 8:22 pm Also: None of the above analysis matters at all because Kate had established a pattern of betting everything regardless of the scenario. If you assume Kate is going to bet everything you should bet between 2400 and 8600 to try to take the lead but leave yourself with a win off of a triple stumper if you miss the DD.
I don't think Johnny would have been aware of Kate's past betting history.

Aren't contestants sequestered until they get called up, or is that just for tourneys?
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Re: Thursday, December 21, 2017 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by MattKnowles »

Volante wrote: Fri Dec 22, 2017 8:31 pm
MattKnowles wrote: Fri Dec 22, 2017 8:22 pm Also: None of the above analysis matters at all because Kate had established a pattern of betting everything regardless of the scenario. If you assume Kate is going to bet everything you should bet between 2400 and 8600 to try to take the lead but leave yourself with a win off of a triple stumper if you miss the DD.
I don't think Johnny would have been aware of Kate's past betting history.

Aren't contestants sequestered until they get called up, or is that just for tourneys?
I believe they do watch the games as they are played live that same day. So if you're playing on "Friday" you will have had a chance to watch all the contestants from Monday through Thursday since they are all filmed the same day. I know one guy that lost to Alan Lin during the regular season run did a question and answer session on Reddit and he mentioned that they were all scared of Alan once he got going. I'm pretty sure I've read a few other comments that implied they get to watch the games before they're called in to play.

Somebody who has had a chance to go on the show will surely confirm the correct answer but I'm pretty sure they're only sequestered for tourneys.
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Re: Thursday, December 21, 2017 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by DBear »

totally derped the FJ, thinking of John Houseman's "They make money the old fashioned way,,,they earn it" :facepalm:
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Re: Thursday, December 21, 2017 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by badgerfellow »

MattKnowles wrote: Fri Dec 22, 2017 8:37 pm
Volante wrote: Fri Dec 22, 2017 8:31 pm
MattKnowles wrote: Fri Dec 22, 2017 8:22 pm Also: None of the above analysis matters at all because Kate had established a pattern of betting everything regardless of the scenario. If you assume Kate is going to bet everything you should bet between 2400 and 8600 to try to take the lead but leave yourself with a win off of a triple stumper if you miss the DD.
I don't think Johnny would have been aware of Kate's past betting history.

Aren't contestants sequestered until they get called up, or is that just for tourneys?
I believe they do watch the games as they are played live that same day. So if you're playing on "Friday" you will have had a chance to watch all the contestants from Monday through Thursday since they are all filmed the same day. I know one guy that lost to Alan Lin during the regular season run did a question and answer session on Reddit and he mentioned that they were all scared of Alan once he got going. I'm pretty sure I've read a few other comments that implied they get to watch the games before they're called in to play.

Somebody who has had a chance to go on the show will surely confirm the correct answer but I'm pretty sure they're only sequestered for tourneys.
Correct, there is no sequestering of players for regular games.
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Re: Thursday, December 21, 2017 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by Bamaman »

Are you able to see all of the game before yours or are they busy getting prepped?
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Re: Thursday, December 21, 2017 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by This Is Kirk! »

Bamaman wrote: Fri Dec 22, 2017 9:35 pm Are you able to see all of the game before yours or are they busy getting prepped?
Yes all the contestants for that day's (i.e. week's) game are sitting in the audience.
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Re: Thursday, December 21, 2017 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by opusthepenguin »

This Is Kirk! wrote: Sat Dec 23, 2017 12:19 am
Bamaman wrote: Fri Dec 22, 2017 9:35 pm Are you able to see all of the game before yours or are they busy getting prepped?
Yes all the contestants for that day's (i.e. week's) game are sitting in the audience.
So if you're playing in the next game, they don't tell you until the current game is concluded?
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Re: Thursday, December 21, 2017 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by alietr »

opusthepenguin wrote: Sat Dec 23, 2017 6:14 am
This Is Kirk! wrote: Sat Dec 23, 2017 12:19 am
Bamaman wrote: Fri Dec 22, 2017 9:35 pm Are you able to see all of the game before yours or are they busy getting prepped?
Yes all the contestants for that day's (i.e. week's) game are sitting in the audience.
So if you're playing in the next game, they don't tell you until the current game is concluded?
Correct. They choose the next challengers at the conclusion of the previous game.
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Re: Thursday, December 21, 2017 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by jeff6286 »

Is this like we’re pretending it’s day 1 of jboard again and no one knows anything about what happens in the studio?
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Re: Thursday, December 21, 2017 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by MarkBarrett »

jeff6286 wrote: Sat Dec 23, 2017 8:23 am Is this like we’re pretending it’s day 1 of jboard again and no one knows anything about what happens in the studio?
Wait, what? They tape five games in one day?

***********
I played in a Thursday game and did not know until after lunch when I was was back in the studio with the other remaining players in the pool that I was up next. There was another round of practice game play, (this time with the audience in place, unlike the morning practice) so that is a benefit of being drawn later in the day.
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Re: Thursday, December 21, 2017 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by Volante »

jeff6286 wrote: Sat Dec 23, 2017 8:23 am Is this like we’re pretending it’s day 1 of jboard again and no one knows anything about what happens in the studio?
I remember reading that tourney players are sequestered. If I remembered reading that regular players aren't, I wouldn't have asked!
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Re: Thursday, December 21, 2017 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by opusthepenguin »

Volante wrote: Sat Dec 23, 2017 11:00 am
jeff6286 wrote: Sat Dec 23, 2017 8:23 am Is this like we’re pretending it’s day 1 of jboard again and no one knows anything about what happens in the studio?
I remember reading that tourney players are sequestered. If I remembered reading that regular players aren't, I wouldn't have asked!
You're supposed to do your due diligence by re-reading every post ever made to make sure your question hasn't been answered.
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Re: Thursday, December 21, 2017 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by Bamaman »

BigDaddyMatty wrote: Fri Dec 22, 2017 1:15 pm
morbeedo wrote: Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:13 amNHO CREEP or GOAT in those contexts
CREEP: Committee to Re-Elect the President
GOAT: Greatest of All Time
TenPoundHammer wrote: Fri Dec 22, 2017 12:42 pm Has anyone ever heard of "bark" on barbecued meat before? That one was a real head scratcher
It's a fairly common term in barbecue circles, particularly with respect to brisket. I'm not sure I had heard it before I moved to Texas, though.
Did CREEP actually call themselves that or did it arise as a pejorative term during the Watergate scandal?
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Re: Thursday, December 21, 2017 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by TenPoundHammer »

I had heard of CREEP because it was one of those "we're going to break the rules of acronyms" things that always bothered me.
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Re: Thursday, December 21, 2017 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by This Is Kirk! »

TenPoundHammer wrote: Sat Dec 23, 2017 11:49 am I had heard of CREEP because it was one of those "we're going to break the rules of acronyms" things that always bothered me.
It sounds like an organization that should be in a James Bond movie.
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