I hadn't heard of bark on bbq before but I got the clue from the tree hint. I'm always happy for the opportunity to learn something new.
morbeedo wrote: ↑Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:13 am
Someone tell me, what was Johnny's optimal wager on that late round DD? Assuming a miss, would he want to be left with 1/2 of 2nd place's score or the difference between 1st and 2nd? Or something else? I would have gone big on that category, and it would have paid off... but I still would have lost
Johnny had 10800 and the other two contestants had 13200 and 11000. There were 2800 dollars of clues left on the board but there was no time left and effectively there were 0 dollars of clues left on the board. I'm using 0 for the analysis.
I made a DD calculator a while back. It doesn't seem to be working correctly so I'll just go through the scenarios without it.
If I plug the numbers into the calculator it gives me these chances of winning based on certain bets.
0-199 = 29% chance of winning
200-2399 = 23%
2400-4200 = 43%
4201-5300 = 36%
5301-8999 = 33%
9000-10800 = 46%
These numbers aren't correct and I don't feel like debugging it right now. It looks like there is a problem with not giving him a chance to win on an incorrect response with a moderate bet. I tried to fix it and reran the numbers but I have little confidence that I'm doing this correctly right now.
He can't put himself into a lock game scenario. If he bets 9000 or more he can put himself into a crush scenario which gives him the best chance of winning. He is out of the game if he gets it wrong though.
With first and second place at 13200 and 11000 there is a crush scenario and second place can bet 0 dollars to win the game on a miss if third place is not a factor.
If he bets 5300 or more he drops to 5500 and he can no longer cover second place. He can bet between 2400 and 5300 to take the lead without dropping him out of contention.
If he bets less than 2400 he doesn't take the lead and he is still trailing in a close game going into final jeopardy.
If he bets between 2400 and 5300 he can take the lead and if he misses he is still in a position to win by luck.
If he bets between 5300 and 9000 he can take the lead but he is out of the game if he misses.
If he bets more than 9000 he takes the lead and has a crush game.
His best wager is to bet more than 9000. A close second bet is to wager between 2400 and 5300.
His chances of winning are pretty uniform regardless of what he bets. His bet isn't really that important in this scenario.
Also: None of the above analysis matters at all because Kate had established a pattern of betting everything regardless of the scenario. If you assume Kate is going to bet everything you should bet between 2400 and 8600 to try to take the lead but leave yourself with a win off of a triple stumper if you miss the DD.