Friday, December 22, 2017 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

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badgerfellow
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Re: Friday, December 22, 2017 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by badgerfellow » Fri Dec 22, 2017 8:56 pm

jgroub wrote:
Fri Dec 22, 2017 8:44 pm
hscer wrote:
Fri Dec 22, 2017 8:07 pm
Even ignoring the strategic element, huge DD wagers are really good for the game.
Agreed. Very ballsy bets in both cases, and not ignoring the strategic element, they were the right strategy in both cases.
And given her interview plus fearless wagering, I wonder if she was tempted to clavin the "Record Labels" FJ (I know, the game wasn't locked).
Didn't she Clavin it, though? She only needed to bet $2201 to top a double-up by Johnny. But more importantly, the better wagering strategy is NOT to do a double-up precisely because first is guarding against that bet.

Let's say that Donna makes the $2201 bet to double up Johnny plus one. If she gets it wrong, Donna's at $30,399. If Johnny does the double up, gets it right, he wins, she loses. That's one way to go. But many betting strategies say that the double-up from second is not the best way to go. because first place is expecting it and guarding against it, so that the double up will do you no good either way.

One of the other correct bets from second place is NOT to do the double up, precisely because first place should be guarding against it. And again, the leader should know this as well. From Johnny's position, he could have bet, say $5000 for some additional scratch. This would have gotten him to $22,400 if he were right, and kept him ahead of a double-up by Zach if he had been wrong.

If Johnny did that, and Donna bets her $13,000 and misses, she's down to $19,600 and loses; while with the $2201 bet, she wins either way. I say she Clavined it. Can someone explain to me how she didn't?
The game is a crush in favor of Donna; her minimum bet needed to win would require Johnny to basically go all in to win. The only way Johnny would win, then, is if Donna misses Final and he is correct. Knowing this, Donna could wager more than the normal cover bet, so as long as she doesn't allow for Zach to get back in the game. In this game, an incorrect response would still leave her at $19,600, well above the double of Zach's score.

ETA: Incidentally, an incorrect response from Donna would have still given her a win if Johnny wagered $2199 or lower.

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Re: Friday, December 22, 2017 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by Category 13 » Fri Dec 22, 2017 9:41 pm

I really hated to see Johnny get ousted, but it couldn't have been by a more delightful contestant. Love her non assuming personality.

I was lost on FJ as I couldn't even remember for sure what U2's original record label was (I think it was Capitol). I'm a crackerjack on record labels of artists from the 60s and 70s but this was out of my league.

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Re: Friday, December 22, 2017 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by davey » Fri Dec 22, 2017 9:44 pm

I agree that "expel" was probably the expected response."Respire" is not as accurate, with no requirement of force.
Even if the idiom was female only, I doubt they would have eagerly exposed the Cheyenne as sexist..."spouse" is fine...
I spent the :30 trying to figure out how the thousand pounds affected the name...not at all, it turned out... :roll:

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Re: Friday, December 22, 2017 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by Ironhorse » Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:08 pm

davey wrote:
Fri Dec 22, 2017 9:44 pm
I agree that "expel" was probably the expected response."Respire" is not as accurate, with no requirement of force.
Even if the idiom was female only, I doubt they would have eagerly exposed the Cheyenne as sexist..."spouse" is fine...
I spent the :30 trying to figure out how the thousand pounds affected the name...not at all, it turned out... :roll:
I too fixated on the monetary amount. That led me down the false trail of figuring out how that would work with MGM records, thinking of M as a Roman numeral.
Never been on J!, but once won a knockoff version that aired on local access TV.

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Re: Friday, December 22, 2017 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by davey » Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:16 pm

Ironhorse wrote:
Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:08 pm
davey wrote:
Fri Dec 22, 2017 9:44 pm
I agree that "expel" was probably the expected response."Respire" is not as accurate, with no requirement of force.
Even if the idiom was female only, I doubt they would have eagerly exposed the Cheyenne as sexist..."spouse" is fine...
I spent the :30 trying to figure out how the thousand pounds affected the name...not at all, it turned out... :roll:
I too fixated on the monetary amount. That led me down the false trail of figuring out how that would work with MGM records, thinking of M as a Roman numeral.
I tried to come up with one starting with K....The only one I came up with was K-Pop, which sounds like it could be a label, but it's been taken... :oops:

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Re: Friday, December 22, 2017 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by Volante » Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:34 pm

MinnesotaMyron wrote:
Fri Dec 22, 2017 3:11 pm
MarkBarrett wrote:
Fri Dec 22, 2017 2:33 pm
When I saw RECORD LABELS for the FJ! category I was not optimistic. No such luck for the clue to have been the LA building for Capitol Records or Beatles to Granny Smith. I wrote “Kin” and switched to Reggae to have something on the paper. Somewhere I must have heard of the label for Marley & U2, but not my kind of clue.
Should have been paying closer attention to LearnedLeague ;) . I missed it then (much to my ex-disk jockey mortification), but I sure wasn't going to miss it now.

https://learnedleague.com/question.php?73&6&5
That must've been the crevasse I pulled the response out of, as I got it in about 10 seconds (did not get it during LL73). Very strange what sticks sometimes.
Bamaman wrote:
Fri Dec 22, 2017 5:20 pm
Minor nitpick...Don Knotts left The Andy Griffith Show after the last B&W season and wasn’t in the color era, though he did make a few guest appearances.
So...he did appear on the show after it went to color?

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Re: Friday, December 22, 2017 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by seaborgium » Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:42 pm

Island was a doubtful guess on LearnedLeague for me earlier this year, and an absolute certainty tonight.

I bet Donna's $45,600 is the second highest single-day total for a woman; it clears Larissa's day 1 total but falls short of Maria Wenglinsky's second game.

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Re: Friday, December 22, 2017 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by Peter the accountant » Fri Dec 22, 2017 11:14 pm

Golf wrote:
Fri Dec 22, 2017 7:34 pm
That did not need to be broached.

That was an awesome game to watch. Good for her on the DD's and then FJ in a strong category.
I owe everyone here an apology. Clearly, my comment did not come across in the way I intended.

I was trying to make a comparison between Donna and Austin. I saw some similarities in their game play and tried to show that in a humorous way. I failed.

I apologize for my insensitivity.
--Peter

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Re: Friday, December 22, 2017 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by Bamaman » Fri Dec 22, 2017 11:43 pm

Ironhorse wrote:
Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:08 pm
davey wrote:
Fri Dec 22, 2017 9:44 pm
I agree that "expel" was probably the expected response."Respire" is not as accurate, with no requirement of force.
Even if the idiom was female only, I doubt they would have eagerly exposed the Cheyenne as sexist..."spouse" is fine...
I spent the :30 trying to figure out how the thousand pounds affected the name...not at all, it turned out... :roll:
I too fixated on the monetary amount. That led me down the false trail of figuring out how that would work with MGM records, thinking of M as a Roman numeral.
The money was a major red herring.

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Re: Friday, December 22, 2017 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by Elijah Baley » Sat Dec 23, 2017 12:01 am

Johnny is cute but Donna was rocking it with style and sass. Hope she sticks around for a while. Either way, she’ll make it fun.

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Re: Friday, December 22, 2017 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by This Is Kirk! » Sat Dec 23, 2017 12:17 am

Peter the accountant wrote:
Fri Dec 22, 2017 11:14 pm
Golf wrote:
Fri Dec 22, 2017 7:34 pm
That did not need to be broached.

That was an awesome game to watch. Good for her on the DD's and then FJ in a strong category.
I owe everyone here an apology. Clearly, my comment did not come across in the way I intended.

I was trying to make a comparison between Donna and Austin. I saw some similarities in their game play and tried to show that in a humorous way. I failed.

I apologize for my insensitivity.
I don't think you've got anything to apologize for. There were some similarities for sure.

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Re: Friday, December 22, 2017 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by Lefty » Sat Dec 23, 2017 12:46 am

This Is Kirk! wrote:
Sat Dec 23, 2017 12:17 am
Peter the accountant wrote:
Fri Dec 22, 2017 11:14 pm
I owe everyone here an apology. Clearly, my comment did not come across in the way I intended.

I don't think you've got anything to apologize for. There were some similarities for sure.
I don't think you said anything wrong, either, except that if Austin has died and been reincarnated, he couldn't be already as old as Donna. Perhaps he can't even have been born yet, depending on when ensoulment takes place.

I also got this in LL, as a fairly confident guess, but I'm not sure I got it in thirty seconds that time.
I'm smart and I want respect.

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Re: Friday, December 22, 2017 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by jeff6286 » Sat Dec 23, 2017 1:40 am

jgroub wrote:
Fri Dec 22, 2017 8:44 pm
hscer wrote:
Fri Dec 22, 2017 8:07 pm
Even ignoring the strategic element, huge DD wagers are really good for the game.
Agreed. Very ballsy bets in both cases, and not ignoring the strategic element, they were the right strategy in both cases.
And given her interview plus fearless wagering, I wonder if she was tempted to clavin the "Record Labels" FJ (I know, the game wasn't locked).
Didn't she Clavin it, though? She only needed to bet $2201 to top a double-up by Johnny. But more importantly, the better wagering strategy is NOT to do a double-up precisely because first is guarding against that bet.

Let's say that Donna makes the $2201 bet to double up Johnny plus one. If she gets it wrong, Donna's at $30,399. If Johnny does the double up, gets it right, he wins, she loses. That's one way to go. But many betting strategies say that the double-up from second is not the best way to go. because first place is expecting it and guarding against it, so that the double up will do you no good either way.

One of the other correct bets from second place is NOT to do the double up, precisely because first place should be guarding against it. And again, the leader should know this as well. From Johnny's position, he could have bet, say $5000 for some additional scratch. This would have gotten him to $22,400 if he were right, and kept him ahead of a double-up by Zach if he had been wrong.

If Johnny did that, and Donna bets her $13,000 and misses, she's down to $19,600 and loses; while with the $2201 bet, she wins either way. I say she Clavined it. Can someone explain to me how she didn't?
badgerfellow addressed some of your points, but I think the primary problem with the logic you're proposing for Johnny is that it's basically saying "I need Donna to miss it in order to win, therefore I shouldn't try to win." The vast majority of the time, a player in Donna's spot is going to bet $2,201 or a number very close to that. Therefore any wager under $13,000 by Johnny essentially throws in the towel. You're suggesting he throw away a chance to win up to $34,800 in order to ensure he wins $2,000 instead of $1,000. Doesn't really seem like an optimal play to me.

Donna's wager is risk-free as long as Johnny bets rationally. It's true that if Johnny were to play for second and bet somewhere around $6,799, his maximum wager to keep 3rd locked out, then Donna's aggressive bet could lose her the game if she's wrong and Johnny is right. But I don't see any reason she would think this is likely. As long as Johnny is playing to win, she's free to bet as much as $21,799 without lowering her chances of winning one bit. A Clavin is a very specific definition, taking a 100% chance of winning and lowering it to...less than 100%. In this case you could say her chances are 75% or so and maybe she lowered them to 74% or 73% with the big wager, but nothing significant.

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Re: Friday, December 22, 2017 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by opusthepenguin » Sat Dec 23, 2017 6:19 am

Lefty wrote:
Sat Dec 23, 2017 12:46 am
I don't think you said anything wrong, either, except that if Austin has died and been reincarnated, he couldn't be already as old as Donna. Perhaps he can't even have been born yet, depending on when ensoulment takes place.
Some time after middle school at the earliest.

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Re: Friday, December 22, 2017 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by alietr » Sat Dec 23, 2017 8:25 am

I've always said I have instant street cred in any Third World country by virtue of having seen Bob Marley live. Instaget for this former DJ.

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Re: Friday, December 22, 2017 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by threearruda » Sat Dec 23, 2017 8:33 am

SMH at Alex... "that's the record so far this season for one day".

Could've done without some of Donna's commentary but she certainly comes across as amiable and pleasant - and she's good at the game! Happy to see someone else went to the Austin Rogers school of wagering, and looking forward to seeing what her follow-up is on Monday.

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Re: Friday, December 22, 2017 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by hscer » Sat Dec 23, 2017 9:52 am

since multiple people have mentioned it, I wonder if Alex confused "this season" with "since the TOC."
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Re: Friday, December 22, 2017 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by Bamaman » Sat Dec 23, 2017 10:33 am

Weren’t some of Austin’s games recorded before the summer break? That may have been why Alex forgot it was during this season.

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Re: Friday, December 22, 2017 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by seaborgium » Sat Dec 23, 2017 10:35 am

Bamaman wrote:
Sat Dec 23, 2017 10:33 am
Weren’t some of Austin’s games recorded before the summer break? That may have been why Alex forgot it was during this season.
Very good point.

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Re: Friday, December 22, 2017 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by BigDaddyMatty » Sat Dec 23, 2017 12:35 pm

opusthepenguin wrote:
Sat Dec 23, 2017 6:19 am
Lefty wrote:
Sat Dec 23, 2017 12:46 am
I don't think you said anything wrong, either, except that if Austin has died and been reincarnated, he couldn't be already as old as Donna. Perhaps he can't even have been born yet, depending on when ensoulment takes place.
Some time after middle school at the earliest.
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